rpietila Wall Observer - the Quality TA Thread ;)

[minerpumpkin]

It looks like we broke that long term exponential channel.

very bad then? hasnt that happened before past bubbles?

Who knows - I would bet at least on a quick, but rather deep flash crash.

It happened in 2011 - but on a strong down trend - so it resulted in an even stronger down move.

Indeed, recoil time! The spring is being pushed in to the max!

What if it breaks?   
What are the generally accepted long term channels at the moment?

[wachtwoord]

It looks like we broke that long term exponential channel.

very bad then? hasnt that happened before past bubbles?

Who knows - I would bet at least on a quick, but rather deep flash crash.

It happened in 2011 - but on a strong down trend - so it resulted in an even stronger down move.

Indeed, recoil time! The spring is being pushed in to the max!

What if it breaks?   
What are the generally accepted long term channels at the moment?

It can never break given you understand and fully trust Bitcoin. It can only break if I'm completely wrong in my analysis of Bitcoin. I'm seldom wrong and hope this is not one of those occasions.

[minerpumpkin]

What if it breaks?   
What are the generally accepted long term channels at the moment?

It can never break given you understand and fully trust Bitcoin. It can only break if I'm completely wrong in my analysis of Bitcoin. I'm seldom wrong and hope this is not one of those occasions.

Can I take your word for it? 
I like coming to this thread as it sort of calms my nerves and sheds light on the positive side of things. I don't want to hear all those bears back in the regular Wall Observer in times like these 

[wachtwoord]

What if it breaks?   
What are the generally accepted long term channels at the moment?

It can never break given you understand and fully trust Bitcoin. It can only break if I'm completely wrong in my analysis of Bitcoin. I'm seldom wrong and hope this is not one of those occasions.

Can I take your word for it? 
I like coming to this thread as it sort of calms my nerves and sheds light on the positive side of things. I don't want to hear all those bears back in the regular Wall Observer in times like these 

I have put a lot of money where my mouth is and would seriously hurt if Bitcoin went to zero. Actions speak louder than words. Still, no guarantees though

[prophetx]

it's almost august and a lot of people are on vacation, so easier to manipulate the market

i would look for the next big uptrend to form in the next 2 months, definitely before labor day things should start to shift

well that is my crystal ball/gut feeling analysis at least...  and btw I did predict that bitcoin would go steadily down for 6 -9 months following december high.

Taariq and Ron can quote me on that one.

[minerpumpkin]

it's almost august and a lot of people are on vacation, so easier to manipulate the market

i would look for the next big uptrend to form in the next 2 months, definitely before labor day things should start to shift

well that is my crystal ball/gut feeling analysis at least...  and btw I did predict that bitcoin would go steadily down for 6 -9 months following december high.

Taariq and Ron can quote me on that one.

Yeah, when you're looking at a 6 month or 1 year chart, everything looks so simple and clear. Sometimes those 'tiny' movements like today decide about bitcoins trend or fate, though. And the drop today can now be seen on the 1m chart. I don't like that...

[rpietila]

What if it breaks?   
What are the generally accepted long term channels at the moment?

It is generally accepted that you should never sell your bitcoins for anything less than a price, which is multiple times of the ATH of the prior boom.

- If Bitcoin is in its growth channel, and you panic sell in the bottom, it will cost you most of your bitcoins when you panic buy at 5-20x higher after realizing you were wrong. (If you panic buy threshold is lower, you end up always buying high and selling low, and diluting your holdings.)

- If it it destroyed, you have no way knowing it and being able to salvage the high point of your value. Salvaging a low point, is meaningless when the same outcome in fiat terms can be achieved by selling a few %-points more in the previous boom.

[ArticMine]

The recent drop from 620 USD coincides with the Ethereum IPO. The BTC that were traded for ether were subsequently sold for fiat. It is about the right amount of BTC and with a few hours delay. Just a theory.

[holomen]

Hmm.. well spotted  theory.

But why they would want to dump it for fiat, and in the exchanges.

edit.: could they be raising fiat for some kind of funding round from institutional inv. for those money to be seen in they balance sheets?

[rpietila]

Hmm.. well spotted  theory.

But why they would want to dump it for fiat, and in the exchanges.

They would only do that if they were a bunch of crooks, and scammers, and intending to run with the money in its anonymous fiat form.

Then again, if I had no morale and were in a need for a few million$ (neither of which is luckily the case), I would organize a startup that mentions but does not promise to do marvellous things.

[ArticMine]

Hmm.. well spotted  theory.

But why they would want to dump it for fiat, and in the exchanges.

edit.: could they be raising fiat for some kind of funding round from institutional inv. for those money to be seen in they balance sheets?

They have budgeted to spend a fixed amount of fiat over approximately the next six months, so they need to hedge their risk. https://www.ethereum.org/pdfs/IntendedUseOfRevenue.pdf.

