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Question: Will you support Gavin's new block size limit hard fork of 8MB by January 1, 2016 then doubling every 2 years?
1.  yes
2.  no

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Author Topic: Gold collapsing. Bitcoin UP.  (Read 1804937 times)
Zarathustra
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July 13, 2015, 07:37:40 AM
 #28741

I will delete this post. This is perhaps my last FYI to try to help the fools here.

The catalysts. Some years ago I independently happenstanced on (discovered) Martin Armstrong's 78.9 (79) year cycle of real estate (which I also correlated to technological unemployment cycles). So when I later discovered Armstrong's cycle models and that he had back tested them to the Athenian empire and before (even as far back as Mesopotamia), I'm keen to accept that such a cycle does exist. Armstrong is the largest hedge fund manager in history, formerly managing $3 trillion in Japanese sovereign funds before he got unintentionally entangled in the USA bankster's involved in the LTCM and Russian bonds scam via Republic bank which involved some of the funds he was managing. It is with this wealth that he compiled the massive $billion (in today's money) historical economics and natural phenomenon database that enable his supercomputer system to correlate and find these patterns and repeating cycles.

It is with this system that he has been accurately predicting everything since the 1980s without fail. In fact, I have predicted the past 4 major moves in the Bitcoin price employing his model, including my recent prediction in May that BTC would rise to $315 in June and July, then crash back down to below $150 for the Octoberish bottom.

This is it folks. Cash is king. Get out while you still can. This may be my last warning.


Your prediction will be wrong.

"Staat nenne ich's, wo alle Gifttrinker sind, Gute und Schlimme: Staat, wo alle sich selber verlieren, Gute und Schlimme:
Staat, wo der langsame Selbstmord aller – »das Leben« heisst."
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July 13, 2015, 07:39:50 AM
 #28742

The 7-day moving average of the blocksize is now in the red zone--six months ahead of schedule.



Indeed. And unfortunately, the sheer resilience of the bitcoin network in the face of a self-imposed handicap against smooth management of traffic peaks, has given oxygen to the 1MBers. They believe that bitcoin users having to put a higher fee than a spammer's known low-ball fee level is some kind of fee-market! (Matonis is clueless to claim there is a fee-market - though my estimation of him is now down to zero as he talks about monkeying with the 21M limit).

We don't have a real fee market, just one of general policy, it is pure luck that the spammer conducted his attack when the blocks were 40% full, and did not have enough money to hit out a range of higher fees that would have really disrupted the users.

So, Wladimir has pushed out the v0.11 release (full of magnificent stuff) but missing the one change more important than all the others put together: a fix like BIPs 100 & 101.

Unless v0.12 comes out soon with one of these fixes then serious delays driving thousands of users away from Bitcoin are inevitable by the end of this year. All the miners are producing 900+KB blocks now. This is an alarm going off. Even Gavin's earliest proposed trigger date of Jan 1st, 2016 looks iffy now.

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July 13, 2015, 11:06:42 AM
 #28743

I will delete this post. This is perhaps my last FYI to try to help the fools here.

The catalysts. Some years ago I independently happenstanced on (discovered) Martin Armstrong's 78.9 (79) year cycle of real estate (which I also correlated to technological unemployment cycles). So when I later discovered Armstrong's cycle models and that he had back tested them to the Athenian empire and before (even as far back as Mesopotamia), I'm keen to accept that such a cycle does exist. Armstrong is the largest hedge fund manager in history, formerly managing $3 trillion in Japanese sovereign funds before he got unintentionally entangled in the USA bankster's involved in the LTCM and Russian bonds scam via Republic bank which involved some of the funds he was managing. It is with this wealth that he compiled the massive $billion (in today's money) historical economics and natural phenomenon database that enable his supercomputer system to correlate and find these patterns and repeating cycles.

It is with this system that he has been accurately predicting everything since the 1980s without fail. In fact, I have predicted the past 4 major moves in the Bitcoin price employing his model, including my recent prediction in May that BTC would rise to $315 in June and July, then crash back down to below $150 for the Octoberish bottom.

This is it folks. Cash is king. Get out while you still can. This may be my last warning.


