Meanwhile in Ukraine... Revolution.

[bryant.coleman]

At last, some positive news from Putin's office:

Russian President Vladimir Putin will formulate his opinion on the referendums on the status of Donetsk and Lugansk regions “based on their results,” spokesman for the president, Dmitry Peskov told Kommersant newspaper. Peskov also clarified that Putin “did not urge, but recommended” for the votes to be postponed, however the spokesman says that “even considering the authority of the Russian President,” it was difficult for Donetsk and Lugansk authorities to follow his recommendation amid Kiev's ongoing military crackdown.

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[bryant.coleman]

The birth of a new country, the Donetsk People’s Republic

http://uprootedpalestinians.wordpress.com/2014/05/12/the-birth-of-a-new-country-the-donetsk-peoples-republic/

Pro-Russian separatists in Ukraine’s eastern Donetsk region have claimed a resounding victory in a “self-rule” referendum, saying 89% voted in favour. In Luhansk, another eastern region, the results – also expected to show a strong backing – will be released soon. BBC reporters at polling stations spoke of chaotic scenes, no voting booths in places and no electoral register. Ukraine called the vote a “criminal farce” organised by Russia. The EU and US also said the polls were illegal. Separatists claimed two people were killed by armed men loyal to Kiev in the city of Krasnoarmiisk.

[Nemo1024]

No voting booths?
A definitely saw some, as reported from various locations.
Also, check out this yesterdays broadcast of Vesti:
http://russia.tv/video/show/brand_id/5402/episode_id/986747/video_id/999088

About the Victory Day celebrations in Crimea: at 10:00

About the Odessa massacre at ~30:00 (The nazi admitting on camera that everything is coordinated with the local police, in a clip taken prior to the events)
They draw a parallel to the events leading up to NATO's invasion of Yugoslavia: a number of bloody provocations and massacres that were not reported by the Western media, then when people started to retaliate, it suddenly got reported on front pages as aggression, justifying an invasion.

About the referendum in South-East: at 45:00 (you can see the booths )

About Montenegro referendum: 1:45:00 (The difference between yes and no was then a little over 1000 votes)

[Paya]

About Montenegro referendum: 1:45:00 (The difference between yes and no was then a little over 1000 votes)

The difference was actually ~45.000 votes, still looks small at first glance but bear in mind that the Montenegro is tiny country with the total population of 600.000 citizens. Result of the referendum was: 55% for the independence, 45% against. Turnout: 86%.

[niothor]

Tou know as well as me how easily that can be faked with tor browsers

[bryant.coleman]

Putin to formulate his attitude to referenda in Ukraine's south-east on their results

http://en.itar-tass.com/russia/731185

President Vladimir Putin will formulate his attitude to the referenda, held on Sunday, on the status of the Donetsk and Lugansk Regions, "on the strength of their results", presidential press secretary Dmitry Peskov told the newspaper Kommersant. What the RF President's decision will be "is difficult to forecast", Peskov added.

[niothor]

Putin to formulate his attitude to referenda in Ukraine's south-east on their results

http://en.itar-tass.com/russia/731185

President Vladimir Putin will formulate his attitude to the referenda, held on Sunday, on the status of the Donetsk and Lugansk Regions, "on the strength of their results", presidential press secretary Dmitry Peskov told the newspaper Kommersant. What the RF President's decision will be "is difficult to forecast", Peskov added.

Difficult to forecast?  Oh really?
They already had the results one week before the referendum and they didn't have time to formulate at "attitude" =)))))

[bryant.coleman]

Difficult to forecast?  Oh really?
They already had the results one week before the referendum and they didn't have time to formulate at "attitude" =)))))

To be honest, Putin is caught between the devil and the deep sea. Here are his options.

Option 1, preferred by Putin: Let Donetsk and Lugansk remain in Ukraine, but with wide-ranging autonomy. The Kiev-junta will never agree to giving self-rule, as they too want to demolish the popularity of Putin back home in Russia.

Option 2: Armed invasion by Russia: Putin don't want this method, as he knows that making 7 million predominantly poor people the new Russian citizens will need tens of billions of USD every year in the form of salary, welfare and pensions. Also, sanctions will get a lot tougher and damage the Russian economy. The Kiev junta want to force Putin to do this step. If Putin invades Donbass, then the Russian economy will go in to a recession, and in the long term his popularity will nosedive. This might be the only chance to get Putin out of power.

[Paya]

He is going to tell that the people expressed their legitimate view and (again) ask Kiev to allow their representatives to attend all future talks. Referendum has been held in the situation which was all but normal, and it is very likely that the process itself wasn't very "clean", but no one should ignore the fact that ALOT of people showed up to vote. There is an undeniably strong wish for greater autonomy among the Ukrainian citizens living in the eastern regions. Turning a blind eye on that, or even worse - supressing with (para)military, isn't acceptable any more (if it ever was).

[Nemo1024]

There is a third option. Wait out until the 25th and the Ukrainian presidential elections. Then talk with the actual legitimate government of Ukraine. I have a suspicion it'll be the chocolate king.

