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Author Topic: Analysis  (Read 916621 times)
damiano
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February 23, 2015, 03:25:39 PM
 #2601

It is when price is locked in trading range (210-250) for a long time (weeks, months). Like it was locked in ~$5 range in 2012 for a half of year.



and then the explosion comes..

I don't mind waiting.  Wink

If 2014 taught us anything, it's that currently, "explosions"  mostly happen in the direction most of us don't like that much Tongue

With that in mind then I would assume were heading a lot lower.  Hopefully 210 holds

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bassclef
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February 23, 2015, 04:23:34 PM
 #2602

I think if I've learned anything about trading, it's that the market rarely behaves the same way twice!
JustAnotherSheep
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February 24, 2015, 10:22:45 PM
 #2603

It is when price is locked in trading range (210-250) for a long time (weeks, months). Like it was locked in ~$5 range in 2012 for a half of year.
But sideways for a few weeks more at this position will break long-term resistance line by default. Surely this should trigger significant upwards move, preventing range lock for any longer amount of time?

Is it a bull? Is it a bear? No, it's just another sheep.
AtheistAKASaneBrain
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February 25, 2015, 04:35:45 PM
 #2604

I think if I've learned anything about trading, it's that the market rarely behaves the same way twice!

It could do something similar again but you didn't expect it.
masterluc
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February 27, 2015, 04:28:11 AM
 #2605

4th break attempt. Very promising, watching day close. Target 360 on success.



podyx
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February 27, 2015, 04:51:35 AM
 #2606

4th break attempt. Very promising, watching day close. Target 360 on success.




Igluenza
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February 27, 2015, 05:41:43 AM
 #2607


Decided to nibble a few long at 237 earlier today. Nice to see the subsequent ramp over 250...
oda.krell
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February 27, 2015, 10:02:10 AM
Last edit: February 27, 2015, 12:32:35 PM by oda.krell
 #2608

I'm skeptical about a convincing (and surviving Cheesy) breakout at this point... but I'm getting more skeptical as well about much lower prices in the near term.

(EDIT) daily MFI painting a rather unconvincing picture so far, being the main reason that I don't fully trust this breakout yet.

More of the old sideways then, maybe, just a few dollar higher than before.


(EDIT) But if nothing else, it's good to see DSMA50 (@6h) being attacked finally:


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davidorentol
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February 28, 2015, 08:17:47 AM
 #2609

4th break attempt. Very promising, watching day close. Target 360 on success.

Hello masterluc
Is this target confirmed ? or we need more clear break out? thanks
wpalczynski
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March 01, 2015, 02:22:57 PM
 #2610

Large volume dumps don't seem to be able to bring the price down very far anymore.  Do you guys think the trend has reversed for good and we are in a slow Bull market?

4th break attempt. Very promising, watching day close. Target 360 on success.

Hello masterluc
Is this target confirmed ? or we need more clear break out? thanks

RyNinDaCleM
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March 01, 2015, 02:37:59 PM
 #2611

Large volume dumps don't seem to be able to bring the price down very far anymore.  Do you guys think the trend has reversed for good and we are in a slow Bull market?

4th break attempt. Very promising, watching day close. Target 360 on success.

Hello masterluc
Is this target confirmed ? or we need more clear break out? thanks

Not me!
I think the best you can hope for, right now, is something similar to the November '14 or May '14 rally.
The linear trend line is broken, but imo, the log trend line is the more important one and I don't think it's that important either. There were 3 or 4 trend lines that have been broken over the last 14 months that only resulted in a suckers rally. Then you have the rising trend line since early 2011 that broke in January, which probably trumps any declining TL over the last year.

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March 01, 2015, 03:02:41 PM
 #2612

Large volume dumps don't seem to be able to bring the price down very far anymore.  Do you guys think the trend has reversed for good and we are in a slow Bull market?

4th break attempt. Very promising, watching day close. Target 360 on success.

Hello masterluc
Is this target confirmed ? or we need more clear break out? thanks

Not me!
I think the best you can hope for, right now, is something similar to the November '14 or May '14 rally.
The linear trend line is broken, but imo, the log trend line is the more important one and I don't think it's that important either. There were 3 or 4 trend lines that have been broken over the last 14 months that only resulted in a suckers rally. Then you have the rising trend line since early 2011 that broke in January, which probably trumps any declining TL over the last year.

You don't feel that the large volume we had during the drop in January signified a capitulation type of event?
wpalczynski
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March 01, 2015, 03:15:57 PM
 #2613

Large volume dumps don't seem to be able to bring the price down very far anymore.  Do you guys think the trend has reversed for good and we are in a slow Bull market?

4th break attempt. Very promising, watching day close. Target 360 on success.

