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Author Topic: Analysis  (Read 916657 times)
Xiaoxiao
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March 18, 2015, 12:49:49 AM
 #2661

Luc- what happened to your confident assessment that it will hit at least 310-400 or whatever. 

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masterluc
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March 18, 2015, 12:50:50 AM
 #2662

208 - bearish
450 - bullish

Everything between - undefined, hehe. Pretty wide range  Grin

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March 18, 2015, 12:52:49 AM
 #2663

Luc- what happened to your confident assessment that it will hit at least 310-400 or whatever.  

Rise was too slow, too low volume. Bearish divergence appeared earlier than price went to safe zone.

Morecoin Freeman
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March 18, 2015, 01:04:59 AM
 #2664

I agree the rally was too weak, I've addressed this a couple of times in the past few days also.

I'd say we go down $300 was the top. Also most profitable direction for the whales since there will be more margin calls to trigger than in the other direction.
Mmm I have a positive outlook on bitcoin but my interpretation right now is that demand is stalling.
This is nothing like last summer's rally from $420 to $680.

For now I think we will not go past $300 for quite some time. But hey this is bitcoin so anything could happen still...

I'm pretty confident the bear market will continue for some longer. No big deal for the day traders but some long term investors might get disappointed. Hang in there!

Ask the stranger he knows who you really are.
Xiaoxiao
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March 18, 2015, 01:15:52 AM
 #2665

Luc- what happened to your confident assessment that it will hit at least 310-400 or whatever.  

Rise was too slow, too low volume. Bearish divergence appeared earlier than price went to safe zone.

Yeah I wasn't too thrilled about your bullish assessments.

This recent bounce from 166 barely cracked 300 and now it is tanking.  100 might be more realistic than $400...
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March 18, 2015, 01:39:19 AM
 #2666

Luc- what happened to your confident assessment that it will hit at least 310-400 or whatever.  

Rise was too slow, too low volume. Bearish divergence appeared earlier than price went to safe zone.
So, basically what you're saying is that there wasn't enough bearish coin holders flushed out yet and/or the bulls don't think any more pumps at this current stage will do any good?
masterluc
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March 18, 2015, 04:21:49 PM
 #2667

So, basically what you're saying is that there wasn't enough bearish coin holders flushed out yet and/or the bulls don't think any more pumps at this current stage will do any good?

As long as you research other's coins and thoughts you stay poor.

lebing
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March 18, 2015, 04:42:59 PM
 #2668

So, basically what you're saying is that there wasn't enough bearish coin holders flushed out yet and/or the bulls don't think any more pumps at this current stage will do any good?

As long as you research other's coins and thoughts you stay poor.

I am sure there is some seriously wise info locked in that quote but for the life of me I can't figure what it is.

Bro, do you even blockchain?
-E Voorhees
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yes


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March 18, 2015, 05:17:15 PM
 #2669

So, basically what you're saying is that there wasn't enough bearish coin holders flushed out yet and/or the bulls don't think any more pumps at this current stage will do any good?

As long as you research other's coins and thoughts you stay poor.

I am sure there is some seriously wise info locked in that quote but for the life of me I can't figure what it is.

Go way back in this thread and you will find some guidance.

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DeepOnion
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Pruden
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March 18, 2015, 07:33:21 PM
 #2670

It's just that price and its action is the only thing that matters. When trading it is of no use trying to discern other people's intentions and thoughts. The price action displays them in full view.
michaelGedi
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March 18, 2015, 07:55:56 PM
 #2671

It's just that price and its action is the only thing that matters. When trading it is of no use trying to discern other people's intentions and thoughts. The price action displays them in full view.

makes much more sense, deleting my comment   Wink

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Chef Ramsay
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March 18, 2015, 07:59:06 PM
 #2672

So, basically what you're saying is that there wasn't enough bearish coin holders flushed out yet and/or the bulls don't think any more pumps at this current stage will do any good?

As long as you research other's coins and thoughts you stay poor.
Yeah, I was merely asking from a spectator's standpoint. I hold and do very little trading but was just trying to stoke another opinion into the works. The ups and downs have never really bothered me, I had just accumulated a certain amount of coins I wanted for the long haul and am comfortable with my current position. Of course, I keep adding occasionally in this market.
D05GTO
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March 18, 2015, 08:05:06 PM
 #2673

But are you really Chef Ramsay? Cheesy


 
 
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hdbuck
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March 19, 2015, 12:08:06 AM
 #2674

It's just that price and its action is the only thing that matters. When trading it is of no use trying to discern other people's intentions and thoughts. The price action displays them in full view.

<-- always. ^^
masterluc
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March 19, 2015, 05:43:47 AM
 #2675

So, basically what you're saying is that there wasn't enough bearish coin holders flushed out yet and/or the bulls don't think any more pumps at this current stage will do any good?

As long as you research other's coins and thoughts you stay poor.

