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Author Topic: Analysis  (Read 935735 times)
Miz4r
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March 02, 2015, 12:27:27 PM
 #2621

@masterluc, I am curious why you use a linear chart to determine a break out of the falling wedge. Wouldn't a log chart be better? I have to admit I learned a lot from your analysis, like others I never could have imagined the bear market to last this long but you correctly predicted it. You deserve respect for that. It helped me understand market cycles better and see things in a larger perspective. Also I agree there is a chance that we could still be in an abc correction in which case we will still see lower lows after hitting 350-450 area. I am definitely hedging myself against that possibility but my main bet is on that we're seeing the start of a new bullish cycle right now. Cool

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masterluc
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March 02, 2015, 01:24:07 PM
 #2622

Log chart scale works buggy in SierraChart under Linux lol  Grin

oda.krell
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March 02, 2015, 02:05:03 PM
 #2623

One of the strangest moments I had on this forum was when luc posted something like "Here's my analysis. Maybe not the best one, artillery shelling not that far away messes up my concentration."  o_O

(EDIT) Also: your latest detailed posts are much appreciated. Interesting especially because of the widespread uncertainty if the bottom is in or not (which I guess you technically leave open as a question, depending on how we react to the expected 300s resistance - assuming we get there Tongue)

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masterluc
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March 02, 2015, 03:56:23 PM
 #2624

"Here's my analysis. Maybe not the best one, artillery shelling not that far away messes up my concentration."  o_O

Fuck the Ukraine nazi ::angry:: Around 20-30k dead of them for now. hehe

wpalczynski
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March 02, 2015, 04:08:25 PM
 #2625

Damn Americans stirring up shit all over the world.

"Here's my analysis. Maybe not the best one, artillery shelling not that far away messes up my concentration."  o_O

Fuck the Ukraine nazi ::angry:: Around 20-30k dead of them for now. hehe

masterluc
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March 02, 2015, 04:11:49 PM
 #2626

small family quarrel - nothing special  Cool

watching bitcoin price. it accelerates

Wandererfromthenorth
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March 02, 2015, 04:20:07 PM
Last edit: March 03, 2015, 12:36:59 AM by Wandererfromthenorth
 #2627

Personally I think that TA in linear scale should be avoided completely, but maybe it's just me.


Bid sum increased a little on chinese exchanges.  Ask sum decreased on all exchanges.
It it breaks the current resistance could go to around $330-$320 (where the log trend line from the ATH is currently at).




That doesn't change my long term outlook though, which is still bearish.
masterluc
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March 02, 2015, 04:26:48 PM
 #2628

Personally I think that TA in linear scale should be avoided completely, but maybe it's just me.


Bid sum increasing increased a little on chinese exchanges.  Ask sum decreased on all exchanges.
It it breaks the current resistance could go to around $330-$320 (where the log trend line from the ATH is currently at).




That doesn't change my long term outlook though, which is still bearish.

Okay, here is a downtrend channel in log scale

https://www.tradingview.com/x/pSX0nTFa/

You can see upper bound is at my 360 magick number.

Wandererfromthenorth
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March 02, 2015, 04:41:05 PM
 #2629

Personally I think that TA in linear scale should be avoided completely, but maybe it's just me.


Bid sum increasing increased a little on chinese exchanges.  Ask sum decreased on all exchanges.
It it breaks the current resistance could go to around $330-$320 (where the log trend line from the ATH is currently at).




That doesn't change my long term outlook though, which is still bearish.

Okay, here is a downtrend channel in log scale

https://www.tradingview.com/x/pSX0nTFa/

You can see upper bound is at my 360 magick number.
The trend line I use starts from the ATH, so it touches the $450 pump:



Sitting at $330 now, $310 in a month.

But yes I guess yours is valid too.
masterluc
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March 02, 2015, 04:48:01 PM
 #2630

UPD sorry didn't read correctly your post

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March 09, 2015, 06:59:24 PM
 #2631

Looks like we're breaking out... over $300 is a big deal right ?
wpalczynski
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March 09, 2015, 08:44:53 PM
 #2632

Here are the levels of resistance according to one market analysis firm.

