Gold collapsing. Bitcoin UP.

[cypherdoc]

Much better to trade on fundamentals over the long run.

wrong.  a good technical analysis method helps greatly.  i said before, for me 70% technicals, 30% fundamentals.

How do you define "good technical analysis"? Is there a scientific or objective criteria  ?  

If there's another guy think himself too has a "good technical analysis" and he happens to work for Goldman sucks or JP Morgue, then ... money speaks.

They have almost unlimited funding sources, individual traders don't; via their brokerage and money power, they have access to essentially all real-time, hard-to-come-by information, individual traders don't; they get telegraphic signals before economic trend or policy change being made public, individual traders don't.

Common sense tells us TPTB has a preference for lower PM prices. If you trade technical in this market, you are playing in the big guy's turf, it's not an even playground.

This is the biggest reason why I've no love lost for TA in mainstream markets.  Some people seem to be able to use it as an effective tool, but mostly on conjunction with solid fundamental analysis.

I would give more credence to TA in an out-of-band market like Bitcoin, but at the end of the day, I'm simply not a trader.  Having some clue about what the markets will do is only mildly of use to me in the relatively rare instances when I wish to buy or sell.  Even then, I find cost averaging to be more appropriate for me and I'm happy with the strategy.

i tell my subscribers that i'm the first to admit that TA on Bitcoin doesn't really work.  at least wave analysis.  it's too nascent.

the fundamentals are more important.

my TA depends on historical statistics which i have just begun to build with quite some early promise.

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[cypherdoc]

The price is the most deceiving of all. And the sentiment for gold is low right now.

price is what pays. 

[bitcool]

Much better to trade on fundamentals over the long run.

wrong.  a good technical analysis method helps greatly.  i said before, for me 70% technicals, 30% fundamentals.

How do you define "good technical analysis"? Is there a scientific or objective criteria  ?  

If there's another guy think himself too has a "good technical analysis" and he happens to work for Goldman sucks or JP Morgue, then ... money speaks.

They have almost unlimited funding sources, individual traders don't; via their brokerage and money power, they have access to essentially all real-time, hard-to-come-by information, individual traders don't; they get telegraphic signals before economic trend or policy change being made public, individual traders don't.

Common sense tells us TPTB has a preference for lower PM prices. If you trade technical in this market, you are playing in the big guy's turf, it's not an even playground.

this is exactly why you need a good technical analysis method.  the "big boys" have access to information i don't have.  i can watch all the Jim Sinclair videos i want but do i "really" know that China is buying up gold?  and even if i do, how does it balance out with worldwide demand or supply?

you have to follow price otherwise you'll be swimming blind against the trend constantly.  this is how bull markets end when everyone just sees blue skies.

Let me see if I read you correctly: even without those information, those resources, your "technical analysis" is still better, you can outsmart, outgun the "big boys". Somehow by just reading the price chart, you can neutralize all the advantages the "big boys" have thru their super computers, algos, crazy HFT bots, etc. 

I believe there's Santa and eastern bunny, but this ... is too much.

[cypherdoc]

Much better to trade on fundamentals over the long run.

wrong.  a good technical analysis method helps greatly.  i said before, for me 70% technicals, 30% fundamentals.

How do you define "good technical analysis"? Is there a scientific or objective criteria  ?  

If there's another guy think himself too has a "good technical analysis" and he happens to work for Goldman sucks or JP Morgue, then ... money speaks.

They have almost unlimited funding sources, individual traders don't; via their brokerage and money power, they have access to essentially all real-time, hard-to-come-by information, individual traders don't; they get telegraphic signals before economic trend or policy change being made public, individual traders don't.

Common sense tells us TPTB has a preference for lower PM prices. If you trade technical in this market, you are playing in the big guy's turf, it's not an even playground.

this is exactly why you need a good technical analysis method.  the "big boys" have access to information i don't have.  i can watch all the Jim Sinclair videos i want but do i "really" know that China is buying up gold?  and even if i do, how does it balance out with worldwide demand or supply?

you have to follow price otherwise you'll be swimming blind against the trend constantly.  this is how bull markets end when everyone just sees blue skies.