Your prediction will be wrong.

And I think his prediction will be correct. Anonymint has pin pointed the last 2 years or so of bitcoin movement better than anyone I know on this forum. With his help I sold before the dip to $150 and re-bought and sold again yesterday at $315. I think he should get much more credit. His macro economic predictions are probably also going to be correct. On the basis of Armstrongs models (who has been consistently correct for decades) I think it is very likely we have some very dark times ahead.
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July 13, 2015, 03:05:13 PM
 #28744


If we rephrase your statement to replace the alarmist "red zone" nonsense with something less panicky and more practical, we get:

A surge in transaction volume has led to a healthy fee market--six months ahead of schedule.

The 'red zone' coincides with an increase in hash rate and price.
Is there a metric for user frustration more useful than percentage of blocks being full?  It might be hard to find a less useful one.

The 'red zone' coincides with a Transaction Fee Market Developing Amid A Surge in Transaction Volume.

The 'red zone' coincides with Bitcoin, quietly and without much hype, starting to work as it was intended to.

User frustration?  Depends on the user in question.

Users attempting to DOS the network with crapfloods have been frustrated.

Users attempting to use the frustrated crapflooding efforts to justify pushing through larger blocks have also been frustrated.

As gmax quipped, "the attack is actually much less effective against the network itself than it is against the forums."

Users sending tx with appropriately competitive fees (IE normal people) have not been frustrated.

The difference between bad and well-developed digital cash will determine whether we have a dictatorship or a real democracy.  David Chaum 1996
Fungibility provides privacy as a side effect.  Adam Back 2014
"Monero" : { Private - Auditable - 100% Fungible - Flexible Blocksize - Wild & Free® - Intro - Wallets - Podcats - Roadmap - Dice - Blackjack - Github - Android }


Bitcoin is intentionally designed to be ungovernable and governance-free.  luke-jr 2016
Blocks must necessarily be full for the Bitcoin network to be able to pay for its own security.  davout 2015
Blocksize is an intentionally limited resource, like the 21e6 BTC limit.  Changing it degrades the surrounding economics, creating negative incentives.  Jeff Garzik 2013


"I believed @Dashpay instamine was a bug & not a feature but then read: https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=421615.msg13017231#msg13017231
I'm not against people making money, but can't support questionable origins."
https://twitter.com/Tone_LLT/status/717822927908024320


The raison d'être of bitcoin is trustlessness. - Eric Lombrozo 2015
It is an Engineering Requirement that Bitcoin be “Above the Law”  Paul Sztorc 2015
Resiliency, not efficiency, is the paramount goal of decentralized, non-state sanctioned currency -Jon Matonis 2015

Bitcoin is intentionally designed to be ungovernable and governance-free.  luke-jr 2016

Technology tends to move in the direction of making surveillance easier, and the ability of computers to track us doubles every eighteen months. - Phil Zimmerman 2013

The only way to make software secure, reliable, and fast is to make it small. Fight Features. - Andy Tanenbaum 2004

"Hard forks cannot be co
NewLiberty
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July 13, 2015, 03:57:30 PM
 #28745

As gmax quipped, "the attack is actually much less effective against the network itself than it is against the forums."

Users sending tx with appropriately competitive fees (IE normal people) have not been frustrated.

Hilarious, I'd missed this, have a link?

FREE MONEY1 Bitcoin for Silver and Gold NewLibertyDollar.com and now BITCOIN SPECIE (silver 1 ozt) shows value by QR
Bulk premiums as low as .0012 BTC "BETTER, MORE COLLECTIBLE, AND CHEAPER THAN SILVER EAGLES" 1Free of Government
Last of the V8s
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July 13, 2015, 04:17:02 PM
 #28746

As gmax quipped, "the attack is actually much less effective against the network itself than it is against the forums."

Users sending tx with appropriately competitive fees (IE normal people) have not been frustrated.

Hilarious, I'd missed this, have a link?
https://www.reddit.com/r/Bitcoin/comments/3ch4g4/bitcoin_being_held_hostage/csvj8r2

14hhm2Pxcxd3WxAv1heGu9dgtgSaPSsJCJ
Zangelbert Bingledack
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July 13, 2015, 08:30:42 PM
 #28747

I think the bull run has started and will go quite a lot beyond 300. Then I see two scenarios:

1) This is like 2012 and the price merely doubles/triples or so and then hangs fairly steady for quite a few more months, maybe gets temporarily beaten down during the so-called "2015.75" flight to safety (like gold did in 2008), finally getting into the 2013-style giant surge as we approach next year's halving.

2) This is like early 2013 and a giant rise is in progress right now, hopefully getting into something resembling that nice early-2013 steady(ish) three-week doubling time exponential growth soon, and running between 50x and 500x to the peak. I think Greece was merely the excuse, though it can add to the fire.
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July 13, 2015, 09:07:58 PM
 #28748

I support Satoshi's ideas.

I have never heard that Satoshi propose exponential growth of block. (doubling size every 2 years)
iCEBREAKER
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July 13, 2015, 10:10:32 PM
 #28749

I support Satoshi's ideas.

I have never heard that Satoshi propose exponential growth of block. (doubling size every 2 years)

Satoshi would never trade trustlessness and resiliency for efficiency and adoption.

Quote
Bitcoin users might get increasingly tyrannical about limiting the size of the chain so it's easy for lots of users and small devices.  - Satoshi Nakamoto 2010

The difference between bad and well-developed digital cash will determine whether we have a dictatorship or a real democracy.  David Chaum 1996
Fungibility provides privacy as a side effect.  Adam Back 2014
"Monero" : { Private - Auditable - 100% Fungible - Flexible Blocksize - Wild & Free® - Intro - Wallets - Podcats - Roadmap - Dice - Blackjack - Github - Android }


Bitcoin is intentionally designed to be ungovernable and governance-free.  luke-jr 2016
Blocks must necessarily be full for the Bitcoin network to be able to pay for its own security.  davout 2015
Blocksize is an intentionally limited resource, like the 21e6 BTC limit.  Changing it degrades the surrounding economics, creating negative incentives.  Jeff Garzik 2013


"I believed @Dashpay instamine was a bug & not a feature but then read: https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=421615.msg13017231#msg13017231
I'm not against people making money, but can't support questionable origins."
https://twitter.com/Tone_LLT/status/717822927908024320


The raison d'être of bitcoin is trustlessness. - Eric Lombrozo 2015
It is an Engineering Requirement that Bitcoin be “Above the Law”  Paul Sztorc 2015
Resiliency, not efficiency, is the paramount goal of decentralized, non-state sanctioned currency -Jon Matonis 2015

Bitcoin is intentionally designed to be ungovernable and governance-free.  luke-jr 2016

Technology tends to move in the direction of making surveillance easier, and the ability of computers to track us doubles every eighteen months. - Phil Zimmerman 2013

The only way to make software secure, reliable, and fast is to make it small. Fight Features. - Andy Tanenbaum 2004

"Hard forks cannot be co
Adrian-x
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July 13, 2015, 10:38:51 PM
 #28750

I support Satoshi's ideas.

I have never heard that Satoshi propose exponential growth of block. (doubling size every 2 years)

that's a compromise Gavin did for you folk, Satoshi didn't support a limit at all.

Thank me in Bits 12MwnzxtprG2mHm3rKdgi7NmJKCypsMMQw
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July 13, 2015, 10:39:39 PM
 #28751

I support Satoshi's ideas.

I have never heard that Satoshi propose exponential growth of block. (doubling size every 2 years)

Satoshi would never trade trustlessness and resiliency for efficiency and adoption.

Quote
Bitcoin users might get increasingly tyrannical about limiting the size of the chain so it's easy for lots of users and small devices.  - Satoshi Nakamoto 2010

i dont think you understand what that Satoshi Quote says.

Thank me in Bits 12MwnzxtprG2mHm3rKdgi7NmJKCypsMMQw
SmoothCurves
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July 13, 2015, 11:00:35 PM
 #28752

I will delete this post. This is perhaps my last FYI to try to help the fools here.