(i) 283 $ (medium, OTE short ss, local breakdown point)
(ii) 294 $ (strong, downtrend and triangle resistance, local high)
(iii) 303.33 $ (medium, pivot point, Fib)
(iv) 322 $ (medium, trendline and Fibonacci resistance)
(v) 334 $ (weak, previous support and breakout point, Fib level)
(vi) 365 (weak, dymanic and Fib)
(vii) 384 $ (medium, Fib level and old high)
(viii) 411 $ (weak)
(ix) 454 $ (strong, PayPal high)
(x) 500 $ (weak, recent high)
(xi) 534 $ (strong, old support)
(xii) 595 $ (weak, spike high)
(xiii) 627 $ (weak, Fib level)
(xiv) 658 $ (medium, recent high)
(xv) 685 $ (strong, recent failure)
(xvi) 710 $ (medium, old bear market high)
(xvii) 755 $ (strong, recent spike high)
(xviii) 800 $ (strong, Fib level and historical resistance)
(xix) 995 $ (very strong, bull trap high)
(xx) 1163 $ (VERY strong, ATH)

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March 09, 2015, 09:53:36 PM
 #2633

Here are the levels of resistance according to one market analysis firm.

(i) 283 $ (medium, OTE short ss, local breakdown point)
(ii) 294 $ (strong, downtrend and triangle resistance, local high)
(iii) 303.33 $ (medium, pivot point, Fib)
(iv) 322 $ (medium, trendline and Fibonacci resistance)
(v) 334 $ (weak, previous support and breakout point, Fib level)
(vi) 365 (weak, dymanic and Fib)
(vii) 384 $ (medium, Fib level and old high)
(viii) 411 $ (weak)
(ix) 454 $ (strong, PayPal high)
(x) 500 $ (weak, recent high)
(xi) 534 $ (strong, old support)
(xii) 595 $ (weak, spike high)
(xiii) 627 $ (weak, Fib level)
(xiv) 658 $ (medium, recent high)
(xv) 685 $ (strong, recent failure)
(xvi) 710 $ (medium, old bear market high)
(xvii) 755 $ (strong, recent spike high)
(xviii) 800 $ (strong, Fib level and historical resistance)
(xix) 995 $ (very strong, bull trap high)
(xx) 1163 $ (VERY strong, ATH)
283 - tick Smiley

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HalFinneysBrain
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March 09, 2015, 10:26:14 PM
 #2634

A lot of those supposed resistance levels dont seem very relevant anymore. 

As far as real strong resistance levels go, the low 300s is a major level both from the old 315 high, the downtrend line (wherever it is), etc.  Other than that I see 475 (gentlemen rally), 680 (june rally), and all time high as major points, and thats about it.  Maybe the 995 high after the initial drop. 

Of all those, only breaking the downtrend line is really major, imo. 


Bitcoin isnt like other things.  When bitcoin is in a true bull phase, its going to crash through every resistance level and go to absurd heights, and resistance is meaningless.  When its done, the corrections are incredibly violent, as we saw in 2011, and in 2014.  The only level that REALLY matters is the one where the trendline is.  Right now that means the line in the low to mid 300s that we have to cross to break out of this bear.
molecular
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March 10, 2015, 06:48:50 AM
 #2635

(i) 283 $ (medium, OTE short ss, local breakdown point)
(ii) 294 $ (strong, downtrend and triangle resistance, local high)
(iii) 303.33 $ (medium, pivot point, Fib)
(iv) 322 $ (medium, trendline and Fibonacci resistance)
283 - tick Smiley

294 - tick

If we break $315 substantially (maybe to $350) and stay there for a day or two, I'm getting excited. A drop afterwards wouldn't worry me then, since we'd have built a higher high marking a nice uptrend starting at $166.

If we don't break $315 I'm not worried either, but then it'd look like we'll be building a pretty large triangle that can draw out for a long time (months)

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masterluc
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March 10, 2015, 03:44:01 PM
 #2636

Local downtrend channel breaking



HalFinneysBrain
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March 10, 2015, 05:58:14 PM
 #2637

Channel needs to break on logarithmic chart too I think.
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March 10, 2015, 06:10:56 PM
 #2638

Channel needs to break on logarithmic chart too I think.

When will that be ?

By the way, I think it's very uncool you have taken the names of one of Bitcoins greatest heroes who has passed away. Have some respect man.
molecular
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March 10, 2015, 06:17:47 PM
 #2639

Channel needs to break on logarithmic chart too I think.

When will that be ?

By the way, I think it's very uncool you have taken the names of one of Bitcoins greatest heroes who has passed away. Have some respect man.

I don't think it's disrespectful. He's clearly not impersonating.

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jimbobway
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March 10, 2015, 06:20:56 PM
 #2640

Channel needs to break on logarithmic chart too I think.

When will that be ?

By the way, I think it's very uncool you have taken the names of one of Bitcoins greatest heroes who has passed away. Have some respect man.

I don't think it's disrespectful. He's clearly not impersonating.

Too soon?
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