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Author Topic: Gold collapsing. Bitcoin UP.  (Read 1905934 times)
sidhujag
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September 27, 2014, 04:43:51 AM
 #12781

we are seeing us equities enter bubble territory as a base here as usd rises with equities... we are back to pre great recession correlation instead of usd acting as a safe haven its becoming an indication of US economic performance.

interesting theory.  could be.  we'll see what happens Monday.  the pick up in volatility would suggest otherwise.

either way, bad for gold and silver.  i still think Bitcoin disconnects from the pm's and heads back up from here.
I called for it since 2011(predicted it happened within a year at that time) so the fact that it happens more now just means its a more powerful trend... can never get the timing right... but the hunch is usually right based on macro analysis. Makes sense anyway.. the country with the biggest army is the safest economically until the whole system implodes.

Since gold broke 1700 to the downside after 19xx we've seen flashes of this correlation but now its becoming evident... i personally think it will put downside pressure on btc in the short term, but any correction should help btc.

not sure if you mean you predicted gold or stocks in 2011.  if you mean the top in gold & silver, then you were right there with me altho certainly not around here.

i still think Bitcoin disconnects with gold and heads higher but it certainly is possible to go down with it for a while.

as for stocks and the dollar, there is a fundamental inconsistency in your argument.  since most money is debt and most of the money Wall St and stock jockeys play with is leverage and margin, a rising dollar cuts into any earnings from rising stocks.  it reduces their vig.  they want the dollar to go down so that they win on both sides of the trade.  in fact, the Fed has said it explicitly wants to chase cash holdings into "productive assets" which by their definition is stocks. we even have a name for it now; financial repression.  great, look what happened in 2000 and 2008.  the avg US citizen doesn't trust this strategy anymore and your rising dollar thesis would only reinforce their dollar hoarding.  what will chase them into stocks?  who's left to fuel the stock pump?  unlimited liquidity injections from the Fed to Wall St?  but wait, QE is going to terminate by the end of the year.

the other thing worth considering is 0 interest rates.  we seem to be at the lower bound altho i wouldn't doubt they'd try to shove negative rates down our throats. rising rates would kill everything i think.

mind you, i don't see any structural evidence we're near a top in the stock mkt.  for me, it's just a matter of timing and cycles.  we're overdue depending on what cycle you use.  doesn't mean it has to happen anytime soon though.

just things worth considering.

There is alot of fiat sitting around wondering where to go eur is a failed experiment so foriegn money and big players moving back into usd regardless of equities.. selling eur aud nzd buying jpy usd maybe gbp. Equities are kind of acting like gold right now so happens to rise regardless of usd especially since we havent entered euphoria where they rise regardless of earnings just like they fall regardless of crazy pe earning ratios.

I think ive already mentioned the rising rates argument isnt valid(yet) as it takes up to 8x our current rate to experience the tightening needed for a crash. Thats going by whats happened before. thats atleast 5 to 10 quarters.

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September 27, 2014, 06:01:12 AM
 #12782


Looks like they suggest governments should loan, and not pay back, re Argentina. I don't think they have the full picture.
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September 27, 2014, 02:30:26 PM
 #12783

US Military discussion on Virtual Currencies

http://www.cnbc.com/id/102033875

Bitcoin Lead Counsel, Rickards in attendance.

@JamesGRickards: Special Forces + #Bitcoin by @EamonJavers. "Bitcoin has to start talking to US intelligence" http://t.co/t7LYMrBgX0 @stacyherbert @Skoylesy

reply by Stacy Herbert

@stacyherbert: @JamesGRickards bitcoin is a public ledger, anyone can read it; big banks are where they should look @EamonJavers

Sometimes you only see what you want to see.
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September 27, 2014, 02:39:33 PM
 #12784

Skim this report, not one mention of Bitcoin. They're talking about a triple bottom in gold despite silver having broken down out of its consolidation pattern. Big mistake. Not only that, but all the masturbation around mining companies.

We are nowhere near a bubble in Bitcoin, as the gold bugs have yet to come (literally) :

http://www.theaureport.com/pub/na/16271

They ignore the Black Swan... Roll Eyes
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September 27, 2014, 03:07:14 PM
 #12785

US Military discussion on Virtual Currencies

http://www.cnbc.com/id/102033875

Bitcoin Lead Counsel, Rickards in attendance.

