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Author Topic: Gold collapsing. Bitcoin UP.  (Read 1808736 times)
smoothie
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September 28, 2014, 09:35:26 PM
 #12841

Trolls are getting overconfident  Cheesy

Am I a troll because I dare speak to the all powerful wealthy elite?

Who's saying you can't speak?

Its what you say that matters.

Maybe there should have been more people like Gavin Andresen warning people about the risks of buying a remarkable new tool at nevertheless outrageously inflated prices?

You can't blame anyone but yourself for buying Bitcoin at a certain price. Had the price gone up you would have a different tune.

Stop blaming others for your inadequacies. Thanks!  Grin Grin Grin

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September 28, 2014, 09:37:45 PM
 #12842

Think about how much money was invested, both by consumers and manufacturers, into pushing the difficulty up several orders of magnitude over the past year. That's all money that could have and arguably would have been invested into driving the BTC price up. A lot of the fresh fiat has been going into the mining industry instead of the price. This is of course self-limiting, and so with all that investment happening behind the scenes, when the curtain is pulled back (when buying mining equipment becomes unprofitable), without any outside reason for the investment to slow down, it should start funneling back into the price.

yes, this is a variation of my bucket theory in which different components of the Bitcoin economny take on water at different rates and different times to different levels.  the main point being that the water levels of all buckets are rising in aggregate.

So it's like the hose is the exponentially growing stream of new money coming into the Bitcoin investment space, and it just goes into different buckets, one of which is actual price growth. That means as long as either price or mining (or perhaps VC money into startups?) continue upward then nothing is amiss.
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September 28, 2014, 09:41:37 PM
 #12843

Trolls are getting overconfident  Cheesy

Am I a troll because I dare speak to the all powerful wealthy elite?

Who's saying you can't speak?

Its what you say that matters.

Maybe there should have been more people like Gavin Andresen warning people about the risks of buying a remarkable new tool at nevertheless outrageously inflated prices?

You can't blame anyone but yourself for buying Bitcoin at a certain price. Had the price gone up you would have a different tune.

Stop blaming others for your inadequacies. Thanks!  Grin Grin Grin

Lol at my inadequacies. I'm already hiding my face in shame guys. Lay off

Tough crowd huh Wink

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September 28, 2014, 09:54:47 PM
 #12844

Think about how much money was invested, both by consumers and manufacturers, into pushing the difficulty up several orders of magnitude over the past year. That's all money that could have and arguably would have been invested into driving the BTC price up. A lot of the fresh fiat has been going into the mining industry instead of the price. This is of course self-limiting, and so with all that investment happening behind the scenes, when the curtain is pulled back (when buying mining equipment becomes unprofitable), without any outside reason for the investment to slow down, it should start funneling back into the price.

yes, this is a variation of my bucket theory in which different components of the Bitcoin economny take on water at different rates and different times to different levels.  the main point being that the water levels of all buckets are rising in aggregate.

So it's like the hose is the exponentially growing stream of new money coming into the Bitcoin investment space, and it just goes into different buckets, one of which is actual price growth. That means as long as either price or mining (or perhaps VC money into startups?) continue upward then nothing is amiss.

yeah, my personal buckets are price, consumer adoption, merchants, exchanges, mining, +/- ATM's.  for a while now we've been seeing increases in basically everything except the price, which is the most speculative bucket of them all that varies most with sentiment and cyclical variation.  we're in a bear cycle which will eventually bottom out.  it's a good time to buy and then hold at least to 2020.

of course, all this is predicated on a belief in the fundamentals of Bitcoin and its real world relationship to finance and the economy, which is what we discuss in this thread ad nauseum.  if you think its all been one massive pump and dump from mass illusion then you sell or short.  but by my estimation, nothing has changed.  you have to be very suspicious that we've had numerous ramps since 2009 that have been recoveries from huge crashes.  ponzi's don't bounce.  something is going on here.
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September 28, 2014, 10:02:42 PM
 #12845

Trolls are getting overconfident  Cheesy

Am I a troll because I dare speak to the all powerful wealthy elite?

Who's saying you can't speak?

Its what you say that matters.

Maybe there should have been more people like Gavin Andresen warning people about the risks of buying a remarkable new tool at nevertheless outrageously inflated prices?

You can't blame anyone but yourself for buying Bitcoin at a certain price. Had the price gone up you would have a different tune.

