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Author Topic: Gold collapsing. Bitcoin UP.  (Read 1805111 times)
cypherdoc
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August 11, 2014, 07:19:41 PM
 #10461

Not picking it up before USD 2.

It probably won't go that low. LTC spiraled last year until $1.50 while BTC was flat, then it followed its big brother upwards in November. The historical price connection between the two biggest coins in crypto is hard to deny--a rally in BTC usually means a rally in LTC.

Yup +1

I have my buy orders set at 0.009 LTC/BTC and I plan to at least triple my BTC invested from that point

even if it does survive by some miracle, LTC will always be relegated to a trading tool for BTC.  we still can't buy anything with LTC and scrypt mining is an unsolvable problem.  with that in mind, i don't think it has a chance.

Sure you can buy things with it, but the number of merchants isn't nearly as big. I do believe there is a giftcard service although I haven't tried it. After using it for awhile I do like the faster confirm times. As a trading tool to transfer value between exchanges it is useful, so for instance a LTC arbitrage bot might be more profitable deposits confirm much more quickly. Still, in the short/medium term it will rally with Bitcoin barring unforseen problems.

this is a good site.  look at the all-time chart of LTC:



the unforeseen problem is already here.  is this an all-time low?  looks to me like the BTC/LTC relationship has forever changed to inverse.
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August 11, 2014, 07:26:31 PM
 #10462

I keep saying that central banks get one final kick at the can: they can "sell out" by purchasing bitcoins with newly-created fiat until all confidence in fiat is lost.  Central banks would still have a big pile of coins to continue with monetary policy.  

I wonder how many coins they could get if they started doing this today. 

I'm guessing a good chunk - 1/3 of all in existence at least.  A lot of people would sell their coins before it was clear who was buying them.  And then it would take a bit to realize the CB's intention.  It would take some very high prices before everyone knew what was happening.  Over $100k, I'd guess.  We could hit $10k and nobody would even suspect it was any different than previous bubbles.

the risk for them doing this would be enormous.

reputational risk would include a market perception of fear of Bitcoin and lack of confidence in USD.  it would be a clear signal that they believe their future is doomed.  just "being in the game" would not facilitate monetary policy manipulation which is the raison d'etre for their existence in the first place.

if ppl found out they were doing this, everyone and their mother would pile in driving the price even higher to stratospheric levels.  i suppose they could find a proxy buyer to accumulate coins but if they accidentally pick a Snowden-type, they'd be screwed.

CB's aren't smart investors as far as i'm concerned.  look at Gordon Brown's faux pas.  during the noughts, CB's in general were selling gold for the most part.  the recent buying by Russia and China, i believe, will go down in history as yet another mistake.

no, i think the CB's, especially the Fed, are "all-in" with fiat.  that's not good; for them.

Cypher, I thought you believed that bitcoin could serve as a sort of reserve currency that enforced discipline.  If central banks hold gold on the asset side of their balance sheets, why can't they one day hold bitcoin?  If our world is truly going to transition from fiat to cryptocurrency, would this not be a natural step in the process?  

To me the relationship between central banks and bitcoin is a high-stakes game of chicken--viewed together as a cohesive system, it's in their best interest to ignore bitcoin; but viewed individually, it's in each CB's best interest to support bitcoin sooner than all the others if the end game is inevitable.  

In a bitcoin future, I also think they'll still be able to conduct monetary policy (albeit to a reduced extent).  They'll be able to lend from their huge bitcoin reserves when the economy slows, and increase the interest rate on those loans when the economy improves.  The beauty with bitcoin is that if they make poor decisions, their reserves will dwindle right alongside the notion that "wise men at the Fed" make better decisions for the economy than the free market.  


the other thing is that the Fed represents the ultimate in monetary corruption.  they are the banks Mothership.  Bitcoin is a poison dart directed at this heart of the problem.  for them to adopt Bitcoin as an asset and then claim they have any role in a future monetary system based off it is anachronistic.  The Chairman represents the ultimate form of centralization.  i've posted many times on here how the interest rate decisions really are made by him/her.  the board is irrelevant.  the banks like it this way so that they have to keep only 1 phone # in their rolodexes.  yes, they still use them.  how many direct phone calls, the content of which still remain a secret, went btwn the primary dealers and Bernanke during the crisis?  dozens, if not hundreds. 

they really need to go.
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August 11, 2014, 07:30:35 PM
 #10463

BTC already bouncing
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August 11, 2014, 07:47:39 PM
 #10464

they [central banks] really need to go.

