Gold collapsing. Bitcoin UP.

[FNG]

I'm not sure a hard financial crash would even be possible anymore, now that the world's central banks know that they can just fire up QE and confiscate savings in the short term.

Sure it is. Loss of faith can always cause a massive crash. In a hyper-inflation scenario stocks may rise nominally but they'll definitely crash in real terms. Time will tell but it looks as if the rest of the world is set to pull the trigger and move away from the current dollar centric system..the glut of dollars is sure to flow.

We're still the largest consumer economy.  I'm not sure the rest of the world is willing to give up their biggest customer.  They are certainly trying to lessen the impact of such a move for when it comes, but I don't think that time has come yet.  The BRICS need a bit more time to strengthen their consumerism.  Their middle classes are rapidly growing, but they are more sensible so it takes 2 middle class Chinese to consume as much as 1 middle class person from the US.  But they have the numbers, so it is only a matter of time.

largest consumer at what expense?  They have to support us by purchasing debt..and not dumping debt for that matter. Our inflation gets exported causing foreign consumers to lose purchasing power. Once they get dollars in hand they struggle to find places to put it because of protectionist policies. So they $'s get recycled in overvalued stocks and real estate.

The $ tax on the globe is sure to end sooner or later..let's see how long they can trick the world into thinking they need us to spend the money they loaned us for their products lol.

Time running short imo.

[1713565428]

1713565428

[cypherdoc]

Projections were for 6000 job cuts, not 18000. That's not good:

http://money.cnn.com/#!/articles/2014/07/17/technology/enterprise/microsoft-job-cuts.json?category=Latest News

[Erdogan]

I'm not sure a hard financial crash would even be possible anymore, now that the world's central banks know that they can just fire up QE and confiscate savings in the short term.

Sure it is. Loss of faith can always cause a massive crash. In a hyper-inflation scenario stocks may rise nominally but they'll definitely crash in real terms. Time will tell but it looks as if the rest of the world is set to pull the trigger and move away from the current dollar centric system..the glut of dollars is sure to flow.

We're still the largest consumer economy.  I'm not sure the rest of the world is willing to give up their biggest customer.  They are certainly trying to lessen the impact of such a move for when it comes, but I don't think that time has come yet.  The BRICS need a bit more time to strengthen their consumerism.  Their middle classes are rapidly growing, but they are more sensible so it takes 2 middle class Chinese to consume as much as 1 middle class person from the US.  But they have the numbers, so it is only a matter of time.

largest consumer at what expense?  They have to support us by purchasing debt..and not dumping debt for that matter. Our inflation gets exported causing foreign consumers to lose purchasing power. Once they get dollars in hand they struggle to find places to put it because of protectionist policies. So they $'s get recycled in overvalued stocks and real estate.

The $ tax on the globe is sure to end sooner or later..let's see how long they can trick the world into thinking they need us to spend the money they loaned us for their products lol.

Time running short imo.

The funny thing with money supply and inflation, is that there is a connection (supply vs holding preference), but the connection is not direct. In the Weimar republic, they launched Rentenmark, which became stable money, just because they were regarded as stable and sold as stable. Still, the supply of Rentenmark also exploded, just like the other fiat, all while the value held.

The current USD supply has already exploded (we could regard all fiat, at least from the strongest countries, as one currency, as they use reserves and largely the same politics to keep them in tandem). So the supply has exploded, and we have not seen great inflation in prices. One reason is the constant hammering that it is stable. Another is that the new money is far from dispersed among the users. Then there is the wrong assumptions that the value of the money depends on a large economy, innovation, military force and other things that are not relevant. So inflation should be possible, say USD buying force could go down to 20% compared to current, due to money already created. This may take the form of price inflation of 15% per year over some years.

We also have the possibility of a sudden credit clearance, which would reduce the money supply, but this will be painful and the credit loss will be compensated. It looks gloomy, and I think the only sure thing is that we will see violent changes in valuations of money, gold, houses, shares, funds, capital goods, consumer goods, really all kinds of assets.

[FNG]

I'm not sure a hard financial crash would even be possible anymore, now that the world's central banks know that they can just fire up QE and confiscate savings in the short term.

Sure it is. Loss of faith can always cause a massive crash. In a hyper-inflation scenario stocks may rise nominally but they'll definitely crash in real terms. Time will tell but it looks as if the rest of the world is set to pull the trigger and move away from the current dollar centric system..the glut of dollars is sure to flow.

