ASICMINER Speculation Thread

[glendall]

I'm pretty optimistic that the hash rate falling is a good thing.  It is for some purpose or plan towards increasing the hash rate, and it will only be a temporary thing.

Why do I think that? F.C.  The dude is reliable IMHO. If anyone knows what they are doing, has a plan, and has proved themselves, it's F.C.

I think with all the competition now a-days , that AM will unlikely ever have the dominance they did with their early lead into the ASIC market. That said, I still think AM will do great, and has a bright future... I'm eagerly checking the forums like twice a day to see if there are any updates.

[nousfeed]

With the franchising, does anyone know whats happening here? Is FC selling/leasing old blades at discount to get other people to mine for him?
Or is something completely different?

[mechs]

My guess is Asicminer is going to fall behind with all the new competition for gen 2.  However, I am not so confident as to try and short AM.  Fact is, Friedcat has an great track record and although I am not willing to buy AM now, he is not a man I am willing to bet against either. Staying on the sidelines at this points.

[velacreations]

I think the Labcoin fallout will probably build some demand for AM in the next week. 

It would be nice if FC had some great news for us, though.

[romerun]

what's going on with labcoin ? so many pages

[superduh]

what's going on with labcoin ? so many pages

noone actually knows.

[velacreations]

what's going on with labcoin ? so many pages

noone actually knows.

I do.

They lied about starting to hash several days ago.  Today, they post pics of unassembled hardware, after claiming to be on schedule several times. 

After many lies, they basically tell shareholders to hold until the end of October.

Share price crashed from .0035 to .0015 within a few hours, with hundreds of thousands of shares being sold.

Basically, they imploded.

[runeks]

Not to mention that they can't even explain why their PCBs look weird, and the alleged mining chips in the picture don't add up with the specification they've posted previously: https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=263445.msg3152956;topicseen#msg3152956

Looks very suspicious indeed.

[tarmi]

Not to mention that they can't even explain why their PCBs look weird, and the alleged mining chips in the picture don't add up with the specification they've posted previously: https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=263445.msg3152956;topicseen#msg3152956

Looks very suspicious indeed.

+1

to me this picture of chips and PCB-s looks like a 3d printed box.

[velacreations]

Not to mention that they can't even explain why their PCBs look weird, and the alleged mining chips in the picture don't add up with the specification they've posted previously: https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=263445.msg3152956;topicseen#msg3152956

Looks very suspicious indeed.

+1

they didn't explain anything, and that's why the share price dropped and over a million shares were sold yesterday.The update was supposed to verify their claims, but instead, it revealed what many suspected: their claims were baseless. 

Anyway, back to AM.  Looks like the has rate is back around 34 TH/s.  I was surprised by those 176 shares being sold this morning, I guess someone got nervous or is trying to play the waves on Labcoin.

[velacreations]

This was posted in the main thread:

I have send fiedcat a pm asking fo the timeframe.

This is the response I received.  Can't say I understand it, but it sounds like September 16 there will be more info or a new post to clarify:  

Hi,

Here is the timeline:

Now - continuously supply of block erupter USBs
September 16 - restocking of new blades
October 7 - releasing of newer products

We would compensate with new blades or a combination of the above three. But anyhow we will start compensating(collecting information and shipping) at September 16.

Best regards,

friedcat

Does anyone know what this part means: "October 7 - releasing of newer products"

newer products?  Is that like G1 V3 blades?  Or G2?  I know assembly for G2 was planned for this time...

[binaryFate]

If this October 7 stuff gets confirmed, it might be the last moments to get cheap shares 

[velacreations]

If this October 7 stuff gets confirmed, it might be the last moments to get cheap shares 

yes, for real.

Does anyone have the link/quote to the timeline?  I seem to remember Gen2 would be assembled Sep/Oct

[Vycid]

If this October 7 stuff gets confirmed, it might be the last moments to get cheap shares  

These are only cheap shares relative to the most recent high.

Relative to the IPO these shares are ludicrously expensive.

And from the perspective of fundamental analysis, they are overvalued even if FC delivers as expected. The shares are priced on that assumption.

Investment lesson #1: Just because something had a high price in the past, does not mean it will ever regain that price in the future.

Anyway, it sounds like we should expect an announcement in 48-72 hours, or else that PM was intended to pump up shares.

[velacreations]

And from the perspective of fundamental analysis, they are overvalued even if FC delivers as expected. The shares are priced on that assumption.

it depends on what happens, but if Oct 7 is truly Gen 2, then he is way ahead of competition.  I think the market will see shares as undervalued.

[JimiQ84]

And from the perspective of fundamental analysis, they are overvalued even if FC delivers as expected. The shares are priced on that assumption.

it depends on what happens, but if Oct 7 is truly Gen 2, then he is way ahead of competition.  I think the market will see shares as undervalued.

and way ahead of expectation. Because according to previous timeline, we are expecting 2nd gen hashing in december at best.

And maybe friedcat chose this channel for the info just to piss Vycid off. And it's working

[Vycid]

And from the perspective of fundamental analysis, they are overvalued even if FC delivers as expected. The shares are priced on that assumption.

it depends on what happens, but if Oct 7 is truly Gen 2, then he is way ahead of competition.  I think the market will see shares as undervalued.

and way ahead of expectation. Because according to previous timeline, we are expecting 2nd gen hashing in december at best.

Which is yet another reason to be skeptical of an unverified PM from a forum no-name.

And maybe friedcat chose this channel for the info just to piss Vycid off. And it's working

You want your company run by someone that hands out inside info in the hopes of pissing people off?

My understanding is that FC is very professional. I will be even more bearish if it turns out he isn't.

[velacreations]

and way ahead of expectation. Because according to previous timeline, we are expecting 2nd gen hashing in december at best.

I can't remember the exact timeline, but I seem to recall something about Gen2 being assembled in Sep/Oct.  Does anyone have that little 3 line schedule?

[Vycid]

and way ahead of expectation. Because according to previous timeline, we are expecting 2nd gen hashing in december at best.

I can't remember the exact timeline, but I seem to recall something about Gen2 being assembled in Sep/Oct.  Does anyone have that little 3 line schedule?

https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=99497.msg2788821#msg2788821

Gen2 is Nov-Dec.

Sept-Nov is just more Gen1 hardware sales.

[velacreations]

https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=99497.msg2788821#msg2788821

Gen2 is Nov-Dec.

Sept-Nov is just more Gen1 hardware sales.

ok, right, thanks for that.

So, if this PM is true (remains to be seen), the Oct 7 will be Gen1 v3