Well, I was talking about demand for Devcoins. I.e. money entering the Devcoin economy.
For example, if Devtome was a successful project, it would generate income from ads displayed on its pages. This money would enter Devcoin economy as Devtome will buy Devcoins to pay writers, and it will increase demand for Devcoin.
And articles attract eyes which pay for ads. Devtome drives ad revenue. I admit ad revenue is not going to be good enough.
Another example would be a game which uses Devcoin as a game currency. People will buy Devcoins to play this game.
Highly unlikely example. Why would a game designer choose Devcoin? There are other coins which would work even better or perhaps they could roll out their own coin.
Also it can be a project like prediction market...
But currently it's not. You're saying what it can be, but right now it's not any of the things you say.
In any case, to make a dent you need some sizeable revenue in Devcoins... At least $10,000/month, I think.
If people just get Devcoins for writing, it doesn't add any demand... Worse than that, it probably increases supply (because previously Devcoins were earned by hardcore enthusiasts, but now people just earn them and cash out), which makes them less valuable.
I agree. I don't want people just to get Devcoins for writing. What about films, music, and visual art? There are many other industries other than writing but right now since Devcoin only pays writers what do you expect? The workers go where the money is, and if graphics artists for instance were in demand and could get paid, or musicians, or Youtube and podcasters I can see many people wanting to work for Devcoins. The problem is the math still isnt going to work with infinite supply and with it being inflationary because inflationary coins can't scale. When you try to scale it globally (globalization) then it spreads thin and the only people who can make money will be the developing nations who work for the cheapest. It's the same problem we have right now where people complain that China takes all the jobs, and Devcoin being so inflationary would basically mirror the problems of the dollar.
Let's start with the fact that it doesn't make sense to buy words. They are all in dictionary.
Okay let's call it code instead of words. Does it make sense to buy code? If it doesn't then how do programmers get paid?
It makes sense to pay for results, not for words.
So if it were code, it makes sense only to pay for completed programs?
But you have to understand an article isn't exactly just a bunch of words, it's structured and readable. It's definitely worth something. What if it's journalism, how much would that collection of words be worth?
It doesn't matter much... English ads pay more too... Also there is a plenty of people who know English all around the world.
But they don't all know the same english and don't all know it equally as well.
If you cannot determine the nuances between southern english and western english then this is exactly my point but the nuances go even deeper, if you don't know the buzzwords, the buzz phrases, the memes, the unique cultural traditions, then you're easily identified as a foreigner. Human beings can't be fooled as easily as Google translate.
FYI I'm from Ukraine. Do you find my English incomprehensible?
It's not just about grammar. It's cultures and subcultures. If you did not grow up in the USA you don't really know US culture as well as someone who did. You wont understand cultural references or popular memes, and you wont be able to discuss certain topics which you'll have limited understanding of. You'd know more about the Ukraine and would be qualified to talk about those topics but you'd be speaking foreign English in a foreign dialect, you wont always use the right words in the right places, in the right tone (yes even text has a tone), there is a lot to writing and the American English is not the same as Ukraine or British English.
That being said if you're really smart and determined you could study all the words in the urban dictionary and try your best to assimilate US culture into your writing but most people aren't going to be able to do that unless they've lived in the US for a significant amount of time and had certain common experiences associated with this.
Here's all I need to know: http://devtome.com/doku.php?id=devcoin#history
Since pure charity didn't work, devcoin was changed to a beneficial organization, similar in concept to a benefit corporation. Devcoin would primarily fund open source projects whose revenue would be converted to devcoins, and secondarily fund open source developers with no expectation of future revenue. This has been successful, and at the time of this writing in August 18, 2012, the devcoin market capitalization is about 0.00000140 BTC/DVC * 2,720,400,000 DVC = 3,809 BTC, of which 90% * 3,809 BTC = 3,428 BTC went to developers. The first open source revenue project is devtome, whose potential advertising revenue is small but growing.