We're still the largest consumer economy.  I'm not sure the rest of the world is willing to give up their biggest customer.  They are certainly trying to lessen the impact of such a move for when it comes, but I don't think that time has come yet.  The BRICS need a bit more time to strengthen their consumerism.  Their middle classes are rapidly growing, but they are more sensible so it takes 2 middle class Chinese to consume as much as 1 middle class person from the US.  But they have the numbers, so it is only a matter of time.

largest consumer at what expense?  They have to support us by purchasing debt..and not dumping debt for that matter. Our inflation gets exported causing foreign consumers to lose purchasing power. Once they get dollars in hand they struggle to find places to put it because of protectionist policies. So they $'s get recycled in overvalued stocks and real estate.

The $ tax on the globe is sure to end sooner or later..let's see how long they can trick the world into thinking they need us to spend the money they loaned us for their products lol.

Time running short imo.

The funny thing with money supply and inflation, is that there is a connection (supply vs holding preference), but the connection is not direct. In the Weimar republic, they launched Rentenmark, which became stable money, just because they were regarded as stable and sold as stable. Still, the supply of Rentenmark also exploded, just like the other fiat, all while the value held.

The current USD supply has already exploded (we could regard all fiat, at least from the strongest countries, as one currency, as they use reserves and largely the same politics to keep them in tandem). So the supply has exploded, and we have not seen great inflation in prices. One reason is the constant hammering that it is stable. Another is that the new money is far from dispersed among the users. Then there is the wrong assumptions that the value of the money depends on a large economy, innovation, military force and other things that are not relevant. So inflation should be possible, say USD buying force could go down to 20% compared to current, due to money already created. This may take the form of price inflation of 15% per year over some years.

We also have the possibility of a sudden credit clearance, which would reduce the money supply, but this will be painful and the credit loss will be compensated. It looks gloomy, and I think the only sure thing is that we will see violent changes in valuations of money, gold, houses, shares, funds, capital goods, consumer goods, really all kinds of assets.

Yup. But the difference with the dollar is that it's value is predominantly determined by overseas holders. It's been massively used as wealth storage / trade outside of U.S borders..not only for oil but as the means to conduct trade between two nations. New trade agreements are being put in place, the $IMF is receiving competition, and Russia is winning the gas pipeline game against the $ supporters.

When enough pieces are in place the $ no longer has the utility it once had / utility that was provided by the barrel of a gun.

The dollar is simply a credit for U.S goods and services so when it's overseas "utility" i.e forced use diminishes the $'s run home and hyperinflation runs rampant. No more money needs to be printed..it simply needs to chase U.S goods

[cypherdoc]

Bitlicenses are here:

http://www.businessinsider.com/nydfs-bitlicense-draft-2014-7

[Torque]

Bitlicenses are here:

http://www.businessinsider.com/nydfs-bitlicense-draft-2014-7

Eh, not quite.  Just a draft.  Still a 45 day comment period, before regs are finalized.

[Erdogan]

I'm not sure a hard financial crash would even be possible anymore, now that the world's central banks know that they can just fire up QE and confiscate savings in the short term.

Sure it is. Loss of faith can always cause a massive crash. In a hyper-inflation scenario stocks may rise nominally but they'll definitely crash in real terms. Time will tell but it looks as if the rest of the world is set to pull the trigger and move away from the current dollar centric system..the glut of dollars is sure to flow.

We're still the largest consumer economy.  I'm not sure the rest of the world is willing to give up their biggest customer.  They are certainly trying to lessen the impact of such a move for when it comes, but I don't think that time has come yet.  The BRICS need a bit more time to strengthen their consumerism.  Their middle classes are rapidly growing, but they are more sensible so it takes 2 middle class Chinese to consume as much as 1 middle class person from the US.  But they have the numbers, so it is only a matter of time.

largest consumer at what expense?  They have to support us by purchasing debt..and not dumping debt for that matter. Our inflation gets exported causing foreign consumers to lose purchasing power. Once they get dollars in hand they struggle to find places to put it because of protectionist policies. So they $'s get recycled in overvalued stocks and real estate.

The $ tax on the globe is sure to end sooner or later..let's see how long they can trick the world into thinking they need us to spend the money they loaned us for their products lol.

Time running short imo.

The funny thing with money supply and inflation, is that there is a connection (supply vs holding preference), but the connection is not direct. In the Weimar republic, they launched Rentenmark, which became stable money, just because they were regarded as stable and sold as stable. Still, the supply of Rentenmark also exploded, just like the other fiat, all while the value held.