The catalysts. Some years ago I independently happenstanced on (discovered) Martin Armstrong's 78.9 (79) year cycle of real estate (which I also correlated to technological unemployment cycles). So when I later discovered Armstrong's cycle models and that he had back tested them to the Athenian empire and before (even as far back as Mesopotamia), I'm keen to accept that such a cycle does exist. Armstrong is the largest hedge fund manager in history, formerly managing $3 trillion in Japanese sovereign funds before he got unintentionally entangled in the USA bankster's involved in the LTCM and Russian bonds scam via Republic bank which involved some of the funds he was managing. It is with this wealth that he compiled the massive $billion (in today's money) historical economics and natural phenomenon database that enable his supercomputer system to correlate and find these patterns and repeating cycles.

It is with this system that he has been accurately predicting everything since the 1980s without fail. In fact, I have predicted the past 4 major moves in the Bitcoin price employing his model, including my recent prediction in May that BTC would rise to $315 in June and July, then crash back down to below $150 for the Octoberish bottom.

So the model for what you are concerned with has to do with we are in a cycle of shifting from Public (i.e. sovereign and municipal bonds) to Private (e.g. gold, Bitcoin, and until 2017 USA assets including stocks) assets. There are numerous others cycles converging at this time which is what will make this coming contagion so horrific. These include the Cycle of War (both intra- and international), Pandemic Cycle, and even the Little Ice Age cycle of sunspot minimums.

What is happening now is the peripheral (to the global reserve) markets are nearing the Minsky moment dominoes collapse coming October. This is evident with rising bond spreads in Europe and the increasing volatility in for example China. And you find similar examples in Venezuela, Argentina, etc..

The distinction from 2008 will be that instead of the USA flooding the world with dollars via QE-to-the-moon (forcing China at al to flood Yuan, Euro, etc to keep US$ from becoming too strong and destroying their exports), this peripheral capital will be stampeding back into the USA as the last standing safe haven and the US Fed will be raising rates because it will see a bubble from its perspective despite the contraction in the rest of the globe's economies. The US$ will become too strong, because the peripheral economies are all effectively short the dollar (via massive loans denominated in US$ because ZIRP forced dollar investors to look abroad for yield which is what caused these bubbles abroad which are now collapsing) and will become even more so as their dollar reserves run back to the USA.

Thus going into 2017, the US$ will become so strong that it will choke off the USA economy (and also the stampede of capital into the USA will have peaked), the last economy still standing by that time. As the USA falls into the abyss in 2018, the entire world will descend into a horrific economic collapse.

The USA would try to print more QE after it heads down into the abyss in 2018, but this will be too late for the rest of the nations which will have already imploded and the USA's domestic politics are going more radicalized third party (especially after Clinton wins the 2016 POTUS election), thus this will prevent another massive TARP bailout for banks, so the banksters will instead in cahoots with the government go for bail-ins which will be massively deflationary.

This is it folks. Cash is king. Get out while you still can. This may be my last warning.


Get out of what? Equities? Money in savings? Should we go all in on crypto and PM? Not trolling. Serious Qs
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July 14, 2015, 12:30:58 AM
 #28753

I will delete this post. This is perhaps my last FYI to try to help the fools here.


Get out of what? Equities? Money in savings? Should we go all in on crypto and PM? Not trolling. Serious Qs

Go dollar cash now. After Oct go dollar, PMs, crypto, and US stock market. On the blowoff peak in 2017, sell dollar, stocks, PMs, and go exclusively crypto. Dollar and stocks will peak in 2017 and into the abyss after. Gold will be heavy taxed (expropriated when you sell it by various means) and there will not be black markets (after 2017), because cash will be phased out (the banks will retire all cash and none will be printed). Anonymous crypto will be your only chance to escape expropriation after 2017. I had already explained why real estate will be destroyed as an investment.

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July 14, 2015, 12:42:48 AM
 #28754

I support Satoshi's ideas.

I have never heard that Satoshi propose exponential growth of block. (doubling size every 2 years)

that's a compromise Gavin did for you folk, Satoshi didn't support a limit at all.