Agreed.  

I'm just trying to guess the way in which that might happen.  I think the end game is the same in any case--bit by bit these institutions become irrelevant until they're powerless shells of their former glory.

Run Bitcoin Unlimited (www.bitcoinunlimited.info)
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August 11, 2014, 07:54:56 PM
 #10465


Cypher, I thought you believed that bitcoin could serve as a sort of reserve currency that enforced discipline.  If central banks hold gold on the asset side of their balance sheets, why can't they one day hold bitcoin?  

when gold was at it's peak as a world reserve currency, it free floated btwn individual actors/players on the global scene.  it wasn't housed in CB warehouses.  there was some centralization in gold warehouses/exchanges back then but it could be freely redeemed to cross international borders so as to bring a country's balance of payments/and interest rates into line.  if banks lowered interest rates too low, everyone supposedly would know about this, and then withdraw gold from the abusing country.
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August 11, 2014, 08:06:16 PM
 #10466

when gold was at it's peak as a world reserve currency, it free floated btwn individual actors/players on the global scene.  it wasn't housed in CB warehouses.  there was some centralization in gold warehouses/exchanges back then but it could be freely redeemed to cross international borders so as to bring a country's balance of payments/and interest rates into line. 

This.

What central banks and governments did was they made it illegal and/or difficult to use gold in transactions directly (for example FDR's 1933 exec order and ban on private possession on gold). They then backed paper money with gold since people then saw gold as money. Then after generations people no longer saw the underlying asset (gold) as money and instead just saw the currency, it's probably the biggest switcheroo in the modern era.

The advantage for bitcoin is it is both 1) every easy to use directly and 2) impossible to ban. This should hopefully prevent CBs from doing the same thing.

It is also why it is so important to get more adoption and transactions by merchants to encourage direct peer-to-peer usage of bitcoin as money. Otherwise if CBs end up storing all of them on behalf of people and issuing paper, bitcoin will go the same way as gold already did.
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August 11, 2014, 08:08:24 PM
 #10467

I won't declare Litecoin dead until it clearly has deviated from its long-term pattern:

http://www.cryptocoincharts.info/v2/pair/ltc/btc/btc-e/alltime

That would mean a BTC mania with no corresponding LTC/BTC mania.

It's going to die eventually, the only question is whether or not they get another pump out of it first.

I'd say it's very premature at this time to expect LTC to die.  Not saying price is gonna go up but if it's still maintaining it's overall trend lines then that alone tells me LTC has a long ways to go.  It would be nice to see some things happening along the lines of development.
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August 11, 2014, 08:27:41 PM
 #10468

I won't declare Litecoin dead until it clearly has deviated from its long-term pattern:

http://www.cryptocoincharts.info/v2/pair/ltc/btc/btc-e/alltime

That would mean a BTC mania with no corresponding LTC/BTC mania.

It's going to die eventually, the only question is whether or not they get another pump out of it first.

I'd say it's very premature at this time to expect LTC to die.  Not saying price is gonna go up but if it's still maintaining it's overall trend lines then that alone tells me LTC has a long ways to go.  It would be nice to see some things happening along the lines of development.

can u show us your trendlines?
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August 11, 2014, 08:28:18 PM
 #10469

I won't declare Litecoin dead until it clearly has deviated from its long-term pattern:

http://www.cryptocoincharts.info/v2/pair/ltc/btc/btc-e/alltime

That would mean a BTC mania with no corresponding LTC/BTC mania.

It's going to die eventually, the only question is whether or not they get another pump out of it first.

I'd say it's very premature at this time to expect LTC to die.  Not saying price is gonna go up but if it's still maintaining it's overall trend lines then that alone tells me LTC has a long ways to go.  It would be nice to see some things happening along the lines of development.

Since the march of Crypto has only barely started, I expect LTC to remain in the game for a while. I want to see it touch $250  Cool

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August 11, 2014, 08:33:59 PM
 #10470

I want to see it touch $250
Comparing the price of altcoins to fiat is broken and wrong.

The only thing that matters is if you're better off holding Bitcoin or the alt, and to determine that you compare the alt/BTC exchange rate.

Otherwise you'll end up in situations where the altcoin appreciates 10x vs the USD and you think you've done well, but at the same time BTC appreciated 100x so you've actually lost 90% of your purchasing power.
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August 11, 2014, 08:39:30 PM
 #10471

I want to see it touch $250
Comparing the price of altcoins to fiat is broken and wrong.

