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Author Topic: Gold collapsing. Bitcoin UP.  (Read 1804278 times)
cypherdoc
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September 28, 2014, 07:00:07 PM
 #12821

It's a sign of me being annoyed by the influx of dogetards

You feel annoyed because your position is vulnerable, like anyone else's whose only crypto is Bitcoin.

And your constant shilling here for POS, despite claiming you were done with this thread, indicates you are worried that your investment in pos is vulnerable.
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September 28, 2014, 07:04:36 PM
 #12822

It's a sign of me being annoyed by the influx of dogetards

You feel annoyed because your position is vulnerable, like anyone else's whose only crypto is Bitcoin.

And your constant shilling here for POS, despite claiming you were done with this thread, indicates you are worried that your investment in pos is vulnerable.

You're shilling for Bitcoin, telling newbies to buy a losing investment and be bagholders for early adopters who are in this position:
it'll need to get into single digits before we feel any pain.

Oh and I didn't mention PoS. I said to hedge against Bitcoin decline. They need to research themselves what to hedge with.
ssmc2
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September 28, 2014, 07:11:52 PM
 #12823

Hey devphp try the dogetalk forums  Cheesy
Peter R
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September 28, 2014, 07:14:18 PM
 #12824

BlindMayorBitcorn, you're suffering from a version of the "I-don't-want-to-make-early-adopters-rich" fallacy:

The forum is slow today, so I thought I'd share a thought that hit me yesterday.  

"I don't want to make early adopters rich."

I've heard this said in person and I've read it in reader comments on MSM articles.  But is doesn't actually make sense.  The benefit to early adopters moving forward in time is exactly the same as to adopters who choose to buy today.  Early adopters may already be rich, but if that's true then it's already happened.  As of right now, it is just as risky to continue to hold, as it is to choose to buy.  

Consider this:  Alice and Bob each have $1,000,000 in financial assets.  Alice is an early adopter of bitcoin and holds half her wealth in BTC.  Bob just learned about bitcoin today, and holds 100% of his wealth in US treasuries and stocks.  The risk Bob takes by moving $500,00 into BTC simply puts him at the same risk level as Alice moving forward in time.  The fact that Alice's bitcoins performed well in the past has no bearing on portfolio allocation moving forward.  Alice choosing to continue to hold $500,000 in bitcoin is just as risky as Bob deciding to buy $500,000 of BTC.  

The public cannot make early adopters un-rich by not investing in bitcoin.  And by investing in bitcoin, the public makes early and current investors rich to the exact same degree from this point in time moving forward.


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cypherdoc
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September 28, 2014, 07:16:49 PM
 #12825

It's a sign of me being annoyed by the influx of dogetards

You feel annoyed because your position is vulnerable, like anyone else's whose only crypto is Bitcoin.

And your constant shilling here for POS, despite claiming you were done with this thread, indicates you are worried that your investment in pos is vulnerable.

You're shilling for Bitcoin, telling newbies to buy a losing investment and be bagholders for early adopters who are in this position:
it'll need to get into single digits before we feel any pain.

Oh and I didn't mention PoS. I said to hedge against Bitcoin decline. They need to research themselves what to hedge with.

Once again, you totally distort and misunderstand the situation.

My definition of a  shill is someone who is paid to temporarily jump into an issue they don't fundamentally understand and push an agenda for a vested interest. This thread and my position as an early adopter is the antithesis of that. Basically, you're taking the idiotic position that because I said what I did in that quote, that anything positive I have to say about Bitcoin should be disregarded.

Well, there happen to be a hell of alot of people who disagree with you if the number of views for this thread is any indication, not to mention it has  been going on for over 3 years. There are  plenty of valuable things I and others have had to say here, unlike you, that people come to read. Including you, despite your promise to exit awhile ago.
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September 28, 2014, 07:19:58 PM
 #12826

Trolls are getting overconfident  Cheesy

▂▃▅▇█▓▒░BTC-Cultist░▒▓█▇▅▃▂
ssmc2
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September 28, 2014, 07:22:26 PM
 #12827

Trolls are getting overconfident  Cheesy

This is a good sign  Wink
cypherdoc
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September 28, 2014, 07:24:09 PM
 #12828

BlindMayorBitcorn, you're suffering from a version of the "I-don't-want-to-make-early-adopters-rich" fallacy:

[quote author =Peter R link=topic=517759.msg5723326#msg5723326 date=1394948300]
The forum is slow today, so I thought I'd share a thought that hit me yesterday.  

"I don't want to make early adopters rich."

I've heard this said in person and I've read it in reader comments on MSM articles.  But is doesn't actually make sense.  The benefit to early adopters moving forward in time is exactly the same as to adopters who choose to buy today.  Early adopters may already be rich, but if that's true then it's already happened.  As of right now, it is just as risky to continue to hold, as it is to choose to buy.  