Stop blaming others for your inadequacies. Thanks!  Grin Grin Grin

Lol at my inadequacies. I'm already hiding my face in shame guys. Lay off

no need to.  everyone has to learn the fundamentals, even as a later early adopter  Wink

i'm just relieved you're not one of what i think are bank trolls hammering Reddit today.  we had one punk put up a troll post this morning so i'm on high alert:

http://www.reddit.com/r/Bitcoin/comments/2hp0wp/i_had_a_weirdunsettling_bitcoin_experience_and/

after being challenged by me, the troll just disappeared.
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September 28, 2014, 10:03:07 PM
 #12846

Inflationary spiral ? If cost of electricity is bigger than price of bitcoin and miners turn off their asics then nobody is unable to mine. It will take years until difficulty dropped. (it will take months to mine 2016 blocks by hobby miners to adjust difficulty (instead of 14 days) )
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September 28, 2014, 10:11:02 PM
 #12847

Inflationary spiral ? If cost of electricity is bigger than price of bitcoin and miners turn off their asics then nobody is unable to mine. It will take years until difficulty dropped. (it will take months to mine 2016 blocks by hobby miners to adjust difficulty (instead of 14 days) )

it won't happen that way. 

you won't get a huge dropoff in hashing rate to cause such an air gap.  if we do, that would be a huge security risk for the network.  more likely though, if it has to happen at all, is that large mines go out and get USD loans to pay their variable costs to get them thru what will hopefully be from here a short term drop in the price.  that is, if they've managed their costs properly for a rainy day like we have now.  sure we could see a drop but it won't be dramatic.  they have to keep those asics running while they're still top of the line tech.  guys like me will also mine out of public duty, even if at a loss, so as to protect my overall investment in the space.  which is also why i run a bunch of full nodes.
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September 28, 2014, 10:14:22 PM
 #12848

I can see hash rate dropping off at some point. It won't drop off in any huge way but it will stabilize the market given the constant increase in diff and the constant decrease in price.

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           ▐▓▓▓▓▓▓▓▓▓▓▓▓▓▓▓▓▌          
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        ▀▓▓▓▓▓▓▓▓▓▓▓▓▓▓▓▓▓▓▓▓▓▓▀       
           ²▀▀▓▓▓▓▓▓▓▓▓▓▓▓▀▀`          
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September 28, 2014, 10:17:16 PM
 #12849

Quote
Honeybadger is bleeding to death. What's next guys?

we hit the cost of production floor, maybe undershoot by5-10%, coins become cheaper to buy than mine, some hashrate goes offline ... then the next super cycle can begin again.

That's what next you blind old fool Wink

This.  I said months ago that we won't truly bottom until ASICs saturate and hashrate begins to taper.

https://www.bitcoin.org/bitcoin.pdf
While no idea is perfect, some ideas are useful.
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September 28, 2014, 10:20:27 PM
 #12850

Inflationary spiral ? If cost of electricity is bigger than price of bitcoin and miners turn off their asics then nobody is unable to mine. It will take years until difficulty dropped. (it will take months to mine 2016 blocks by hobby miners to adjust difficulty (instead of 14 days) )

it won't happen that way. 

you won't get a huge dropoff in hashing rate to cause such an air gap.  if we do, that would be a huge security risk for the network.  more likely though, if it has to happen at all, is that large mines go out and get USD loans to pay their variable costs to get them thru what will hopefully be from here a short term drop in the price.  that is, if they've managed their costs properly for a rainy day like we have now.  sure we could see a drop but it won't be dramatic.  they have to keep those asics running while they're still top of the line tech.  guys like me will also mine out of public duty, even if at a loss, so as to protect my overall investment in the space.  which is also why i run a bunch of full nodes.

Yes, you will mine, because you want to protect your investment (as hobby miner), but what about mining farm(10,000,000 Ghash ..10%) will they pay millions of dollars for electricity.
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September 28, 2014, 10:23:51 PM
 #12851

Inflationary spiral ? If cost of electricity is bigger than price of bitcoin and miners turn off their asics then nobody is unable to mine. It will take years until difficulty dropped. (it will take months to mine 2016 blocks by hobby miners to adjust difficulty (instead of 14 days) )

it won't happen that way. 

you won't get a huge dropoff in hashing rate to cause such an air gap.  if we do, that would be a huge security risk for the network.  more likely though, if it has to happen at all, is that large mines go out and get USD loans to pay their variable costs to get them thru what will hopefully be from here a short term drop in the price.  that is, if they've managed their costs properly for a rainy day like we have now.  sure we could see a drop but it won't be dramatic.  they have to keep those asics running while they're still top of the line tech.  guys like me will also mine out of public duty, even if at a loss, so as to protect my overall investment in the space.  which is also why i run a bunch of full nodes.