[podyx]

What if it breaks?   
What are the generally accepted long term channels at the moment?

- If Bitcoin is in its growth channel, and you panic sell in the bottom, it will cost you most of your bitcoins when you panic buy at 5-20x higher after realizing you were wrong. (If you panic buy threshold is lower, you end up always buying high and selling low, and diluting your holdings.)

Risto's guide to financial freedom



 

[holomen]

Don't know their intentions, no one knows. But it might be a scenario as real as unintended stupidity.

Looking at their ,,Use of revenue'' sheet it looks like 12y. old made..

1 page plan when you raise $4.8M. Am I stupid or people investing there are blind?

All though i was never interested in it.  I would guess that ethereum will be endless project.... Rock type startup it will wallow.

and every new thing those programmers ends up adding, while not making key steps to test the concept, will make it even more Clumsy.

P.s. They would really need a financial advisory.... but it wont help them.

[rpietila]

Risto's guide to financial freedom

Nice pic. I appreciate!

[kehtolo]

Don't know their intentions, no one knows. But it might be a scenario as real as unintended stupidity.

Looking at their ,,Use of revenue'' sheet it looks like 12y. old made..

1 page plan when you raise $4.8M. Am I stupid or people investing there are blind?

All though i was never interested in it.  I would guess that ethereum will be endless project.... Rock type startup it will wallow.

and every new thing those programmers ends up adding, while not making key steps to test the concept, will make it even more Clumsy.

P.s. They would really need a financial advisory.... but it wont help them.

I read through some of their Disclaimer.. apparently they don't promise anything! - They state that some of the announcements might never get done and you may lose your money. Which means.. IF they NEVER do anything at all.. they can just point to these clauses and say.. we were up front about it all along.. I'll pass thanks.

[giveBTCpls]

O my god, im starting to think Etherum is a guaranteed big ass IPOfloop. I like Vitalik and what he has done thus far but I always had this feeling about Ethereum being something too big for its own that will end up in nothing. God bless the IPO invester's souls.

[dreamspark]

O my god, im starting to think Etherum is a guaranteed big ass IPOfloop. I like Vitalik and what he has done thus far but I always had this feeling about Ethereum being something too big for its own that will end up in nothing. God bless the IPO invester's souls.

People can only invest in vapour ware so many times before they realise, in the crypto world people have had plenty of chances to see the test carried out by alts in regards to IPO's. Seems people still need to learn their lesson.

No max supply = no investment from me.

[molecular]

It is generally accepted that you should never sell your bitcoins for anything less than a price, which is multiple times of the ATH of the prior boom.

- If Bitcoin is in its growth channel, and you panic sell in the bottom, it will cost you most of your bitcoins when you panic buy at 5-20x higher after realizing you were wrong. (If you panic buy threshold is lower, you end up always buying high and selling low, and diluting your holdings.)

- If it it destroyed, you have no way knowing it and being able to salvage the high point of your value. Salvaging a low point, is meaningless when the same outcome in fiat terms can be achieved by selling a few %-points more in the previous boom.

This is true. However I find it exceedingly hard to sell in the previous boom.

If there is indeed a next boom, this advice is very good. If not, it's not good advice.

[wachtwoord]

What if it breaks?   
What are the generally accepted long term channels at the moment?

It is generally accepted that you should never sell your bitcoins for anything less than a price, which is multiple times of the ATH of the prior boom.

- If Bitcoin is in its growth channel, and you panic sell in the bottom, it will cost you most of your bitcoins when you panic buy at 5-20x higher after realizing you were wrong. (If you panic buy threshold is lower, you end up always buying high and selling low, and diluting your holdings.)

- If it it destroyed, you have no way knowing it and being able to salvage the high point of your value. Salvaging a low point, is meaningless when the same outcome in fiat terms can be achieved by selling a few %-points more in the previous boom.

says the guy who sold most of his Bitcoins to buy a "castle".....

Why the hell do you think he sold most of his Bitcoin to buy a castle? His holdings are in the top echelon.

[molecular]

What if it breaks?   
What are the generally accepted long term channels at the moment?

It is generally accepted that you should never sell your bitcoins for anything less than a price, which is multiple times of the ATH of the prior boom.

- If Bitcoin is in its growth channel, and you panic sell in the bottom, it will cost you most of your bitcoins when you panic buy at 5-20x higher after realizing you were wrong. (If you panic buy threshold is lower, you end up always buying high and selling low, and diluting your holdings.)

- If it it destroyed, you have no way knowing it and being able to salvage the high point of your value. Salvaging a low point, is meaningless when the same outcome in fiat terms can be achieved by selling a few %-points more in the previous boom.

says the guy who sold most of his Bitcoins to buy a "castle".....

it's quite possible he sold the bitcoins at "multiple times of the ATH of the prior boom.", though. For example he could've sold them for $1000 (clearly a mulitiple of $266)