@JamesGRickards: Special Forces + #Bitcoin by @EamonJavers. "Bitcoin has to start talking to US intelligence" http://t.co/t7LYMrBgX0 @stacyherbert @Skoylesy

reply by Stacy Herbert

@stacyherbert: @JamesGRickards bitcoin is a public ledger, anyone can read it; big banks are where they should look @EamonJavers

Sometimes you only see what you want to see.

The group's members include a who's who of America's corporate and financial elite, according to its website, including Jeff Bezos of Amazon, former AIG CEO Hank Greenberg and David Koch of Koch Industries.


no wonder Amazon hasn't gotten onboard.
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September 28, 2014, 01:09:31 AM
 #12786

pretty classy presentation by Fred Ehrsam.  we need more from him.  what caught my ear was that Coinbase has 1.6 million confirmed users.  that's alot:

http://avc.com/2014/09/video-of-the-week-fred-ehrsams-bitcoin-presentation/

edit:  and with all that said, he didn't even talk about the SOV function.
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September 28, 2014, 01:28:37 AM
 #12787

https://twitter.com/cypherdoc2/status/516036591077560320
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September 28, 2014, 04:36:14 AM
 #12788

pretty classy presentation by Fred Ehrsam.  we need more from him.  what caught my ear was that Coinbase has 1.6 million confirmed users.  that's alot:

http://avc.com/2014/09/video-of-the-week-fred-ehrsams-bitcoin-presentation/

edit:  and with all that said, he didn't even talk about the SOV function.

I have to say it is getting annonyingly ignored these days (the SOV function)

I cringe at videos on youtube or reddit that claim : "Bitcoin it's more than just money".

As if money was not the most subversive aspect of Bitcoin.

"The real value is in the technology, not the currency"

These type of speech make me sick. One would not exist without the other.



Also. I'm cool with Coinbase, they're adding a whole lot of value to the ecosystem right now. But the reality is they are themselves a middle-man, that will eventually be cut loose when it is no longer needed


"I believe this will be the ultimate fate of Bitcoin, to be the "high-powered money" that serves as a reserve currency for banks that issue their own digital cash." Hal Finney, Dec. 2010
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September 28, 2014, 06:17:29 AM
 #12789

pretty classy presentation by Fred Ehrsam.  we need more from him.  what caught my ear was that Coinbase has 1.6 million confirmed users.  that's alot:

http://avc.com/2014/09/video-of-the-week-fred-ehrsams-bitcoin-presentation/

edit:  and with all that said, he didn't even talk about the SOV function.

I have to say it is getting annonyingly ignored these days (the SOV function)

I cringe at videos on youtube or reddit that claim : "Bitcoin it's more than just money".

As if money was not the most subversive aspect of Bitcoin.

"The real value is in the technology, not the currency"

These type of speech make me sick. One would not exist without the other.



Also. I'm cool with Coinbase, they're adding a whole lot of value to the ecosystem right now. But the reality is they are themselves a middle-man, that will eventually be cut loose when it is no longer needed



He's a payment processor so his mind is on one thing; processing. As opposed to someone like me who is a hodler.

Even in the Wences video, he had to apologize to Gallippi as he knows processing is his thing too.  As opposed to Wences who is a hodler.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=NERAN-89j8M&app=desktop
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September 28, 2014, 07:20:21 AM
 #12790

pretty classy presentation by Fred Ehrsam.  we need more from him.  what caught my ear was that Coinbase has 1.6 million confirmed users.  that's alot:

http://avc.com/2014/09/video-of-the-week-fred-ehrsams-bitcoin-presentation/

edit:  and with all that said, he didn't even talk about the SOV function.

Nice video! I thought bitcoin has around 1-2 million users. He said 5-10 million. It is easy to focus just the price and ignore that,
the system really is growing!

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September 28, 2014, 08:14:43 AM
 #12791

pretty classy presentation by Fred Ehrsam.  we need more from him.  what caught my ear was that Coinbase has 1.6 million confirmed users.  that's alot:

http://avc.com/2014/09/video-of-the-week-fred-ehrsams-bitcoin-presentation/

edit:  and with all that said, he didn't even talk about the SOV function.

I have to say it is getting annonyingly ignored these days (the SOV function)

I cringe at videos on youtube or reddit that claim : "Bitcoin it's more than just money".

As if money was not the most subversive aspect of Bitcoin.