Hello masterluc
Is this target confirmed ? or we need more clear break out? thanks

Not me!
I think the best you can hope for, right now, is something similar to the November '14 or May '14 rally.
The linear trend line is broken, but imo, the log trend line is the more important one and I don't think it's that important either. There were 3 or 4 trend lines that have been broken over the last 14 months that only resulted in a suckers rally. Then you have the rising trend line since early 2011 that broke in January, which probably trumps any declining TL over the last year.

You don't feel that the large volume we had during the drop in January signified a capitulation type of event?

It certainly looked like that to me.

Barney
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March 01, 2015, 04:40:02 PM
 #2614

Large volume dumps don't seem to be able to bring the price down very far anymore.  Do you guys think the trend has reversed for good and we are in a slow Bull market?

4th break attempt. Very promising, watching day close. Target 360 on success.

Hello masterluc
Is this target confirmed ? or we need more clear break out? thanks

Not me!
I think the best you can hope for, right now, is something similar to the November '14 or May '14 rally.
The linear trend line is broken, but imo, the log trend line is the more important one and I don't think it's that important either. There were 3 or 4 trend lines that have been broken over the last 14 months that only resulted in a suckers rally. Then you have the rising trend line since early 2011 that broke in January, which probably trumps any declining TL over the last year.


So what we are looking for to declare the final low? Impulse from the lows instead of zig-zag?

Igluenza
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March 02, 2015, 05:04:34 AM
 #2615

Large volume dumps don't seem to be able to bring the price down very far anymore.  Do you guys think the trend has reversed for good and we are in a slow Bull market?

4th break attempt. Very promising, watching day close. Target 360 on success.

Hello masterluc
Is this target confirmed ? or we need more clear break out? thanks

Not me!
I think the best you can hope for, right now, is something similar to the November '14 or May '14 rally.
The linear trend line is broken, but imo, the log trend line is the more important one and I don't think it's that important either. There were 3 or 4 trend lines that have been broken over the last 14 months that only resulted in a suckers rally. Then you have the rising trend line since early 2011 that broke in January, which probably trumps any declining TL over the last year.


So what we are looking for to declare the final low? Impulse from the lows instead of zig-zag?

If masterluc's TA & track record means anything (which to me it certainly does), when he appears to be cautiously bullish (hopefully I'm not misreading 'promising' or '360') after being so bearish since the ATH, he's certainly got my attention; especially at such a pivotal moment/point on the charts...

Great point though RyNinDaCleM; I too have concerns about that overshoot that not only broke through the bottom of the wedge, but through that lower long-term trendline support. I guess the important thing to remember is, don't fight the trend, once price action shows us which direction it wants to push the market. #RideTheWave
masterluc
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March 02, 2015, 07:37:54 AM
 #2616

I am cautiously bullish becase time projection shows 1-4 years of correction, like I said in ATH.

As minimum time projection (1 year) has been passed - price may start slowly recover.

Here is some analysis.

Bullish wedge has been obviously broken up - I say after three days confirmation.



Price is slowly going above upper daily BB. Since close above it will accelerate.



Daily macd made a bullish hook and also crossed neutral line up. The near target besides in around ~360 territory, in previous consolidation level. Daily SMA 200 also is somewhere there.



Weekly macd made a bullish cross, also breaking sma10 which has been resistance for 12 weeks.



We have a nice bullish setup. But how far it may blow - I'll can say watching reaction to 360 resistance.

masterluc
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March 02, 2015, 07:47:56 AM
 #2617

Plus MACD resistance levels defined by prev highs and inverse H&S figure.
Plus rising channel.

Note, 1st wave up in new channel and resistance level for 2nd wave - shows two waves up with almost equal lenght. So warning! It may be 3-3-3 (abc) correction!



windjc
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March 02, 2015, 07:56:51 AM
 #2618

Plus MACD resistance levels defined by prev highs and inverse H&S figure.
Plus rising channel.

Note, 1st wave up in new channel and resistance level for 2nd wave - shows two waves up with almost equal lenght. So warning! It may be 3-3-3 (abc) correction!




I was under the working assumption that even if we go to 360, this is all a corrective. Do you think its possible the bottom is in?
masterluc
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March 02, 2015, 07:58:11 AM
 #2619

For the perfect reversal price should reach area above weekly upper BB.

In this case it will almost completely damage bearish picture. But it will need 5+ months (20+ weeks) for cosolidation for next step forward. So stay tuned for a long way back.



molecular
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March 02, 2015, 08:31:49 AM
 #2620

A long way back is fine  by me. Thanks for excellent analysis, masterluc. I highly doubted your call of > 1 year bear trend back at the ATH. Now that it is confirmed, I am very impressed.



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