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Author Topic: Analysis  (Read 940418 times)
masterluc
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March 13, 2015, 09:44:09 AM
 #2621

First medium strength resistance - weekly sma20



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Xiaoxiao
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March 13, 2015, 10:12:00 AM
 #2622

First medium strength resistance - weekly sma20




I went short @ 291, it seems like the bear market will continue for the next weeks to month.

What do you think, am I playing with fire here?  I plan on seeing what happens if/when it hits 275...
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March 13, 2015, 10:18:56 AM
 #2623

Daily ADX and SS suggest at least correction.


masterluc
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March 13, 2015, 10:30:36 AM
 #2624

But I will be surprised if 310 high will not be broken

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March 13, 2015, 10:38:57 AM
 #2625

But I will be surprised if 310 high will not be broken

What kind of time frame are we talking about here?
masterluc
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March 13, 2015, 10:43:41 AM
 #2626

Two weeks. Great chance of getting bearish hidden divergence





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March 13, 2015, 02:14:29 PM
 #2627

Why do you use stamp to at? Bitfinex or btcchina is not better now to at?
Bitstamp last days chart looks pretty different than chinese markets and finex.
Btw. great thread, I'll watch. Good luck.
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March 13, 2015, 02:46:12 PM
 #2628

notify/watch not working for me..

thanks for thread  Wink

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March 13, 2015, 07:03:50 PM
 #2629

Why do you use stamp to at? Bitfinex or btcchina is not better now to at?
Bitstamp last days chart looks pretty different than chinese markets and finex.
Btw. great thread, I'll watch. Good luck.
The market is connected, exchanges follow each other, arbitrage and create an inter-exchange dynamic which is reflected in every exchange. Analysis on only one (in this case Bitstamp) will still yield signals/patterns for the rest of them, particularly on larger timescales which is luc's range.

On lower scales, however, individual exchanges may behave slightly differently, and sometimes a decision for sudden change in movement is clearly triggered in one, usually one with highest volume, which is then followed by the rest (or sometimes not). But over time the small differences even out, so the longer term picture is similar across the board.

Besides, luc probably trades on stamp and old habits are hard to break Grin

Is it a bull? Is it a bear? No, it's just another sheep.
masterluc
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March 15, 2015, 03:06:05 AM
Last edit: March 15, 2015, 03:33:56 AM by masterluc
 #2630

I had VERY FUCKING NEGATIVE expirence trading with bfx for almost year. I don't have idea who is iFinex Inc and why do they still beta after two years.

And I am not Chinese to trade at btcchina. Don't ask dumb questions.

Also I don't see any significant difference between those 3 exchanges graphs.

As for situation report. WARNING! Hidden bearish divergences I mentioned above are doomed to be unless miracle. This doesn't mean daily sma200 can't be retested. But price should break 470 high almost immediately for good bullish scenario.

Taking into account daily picture, I look at weekly chart and unfortunately observe rising odds that bullish bounce will terminate at weekly sma20.

TLDR: this may be a bull trap.

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March 15, 2015, 03:41:37 AM
 #2631

Luc- Do you see the current correction continuing to as low as $270? or maybe even $250 ?
masterluc
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March 17, 2015, 11:07:22 PM
 #2632

Daily hidden bearish macd/rsi divergence formed, warning active.

Rising bullish signal to 450 lower high break up.

Strong bearish prediction if price touch 208 low.

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March 17, 2015, 11:35:23 PM
 #2633

Daily hidden bearish macd/rsi divergence formed, warning active.

Rising bullish signal to 450 lower high break up.

Strong bearish prediction if price touch 208 low.

uh-oh... 

Are you with tim west for the bearish target?

https://www.tradingview.com/v/iWXmzaeG/
masterluc
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March 18, 2015, 12:00:12 AM
 #2634

Somewhere around 100 if price will touch 208 again.

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March 18, 2015, 12:38:46 AM
 #2635

Somewhere around 100 if price will touch 208 again.

Lol. Shorts everywhere. Grin
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March 18, 2015, 12:49:49 AM
 #2636

Luc- what happened to your confident assessment that it will hit at least 310-400 or whatever. 

masterluc
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March 18, 2015, 12:50:50 AM
 #2637

208 - bearish
450 - bullish

Everything between - undefined, hehe. Pretty wide range  Grin

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March 18, 2015, 12:52:49 AM
 #2638

Luc- what happened to your confident assessment that it will hit at least 310-400 or whatever.  

Rise was too slow, too low volume. Bearish divergence appeared earlier than price went to safe zone.

Morecoin Freeman
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March 18, 2015, 01:04:59 AM
 #2639

I agree the rally was too weak, I've addressed this a couple of times in the past few days also.

I'd say we go down $300 was the top. Also most profitable direction for the whales since there will be more margin calls to trigger than in the other direction.
Mmm I have a positive outlook on bitcoin but my interpretation right now is that demand is stalling.
This is nothing like last summer's rally from $420 to $680.

For now I think we will not go past $300 for quite some time. But hey this is bitcoin so anything could happen still...

I'm pretty confident the bear market will continue for some longer. No big deal for the day traders but some long term investors might get disappointed. Hang in there!

Ask the stranger he knows who you really are.
Xiaoxiao
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March 18, 2015, 01:15:52 AM
 #2640

Luc- what happened to your confident assessment that it will hit at least 310-400 or whatever.  

Rise was too slow, too low volume. Bearish divergence appeared earlier than price went to safe zone.

Yeah I wasn't too thrilled about your bullish assessments.

This recent bounce from 166 barely cracked 300 and now it is tanking.  100 might be more realistic than $400...
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