If anything, referendums can be re-run in calmer conditions. Norway had two referendums about joining EU, both times voting 'no', so there's nothing wrong having two referendums about the same question.

In the meantime he should sugegst moving in UN peacekeeping forces under, say, Serbian command to avoid further massacres of the civilians.

[bryant.coleman]

There is a third option. Wait out until the 25th and the Ukrainian presidential elections. Then talk with the actual legitimate government of Ukraine. I have a suspicion it'll be the chocolate king.

It'l be interesting to know whether the CIA will continue their support to Kiev if some of the neo-nazis win that election, such as Oleg Lyashko, Oleg Tyahnybok, or Dmytro Yarosh. 

[niothor]

Difficult to forecast?  Oh really?
They already had the results one week before the referendum and they didn't have time to formulate at "attitude" =)))))

To be honest, Putin is caught between the devil and the deep sea. Here are his options.

Option 1, preferred by Putin: Let Donetsk and Lugansk remain in Ukraine, but with wide-ranging autonomy. The Kiev-junta will never agree to giving self-rule, as they too want to demolish the popularity of Putin back home in Russia.

Option 2: Armed invasion by Russia: Putin don't want this method, as he knows that making 7 million predominantly poor people the new Russian citizens will need tens of billions of USD every year in the form of salary, welfare and pensions. Also, sanctions will get a lot tougher and damage the Russian economy. The Kiev junta want to force Putin to do this step. If Putin invades Donbass, then the Russian economy will go in to a recession, and in the long term his popularity will nosedive. This might be the only chance to get Putin out of power.

Why do you say that , you claimed that sanctions will have no effect and had no effect before. Why did your attitude change?

But honestly i don't think he is in that tough situation. He can simply ignore it.

I didn't do it .  Have nothing to do with it

[bryant.coleman]

Why do you say that , you claimed that sanctions will have no effect and had no effect before. Why did your attitude change?

I said that the current set of sanctions will have no effect on the Russian economy. But if they ban the oil and gas imports from Russia, that will be really bad for the Russian economy.

[ENEWIT]

There is a third option. Wait out until the 25th and the Ukrainian presidential elections. Then talk with the actual legitimate government of Ukraine. I have a suspicion it'll be the chocolate king.

It'l be interesting to know whether the CIA will continue their support to Kiev if some of the neo-nazis win that election, such as Oleg Lyashko, Oleg Tyahnybok, or Dmytro Yarosh. 

ITA!
I would like to see that!

While on the other hand, I want to make this revolution ended ASAP.

[niothor]

Why do you say that , you claimed that sanctions will have no effect and had no effect before. Why did your attitude change?

I said that the current set of sanctions will have no effect on the Russian economy. But if they ban the oil and gas imports from Russia, that will be really bad for the Russian economy.

And again you discussed that before with me and at that time you claimed that there is no way for other counties to supply the eu and us with gas/oil , and you also claimed that Russia will find new partners in the east.

[bryant.coleman]

And again you discussed that before with me and at that time you claimed that there is no way for other counties to supply the eu and us with gas/oil , and you also claimed that Russia will find new partners in the east.

Well.. if the UN imposes sancitons, then no country can buy Russia's oil and gas. That includes those nations in the east, such as China and Japan. And another thing is that petroleum will top $300 a barrel if something like that actually happens. 

[niothor]

And again you discussed that before with me and at that time you claimed that there is no way for other counties to supply the eu and us with gas/oil , and you also claimed that Russia will find new partners in the east.

Well.. if the UN imposes sancitons, then no country can buy Russia's oil and gas. That includes those nations in the east, such as China and Japan. And another thing is that petroleum will top $300 a barrel if something like that actually happens. 

So , do you think china will follow the un sanctions? And drive it's whole economy into the ground because of the us?

[bryant.coleman]

So , do you think china will follow the un sanctions? And drive it's whole economy into the ground because of the us?

That depends on who imposes the sanctions. If it is the EU / US, then China won't care. But if the UN agencies decide to impose an embargo or sanction, then even China will be forced to comply with it.

[niothor]

So , do you think china will follow the un sanctions? And drive it's whole economy into the ground because of the us?

That depends on who imposes the sanctions. If it is the EU / US, then China won't care. But if the UN agencies decide to impose an embargo or sanction, then even China will be forced to comply with it.

Don't they have the right of veto on those decisions?
As i remember there are 5 members with this power and two of them are china and Russia.

[Paya]

I don't think that the China would acknowledge secession of Donbas, let alone joining the Russia. Iirc, they weren't happy with annexation of Crimea and their current grumbling could easily turn into the open condemnation of Russia - if Moscow decides to push further. Hell, not even the Belarus cheered Putin's Crimean move. Total blockade of Russia with catastrophic consequences to their highly export-dependant economy shouldn't be written off, apparently Putin suspects this, therefore he is starting to act very carefully. He is pretty much alone and he knows it.