The block size limit is a short term hack.  Someday we might get beyond such a limit, but it could be quite a while.  BIP100 looks promising though.

FREE MONEY1 Bitcoin for Silver and Gold NewLibertyDollar.com and now BITCOIN SPECIE (silver 1 ozt) shows value by QR
Bulk premiums as low as .0012 BTC "BETTER, MORE COLLECTIBLE, AND CHEAPER THAN SILVER EAGLES" 1Free of Government
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July 14, 2015, 02:16:09 AM
 #28755

I think Gold will carsh now i see in chart price want go to down same like bitcoin will goes down too
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July 14, 2015, 03:03:23 AM
 #28756

I support Satoshi's ideas.

I have never heard that Satoshi propose exponential growth of block. (doubling size every 2 years)

Satoshi would never trade trustlessness and resiliency for efficiency and adoption.

Quote
Bitcoin users might get increasingly tyrannical about limiting the size of the chain so it's easy for lots of users and small devices.  - Satoshi Nakamoto 2010

Did you read the posting right above mine?  Its completely clear that he supported the idea that as the network grows the full nodes would need to be dedicated servers and most users would use SPV.  This is what you guys are calling "centralization".   But its really not, because it remains permissionless.  That's the most important thing, because if you don't like the full node choices you could always get a few people together and rent your own.

Additionally, the node centralization fear is simply stupid because we've already lost the fight.  Miners have 99% of the power in the Bitcoin network and they are much more centralized than full nodes.  You're closing the barn door after the cows have already gotten out!

@odalv: AFAIK Satoshi didn't say anything about whether increases should be pre-baked in or not.  But regardless I think the blocksize increase crowd would compromise on a static but significant (8MB or greater) increase.


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July 14, 2015, 03:49:22 AM
 #28757

Speaking of zero hedge as an information source, which we don't really do at the moment, anyway, I found these two near perfect articles today:

This is about mining, but the author nearly completely understands that in general, the low interest rate and money expansion distorts both production, by focusing on the investments that has a long time interval between investment and finished consumer goods, and consumption, because the consumer due to low interest has exhausted his resources in advance, and is now in a consumption reduction mode:

http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2015-07-13/miners-buried-billions-debt-after-colossal-misjudgment-demand

And this, which reveals (to me, anyway) new details about the conditions in Argentina, and how the state's intervention in just about everything reduces productivity, running all kinds of value destructive enterprises, including the traditional export industries which are now unprofitable due to the managed peso dollar exchange rate. There is only one single important difference to conditions in greece, and that is that greece have relatively sound money. If anybody think that not joining the euro in 2001, but keeping the insane regulations, the outrageous spending on welfare, and the defense spendings, would change anything for the good, this article gives food for thought:

http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2015-07-13/argentina-model-greece

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July 14, 2015, 04:15:23 AM
 #28758

I support Satoshi's ideas.

I have never heard that Satoshi propose exponential growth of block. (doubling size every 2 years)

Satoshi would never trade trustlessness and resiliency for efficiency and adoption.

Quote
Bitcoin users might get increasingly tyrannical about limiting the size of the chain so it's easy for lots of users and small devices.  - Satoshi Nakamoto 2010

Did you read the posting right above mine?  Its completely clear that he supported the idea that as the network grows the full nodes would need to be dedicated servers and most users would use SPV.  This is what you guys are calling "centralization".   But its really not, because it remains permissionless.  That's the most important thing, because if you don't like the full node choices you could always get a few people together and rent your own.

Additionally, the node centralization fear is simply stupid because we've already lost the fight.  Miners have 99% of the power in the Bitcoin network and they are much more centralized than full nodes.  You're closing the barn door after the cows have already gotten out!

@odalv: AFAIK Satoshi didn't say anything about whether increases should be pre-baked in or not.  But regardless I think the blocksize increase crowd would compromise on a static but significant (8MB or greater) increase.

Most folks won't take an appeal to authority argument very seriously, but for those that might, it merits pointing out that it is not entirely clear that this means that node quantities should be expected to decline, or just that SPV users should increase at a much greater pace percentagewise.


