Analysis

[wpalczynski]

I am interested as well in what your thoughts are about price movements.  From the charts it looks like it could go either way but somehow I just don't believe it will drop given the imminent release to the public of the Bitcoin ETF next week.

It doesn't really change anything imo because people who knew about bitcoin had the chance to buy bitcoin way before the ETF, and people who don't know about bitcoin won't know about bitcoin because there is an ETF in their brokerage account out of the millions of other funds.  I mean, someone eager to buy bitcoin isn't counting down to the day the ETF will launch so he can buy BTC's.  He would have bought already via circle, coinbase, lbc, stamp, etc a lot earlier.  The big money could buy at anytime via 2nd trust or I believe there is another fund that has huge minimums.

And for us speculators, well we already knew about the ETF a long time ago.

I concur with most of what you wrote however I think there is a very large class of potential investors who would not consider buying anything unless they can do so through their brokerage accounts.  Those same people have been hearing about Bitcoin for a long time now but had no channel to invest, a channel which is acceptable to them.

That ETF could eventually cause some short term rise but overall it's bearish as fuck as it finally gives a chance for all those investors who bought at 600-800 to cut their loses which they were not able to do so far.

I don't think the types of "qualified" investors which made the minimum purchase required for this fund back in the day will be quick to sell at a loss.

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[micalith]

I am interested as well in what your thoughts are about price movements.  From the charts it looks like it could go either way but somehow I just don't believe it will drop given the imminent release to the public of the Bitcoin ETF next week.

It doesn't really change anything imo because people who knew about bitcoin had the chance to buy bitcoin way before the ETF, and people who don't know about bitcoin won't know about bitcoin because there is an ETF in their brokerage account out of the millions of other funds.  I mean, someone eager to buy bitcoin isn't counting down to the day the ETF will launch so he can buy BTC's.  He would have bought already via circle, coinbase, lbc, stamp, etc a lot earlier.  The big money could buy at anytime via 2nd trust or I believe there is another fund that has huge minimums.

And for us speculators, well we already knew about the ETF a long time ago.

I concur with most of what you wrote however I think there is a very large class of potential investors who would not consider buying anything unless they can do so through their brokerage accounts.  Those same people have been hearing about Bitcoin for a long time now but had no channel to invest, a channel which is acceptable to them.

meh this no analysis. more like gossip.

I'd agree with wpalczynski. There is a significant group of people who have known about bitcoin for ages but wouldn't be comfortable putting their money through the class of exchanges we have at the moment.

[hdbuck]

I am interested as well in what your thoughts are about price movements.  From the charts it looks like it could go either way but somehow I just don't believe it will drop given the imminent release to the public of the Bitcoin ETF next week.

It doesn't really change anything imo because people who knew about bitcoin had the chance to buy bitcoin way before the ETF, and people who don't know about bitcoin won't know about bitcoin because there is an ETF in their brokerage account out of the millions of other funds.  I mean, someone eager to buy bitcoin isn't counting down to the day the ETF will launch so he can buy BTC's.  He would have bought already via circle, coinbase, lbc, stamp, etc a lot earlier.  The big money could buy at anytime via 2nd trust or I believe there is another fund that has huge minimums.

And for us speculators, well we already knew about the ETF a long time ago.

I concur with most of what you wrote however I think there is a very large class of potential investors who would not consider buying anything unless they can do so through their brokerage accounts.  Those same people have been hearing about Bitcoin for a long time now but had no channel to invest, a channel which is acceptable to them.

meh this no analysis. more like gossip.

I'd agree with wpalczynski. There is a significant group of people who have known about bitcoin for ages but wouldn't be comfortable putting their money through the class of exchanges we have at the moment.

So what? They'll buy paper shares in sum usg approved fund?
This had nothing to do with bitcoin imho.
I'd go OTC anyway.

[wpalczynski]

I am interested as well in what your thoughts are about price movements.  From the charts it looks like it could go either way but somehow I just don't believe it will drop given the imminent release to the public of the Bitcoin ETF next week.

It doesn't really change anything imo because people who knew about bitcoin had the chance to buy bitcoin way before the ETF, and people who don't know about bitcoin won't know about bitcoin because there is an ETF in their brokerage account out of the millions of other funds.  I mean, someone eager to buy bitcoin isn't counting down to the day the ETF will launch so he can buy BTC's.  He would have bought already via circle, coinbase, lbc, stamp, etc a lot earlier.  The big money could buy at anytime via 2nd trust or I believe there is another fund that has huge minimums.