The current USD supply has already exploded (we could regard all fiat, at least from the strongest countries, as one currency, as they use reserves and largely the same politics to keep them in tandem). So the supply has exploded, and we have not seen great inflation in prices. One reason is the constant hammering that it is stable. Another is that the new money is far from dispersed among the users. Then there is the wrong assumptions that the value of the money depends on a large economy, innovation, military force and other things that are not relevant. So inflation should be possible, say USD buying force could go down to 20% compared to current, due to money already created. This may take the form of price inflation of 15% per year over some years.

We also have the possibility of a sudden credit clearance, which would reduce the money supply, but this will be painful and the credit loss will be compensated. It looks gloomy, and I think the only sure thing is that we will see violent changes in valuations of money, gold, houses, shares, funds, capital goods, consumer goods, really all kinds of assets.

Yup. But the difference with the dollar is that it's value is predominantly determined by overseas holders. It's been massively used as wealth storage / trade outside of U.S borders..not only for oil but as the means to conduct trade between two nations. New trade agreements are being put in place, the $IMF is receiving competition, and Russia is winning the gas pipeline game against the $ supporters.

When enough pieces are in place the $ no longer has the utility it once had / utility that was provided by the barrel of a gun.

The dollar is simply a credit for U.S goods and services so when it's overseas "utility" i.e forced use diminishes the $'s run home and hyperinflation runs rampant. No more money needs to be printed..it simply needs to chase U.S goods

That's true.

A nice takeaway from the Weimar republic, is that the sum of all money, the mark, diminished as new money was printed (due to price inflation). The central bank president Rudolf Havenstein contemplated that the diminishing money supply (issued marks * value of each mark), was not large enough to support a large and effective production like germany's, and he thought that therefore they should inject more. He held talks on how good they were at printing and distributing, at some point printing on only one side to be more effective, and distributing to the edges of the reich with airplanes. The money supply diminished, but the real reason was less and less incentive to hold.

[cypherdoc]

the good:

1. The license is not required for merchants or consumers that utilize Virtual Currency solely for the purchase or sale of goods or services
2. Controlling, administering, or issuing a Virtual Currency. (Note: This does not refer to virtual currency miners.)


the bad:

Buying and selling Virtual Currency as a customer business (as distinct from personal use)-not good for local traders.

all of the compliance regs surely will drive up costs for MTB firms but they don't seem any different than what current fiat businesses are required to do.

[Erdogan]

the good:

1. The license is not required for merchants or consumers that utilize Virtual Currency solely for the purchase or sale of goods or services
2. Controlling, administering, or issuing a Virtual Currency. (Note: This does not refer to virtual currency miners.)


the bad:

Buying and selling Virtual Currency as a customer business (as distinct from personal use)-not good for local traders.

all of the compliance regs surely will drive up costs for MTB firms but they don't seem any different than what current fiat businesses are required to do.

What about the holders? Clearly, they don't hold solely for the purchase of sale of goods or services. That's a big hmmm...

[cypherdoc]

is the Russell leading?  it's a good bet:

[cypherdoc]

the good:

1. The license is not required for merchants or consumers that utilize Virtual Currency solely for the purchase or sale of goods or services
2. Controlling, administering, or issuing a Virtual Currency. (Note: This does not refer to virtual currency miners.)


the bad:

Buying and selling Virtual Currency as a customer business (as distinct from personal use)-not good for local traders.

all of the compliance regs surely will drive up costs for MTB firms but they don't seem any different than what current fiat businesses are required to do.

What about the holders? Clearly, they don't hold solely for the purchase of sale of goods or services. That's a big hmmm...

it's pretty clear that this legislation doesn't effect holders.  it's all about money transmitting and catching launderers.

[FNG]

Projections were for 6000 job cuts, not 18000. That's not good:

http://money.cnn.com/#!/articles/2014/07/17/technology/enterprise/microsoft-job-cuts.json?category=Latest News

after the rise I thought about buying puts...ran to the store real quick instead..  lost out on a lot 

[cypherdoc]

VIX coming off a long term low with a nice intraday reversal candle today:



High Alert.

[cypherdoc]

the epitome of strength:

[FNG]

Super Nintendo Rally - ON

[cypherdoc]

this could be the big event i've been waiting for.  Bull flag:

[cypherdoc]

https://twitter.com/cypherdoc2/status/489789826389262337

[cypherdoc]

stocks diving.

what's concerning is that false breakout on the Russell.

[cypherdoc]

Treasuries rallying.

diving for safety?  i'll never understand that...

[cypherdoc]

beautiful intraday reversal on the VIX: