Incoming Avalon News 8/9/2013

[KS]

(...)
The only savior would be if we see a massive rise in BTC/USD price which, to my surprise, has not moved to reflect the change in difficulty.
(...)

One is an indication of the other but correlation is not causality. I don't think they will stay coupled during the ASIC-led difficulty upswing.

In which case miners will be soon forced to switch off to reduce the difficulty.

Why would they do that? They just got their ASICs.

Those ahead of the curve have made a killing, those investing right now will probably lose a lot of money and then we're back to cutthroat margins, which means the price for ASICs will go down and difficulty won't matter that much when you can afford the equipment again. The pain is now.

[1714478552]

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[smoothie]

...and difficulty is about to jump 10 million which is about 25% increase.

Sucks to be a miner waiting for chips. Well just a person waiting I mean.

[MinermanNC]

money from nothing and your chips for free...I want my - I want my - I want my - BTC,,,,

I think I heard that song on the radio today

Ain't got a clue as to which song you're in reference to, but I did find this dandy tune: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2AA64eCt2zs

Ya that may be more like it,,,so far away...

anyways,,,,

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=iwDDswGsJ60
Listen to near the end,,,I swear thats what they are saying...lol

[erk]

Why would they do that? They just got their ASICs.

Those ahead of the curve have made a killing, those investing right now will probably lose a lot of money and then we're back to cutthroat margins, which means the price for ASICs will go down and difficulty won't matter that much when you can afford the equipment again. The pain is now.

The point is that the Avlon chips haven't arrived, so they haven't just got their ASICs. Do you realistically see any of the people mining before late September who are waiting on their chips?  By that time, the ROI will be negative, and as I mentioned before not long until the mining is no longer covering electricity costs. If you keep mining and you are not covering electricity costs, that's kind of silly.

The difficulty has doubled in the past 30days. Is there any reason why it wont be well over 100mill by the end of September? More likely closer to 200mill.

[MinermanNC]

Why would they do that? They just got their ASICs.

Those ahead of the curve have made a killing, those investing right now will probably lose a lot of money and then we're back to cutthroat margins, which means the price for ASICs will go down and difficulty won't matter that much when you can afford the equipment again. The pain is now.

The point is that the Avlon chips haven't arrived, so they haven't just got their ASICs. Do you realistically see any of the people mining before late September who are waiting on their chips?  By that time, the ROI will be negative, and as I mentioned before not long until the mining is no longer covering electricity costs. If you keep mining and you are not covering electricity costs, that's kind of silly.

I have said all along in 6 months only the big time heavy hitter$ will be left standing in this game, everyone else will go broke trying to keep up

EDIT: Only saving grace will be BTC going to 200 and up.... which it could and is why Im staying in the game a little longer....

[Flying Hellfish]

money from nothing and your chips for free...I want my - I want my - I want my - BTC,,,,

I think I heard that song on the radio today

Ain't got a clue as to which song you're in reference to, but I did find this dandy tune: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2AA64eCt2zs

Ya that may be more like it,,,so far away...

anyways,,,,

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=iwDDswGsJ60
Listen to near the end,,,I swear thats what they are saying...lol

It's definitely not what they're saying LOL, replace chips with chicks and BTC with MTV

[bitcoin carpenter]

Well at 250 mil I dont see any asics that will be making much roi unless the price of btc follows difficulty
So we get two more months of asic investing and preorders until sifficulty starts to level off or btc prices skyrocket....
Either way I wish I would have just held my btc

[Boxman90]

Agreed, pretty sad to see if I'm being honest. One of the reasons I got into BTC was because of the community spirit and everyone working together for the same cause.

The group buy organisers have put a lot of time and work in and put themselves on the line, they don't deserve to be blamed for this at all.

I also know that organisers have been trying to contact Yifu.

Then the least they could do is show they're the better man, and keep us updated instead of seemingly disappearing form the face of the earth as well. Even if there's nothing to tell, him telling every few days he has tried x to contact Yifu but it failed, would show he's at least busy with it.

[MinermanNC]

money from nothing and your chips for free...I want my - I want my - I want my - BTC,,,,

I think I heard that song on the radio today

Ain't got a clue as to which song you're in reference to, but I did find this dandy tune: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2AA64eCt2zs

Ya that may be more like it,,,so far away...

anyways,,,,

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=iwDDswGsJ60
Listen to near the end,,,I swear thats what they are saying...lol

It's definitely not what they're saying LOL, replace chips with chicks and BTC with MTV

Just listened closely again,,,your right! sweet

Im sure yifu has plenty of both right about now....

[warhawk187]

Yifu fucked us all with his 'No BS chips in 9-10 weeks' policy. Its a worse ploy than BFL. BFL honestly is just very poorly managed, whereas Avalon is destroying their reputation at the same rate the difficulty is rising. Well I think its time 'No BS' became true. I'm not an engineer, just a web developer waiting on 12 Bitburners, but if I were designing Avalon boards, I would definitely consider trying to team up with all the other Avalon developers, and see if a prototype board with Bitfury chips can become a reality. (BFL, even with their better chips are still a gamble due to supply issues). I understand that this would probably require starting from scratch, but if the boards are already a sunk cost at this point, along with the chips themselves even more, it might be worth a shot...maybe we can call them Plan (B)itfury.

...That and a class action lawsuit against Yifu/Bitsyncom. Legal threats might be our only option soon, its been 5 weeks, even BFL at least kept telling people 'fuck off, were working on it'. Yes, I understand the implications and the waste of time and $ it would be to try and organize a lawsuit, but perhaps the threat of jailtime for international advance fee fraud to the tune of over $14,000,000 might be the kick in the ass Avalon/yifu/bitsyncom/bunch of scumbags need. All the talented developers here are getting all the shit because of Avalons increasingly fraudulent behavior.

Just saying....

[Dalkore]

Unfortunately, Avalon chips are so inefficient, that the delay means negative ROI by the time you get your boards built and mining. Even if Yufi decided to refund everyone and give you the chips for free!

The recent difficulty jump has made any ASIC over 3watts per GH/s not viable unless you get dirt cheap electricity. Which means ASICminer, Avalon, BFL are now all pretty worthless, and orders should be cancelled until a more efficient chip is available. The only savior would be if we see a massive rise in BTC/USD price which, to my surprise, has not moved to reflect the change in difficulty. I expected BTC/USD to be back around $200 now, with miners refusing to sell new coins for any less.

The inability for ASICs to cover electricity costs is a serious issue. Look out ASICminer shareholders!

Here is a mining ROI calculator with presets for most popular.

http://mining.thegenesisblock.com don't forget to set your local electricity price correctly first. The default is 15cents/kWh mine is 24cents!

Come host with us.  This is exactly why I setup shop with .02/Kwh electricity.  You will need to long term hashing timeframe to mine back your investments.   We are live and ready to roll. 

[powpow]

Ok, Avalon - difficulty is over 50,000,000 - you are now cleared to ship the chips - good job maximizing mining profits before the 37% increase.

[dddbtc]

Unfortunately, Avalon chips are so inefficient, that the delay means negative ROI by the time you get your boards built and mining. Even if Yufi decided to refund everyone and give you the chips for free!

The recent difficulty jump has made any ASIC over 3watts per GH/s not viable unless you get dirt cheap electricity. Which means ASICminer, Avalon, BFL are now all pretty worthless, and orders should be cancelled until a more efficient chip is available. The only savior would be if we see a massive rise in BTC/USD price which, to my surprise, has not moved to reflect the change in difficulty. I expected BTC/USD to be back around $200 now, with miners refusing to sell new coins for any less.

The inability for ASICs to cover electricity costs is a serious issue. Look out ASICminer shareholders!

Here is a mining ROI calculator with presets for most popular.

http://mining.thegenesisblock.com don't forget to set your local electricity price correctly first. The default is 15cents/kWh mine is 24cents!

Come host with us.  This is exactly why I setup shop with .02/Kwh electricity.  You will need to long term hashing timeframe to mine back your investments.   We are live and ready to roll. 

This is what my plan has been the whole time.  I've got ~180GH/s of the first gen avalon chips on order.  I bought almost all of them when BTC was ~$60/BTC It was a good plan, fuck Yifu for being late, but I don't have the time or energy to formulate a plan B.

[massnerder]

The point is that the Avlon chips haven't arrived, so they haven't just got their ASICs. Do you realistically see any of the people mining before late September who are waiting on their chips?  By that time, the ROI will be negative, and as I mentioned before not long until the mining is no longer covering electricity costs. If you keep mining and you are not covering electricity costs, that's kind of silly.

The difficulty has doubled in the past 30days. Is there any reason why it wont be well over 100mill by the end of September? More likely closer to 200mill.

Even at difficulty of 500mil and no change in BTC price, the gen1 chips will pull in a bit over twice the cost of electricity (for me at least, 7 cents/kwh).  The problem you stated is correct though, if the chips don't arrive in the next week or 2 tops, then we may never break even on cost of the actual hardware unless difficulty levels out or BTC price rises.

[Minor Miner]

The point is that the Avlon chips haven't arrived, so they haven't just got their ASICs. Do you realistically see any of the people mining before late September who are waiting on their chips?  By that time, the ROI will be negative, and as I mentioned before not long until the mining is no longer covering electricity costs. If you keep mining and you are not covering electricity costs, that's kind of silly.
The difficulty has doubled in the past 30days. Is there any reason why it wont be well over 100mill by the end of September? More likely closer to 200mill.