We have differing measures of success. If you really think this is the best we can do, then we totally disagree. I think we can do better than this iteration of Devcoin and I think we can do better than Devcoin in general. A lot of Devcoin isn't working, and you can blame Devtome all you want but if that is the only part of Devcoin that is working then by attacking that you're effectively killing Devcoin. Devtome is the heart of Devcoin because they designed it to be that way and honestly most of us would never have heard of Devcoin, never would take it seriously, and never would work for it, if not for certain articles from individuals like Fin Shaggy and others. You're underestimating the value of Devtome.
In other document it says that Devtome is supposed to get 90% of total bounties. Which means that Devtome is supposed to be a cash cow.
It's supposed to be. There are a lot of things which went wrong with this coin. I think if Ethicoin turns out to be more than vaporware it could be the end of Devcoin entirely. I think the intention behind Devcoin is respectable and I support what it's trying to do, I just don't believe this version will scale.
This is bullshit, we shouldn't measure availability of workers, we should measure prospects of revenue.
And how exactly can anyone know that in advance? You don't know which article is the article which drew everyone into Devcoin but I'm pretty sure it was something on Devtome. One of those articles or several caught my attention and I'm sure I'm not the only one. Other than Devtome there is no real reason not to just pay people in Bitcoins because Devtome is the major innovation and writing is the major reason why it's an innovation. No one else is paying people to write, and journalism is a dying industry.
Content farming is a very competitive business and it's very hard to get any profit off it.
Content farming isn't the same as what Devtome can be. Is a magazine a content farm? Is a scientific journal a content farm? What about a cook book? Devtome is all of that.
But you're right, it's hard to make a profit without a subscription model which is exactly why scientific journals remain locked behind paywalls. I was hoping Devtome could actually contribute to changing that trend.
An excellent way to grow market cap would be a killer app. A service which will be in high demand.
That killer app is Bitcoin. I don't see why anyone writing a killer app is going to ask for pay in anything other than Bitcoin. I think writers will accept Devcoin for the chance to turn it into Bitcoin and I think programmers who already wrote killer apps would accept donations in Devcoin but I do not see Devcoin being something to make someone set aside hours a day or quit their day job to write a killer app. There is just not enough money in it. In fact most people who write killer apps don't make much money in general and will make even less going into the future whether they use Devcoin, USD or Bitcoin, until a new payment model is figured out. It's the same problem as we see in journalism where source code just isn't valued for what it's worth. Any indian programmer can code just like any English speaking foreigner can write English poetry.
As far as I know, we don't have any proper cryptocurrency-based prediction market yet, so if somebody would launch a prediction market which works only with Devcoins, a lot of people will buy considerable amounts of Devcoin to play on it.
Speculation cannot save Devcoin. Prediction markets wont save Devcoin. As soon as Devcoin faces a competitor it's over. Devcoin cannot compete with this: https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=221375.0
Well, "math is unsustainable" because it isn't working according to the original intent. The point was not to grow number of writers, it was to grow number of readers. And it is not easy because there are insane amounts of content on the web, so chances that somebody will go to devtome for content are low.
Be realistic. You aren't going to build a Tome without thousands if not millions of writers. If they didn't think this through it's because they didn't think this through. Don't blame it on writers. Also there are plenty of readers, but if they aren't making money then perhaps they should go with a subscription model and charge in Bitcoins, Litecoins, PPcoins, and others a small fee to access Devtome. This would work just fine if Devtome actually had enough works in it, and this combined with ads would make Devtome into a paywalled academic journal style site. Otherwise quality is going to go down and it's going to fall apart.
It can only work if you offer some unique content in some niche, so you'll get plenty of returning users and viral marketing...
They already get plenty of users but ads just aren't going to pay much and it's that way even for big journalism sites so you think Devtome will be different? The New York Times is struggling.
So again, you need to understand that number of writers is irrelevant. Just one talented writer can make unique content which would attract millions of readers. So number of writers does not help devtome/devcoin.