Consider this:  Alice and Bob each have $1,000,000 in financial assets.  Alice is an early adopter of bitcoin and holds half her wealth in BTC.  Bob just learned about bitcoin today, and holds 100% of his wealth in US treasuries and stocks.  The risk Bob takes by moving $500,00 into BTC simply puts him at the same risk level as Alice moving forward in time.  The fact that Alice's bitcoins performed well in the past has no bearing on portfolio allocation moving forward.  Alice choosing to continue to hold $500,000 in bitcoin is just as risky as Bob deciding to buy $500,000 of BTC.  

The public cannot make early adopters un-rich by not investing in bitcoin.  And by investing in bitcoin, the public makes early and current investors rich to the exact same degree from this point in time moving forward.


What if Bob didn't have jack shit to begin with. Just sayin'
[/quote]

The whole early adopter argument is ludicrous. They  took enormous risks with hard earned fiat to get this project off the ground.

Furthermore, name one other investment in the world that doesn't have this early adopter dynamic.
cypherdoc
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September 28, 2014, 07:26:15 PM
 #12829

Trolls are getting overconfident  Cheesy

Am I a troll because I dare speak to the all powerful wealthy elite?

Who's saying you can't speak?

Its what you say that matters.
Peter R
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September 28, 2014, 07:35:15 PM
 #12830

What if Bob didn't have jack shit to begin with. Just sayin'

My example works with $1,000,000, with $100,000 or with $10,000 of financial assets.  If Bob truly had nothing, then even if he mined a few thousand coins in 2010, he would have probably sold them for a few thousand dollar first chance he got.  It takes a very special type of person to hold a large number of bitcoins--with no other significant assets--over the several orders of magnitude growth in price we've witnessed.  

There's this strange belief among some newbies that people who had 1,000+ BTC in 2010 still have 1,000+ BTC.  In the vast majority of cases, this is patently false.  Most "early adopters" have been divesting in order to rebalance their portfolios, otherwise they'd end up with 99% of their wealth in bitcoin (and a severe case of insomnia lol).  In fact, many "early adopters" divested far too much and now push their favourite foo-coin, hoping for another chance.  

If we see another growth spurt, and if you are holding a non-negligible amount of bitcoins, you'll understand for yourself how strong the pressure to diversify out of bitcoin is.  If you don't divest on the way up, you'll panic sell at the bottom of the proceeding crash.  This is bitcoin's distribution mechanism in action.  

Run Bitcoin Unlimited (www.bitcoinunlimited.info)
BlindMayorBitcorn
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September 28, 2014, 07:36:54 PM
 #12831

What if Bob didn't have jack shit to begin with. Just sayin'

My example works with $1,000,000, with $100,000 or with $10,000 of financial assets.  If Bob truly had nothing, then even if he mined a few thousand coins in 2010, he would have probably sold them for a few thousand dollar first chance he got.  It takes a very special type of person to hold a large number of bitcoins--with no other significant assets--over the several orders of magnitude growth in price we've witnesses. 

There's this strange belief among some newbies that people who had 1,000+ BTC in 2010 still have 1,000+ BTC.  In the vast majority of cases, this is patently false.  Most "early adopters" have been divesting in order to rebalance their portfolios, otherwise they'd end up with 99% of their wealth in bitcoin (and a severe case of insomnia lol).  In fact, many "early adopters" divested far too much and now push their favourite foo-coin, hoping for another chance. 

If we see another growth spurt, and if you are holding a non-neglible amount of bitcoins, you'll understand for yourself how strong the pressure to diversify out of bitcoin is.  If you don't divest on the way up, you'll panic sell at the bottom of the proceeding crash.  This is bitcoin's distribution mechanism in action. 

I see your point

Forgive my petulance and oft-times, I fear, ill-founded criticisms, and forgive me that I have, by this time, made your eyes and head ache with my long letter. But I cannot forgo hastily the pleasure and pride of thus conversing with you.
cypherdoc
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September 28, 2014, 07:39:48 PM
 #12832

Trolls are getting overconfident  Cheesy

Am I a troll because I dare speak to the all powerful wealthy elite?

Who's saying you can't speak?

Its what you say that matters.

Maybe there should have been more people like Gavin Andresen warning people about the risks of buying a remarkable new tool at nevertheless outrageously inflated prices?

This is precisely why you're going to have a bad time in this thread;  that suggestion is idiotic.

How is Gavin, of all people supposed to know what is an outrageous price?  And how's it his responsibility? You made the choice to invest at 550. That's your problem.
Zangelbert Bingledack
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September 28, 2014, 08:05:58 PM
 #12833

Although this is old hat for many here, I put together a little explanation that may help people see how mining difficulty affects the bitcoin price.