Let me see if I read you correctly: even without those information, those resources, your "technical analysis" is still better, you can outsmart, outgun the "big boys". Somehow by just reading the price chart, you can neutralize all the advantages the "big boys" have thru their super computers, algos, crazy HFT bots, etc. 

I believe there's Santa and eastern bunny, but this ... is too much.

tell me just what exactly are these advantages that they all seem to have?

i thought it was all about taking free money, leveraging it to the hilt, and betting on any and all asset classes that might have a story behind it understanding full well that if they fail, they will be bailed out?

[MatthewLM]

The price is the most deceiving of all. And the sentiment for gold is low right now.

price is what pays. 

The price is based upon the fake gold markets, so the price is fake. It is easy to manipulate providing one has enough fiat money and the potential amount of fiat money that the manipulators can use is infinite.

Do you admit that the sentiment for gold is at a low right now?

[cypherdoc]

The price is the most deceiving of all. And the sentiment for gold is low right now.

price is what pays. 

The price is based upon the fake gold markets, so the price is fake. It is easy to manipulate providing one has enough fiat money and the potential amount of fiat money that the manipulators can use is infinite.

do you have any idea how dangerous this assumption is?  what if its real?  what if all the conspiracy theories are just denial?

Do you admit that the sentiment for gold is at a low right now?

no, b/c i have all u guys trolling me everyday.  the denial around here runs deep.

[MatthewLM]

You based sentiment from a single topic on a forum of relatively intelligent people?

do you have any idea how dangerous this assumption is?  what if its real?  what if all the conspiracy theories are just denial?

It is a fact. Do you know that futures contracts do not need to be backed?

As for the ETFs, warehouse storage etc. there are reasons to believe scams are going on but less is certain than with the futures markets.

Your technical analysis relies on assumptions, is that not dangerous?

[cypherdoc]

You based sentiment from a single topic on a forum of relatively intelligent people?

i glance at sentiment polls from time to time.  not so much.  but yes, a bottom will form in gold/silver when this thread becomes a ghost town.

do you have any idea how dangerous this assumption is?  what if its real?  what if all the conspiracy theories are just denial?

It is a fact. Do you know that futures contracts do not need to be backed?

yes.  but how do u know they aren't just hedging plays?

As for the ETFs, warehouse storage etc. there are reasons to believe scams are going on but less is certain than with the futures markets.

Your technical analysis relies on assumptions, is that not dangerous?

not so much.  but my TA at least involves price considerations.

depending on how stubborn you are with your fundamental analysis, you could follow the price all the way down to $500 and still be in denial.

[MatthewLM]

not so much.  but my TA at least involves price considerations.

Your assumption is that the price is not phony.  How do you know?

[cypherdoc]

not so much.  but my TA at least involves price considerations.

Your assumption is that the price is not phony.  How do you know?

i don't know and i don't care.  as long as i can cash out with a profit that's all that matters.

[MatthewLM]

Not caring about how the market works, is a good idea for making profits is it?

[cypherdoc]

Not caring about how the market works, is a good idea for making profits is it?

i actually think i do understand how it works.  that's the 30% fundamentals.  i formulate my own opinions and ignore the noise.

[MatthewLM]

And that's where we disagree, so back to square one. 

[cypherdoc]

And that's where we disagree, so back to square one.  

no.  we're not at square one.  since we began this debate last August:

Silver= -44%
Gold= -19%
Miners= -57%

its actually worse than that.  have u looked at the gold/silver futures right now?

lets try this again:

Gold down. Bitcoin UP.

[SkRRJyTC]

And that's where we disagree, so back to square one.  

no.  we're not at square one.  since we began this debate last August:

Silver= -44%
Gold= -19%
Miners= -57%

its actually worse than that.  have u looked at the gold/silver futures right now?

lets try this again:

Gold down. Bitcoin UP.