"The real value is in the technology, not the currency"

These type of speech make me sick. One would not exist without the other.



Also. I'm cool with Coinbase, they're adding a whole lot of value to the ecosystem right now. But the reality is they are themselves a middle-man, that will eventually be cut loose when it is no longer needed



He's a payment processor so his mind is on one thing; processing. As opposed to someone like me who is a hodler.

Even in the Wences video, he had to apologize to Gallippi as he knows processing is his thing too.  As opposed to Wences who is a hodler.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=NERAN-89j8M&app=desktop

Bitcoin is a pretty - let's say - emotionally demanding store of wealth and not the most efficient payment system.

It's the combination of these two features and the trustless nature of the ledger that make Bitcoin unique.

I can't help but to feel a slight suspicion of deceit when Bitcoin is promoted hard and one-sidedly as a payment system.

Some people just can't seem to fathom the following is in the realm of possibility:



Maybe it's because they make money as part of the crossed-out scheme (It's hard to let go of a concept your paycheck depends on). Maybe it's because they believe "the government will never allow this". Maybe it's simply because of their indoctrination towards valueing little green pieces of paper.

Anyhow, it doesn't matter: if nothing really bad happens and nothing better takes over (which I currently put a low probability onto), things are just going to go the way depicted above:

Bitcoin will become an excellent store of value.

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September 28, 2014, 08:29:31 AM
 #12792

Looks like gold is holding steady while bitcoin has been down from the peak of $1,200 to less than $400

                                                                       
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September 28, 2014, 10:30:33 AM
 #12793


People have a very hard time imagining more than one change to the current system. They can imagine Bitcoin added to the current world, but they can't imagine a Bitcoin world. This is why the term "paradigm shift" exists. Humans don't engage more than one level of hypothetical without developing that skill specifically. To evaluate something as transformative as Bitcoin you have to imagine what the world would be like if many different things were to all change. In particular, you have to momentarily suspend disbelief and simply ask what would happen if Bitcoin took over. Because that's the scenario that matters, not "oh Amazon also accepts Bitcoin."
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September 28, 2014, 10:38:40 AM
 #12794

Bitcoin will become an excellent store of value.

Here's Jim Willie, an analyst and long-time gold bug, talking about how hilariously cumbersome gold is to deal with:

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September 28, 2014, 11:11:13 AM
 #12795

Bitcoin will become an excellent store of value.

Here's Jim Willie, an analyst and long-time gold bug, talking about how hilariously cumbersome gold is to deal with:



those explanations of the difficulties with storing/moving gold remind me of that dude on reddit has (or came up with as a story):

So there is a chance, quite large, that I am going to go to prison for a while. A long while. That's aside the point. The question I have brought to your proposal is could I convert all my money to bitcoins and safely store them for 20 years without anyone, including myself, having access to them? Or would they eventually be seem as unused money and collected by the holding company? Very interested in this.

The things you can do with Bitcoin... it's amazing, really.

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September 28, 2014, 02:23:23 PM
 #12796

pretty classy presentation by Fred Ehrsam.  we need more from him.  what caught my ear was that Coinbase has 1.6 million confirmed users.  that's alot:

http://avc.com/2014/09/video-of-the-week-fred-ehrsams-bitcoin-presentation/

edit:  and with all that said, he didn't even talk about the SOV function.

This number is something that bothers me. According to bitcoinrichlist.com [1], there are only about 1.6 million addresses with a current value of more than 0.001 (= $ 0.40 currently). Assuming, that each bitcoin holder has to control at least one address, this feels a bit wrong. I assume there are a many ways to explain this:

1) All bitcoin holders currently owning more than $ 0.40 in bitcoin are also coinbase users. -- Somehow this seems to be unlikely.
2) Coinbase sugarcoated their stats.
3) A significant amount of coinbase bitcoin users does not hold the private key for their bitcoins. (EDIT: thx to FNG)
4) A significant amount of coinbase users bought coins with a total value less than $ 0.40. -- Is this even possible or rational because of fees?
5) Stats of bitcoinrichlist.com are wrong. -- Are there alternatives that provide the same data?

Am I missing something?