FREE MONEY1 Bitcoin for Silver and Gold NewLibertyDollar.com and now BITCOIN SPECIE (silver 1 ozt) shows value by QR
Bulk premiums as low as .0012 BTC "BETTER, MORE COLLECTIBLE, AND CHEAPER THAN SILVER EAGLES" 1Free of Government
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July 14, 2015, 05:47:48 AM
 #28759

I support Satoshi's ideas.

I have never heard that Satoshi propose exponential growth of block. (doubling size every 2 years)

that's a compromise Gavin did for you folk, Satoshi didn't support a limit at all.

The block size limit is a short term hack.  Someday we might get beyond such a limit, but it could be quite a while.  BIP100 looks promising though.

"a short term hack" is how I see it, what concerns me is developers appear to be leveraging it to push through other hacks. (hacking the hack - postponing indefinably until such time as other hard fork changes could be bundled in with this one.)

BIP100 is good in that it removes the hard fork limit, my reservations though are that it does nothing to erode the centralized control system that has evolved. I prefer Bib 101 as it implies some central gate keepers need to eat humble pie, however nether are my first choice.  

At this stage I'd like to start seeing more decentralized development, the notion that Bitcoin is resilient in that if the protocol is modified the ideals will never be eroded because it is open source and can be forked to keep the original intent appears to only be valid so long as we share the same motives as the centralized development team.

The very idea of forking that was originally proposed to protect Bitcoin Values was vehemently opposed by the centralized developers who expressed disdain that they were not consulted and their process for seeking permission to propose change was not adhere too, even going so far as calling the idea of forking to remove the hard limit a threat to the very success of bitcoin.

I think there is a distortion of perception and lack of empathy all round. ultimately it is the people who put economic energy into the idea that make it viable, and while developers are important, they are not the gods who conduct this experiment, its the people who put in their economic energy.    


Thank me in Bits 12MwnzxtprG2mHm3rKdgi7NmJKCypsMMQw
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July 14, 2015, 05:58:11 AM
 #28760

I support Satoshi's ideas.

I have never heard that Satoshi propose exponential growth of block. (doubling size every 2 years)

that's a compromise Gavin did for you folk, Satoshi didn't support a limit at all.

The block size limit is a short term hack.  Someday we might get beyond such a limit, but it could be quite a while.  BIP100 looks promising though.

"a short term hack" is how I see it, what concerns me is developers appear to be leveraging it to push through other hacks. (hacking the hack - postponing indefinably until such time as other hard fork changes could be bundled in with this one.)

BIP100 is good in that it removes the hard fork limit, my reservations though are that it does nothing to erode the centralized control system that has evolved. I prefer Bib 101 as it implies some central gate keepers need to eat humble pie, however nether are my first choice.  

At this stage I'd like to start seeing more decentralized development, the notion that Bitcoin is resilient in that if the protocol is modified the ideals will never be eroded because it is open source and can be forked to keep the original intent appears to only be valid so long as we share the same motives as the centralized development team.

The very idea of forking that was originally proposed to protect Bitcoin Values was vehemently opposed by the centralized developers who expressed disdain that they were not consulted and their process for seeking permission to propose change was not adhere too, even going so far as calling the idea of forking to remove the hard limit a threat to the very success of bitcoin.

I think there is a distortion of perception and lack of empathy all round. ultimately it is the people who put economic energy into the idea that make it viable, and while developers are all important, they are not the gods who conduct this experiment, its the people who put in there economic energy.    

Your reasoning is interesting to me.  Mostly because your evaluation appears to contradict your conclusion.  And so, I suspect you have a some well thought out ideas and nuances that you've not yet communicated.

Both 100 and 101 provide a mechanism for more block size.  Choosing between the two may depend on your perspectives and assessment of different risk levels within the operating groups.

Do you see more centralized control among developers or miners?
- If development is more centralized, BIP100, (developers giving controls to miners).
- If mining is more centralized, BIP101, (developers retaining control over block size increases and schedules).

Both remain fairly centralized, though both are less so than they previously have been.  From your discourse, it would seem your evaluation would be the devs are more centralized and so would favor BIP100, (irrespective of who authored it).

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