Even at difficulty of 500mil and no change in BTC price, the gen1 chips will pull in a bit over twice the cost of electricity (for me at least, 7 cents/kwh).  The problem you stated is correct though, if the chips don't arrive in the next week or 2 tops, then we may never break even on cost of the actual hardware unless difficulty levels out or BTC price rises.

Finally, someone explains why "miners will not shut down".   The cost of the equipment is SUNK.  So, while everyone may never get their investment back, they will still mine until they cannot get enough coins to pay their electric bill (or beyond that if they live in a dorm or steal work's power or they live in mom's basement).

[SebastianJu]

A info on the side. One of my groupbuymembers reached yifu by phone. He didnt say news, only that all batch 3 miners are shipped and that in the next weeks the chip batches will ship but its a good thing that he communicates a bit. It would be even better to now solve the refunds of batch 3 miners and solve the tickets when he doesnt have to do anyway than waiting.

*lol* Difficulty jumped in 30 days 100% nearly (94%). The previous diff update jumped to 75%, that before 62% only. And now 94%... great.

how much coins does your 100 chips generate a day after this jump ?

I didnt run it all the time and over night i didnt knew that cgminer on windows isnt keeping windows alive like a video would do. So my notebook went to hibernate after 45 mins. And today i tested most of the time the overclocking... But so far i have collected 0.17BTC and i mine at 440MHz now.

The motherfucker is online every god damn day (https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?action=profile;u=68196) but he chooses not to reply or give more information.

We. Are. Being. Played. Big. Time.

And the worst thing is you all swallow it like willing slaves. "hurr let's wait it out". NO. Pressure your group buy admins to start demanding refunds ASAP.

Refund is not needed yet. The chips in a miner will still ROI. So my members are parted regarding refund. If Yifu delivers we will happily show yifu our back and try to mine the investment back. But refund now looks like losing even more.

[erk]

Even at difficulty of 500mil and no change in BTC price, the gen1 chips will pull in a bit over twice the cost of electricity (for me at least, 7 cents/kwh).  The problem you stated is correct though, if the chips don't arrive in the next week or 2 tops, then we may never break even on cost of the actual hardware unless difficulty levels out or BTC price rises.

It's all about the BTC/USD price, back in 2011 I was mining BTC on a single HD5770 card, the system was hardly covering the electricity cost, so I switched off the mining. Had a known how much BTC would be worth today, I would have keep mining even if it became a small loss, and made it all back this year.

[Vigil]

I think they have been trying, Yifu is a difficult man to get in touch with at the moment.

No, they are not. I'm in steamboats group-buy, and he is doing fuck-all. He's making maybe 1 update every two weeks, saying "we'll wait". I hate to say it but his failure to reply to emails and keep the topics up-to-date, tells me that even the group buy organizers might be taking a similar route.

Everybody needs to step up in their group buys and show the organizers that we mean fucking business right now. We are all losing more and more money and we're way past the point where it would even be sensible to consider investing in these chips.

This makes me wonder what is really going on. Because, you would think the group buy leaders would be all over this but strangely they are not except for Bicknellski. Meanwhile hashrate is jumping through the roof somehow without any chips getting out.

I have a feeling that there is some delays for the masses while the few who are privy are getting their fill while they can. Your group buy leaders may be in on the gig.

The point is that the Avlon chips haven't arrived, so they haven't just got their ASICs. Do you realistically see any of the people mining before late September who are waiting on their chips?  By that time, the ROI will be negative, and as I mentioned before not long until the mining is no longer covering electricity costs. If you keep mining and you are not covering electricity costs, that's kind of silly.

The difficulty has doubled in the past 30days. Is there any reason why it wont be well over 100mill by the end of September? More likely closer to 200mill.

Even at difficulty of 500mil and no change in BTC price, the gen1 chips will pull in a bit over twice the cost of electricity (for me at least, 7 cents/kwh).  The problem you stated is correct though, if the chips don't arrive in the next week or 2 tops, then we may never break even on cost of the actual hardware unless difficulty levels out or BTC price rises.

If you need BTC price to rise to break even then you are losing because you were better off buying BTC. Although, when most of us were thinking about purchasing these, the BTC price was $150 or so.

[erk]

This makes me wonder what is really going on. Because, you would think the group buy leaders would be all over this but strangely they are not except for Bicknellski. Meanwhile hashrate is jumping through the roof somehow without any chips getting out.

I have a feeling that there is some delays for the masses while the few who are privy are getting their fill while they can. Your group buy leaders may be in on the gig.

BFL have been shipping out a lot of 500GH/s units the past few weeks, and Avalon batch #3 are mining, but that's still tip of the iceberg compared to what's coming online Sep/Oct.

[Stack]