Gold collapsing. Bitcoin UP.

[notme]

Hi,  I'm back.

Again, the key ingredient is a time frame.  It's hard to call a top given a specific time frame.  It's easy to call a top and then claim you were correct at any moment when the price drops below a given price point.

When you extend the gold charts back a decade, there is absolutely nothing to suggest that a top has ever been reached.  There is also absolutely nothing to suggest that those who were claiming that $2000 and beyond will be broken were wrong.  Given a period of 10 years, a 19% decline in value over the course of one year is not some game changing event when you consider the 800% increase that occurred over those 10 years.

Let's say that tomorrow, in the course of one day, gold suddenly dropped to $500/oz.  I'm sure at this point you would be tooting your horn and making sure we all heard it.

Then, let's say that next year at some point, gold increased to $2500/oz.  Did you successfully call the top before the drop to $500?  Or were you just horribly horribly correct in the short term and horribly horribly wrong long-term?

Again, without a specific time-frame (many months to years is not specific) then it's really just a pissing match.  I'd be much more interested if you were to give finite predictions and a specific time frame (e.g. "gold will be $1400 around November 2012," or something like that).  Saying "gold is gonna go down at some point between many months and many years from now" is like saying it will rain this month.

Similarly, did I call the "bottom" when I bought at $1528?  Hell, it's been almost 2 weeks since then!  

If you want specifics, a subscription is only 2.5 BTC/month.  A new month is starting, hop on board .

[cypherdoc]

Sorry cypherdoc, this time you lose.

Since I first made the call here last year: "Gold: I smell a trap"

Silver= -44%
Gold= -19%
Miners= -57%

...

Um...and BTC?

And again, 'smelling a trap' at that time was about as impressive as 'smelling a turd' at a sewage treatment facility.

you underestimate how hard it is to call a top.  many others here understand that.  

the bullishness was at an extreme.  everyone was saying we were going to break $2000 and once we did it would go to $2400 $35,000 easy.

read that thread.  if everyone could see it, why was i getting all sorts of hate?

Hi,  I'm back.

Again, the key ingredient is a time frame.  It's hard to call a top given a specific time frame.  It's easy to call a top and then claim you were correct at any moment when the price drops below a given price point.

When you extend the gold charts back a decade, there is absolutely nothing to suggest that a top has ever been reached.  There is also absolutely nothing to suggest that those who were claiming that $2000 and beyond will be broken were wrong.  Given a period of 10 years, a 19% decline in value over the course of one year is not some game changing event when you consider the 800% increase that occurred over those 10 years.

Let's say that tomorrow, in the course of one day, gold suddenly dropped to $500/oz.  I'm sure at this point you would be tooting your horn and making sure we all heard it.

Then, let's say that next year at some point, gold increased to $2500/oz.  Did you successfully call the top before the drop to $500?  Or were you just horribly horribly correct in the short term and horribly horribly wrong long-term?

Again, without a specific time-frame (many months to years is not specific) then it's really just a pissing match.  I'd be much more interested if you were to give finite predictions and a specific time frame (e.g. "gold will be $1400 around November 2012," or something like that).  Saying "gold is gonna go down at some point between many months and many years from now" is like saying it will rain this month.

Similarly, did I call the "bottom" when I bought at $1528?  Hell, it's been almost 2 weeks since then!  

first of all, i've never jumped up and down and said "see, i was right!" in either of these threads.  yes, i might roll my eyes once in a while and make sarcastic comments from time to time but that's b/c it's me against all you trollers, several of whom have been outright rude and insulting for a long time, so what do you expect?  i don't get mad about it so why should you?  its the Speculation Forum after all.

i don't think you're looking at this correctly either as it doesn't have to be about a specific time frame IMO.

investing for me is about sensing a major primary change in direction of an asset.  usually these come at extremes such as parabolic blowoffs or spike downs.  you could also call this buying low and selling high.  the key thing is to identify this change in trend that will last for months on end, as has this one.  you jump on board and ride it for as long as possible.  you need to be first which is why i was about 9d early.  the bull could also be totally over too (i think so).  and there is no denying i got this one right within my time parameters.  i will change my outlook if and when i see a change in the cycles or my indicators.  i don't see them.

if you can get this turn that's a huge accomplishment in and of itself, especially after a 12 yr bull run.  but that's only half the battle.  you have to know how to ride the trend and not get bucked off.  there is a time to get off but that necessarily  requires some degree of trend following.

i guess my main point is that an enormous amount of money has been made riding this bull DOWN since last August given the size and duration of the move.  no bull here ever talks about all the ppl that they convinced to buy at $49 silver or $67 GDX (now $43) who have taken enormous losses and may have been financially ruined.  very few could possibly have held on for the whole ride down.  i think that's a shame.

sure, pm's could turn up.  i don't know the future for sure.  but they're gonna have to get all the way back up over the Feb highs to convince me this bull is extending.  for now, i think we're going to go below the Dec lows.