Yes, you will mine, because you want to protect your investment (as hobby miner), but what about mining farm(10,000,000 Ghash ..10%) will they pay millions of dollars for electricity.

as i said in my post, i think they will go out and get loans or offer equity financing if necessary to keep themselves running.  sure, its possible that a few players get shaken out but we are not going to see a precipitous drop in hashing rate.
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September 28, 2014, 10:26:42 PM
 #12852

Inflationary spiral ? If cost of electricity is bigger than price of bitcoin and miners turn off their asics then nobody is unable to mine. It will take years until difficulty dropped. (it will take months to mine 2016 blocks by hobby miners to adjust difficulty (instead of 14 days) )

it won't happen that way. 

you won't get a huge dropoff in hashing rate to cause such an air gap.  if we do, that would be a huge security risk for the network.  more likely though, if it has to happen at all, is that large mines go out and get USD loans to pay their variable costs to get them thru what will hopefully be from here a short term drop in the price.  that is, if they've managed their costs properly for a rainy day like we have now.  sure we could see a drop but it won't be dramatic.  they have to keep those asics running while they're still top of the line tech.  guys like me will also mine out of public duty, even if at a loss, so as to protect my overall investment in the space.  which is also why i run a bunch of full nodes.

Yes, you will mine, because you want to protect your investment (as hobby miner), but what about mining farm(10,000,000 Ghash ..10%) will they pay millions of dollars for electricity.

as i said in my post, i think they will go out and get loans or offer equity financing if necessary to keep themselves running.  sure, its possible that a few players get shaken out but we are not going to see a precipitous drop in hashing rate.

what i suspect will happen is a shake out of some of the smaller miners once they reach the point that they cant afford to mine anymore leaving a further monopoly of big time miners. whether you like it or not, this is leading to further centralization. the big guys can last longer at a loss than the small guys.

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September 28, 2014, 10:29:03 PM
 #12853

coindesk article re: us military, intelligence and btc

http://www.coindesk.com/us-military-command-holds-educational-meeting-bitcoin-industry/
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September 28, 2014, 10:35:32 PM
 #12854

Inflationary spiral ? If cost of electricity is bigger than price of bitcoin and miners turn off their asics then nobody is unable to mine. It will take years until difficulty dropped. (it will take months to mine 2016 blocks by hobby miners to adjust difficulty (instead of 14 days) )

it won't happen that way. 

you won't get a huge dropoff in hashing rate to cause such an air gap.  if we do, that would be a huge security risk for the network.  more likely though, if it has to happen at all, is that large mines go out and get USD loans to pay their variable costs to get them thru what will hopefully be from here a short term drop in the price.  that is, if they've managed their costs properly for a rainy day like we have now.  sure we could see a drop but it won't be dramatic.  they have to keep those asics running while they're still top of the line tech.  guys like me will also mine out of public duty, even if at a loss, so as to protect my overall investment in the space.  which is also why i run a bunch of full nodes.

Yes, you will mine, because you want to protect your investment (as hobby miner), but what about mining farm(10,000,000 Ghash ..10%) will they pay millions of dollars for electricity.

as i said in my post, i think they will go out and get loans or offer equity financing if necessary to keep themselves running.  sure, its possible that a few players get shaken out but we are not going to see a precipitous drop in hashing rate.

I think it will be same ... but this implies, price of bitcoin cannot drop under mining costs. ... and this implies (if you look at hashrate) that price must be growing by 1 order of magnitude every 8 months. ... or some disaster will come

... I do not know the result, but it will be BIG next year (cannot wait) :-)
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September 28, 2014, 10:45:08 PM
 #12855

Inflationary spiral ? If cost of electricity is bigger than price of bitcoin and miners turn off their asics then nobody is unable to mine. It will take years until difficulty dropped. (it will take months to mine 2016 blocks by hobby miners to adjust difficulty (instead of 14 days) )

it won't happen that way. 

you won't get a huge dropoff in hashing rate to cause such an air gap.  if we do, that would be a huge security risk for the network.  more likely though, if it has to happen at all, is that large mines go out and get USD loans to pay their variable costs to get them thru what will hopefully be from here a short term drop in the price.  that is, if they've managed their costs properly for a rainy day like we have now.  sure we could see a drop but it won't be dramatic.  they have to keep those asics running while they're still top of the line tech.  guys like me will also mine out of public duty, even if at a loss, so as to protect my overall investment in the space.  which is also why i run a bunch of full nodes.