And for us speculators, well we already knew about the ETF a long time ago.

I concur with most of what you wrote however I think there is a very large class of potential investors who would not consider buying anything unless they can do so through their brokerage accounts.  Those same people have been hearing about Bitcoin for a long time now but had no channel to invest, a channel which is acceptable to them.

meh this no analysis. more like gossip.

I'd agree with wpalczynski. There is a significant group of people who have known about bitcoin for ages but wouldn't be comfortable putting their money through the class of exchanges we have at the moment.

So what? They'll buy paper shares in sum usg approved fund?
This had nothing to do with bitcoin imho.
I'd go OTC anyway.

Going OTC still requires you to 'store' these Bitcoins yourself which for some people due to all the stories in the media might seem like a risky proposition.  These high net worth investors have trusted brokerage firms all their life and I posit they will feel significantly more comfortable with their investment being held in this traditional way instead of a paper wallet or an encrypted HD which in their eyes can be hacked or corrupted due to hardware failures.

Last but certainly not least these legitimate, wallstreet brokerage firms have guarantees for their clients reassuring them that if their investments were lost due to thefts or some sort of hardware failure they are covered by insurance.

I've been known to be a little over-Bullish but I am optimistic about this new class of investors being able to channel their wealth into our ecosystem through traditional investment vehicles.

[CMMPro]

Why are you guys cluttering this thread with posts that are not related to masterluc's writing?

I come here to read what he has to say...not a bunch of chatty housewives gossip.

There are ten thousand other threads here full of losers blabbing about the latest wet dream they had about bitcoin...go find one of those to masterbate each other in.

[dannyspk]

Why are you guys cluttering this thread with posts that are not related to masterluc's writing?

I come here to read what he has to say...not a bunch of chatty housewives gossip.

There are ten thousand other threads here full of losers blabbing about the latest wet dream they had about bitcoin...go find one of those to masterbate each other in.

+1 This had to be said..

[masterluc]

According to strong bearish divergence on daily chart (which price didn't neutralized during weak rally) I see a pretty propabable H&S pattern

[maxll]

So what about on macd cross on your chart?

[LOBSTER]

I am interested as well in what your thoughts Luc are about price movements.  From the charts it looks like it could go either way but somehow I just don't believe it will drop given the imminent release to the public of the Bitcoin ETF next week.

Which ETF? Is the Winklevoss ETF coming now? That'd be great for the Bitcoin price (I hope so far...).

[hdbuck]

I am interested as well in what your thoughts Luc are about price movements.  From the charts it looks like it could go either way but somehow I just don't believe it will drop given the imminent release to the public of the Bitcoin ETF next week.

Which ETF? Is the Winklevoss ETF coming now? That'd be great for the Bitcoin price (I hope so far...).

[masterluc]

According to strong bearish divergence on daily chart (which price didn't neutralized during weak rally) I see a pretty propabable H&S pattern

I see only move above 310 will harm bearish scenario

[Xiaoxiao]

So what about on macd cross on your chart?

The master has spoken. Get ready to get margin called on your longs!

[Okurkabinladin]

Any update? I am one ear.

[Xiaoxiao]

Any update? I am one ear.

Head and shoulder forming, long term bearish, short term also bearish.

[sinner]

Head and shoulder forming, long term bearish, short term also bearish.

how long is long term?  do you see bitcoin ever rising again? are we going to 0?

[hdbuck]

Head and shoulder forming, long term bearish, short term also bearish.

how long is long term?  do you see bitcoin ever rising again? are we going to 0?

Next spike is not likely until halving i'd say. So we prbably got ~1 year to get along with bears.

[masterluc]

Head and shoulder forming, long term bearish, short term also bearish.

how long is long term?  do you see bitcoin ever rising again? are we going to 0?

I said earlier, everything below ~260 looks good to buy in long term. Like everything below 10 was good in 2011. But time frames now wider.

[Okurkabinladin]

Head and shoulder forming, long term bearish, short term also bearish.

how long is long term?  do you see bitcoin ever rising again? are we going to 0?

I said earlier, everything below ~260 looks good to buy in long term. Like everything below 10 was good in 2011. But time frames now wider.

I think, that clears everything up, no price spikes yet.

[Xiaoxiao]

According to strong bearish divergence on daily chart (which price didn't neutralized during weak rally) I see a pretty propabable H&S pattern

Right on mastluc! The head and shoulder has formed.

[bassclef]

H&S volume does not measure up. Volume has steadily decreased on the way down from the head and the right shoulder where it should increase. OBV has been making higher highs during the same period.