[MatthewLM]

Nobody has really been vindicated on the gold price yet. Still needs time to see which way it is heading.

[cypherdoc]

Nobody has really been vindicated on the gold price yet. Still needs time to see which way it is heading.

that's one way to look at it.

but why not make money on the way down too?

if it turns convincingly i'll be there too and happily ride it up.  i am not religious about this.

[MatthewLM]

Timing short term volatility is not easy. Much better to trade on fundamentals over the long run. Normal people just need easy safe investments, not short term risky bets.

[cypherdoc]

Timing short term volatility is not easy.

no one said it was easy.  i will be wrong from time to time.

Much better to trade on fundamentals over the long run.

wrong.  a good technical analysis method helps greatly.  i said before, for me 70% technicals, 30% fundamentals.

 Normal people just need easy safe investments, not short term risky bets.

you've been with me since last August from the first gold thread.  you've followed my comments closely and trolled me hard.  

there have been exactly 3 corners i picked since that time.  August, October, and April.   at this point, it is up to you to prove how i could be so lucky.

[cypherdoc]

this is an enormous imbalance in the order books and the bids have moved up.  and yes, i think it is significant and not just posturing.

[tvbcof]

this is an enormous imbalance in the order books and the bids have moved up.  and yes, i think it is significant and not just posturing.

It appears to me that genuine asks are filling in relatively quickly and in good volume over the last week or more.  I suspect that you are right and this is more than simple 'posturing.'

Chodpaba's take would be of interest here.  He seems to be pretty proficient in this sector of analysis.

[cypherdoc]

this is an enormous imbalance in the order books and the bids have moved up.  and yes, i think it is significant and not just posturing.

It appears to me that genuine asks are filling in relatively quickly and in good volume over the last week or more.  I suspect that you are right and this is more than simple 'posturing.'

Chodpaba's take would be of interest here.  He seems to be pretty proficient in this sector of analysis.

i think the China move over the weekend caused:

1. US speculators to wire money last Tuesday to gox after getting back in the office and
2. Chinese speculators are converting yuan to USD and out to gox to take advantage of the arbitrage.

[MatthewLM]

@cypherdoc: Your timing was wrong. I remember you were significantly early for the record top gold made. And if you like technical analysis so much why don't you do day trading which is better suited for technical analysis in my opinion?

I can't remember very much but from what I do remember me and miscreanity agreed that there would be a top and then a correction but disagreed that the bull market was over.

From what I think, I don't think the price will go down much more but if it does then it's luck for buyers. Market manipulators can always push it lower but that's always temporary. If they keep manipulating the market so much, eventually the illusion will fall and, as miscreanity knows more than I do I'm sure, physical gold and silver will prevail.

There is a company in the UK that claims they can give up-to a 20% discount on the London PM fix by connecting buyers directly to mines: http://www.gold-insight.com/index.php/en/ I'll talk to them to learn more about what they are offering...

[cypherdoc]

how many of you boys have seen this?:

[cypherdoc]

@cypherdoc: Your timing was wrong. I remember you were significantly early for the record top gold made.

9 days and one minor wave early is nothing in a 12 yr bull.

[bitcool]

Much better to trade on fundamentals over the long run.

wrong.  a good technical analysis method helps greatly.  i said before, for me 70% technicals, 30% fundamentals.

How do you define "good technical analysis"? Is there a scientific or objective criteria  ?  

If there's another guy think himself too has a "good technical analysis" and he happens to work for Goldman sucks or JP Morgue, then ... money speaks.

They have almost unlimited funding sources, individual traders don't; via their brokerage and money power, they have access to essentially all real-time, hard-to-come-by information, individual traders don't; they get telegraphic signals before economic trend or policy change being made public, individual traders don't.