Think about how much money was invested, both by consumers and manufacturers, into pushing the difficulty up several orders of magnitude over the past year. That's all money that could have and arguably would have been invested into driving the BTC price up. A lot of the fresh fiat has been going into the mining industry instead of the price. This is of course self-limiting, and so with all that investment happening behind the scenes, when the curtain is pulled back (when buying mining equipment becomes unprofitable), without any outside reason for the investment to slow down, it should start funneling back into the price.
Odalv
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September 28, 2014, 08:08:08 PM
 #12834

Trolls are getting overconfident  Cheesy

Am I a troll because I dare speak to the all powerful wealthy elite?

Who's saying you can't speak?

Its what you say that matters.

Maybe there should have been more people like Gavin Andresen warning people about the risks of buying a remarkable new tool at nevertheless outrageously inflated prices?

This is precisely why you're going to have a bad time in this thread;  that suggestion is idiotic.

How is Gavin, of all people supposed to know what is an outrageous price?  And how's it his responsibility? You made the choice to invest at 550. That's your problem.

btw: 550 is not so bad price. I've bought a few at this price. Only 1 (of few millions) will be buying at the bottom. Others will buy much higher.
Peter R
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September 28, 2014, 08:28:18 PM
 #12835

Although this is old hat for many here, I put together a little explanation that may help people see how mining profitability affects the bitcoin price.
...

Thanks for that review. 

There's also the fact that when the hash rate is rapidly increasing, the daily inflation rate is much higher than the 3600 BTC/day target.  For example, the daily inflation rate is 5143 BTC and 4500 BTC at 7 min and 8 min blocktimes, respectively.  If market participants in aggregate choose to purchase rather than invest in new mining hardware, the new supply of coins will drop significantly.  Compared to the 4500 BTC/day case, at a stable hash rate there'd be 900 less bitcoins produced each day.  At $400/BTC, this represents a $360,000/day reduction in supply, which would tend to apply upwards pressure on the price (all other variables being equal).   

Run Bitcoin Unlimited (www.bitcoinunlimited.info)
Melbustus
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September 28, 2014, 08:28:49 PM
 #12836

Trolls are getting overconfident  Cheesy

Am I a troll because I dare speak to the all powerful wealthy elite?

Who's saying you can't speak?

Its what you say that matters.

... outrageously inflated prices?


Show me a model.

Most models show bitcoin's success-case necessitating a price several orders of magnitude higher than today's. Obviously it comes down to what probability you assign to the success-case materializing, but even the relatively minor success-cases require 1BTC > $10,000.

The price could've shot to $5000 last year and it would still be false to have called it "outrageously inflated" (assuming you can't show me a model that makes sense to that effect).

(To be fair, I don't day-trade, so I'm not going to pay much attention to arguments based on technicals, as those are mostly irrelevant for those who think long-term (which is probably most of us in this thread))


Bitcoin is the first monetary system to credibly offer perfect information to all economic participants.
But Bitcointalk & /r/bitcoin are heavily censored. bitco.in/forum, forum.bitcoin.com, and /r/btc are open.
Best info on Casascius coins: http://spotcoins.com/casascius
marcus_of_augustus
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September 28, 2014, 09:05:57 PM
 #12837

Quote
Honeybadger is bleeding to death. What's next guys?

we hit the cost of production floor, maybe undershoot by5-10%, coins become cheaper to buy than mine, some hashrate goes offline ... then the next super cycle can begin again.

That's what next you blind old fool Wink

BlindMayorBitcorn
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September 28, 2014, 09:08:32 PM
 #12838

Ok then. *hides face in shame*

Forgive my petulance and oft-times, I fear, ill-founded criticisms, and forgive me that I have, by this time, made your eyes and head ache with my long letter. But I cannot forgo hastily the pleasure and pride of thus conversing with you.
cypherdoc
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September 28, 2014, 09:09:45 PM
 #12839

Think about how much money was invested, both by consumers and manufacturers, into pushing the difficulty up several orders of magnitude over the past year. That's all money that could have and arguably would have been invested into driving the BTC price up. A lot of the fresh fiat has been going into the mining industry instead of the price. This is of course self-limiting, and so with all that investment happening behind the scenes, when the curtain is pulled back (when buying mining equipment becomes unprofitable), without any outside reason for the investment to slow down, it should start funneling back into the price.

yes, this is a variation of my bucket theory in which different components of the Bitcoin economny take on water at different rates and different times to different levels.  the main point being that the water levels of all buckets are rising in aggregate.
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September 28, 2014, 09:30:15 PM
 #12840


Think about how much money was invested, both by consumers and manufacturers, into pushing the difficulty up several orders of magnitude over the past year. ...

I did just done the calculation. If trend will hold then it is one order of magnitude every 8 months.

Edit:
Cost of production of 1 bitcoin can be $1,000 before half of 2015.( @10 cents / kWh )
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