You can see the future dude. For real... the chips are all falling exactly as you said they would...

[bitcool]

And that's where we disagree, so back to square one.  

no.  we're not at square one.  since we began this debate last August:

Silver= -44%
Gold= -19%
Miners= -57%

its actually worse than that.  have u looked at the gold/silver futures right now?

lets try this again:

Gold down. Bitcoin UP.

Dude, I am really interested in where you came up with those numbers?  Why do I get a set of totally different numbers?

Assuming your "debate" start date is the day you started the "trap" thread: August 9, 2011:

Gold close on 8/9/2011: 1756.1, Today gold close: 1554.9, change: -11.46%
Silver close on 8/9/2011: 38.33, Today silver close: 27.65, change: -27.86%
(source: http://www.kitco.com/scripts/hist_charts/daily_graphs.cgi)

Bitcoin close on 8/9/2011: 9.99, Today Bitcoin close: 5.18, change: -48.14%
http://bitcoincharts.com/charts/mtgoxUSD#rg30zigDailyzczsg2011-08-09zeg2011-08-09ztgSzm1g10zm2g25zv
http://bitcoincharts.com/charts/mtgoxUSD#rg30zigDailyzczsg2012-05-31zeg2012-05-31ztgSzm1g10zm2g25zv

Here is my take, with an 18 month time frame:  
Fiat down, Gold UP, Bitcoin UP & UP.

[cypherdoc]

And that's where we disagree, so back to square one.  

no.  we're not at square one.  since we began this debate last August:

Silver= -44%
Gold= -19%
Miners= -57%

its actually worse than that.  have u looked at the gold/silver futures right now?

lets try this again:

Gold down. Bitcoin UP.

Dude, I am really interested in where you came up with those numbers?  Why do I get a set of totally different numbers?

Assuming your "debate" start date is the day you started the "trap" thread: August 9, 2011:

Gold close on 8/9/2011: 1756.1, Today gold close: 1554.9, change: -11.46%
Silver close on 8/9/2011: 38.33, Today silver close: 27.65, change: -27.86%
(source: http://www.kitco.com/scripts/hist_charts/daily_graphs.cgi)

Bitcoin close on 8/9/2011: 9.99, Today Bitcoin close: 5.18, change: -48.14%
http://bitcoincharts.com/charts/mtgoxUSD#rg30zigDailyzczsg2011-08-09zeg2011-08-09ztgSzm1g10zm2g25zv
http://bitcoincharts.com/charts/mtgoxUSD#rg30zigDailyzczsg2012-05-31zeg2012-05-31ztgSzm1g10zm2g25zv

Here is my take, with an 18 month time frame:  
Fiat down, Gold UP, Bitcoin UP & UP.

my gaud Man, you just can't let it go.  we're talking about gold here.

its not like the thread title says "Gold:  I smell a trap that's gonna slam shut right NOW!"

and why is it that guys like you and silverbox latch on to the posting date of the thread as some sort of starting point?  i already admitted i was 9d early from the top.  these are general direction calls for the longterm and i don't need to specify an exact timeframe from point a to point b.

as an investor you just want to get as close to a major corner as possible and ride a big trend in the opposite direction.  that's what i've done and i'm sorry you're so pissed off about it.  i guess i should take that as a compliment.

[bitcool]

my gaud Man, you just can't let it go.  we're talking about gold here.

its not like the thread title says "Gold:  I smell a trap that's gonna slam shut right NOW!"

and why is it that guys like you and silverbox latch on to the posting date of the thread as some sort of starting point?  i already admitted i was 9d early from the top.  these are general direction calls for the longterm and i don't need to specify an exact timeframe from point a to point b.

as an investor you just want to get as close to a major corner as possible and ride a big trend in the opposite direction.  that's what i've done and i'm sorry you're so pissed off about it.  i guess i should take that as a compliment.

No, I don't feel I am pissed off at all, with engineering background, when I see numbers being presented as a proof, I want to see the source and attempt to do my own calculation.

