Gold collapsing. Bitcoin UP.

[tvbcof]

I'm guessing what you suggest has historically happened?

Don't rightly know.  There have been a variety of crises under fiat regimes.  The nature of the crisis and other aspects of the state under observation limit the usefulness of comparisons.  Looking around a bit, I don't see this exact detail in most of the more trivial descriptions of one crisis or another.

Here's something of interest (no pun intended) that I just dug up concerning Argentina.  It seems to be a policy such as I anticipated would likely play out here in the US...at least in the fat middle of the potential failure scenarios.

------------
https://www.google.com/url?sa=t&rct=j&q=&esrc=s&source=web&cd=3&cad=rja&ved=0CEcQFjAC&url=http%3A%2F%2Fwww.areuea.org%2Fconferences%2Fpdf%2Fpapers%2Fareuea%2520website%2FSumit%2520Agarwal.pdf&ei=-mDqULWbILHyigLHhYD4Bw&usg=AFQjCNGDChwojdYlo1CWHjxM7LyihTtDlQ&bvm=bv.1355534169,d.cGE
-----------
...
As a result, the pesofication was applied asymmetrically at parity for loans to the private
sector, but at the official exchange rate –although already out of touch with the market
rate- for the other contracts, in particular for deposits. Furthermore, outstanding bonds of
public or private Argentinean entities issued under Argentine law were also pesofied.8

To alleviate the impact of the pesofication on the financial assets of creditors,
indexation was introduced. Initially, the “Coeficiente de Estabilización Financiera”
(CER) index used was based on the Consumer Price Index, and in the case of consumer
loans (including mortgages) included a 3.5% per annum (in real terms) cap on the interest
rate to be applied. This index severely impaired debtors because of the price surge
following the devaluation of the Peso. Subsequently, it was replaced in October 2002, for
...
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[DeathAndTaxes]

Oh good, my student loans might be inflated away

I am projecting that in all but the most devastating of collapse environments, Joe Sixpack will find that any documentable debts (to well connected parties) left over from the dollar days will be rolled into a similar debt valued whatever becomes the new legal tender, and normalized against some basket of tangibles.  In other words, unless you are a multinational with derivatives losses and that sort of thing, you probably should not expect a free ride complements of a monetary re-set.

As always, just my guess on how things would likely evolve.

Under what basis.  Imagining new contracts out of whole cloth? If so you got bigger problems then you think.  I hope you have a personal army because the next step is some banker troops putting two bullets in your skull and taking all your PM.  I mean we are talking about some future world scenario where magically no rule of law exists yet somehow bankers retain full control of their assets and the (para)military force to protect it.

Forget bitcoins and gold stock up on water purificaiton equipment, rural land, good seeds, and enough manpower, firearms, and ammo to ensure nobody has the ability to take it.

[cypherdoc]

the silverbox update:

Bitcoin:  +156%

Gold:  -2%

Diff: +158% Advantage Bitcoin and growing.

[cypherdoc]

since the above update is only from the beginning of this thread last March, let's do one from the beginning of Bitcoin's exchange rate on mtgox, as that would be another reasonable starting point:

from 7/18/10:

Bitcoin:  13.85/.05= +27700%

Gold:  1657/1210= +37%

Diff:  +27663% advantage Bitcoin.

[cypherdoc]

here's yet another start frame.  when i started exchanging silver and gold out for Bitcoin in 4/26/11:

Bitcoin:  13.8/1.53= +902%

Gold:  1654/1550= +6.7%

Diff:  +895.3 advantage Bitcoin.

ppl find it hard to change their stance on something they've been invested in for years.  i've been a PM bull for 6 years now and have started to convert some of my holdings to btc.  its always bothered me that i can't easily spend that bullion.  i've been impressed how much easier it is to move btc around.

[sunnankar]

when i started exchanging silver and gold out for Bitcoin in 4/26/11:

What took you so long?