I am sure there is some seriously wise info locked in that quote but for the life of me I can't figure what it is.
Russian thinker Kuzma Prutkov said - It is impossible to comprehend the immensity  Grin

So when you try - you put your time, your money and your energy into black hole. And stay poor whatever you do. Invalid point of applied forces - find another

lebing
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March 19, 2015, 07:59:00 AM
 #2676

So, basically what you're saying is that there wasn't enough bearish coin holders flushed out yet and/or the bulls don't think any more pumps at this current stage will do any good?

As long as you research other's coins and thoughts you stay poor.

I am sure there is some seriously wise info locked in that quote but for the life of me I can't figure what it is.
Russian thinker Kuzma Prutkov said - It is impossible to comprehend the immensity  Grin

So when you try - you put your time, your money and your energy into black hole. And stay poor whatever you do. Invalid point of applied forces - find another

Thank god there are people like Pruden around, lol.

Bro, do you even blockchain?
-E Voorhees
Chef Ramsay
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March 19, 2015, 11:52:25 PM
 #2677

But are you really Chef Ramsay? Cheesy
Haha, I wonder when the man is going to get the "Sir" in front of his name. If I were him I'd have major whale capabilities and I could create my own market analysis that never ends. Grin It's be nice if Ramsay would accept BTC at his upscale restaurants and have that BTC on the front windows which would really stir some great dinner conversations among the elite that dine at these places.
masterluc
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March 23, 2015, 05:08:48 PM
 #2678

I'd like to share some thoughts about altcoins rise-fall-death cycle.

I noticed when Bitcoin enters some long bearish cycle - always appears some fork which starts to rise to btc. NMC, LTC and now DRK. After some time fork dies and next fork appears. So I'll try to analyze this phenomenon.

Let's call next fork "shit".

1. When Bitcoin enters some noticed bearish cycle, people start to be bored. They want permanent rally.
2. Bored people look around and here is a "shit". The same Proof Of Work  shit as Bitcoin, but has some special features.
3. "Oh my god, it's a new paradigm! " - people say and start to sell bitcoin and buy shit. Bitcoin bearish phase accelerates.
4. Meanwhile shit market saturates,  Bitcoin market passing capitulation phase and starts to recover. Bitcoin becomes bullish.
5. People keeping shit - watch for rise of Bitcoin. They move their funds back and create additional bullish acceleration to bitcoin. Shit drops.
6. Bitcoin market saturates and enters correction.
7. Back to point 1.

I call it "small shit cycle", when Bitcoin and shit go in antiphase.

Every alt fork makes few shit cycles and then slowly goes to a toilet pan. Because new alt with "new paradigm" appears and enters it's first shit cycle, it's first step to a pan.

I call it "big shit cycle" - when shit after few cycles goes to a pan and another shit appears.

Meanwhile, every altcoin place is a pan because of "Long fork theorem" which CJDNS founder told me in IRC in 2012.

This is only theoretical thoughts, based on multi year market observations. I hope in some time I'll make a science paper. Hehe.

ElectricMucus
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March 23, 2015, 05:11:12 PM
 #2679

I'd like to share some thoughts about altcoins rise-fall-death cycle.

I noticed when Bitcoin enters some long bearish cycle - always appears some fork which starts to rise to btc. NMC, LTC and now DRK. After some time fork dies and next fork appears. So I'll try to analyze this phenomenon.

Let's call next fork "shit".

1. When Bitcoin enters some noticed bearish cycle, people start to be bored. They want permanent rally.
2. Bored people look around and here is a "shit". The same Proof Of Work  shit as Bitcoin, but has some special features.
3. "Oh my god, it's a new paradigm! " - people say and start to sell bitcoin and buy shit. Bitcoin bearish phase accelerates.
4. Meanwhile shit market saturates,  Bitcoin market passing capitulation phase and starts to recover. Bitcoin becomes bullish.
5. People keeping shit - watch for rise of Bitcoin. They move their funds back and create additional bullish acceleration to bitcoin. Shit drops.
6. Bitcoin market saturates and enters correction.
7. Back to point 1.

I call it "small shit cycle", when Bitcoin and shit go in antiphase.

Every alt fork makes few shit cycles and then slowly goes to a toilet pan. Because new alt with "new paradigm" appears and enters it's first shit cycle, it's first step to a pan.

I call it "big shit cycle" - when shit after few cycles goes to a pan and another shit appears.

Meanwhile, every altcoin place is a pan because of "Long fork theorem" which CJDNS founder told me in IRC in 2012.

This is only theoretical thoughts, based on multi year market observations. I hope in some time I'll make a science paper. Hehe.

Ask this guy:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=3gfntBEI3Aw
masterluc
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March 23, 2015, 05:15:57 PM
 #2680

No, this is very serious economic and psychological since work "Passing through a shit cycle on a wave of greed".

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