I was just seeking answers to satisfy my curiosity, those numbers have to come from somewhere, correct?

Another curious questions: For the "hundreds of thousands" (dollars, I assume) bullion you switched to BTCs last Summer/Fall, how could that be a good trade, considering the BTC price drop since then?

Last question (I promise): back in 2005/2006, why did you decide to buy PM bullion in the first place?  Feel free to ignore me if you don't want to answer.

[cypherdoc]

my gaud Man, you just can't let it go.  we're talking about gold here.

its not like the thread title says "Gold:  I smell a trap that's gonna slam shut right NOW!"

and why is it that guys like you and silverbox latch on to the posting date of the thread as some sort of starting point?  i already admitted i was 9d early from the top.  these are general direction calls for the longterm and i don't need to specify an exact timeframe from point a to point b.

as an investor you just want to get as close to a major corner as possible and ride a big trend in the opposite direction.  that's what i've done and i'm sorry you're so pissed off about it.  i guess i should take that as a compliment.

No, I don't feel I am pissed off at all, with engineering background, when I see numbers being presented as a proof, I want to see the source and attempt to do my own calculation.

I was just seeking answers to satisfy my curiosity, those numbers have to come from somewhere, correct?

they came from 9d after i started the thread.  would you rather be warned when the plane hits the Twin Towers or a little ahead of time?

Another curious questions: For the "hundreds of thousands" (dollars, I assume) bullion you switched to BTCs last Summer/Fall, how could that be a good trade, considering the BTC price drop since then?

as i said before, i started buying BTC @ $1.6 the day before Easter last year.  so it wasn't like i sold my gold/silver first and dumped it right away into Bitcoin as a one for one exchange.  i didn't start selling silver until it went into its parabola in May.  the whole transition has been a process.

Last question (I promise): back in 2005/2006, why did you decide to buy PM bullion in the first place?  Feel free to ignore me if you don't want to answer.

for all the same reasons you have.  it was a real money for thousands of yrs with a fixed supply, apparently stored and valued by CB's.  its hard currency.  i began listening to Jim Puplava, James Turk back then and he and others like them were a great influence.  i had a GoldMoney acct and even an acct at Credit Suisse in Switzerland within which i held some gold. i also had 2 safes stuffed with pm's all those years.

i saw the housing bubble burst coming and started shorting New Century Financial in October 2007.  when that stock went from $37 to $23 i thought i'd made the trade of the century.  it promptly went to zero and i said shit.  i started piling on the shorts  for Countrywide, Downey Savings and Loan, Lehman, Merrill, Bear Stearns, MS, WFC, everything you can think of way before the shit hit the fan.  it was like shooting ducks in a barrel.  and i still covered too soon.  i made so much even before the October 2008 crash thats how early i was.  if i'd only held onto them until march 2009. 

all these problems i lived thru with day to day trading like i do now and it was an amazing experience.  it made complete sense to own gold/silver with such severe problems going on.  and it still may but Bitcoin really changed my mind.  Bitcoin makes so much sense and will work so much better if it gets adopted as a world reserve currency. even miscreanity admits it will work better. we'll just have to see.

gold and silver are faltering for a reason.  there is a 9 yr cycle i talk about to my subscribers and i've showed them the evidence for my bearishness.  it doesn't look good to me.  its especially dangerous b/c of its illiquidity.  i hope i'm wrong for your sake b/c there is probably nothing so many bullion holders can do at this point if it does crash.  you'll never be able to cash it in at your local coin dealers.

[cypherdoc]

the memories are starting to flood back in.

i can't take total credit for the New Century short.  i was a sub to the Gloom, Boom, Doom report of Marc Faber's back then and he recommended it in one of his letters.  as you know he's a real gold bug too.

i also frequented Calculated Risk back then and was a regular poster.  THAT was where i figured out housing was going to implode.  also the Implode O Meter with Aaron Krowne was another excellent site that helped clarify things.  also Mish was good.