Common sense tells us TPTB has a preference for lower PM prices. If you trade technical in this market, you are playing in the big guy's turf, it's not an even playground.

[MatthewLM]

@cypherdoc: Your timing was wrong. I remember you were significantly early for the record top gold made.

9 days and one minor wave early is nothing in a 12 yr bull.

I did say more time is needed for you to be vindicated.

[tvbcof]

Much better to trade on fundamentals over the long run.

wrong.  a good technical analysis method helps greatly.  i said before, for me 70% technicals, 30% fundamentals.

How do you define "good technical analysis"? Is there a scientific or objective criteria  ?  

If there's another guy think himself too has a "good technical analysis" and he happens to work for Goldman sucks or JP Morgue, then ... money speaks.

They have almost unlimited funding sources, individual traders don't; via their brokerage and money power, they have access to essentially all real-time, hard-to-come-by information, individual traders don't; they get telegraphic signals before economic trend or policy change being made public, individual traders don't.

Common sense tells us TPTB has a preference for lower PM prices. If you trade technical in this market, you are playing in the big guy's turf, it's not an even playground.

This is the biggest reason why I've no love lost for TA in mainstream markets.  Some people seem to be able to use it as an effective tool, but mostly on conjunction with solid fundamental analysis.

I would give more credence to TA in an out-of-band market like Bitcoin, but at the end of the day, I'm simply not a trader.  Having some clue about what the markets will do is only mildly of use to me in the relatively rare instances when I wish to buy or sell.  Even then, I find cost averaging to be more appropriate for me and I'm happy with the strategy.

[cypherdoc]

@cypherdoc: Your timing was wrong. I remember you were significantly early for the record top gold made.

9 days and one minor wave early is nothing in a 12 yr bull.

I did say more time is needed for you to be vindicated.

you're entitled to that but in the meantime you've missed an incredible opportunity to go short from the top and make enormous gains.

i know, i know, you're not interested in playing fiat games; you'll accumulate bullion forever. 

but what if you're wrong?

[MatthewLM]

I haven't got time for risky bets where timing is everything and the window of opportunity is small. I'd rather build my skills as a software developer and entrepreneur and eventually get rich that way.

There are some easy bets to make such as with disaster trading. I made some profit on the Japanese earthquake last year. Funnily people were telling me doing that is somehow immoral as if I caused the earthquake.

But trading short term volatility is too much of a headache and too much can go wrong. Accumulating on dips in bull markets sounds like  good, easy and safe strategy to me.

[cypherdoc]

Much better to trade on fundamentals over the long run.

wrong.  a good technical analysis method helps greatly.  i said before, for me 70% technicals, 30% fundamentals.

How do you define "good technical analysis"? Is there a scientific or objective criteria  ?  

If there's another guy think himself too has a "good technical analysis" and he happens to work for Goldman sucks or JP Morgue, then ... money speaks.

They have almost unlimited funding sources, individual traders don't; via their brokerage and money power, they have access to essentially all real-time, hard-to-come-by information, individual traders don't; they get telegraphic signals before economic trend or policy change being made public, individual traders don't.

Common sense tells us TPTB has a preference for lower PM prices. If you trade technical in this market, you are playing in the big guy's turf, it's not an even playground.

this is exactly why you need a good technical analysis method.  the "big boys" have access to information i don't have.  i can watch all the Jim Sinclair videos i want but do i "really" know that China is buying up gold?  and even if i do, how does it balance out with worldwide demand or supply?

you have to follow price otherwise you'll be swimming blind against the trend constantly.  this is how bull markets end when everyone just sees blue skies.

[cypherdoc]

I haven't got time for risky bets where timing is everything and the window of opportunity is small. I'd rather build my skills as a software developer and entrepreneur and eventually get rich that way.

There are some easy bets to make such as with disaster trading. I made some profit on the Japanese earthquake last year. Funnily people were telling me doing that is somehow immoral as if I caused the earthquake.

But trading short term volatility is too much of a headache and too much can go wrong. Accumulating on dips in bull markets sounds like  good, easy and safe strategy to me.

yeah, but this hasn't been just short term volatility.  this selloff has gone on for a year in silver and 9 months in gold and miners. 

and the worst thing about it is that it's been grinding.  it's continually held out hope and then cruelly snatched it away.

that's BRUTAL.

[MatthewLM]

The price is the most deceiving of all. And the sentiment for gold is low right now.