The only thing that matters is if you're better off holding Bitcoin or the alt, and to determine that you compare the alt/BTC exchange rate.

Otherwise you'll end up in situations where the altcoin appreciates 10x vs the USD and you think you've done well, but at the same time BTC appreciated 100x so you've actually lost 90% of your purchasing power.

i can't find a charting program that will allow me to draw a support line connecting the lows of April and Nov 2013. looks broken to me.  anyone?

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August 11, 2014, 08:59:34 PM
 #10472

why doesn't the mainstream media ever use such great headlines as this?:

http://www.reddit.com/r/Bitcoin/comments/2d8vec/another_point_we_need_to_focus_on_more_how_many/
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August 11, 2014, 09:15:08 PM
 #10473

watching youtube videos of cpu miners back in 2011 gave me the same sense of inevitability:

That even if someone wanted to bring down bitcoin, they’d have to outdo these guys and the dozens of other operations like this around the world. The decentralized nature of it all… that this is just one operation among many, run by different operators in different countries around the world. This really drove home that bitcoin can’t be killed by decree. Make it illegal in one country and people like this will keep hashing away in others.

http://www.thecoinsman.com/2014/08/bitcoin/inside-chinese-bitcoin-mine/
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August 11, 2014, 09:16:21 PM
 #10474

why doesn't the mainstream media ever use such great headlines as this?:

http://www.reddit.com/r/Bitcoin/comments/2d8vec/another_point_we_need_to_focus_on_more_how_many/
How many counterfeit Bitcoins are in circulation? oh yeah 0!

This leads to why offline transactions like using GoxCoins is dangerous and ultimately leads to the understand that Fractional Reserve "Money" is counterfeit.

Thank me in Bits 12MwnzxtprG2mHm3rKdgi7NmJKCypsMMQw
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August 11, 2014, 09:23:33 PM
 #10475

Break out the lube, boys  Kiss
cypherdoc
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August 11, 2014, 09:26:35 PM
 #10476

Break out the lube, boys  Kiss

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August 11, 2014, 09:31:39 PM
 #10477

There are different ways of looking at it. I think most will agree that the current price point is important.


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August 11, 2014, 10:38:37 PM
 #10478

watching youtube videos of cpu miners back in 2011 gave me the same sense of inevitability:

That even if someone wanted to bring down bitcoin, they’d have to outdo these guys and the dozens of other operations like this around the world. The decentralized nature of it all… that this is just one operation among many, run by different operators in different countries around the world. This really drove home that bitcoin can’t be killed by decree. Make it illegal in one country and people like this will keep hashing away in others.

http://www.thecoinsman.com/2014/08/bitcoin/inside-chinese-bitcoin-mine/

The first Bitcoin mining video I seen in 2011 was Mike Caldwell with his FOUR 5970's mining. I never seen CPU mining on youtube ever in 2011.

You got links?

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smoothie
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August 11, 2014, 10:39:53 PM
 #10479

why doesn't the mainstream media ever use such great headlines as this?:

http://www.reddit.com/r/Bitcoin/comments/2d8vec/another_point_we_need_to_focus_on_more_how_many/
How many counterfeit Bitcoins are in circulation? oh yeah 0!

This leads to why offline transactions like using GoxCoins is dangerous and ultimately leads to the understand that Fractional Reserve "Money" is counterfeit.

Not true. Anyone can fork the chain and create countefeit bitcoins. Of course they would have to convince the other party to use the same modified client.

But in the original BTC network...yes there is 0.

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August 12, 2014, 12:58:09 AM
 #10480

Hey look!

Dow goes up, Dow goes down,  gold goes up, gold goes down. Meanwhile;

Bitcoin goes UP!

Chart I'm looking at has BTC trending down for a month.  The bad news, though, is that the imbalance is heavy on the supply side.  At this point I'll be surprised to see a selling opportunity which works for me in 2014, and not at all surprised to seen some significant downside in the intrim.  Oh well.



LTC didnt reach target for me means its dragging it all down. Physcologically we are not ready for the next uptick, for me, until that level is tested, unless we go up and then come crash down later on which is not bullish long term... anyways just what worked for me in trading forex over the years... you build up an intuition of levels that must test before the real trend resumes. Something you cant really teach.

LTC going for it!
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