How do you know that hasn't happened already? But attracting eyes doesn't generate much money. So if Devcoin isn't somehow intrinsically valuable it wont work. Bitcoin is deflationary, so people want it just to hold onto it. Devcoin will never be like this.
Yes, if you target growth of number of writers. But if you read the original intent, it was actually about the growth of revenue.
And I'm saying even in that they got the math wrong. Devcoin was designed by well meaning idealists who did not think it all through in my opinion. You can blame the writers, theres only around 1000 or so, so there isn't a lot of blame to go around.
Even if you don't write code or if you do, if you have to live off charity you won't be able to pay your bills. There are better ways to do this than Devcoin, much better ways.
Devcoins are granted only for good accomplishments. ... They are not deserved or given for lines of code or hours of work.
And who decides what is an accomplishment?
If I go to Devtome can I rate the articles which impacted me? Can I vote on how much of a share of the pie different writers should get? What happened to democracy? What happened to the free market?
That was the original philosophy... Pay-per-word you see on devtome exists just because it was easier to manage.
Pay-per-word is the only reason Devcoin has life at all, it's attracting the interest. Without attracting interest the coin dies.
As a mathematician (M. Sc. in applied math) I can tell you that it is NOT a problem. Asymptotically, we're going to have zero (monetary base) inflation in the long term. If you take into account that some coins are lost, inflation will be negative.
It's not just inflation that I'm talking about, I'm saying the idea that somehow Devcoins will become valuable when they are generating at this rate. Inflation by itself isn't an issue unless it's at a rate faster than the market can handle and then the actual purchasing power and pay of every worker shrinks. This is the opposite of what is happening with Bitcoin and Litecoin. With those coins if you write or code and get paid in either of those coins then it's reasonable to believe that a year from now your coins might be worth even more so you might save them. With Devcoin we aren't seeing that trend are we. So if you're a mathematician explain to me why we aren't seeing the same trend with Devcoin that we see with Bitcoin and Litecoin? Are you saying it's just because of market cap?
In the short term... Let's say Devcoin exists for two years. It will take two years to double the monetary base. Don't you think we can double demand for Devcoin in two years?
Honestly, no I don't. I see Devcoin being replaced this year. Maybe my opinion would change if Devcoin changed but if it stays as it is now, in 6 months people in third world countries will have to write for Devtome and this is fine and all but if I want to read opinions from Americans on American concerns I wont be able to find it on Devcoin because it will no longer be worth the time for people to put it there. There were around 500 writers last month, now there are around 1000, so if it keeps growing at this rate it wont sustain.
When Devcoin will be 10 years old, per-year inflation will be ~10%. Let's assume that there is no extra demand... 10% inflation is bad if you want to keep savings in this currency. But if you wage goes from $50/hour to $45/hour in a year, it is tolerable.
You assume it will make it to 10 years without any changes and I don't. I think Ethicoin if it is released will probably steal all the interest from Devcoin this year. Then there is Netcoin which is coming probably in 2014 which would steal the show entirely. I don't see a future in Devcoin assuming these other coins can pull off what they are attempting because I believe the designs of these other coins are more fundamentally sound.
But I admit, I'm not the mathematician.
But do you seriously think that demand cannot grow at 10% per year rate in 10 years?
Do you think that, say, 1% per year growth is better? That doesn't make much sense because at start growth is high, but it slows down...
Demand might grow, but I don't think the American and European workers will fuel that demand and the audience will follow the workers. This is not to say Devcoin wont survive, it will. It just wont be something I see Americans and Europeans deciding to work for when other copycat coins come along and they will. Any copycat could fork Devcoin right now, modify it so that all the problems I mentioned are resolved, and the people working for Devcoin would simply make wallets under that new coin and accept that coin too. Eventually no one will even bother making Devcoin wallets as they'd get paid more in the newer coins.
Even if the newer coins don't even offer much in advancement, if people think they can make more money from them they'll use it. Devcoin has a good intention, and a good idea, but implemented wrong, and designed wrong, these are my opinions.