[1] http://bitcoinrichlist.com/charts/bitcoin-distribution-by-address?atblock=320000
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September 28, 2014, 02:29:58 PM
 #12797

pretty classy presentation by Fred Ehrsam.  we need more from him.  what caught my ear was that Coinbase has 1.6 million confirmed users.  that's alot:

http://avc.com/2014/09/video-of-the-week-fred-ehrsams-bitcoin-presentation/

edit:  and with all that said, he didn't even talk about the SOV function.

This number is something that bothers me. According to bitcoinrichlist.com [1], there are only about 1.6 million addresses with a current value of more than 0.001 (= $ 0.40 currently). Assuming, that each bitcoin holder has to control at least one address, this feels a bit wrong. I assume there are a many ways to explain this:

1) All bitcoin holders currently owning more than $ 0.40 in bitcoin are also coinbase users. -- Somehow this seems to be unlikely.
2) Coinbase sugarcoated their stats.
3) A significant amount of coinbase users does not hold the private key for their bitcoins.
4) A significant amount of coinbase users bought coins with a total value less than $ 0.40. -- Is this even possible or rational because of fees?
5) Stats of bitcoinrichlist.com are wrong. -- Are there alternatives that provide the same data?

Am I missing something?


[1] http://bitcoinrichlist.com/charts/bitcoin-distribution-by-address?atblock=320000

I think coinbase keeps >90% off coins in cold storage.
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September 28, 2014, 02:30:54 PM
 #12798

...
Some people just can't seem to fathom the following is in the realm of possibility:



...

>Person A
>Person B
>No Person C

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September 28, 2014, 02:34:02 PM
 #12799

pretty classy presentation by Fred Ehrsam.  we need more from him.  what caught my ear was that Coinbase has 1.6 million confirmed users.  that's alot:

http://avc.com/2014/09/video-of-the-week-fred-ehrsams-bitcoin-presentation/

edit:  and with all that said, he didn't even talk about the SOV function.

This number is something that bothers me. According to bitcoinrichlist.com [1], there are only about 1.6 million addresses with a current value of more than 0.001 (= $ 0.40 currently). Assuming, that each bitcoin holder has to control at least one address, this feels a bit wrong. I assume there are a many ways to explain this:

1) All bitcoin holders currently owning more than $ 0.40 in bitcoin are also coinbase users. -- Somehow this seems to be unlikely.
2) Coinbase sugarcoated their stats.
3) A significant amount of coinbase users does not hold the private key for their bitcoins.
4) A significant amount of coinbase users bought coins with a total value less than $ 0.40. -- Is this even possible or rational because of fees?
5) Stats of bitcoinrichlist.com are wrong. -- Are there alternatives that provide the same data?

Am I missing something?


[1] http://bitcoinrichlist.com/charts/bitcoin-distribution-by-address?atblock=320000

3   + people who keep btc on exchanges
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September 28, 2014, 03:05:22 PM
 #12800

pretty classy presentation by Fred Ehrsam.  we need more from him.  what caught my ear was that Coinbase has 1.6 million confirmed users.  that's alot:

http://avc.com/2014/09/video-of-the-week-fred-ehrsams-bitcoin-presentation/

edit:  and with all that said, he didn't even talk about the SOV function.

This number is something that bothers me. According to bitcoinrichlist.com [1], there are only about 1.6 million addresses with a current value of more than 0.001 (= $ 0.40 currently). Assuming, that each bitcoin holder has to control at least one address, this feels a bit wrong. I assume there are a many ways to explain this:

1) All bitcoin holders currently owning more than $ 0.40 in bitcoin are also coinbase users. -- Somehow this seems to be unlikely.
2) Coinbase sugarcoated their stats.
3) A significant amount of coinbase users does not hold the private key for their bitcoins.
4) A significant amount of coinbase users bought coins with a total value less than $ 0.40. -- Is this even possible or rational because of fees?
5) Stats of bitcoinrichlist.com are wrong. -- Are there alternatives that provide the same data?

Am I missing something?


[1] http://bitcoinrichlist.com/charts/bitcoin-distribution-by-address?atblock=320000

How about some people have more than one address.  With a market cap at 5,240,808,508 and 1,600,000 users, that is $3275.50 per user.  Of course, there are more users than coinbase users.  I know I don't have all my funds on a single address.

Also, there is the fact that coinbase btc for multiple users are stored on a single address that is in cold storage.

Point being, there is not a 1-1 correspondence between users and addresses.

https://www.bitcoin.org/bitcoin.pdf
While no idea is perfect, some ideas are useful.
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