Yes, you will mine, because you want to protect your investment (as hobby miner), but what about mining farm(10,000,000 Ghash ..10%) will they pay millions of dollars for electricity.

as i said in my post, i think they will go out and get loans or offer equity financing if necessary to keep themselves running.  sure, its possible that a few players get shaken out but we are not going to see a precipitous drop in hashing rate.

I think it will be same ... but this implies, price of bitcoin cannot drop under mining costs. ... and this implies (if you look at hashrate) that price must be growing by 1 order of magnitude every 8 months. ... or some disaster will come

... I do not know the result, but it will be BIG next year (cannot wait) :-)

whoever these guys are that are throwing so much fiat into mining eventually will realize it's just cheaper and easier to buy coins directly.
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September 28, 2014, 10:48:09 PM
 #12856

Inflationary spiral ? If cost of electricity is bigger than price of bitcoin and miners turn off their asics then nobody is unable to mine. It will take years until difficulty dropped. (it will take months to mine 2016 blocks by hobby miners to adjust difficulty (instead of 14 days) )

it won't happen that way. 

you won't get a huge dropoff in hashing rate to cause such an air gap.  if we do, that would be a huge security risk for the network.  more likely though, if it has to happen at all, is that large mines go out and get USD loans to pay their variable costs to get them thru what will hopefully be from here a short term drop in the price.  that is, if they've managed their costs properly for a rainy day like we have now.  sure we could see a drop but it won't be dramatic.  they have to keep those asics running while they're still top of the line tech.  guys like me will also mine out of public duty, even if at a loss, so as to protect my overall investment in the space.  which is also why i run a bunch of full nodes.

Yes, you will mine, because you want to protect your investment (as hobby miner), but what about mining farm(10,000,000 Ghash ..10%) will they pay millions of dollars for electricity.

as i said in my post, i think they will go out and get loans or offer equity financing if necessary to keep themselves running.  sure, its possible that a few players get shaken out but we are not going to see a precipitous drop in hashing rate.

what i suspect will happen is a shake out of some of the smaller miners once they reach the point that they cant afford to mine anymore leaving a further monopoly of big time miners. whether you like it or not, this is leading to further centralization. the big guys can last longer at a loss than the small guys.

i'm still waiting  Roll Eyes

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September 28, 2014, 11:04:13 PM
 #12857

from the top at 1163 on Bitstamp, we are only down 67-68%.  that's not bad, nor unusual, for Bitcoin pullbacks.

try 32 --> 1.98.
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September 28, 2014, 11:21:59 PM
 #12858

I've said it ten times the past month....this "situation" in mining does not lead to centralization, exactly the opposite.

You know when you guys keep harping about "economy of scale" well that doesn't always mean what you obviously think it means.

You need to rethink the difference between a hobbyist miner with a couple of TH running in their basement vs a commercial building being supplied with a 0.5MW supply and transformer, and wiring performed by electricians, and CSA/UL/CE inspections, and liability insurance, and cooling the building doubling your electrical draw....and a myriad of other expenses that little children like yourselves have never encountered because you have never leased a commercial building to set up a business and you have no idea of the intricacies of business dealings at that scale.

I can't see how they are doing it when I consider the logistics and costs....certainly not with the efficiencies we have today at sub $400 prices.
 

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September 28, 2014, 11:25:18 PM
 #12859

$DXY opens up; this is still causing a problem for all risk assets:

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September 28, 2014, 11:41:00 PM
 #12860

from the top at 1163 on Bitstamp, we are only down 67-68%.  that's not bad, nor unusual, for Bitcoin pullbacks.

try 32 --> 1.98.


Yup.

2011 pullback was: -94%
2013 (April) drop was: -81%

Wouldn't be unreasonable to max out in the -70% range on this one.

Bitcoin is the first monetary system to credibly offer perfect information to all economic participants.
But Bitcointalk & /r/bitcoin are heavily censored. bitco.in/forum, forum.bitcoin.com, and /r/btc are open.
Best info on Casascius coins: http://spotcoins.com/casascius
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