[cypherdoc]

http://www.reddit.com/tb/16dcor

Absolutely amazing.  Way to go Trace and ill overlook the last comment 

[molecular]

http://www.reddit.com/tb/16dcor

Absolutely amazing.  Way to go Trace and ill overlook the last comment 

combined with James Turk (https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=109409.msg1445465#msg1445465) I'd say bitcoin is being talked about in high-level gold bug circles. An amazingly good thing, indeed!

[cypherdoc]

Gold down.  Bitcoin up.

[cypherdoc]

silverbox update (he died):

Gold:  -3%

Bitcoin:  +163%

Diff: +166% advantage Bitcoin, AND GROWING.

[cypherdoc]

The Daaash for Digital Caaash  

[molecular]

silverbox update (he died):

he died?

[cypherdoc]

The Daaash for Digital Caaash  

[tvbcof]

silverbox update (he died):

he died?

He struck me as a guy with a variety of interests and other things going on.  Sometimes people like that get interested in other projects and take a break from things like Bitcoin.  Sometimes for a while, and sometimes forever.  I think my record is like a month of not checking up on things.  The slow-motion train-wreck that is ASIC has me captivated at the present time.  To bad it's such a waste of time an energy, but if that's what one is looking for, on a sub-conscious level at least, what can one do?

Also, of course, those of us with significant PM investments are kind of in a relatively long duration funk which has been mostly not the case over the last decade.  Bitcoin is doing better over this period so it's hard to show up and be berated and humiliated by the likes of cypherdoc   I don't mind though

[cypherdoc]

Bitcoin is doing better over this period so it's hard to show up and be berated and humiliated by the likes of cypherdoc   I don't mind though

lol!  you know, i just realized the other day that i have some troll-like characteristics.    it must go back years.

it's like when your wife tells you over and over again for many decades that you're a poor listener and hard to live with.  one day you realize she was right all along...

[cypherdoc]

this mofo finally cracked $500 today for anyone interested:

[cypherdoc]

500.4

[tvbcof]

Bitcoin is doing better over this period so it's hard to show up and be berated and humiliated by the likes of cypherdoc   I don't mind though

lol!  you know, i just realized the other day that i have some troll-like characteristics.    it must go back years.

it's like when your wife tells you over and over again for many decades that you're a poor listener and hard to live with.  one day you realize she was right all along...

I see nothing wrong with 'troll-like characteristics'.  In order to be a good troll, a statement or concept has to have an element of truth.  THAT is what gets people's attention and gets them thinking.  And actually thinking about something is never a bad thing.

Now it is true that I have taken some of your posts to be on the needling side over the years.  But here again, if they have some element of truth, as most of them have, there is nothing wrong with that.  I only ask (and have asked) that one takes it as well as they can dish it out.

I (think I) actually delight in a situation where someone legitimately calls me out on a mis-statement or situation where I've gone so far out on a limb that I lack comfort.  Molecular got me just today on another post.  In most such cases I have to think or research overtime to recover, and that is where I get my most valuable insights.

[vokain]

Bitcoin is doing better over this period so it's hard to show up and be berated and humiliated by the likes of cypherdoc  I don't mind though

lol!  you know, i just realized the other day that i have some troll-like characteristics.    it must go back years.

it's like when your wife tells you over and over again for many decades that you're a poor listener and hard to live with.  one day you realize she was right all along...

I see nothing wrong with 'troll-like characteristics'.  In order to be a good troll, a statement or concept has to have an element of truth.  THAT is what gets people's attention and gets them thinking.  And actually thinking about something is never a bad thing.

Now it is true that I have taken some of your posts to be on the needling side over the years.  But here again, if they have some element of truth, as most of them have, there is nothing wrong with that.  I only ask (and have asked) that one takes it as well as they can dish it out.

I (think I) actually delight in a situation where someone legitimately calls me out on a mis-statement or situation where I've gone so far out on a limb that I lack comfort.  Molecular got me just today on another post.  In most such cases I have to think or research overtime to recover, and that is where I get my most valuable insights.

That's why I like this place, we have a nice, healthily constructive debating banter going on

[cypherdoc]

500.2