Gold collapsing. Bitcoin UP.

[cypherdoc]

...
even some of my own subscribers don't believe me, lol!

I think that SilverBox said it best.  Something like: 'I like you cypherdoc...I'm just not going to jump off the bridge with you.'

i already knows he likes me.  now, if you said you liked me that would mean something.

The only reason I credited it to Silverbox was out of fairness.  Else I'd gladly have said it myself...and, like most things I say, there would be a fair amount of truth though this can be obscured under layers of other stuff.

do i consider that a truce?  if so, i gladly accept it.  we need to stop bashing each other.  its too distracting and we need to get down to work to figure out just what is likely to happen.

[1714004068]

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[tvbcof]

'a default leads to just a resetting of the existing system'

?  Why doesnt every country default on every debt immediately then?

The main reason seem to me to be most probably because the old cow still has some milk left in her.

Nations do seem to be positioning for their best advantage in a very different economic landscape, however, and at an ever increasing rate.  The US got serious decades ahead of most.

.. My question is what are the consequences of defaulting on debt?  Because the consequences of printing lots of money is easy to see...

It is a problem of managing liquidity.

If there were no debt there would be no money.

I happen to believe this at a fundemental level mostly because it works so well to explain a lot of otherwise mysterious things.

I believe that 'money printing' is a matter of creating debt and handing it off.  Governments can buy debt from eachother simultaneously and at will.  And governments dictate how accounting works for both themselves and the corp/gov body.  This gives them the ability to take the charade to a highly elevated level.

But it is bound to collapse at some point.  The big question in my mind is 'then what?'  I personally doubt that it would be possible to be using 'pre-collapse' instruments, so I don't hold much hope for sitting on a bunch of much more valuable USD complements of the classical theories of economics and how they explain the effects of a deflationary event.  So, saying "Gold has fallen to $400/oz" will be a laughable statement to some and a mystifying statement to others.

I could be wrong...I often am.

[miscreanity]

... we need to get down to work to figure out just what is likely to happen.

This.

And a little more of this, that, and another thing.

[tvbcof]

...

do i consider that a truce?  if so, i gladly accept it.  we need to stop bashing each other.  its too distracting and we need to get down to work to figure out just what is likely to happen.

Sure.  But I'm happy to have you calling bullshit thoughts of mine which you find absurd, and I don't have much ability not to do likewise (personally weakness.)  I'm totally down with taking things to a less spurious level though.  I strongly feel that it is of significant value to throw a lot of hypothesis out and hash through them.  I personally should be better at walking away from loggerheads though.

If you can swear-to-god-hope-to-die-stick-a-needle-in-your-eye that none of your public statements are self-serving in that they are designed to steer the herd toward positions which are in your and your subscribers interests and at the expense of their own, I'll accept it and do my best to moderate my more thorny barbs against your newsletter operation.

Actually, it might be rather pointless.  I feel that I am probably running out of interest in at least the Bitcointalk.org aspect of things for a time.  Not sure, but I am getting that sense, and I've very close to some life changes which (hopefully) will deflect my attention to other things.

Edit: fix syntax.

[notme]

Governments can buy debt from eachother simultaneously and at will.

Some countries have debt/gdp ratio limits.

[tvbcof]

...
But it is bound to collapse at some point.  The big question in my mind is 'then what?'  I personally doubt that it would be possible to be using 'pre-collapse' instruments, so I don't hold much hope for sitting on a bunch of much more valuable USD complements of the classical theories of economics and how they explain the effects of a deflationary event.  So, saying "Gold has fallen to $400/oz" will be a laughable statement to some and a mystifying statement to others.

I could be wrong...I often am.

The transition will be tricky, a bit like operating on a beating heart. Community currencies can go along way toward filing in the inevitable gaps, and have the potential to become well established players.

Agree.  I have sort of the same mindset about it that Dr. Strangelove asserted those who were about to enter the mineshafts would feel.

I also think that these combine with REAL p2p crypto-accounting methods and possibly in combination with some of the mesh networks thoughts could emerge as a real revolution for humanity.  It's a promise worth working towards IMHO.

How likely would such a thing be to come into fruition?  How edible would the fruit end up being?  These are very big questions in my mind...and a large part of the reason that my nest-egg has a distinctly golden hue to it.

[tvbcof]

Governments can buy debt from eachother simultaneously and at will.

Some countries have debt/gdp ratio limits.

Some countries throw inconvenient limits right out the window when the chips are down.

[tvbcof]

The transition will be tricky, a bit like operating on a beating heart. Community currencies can go along way toward filing in the inevitable gaps, and have the potential to become well established players.

Agree.  I have sort of the same mindset about it that Dr. Strangelove asserted those who were about to enter the mineshafts would feel.

...and a large part of the reason that my nest-egg has a distinctly golden hue to it.

If all else fails you can always use it to clobber someone over the head.

Unfortunately there is a possibility that that ability will end up being one of the more valuable tools to have in one's toolbox

[silverbox]

Agree.  I have sort of the same mindset about it that Dr. Strangelove asserted those who were about to enter the mineshafts would feel.

lol. 

George C Scott voice: "Mr. President, we must not allow a mineshaft gap!"

[cypherdoc]

where the hell are the Bitcoin Bears?

[S3052]

where the hell are the Bitcoin Bears?

going on summer hibernation :-)

[miscreanity]

where the hell are the Bitcoin Bears?

Getting throttled by the Bitcoin Billionaires

Meanwhile, Turk is right on with gold when he suggests that we're facing more than a liquidity or insolvency crisis.

Lastly, I haven't weighed in on the equities decline because it hasn't had the ring of true concern; it's been more like a toddler's temper tantrum than a genuine emergency situation. This has been highlighted nicely by Eric De Groot.

[cypherdoc]

where the hell are the Bitcoin Bears?

Getting throttled by the Bitcoin Billionaires

Meanwhile, Turk is right on with gold when he suggests that we're facing more than a liquidity or insolvency crisis.

Lastly, I haven't weighed in on the equities decline because it hasn't had the ring of true concern; it's been more like a toddler's temper tantrum than a genuine emergency situation. This has been highlighted nicely by Eric De Groot.

Eric Degroot will be wrong; again.

[conspirosphere.tk]

Chinese gold purchases up 782%
The Hoarding Continues: China Purchases A Record 100 Tons Of Gold In April From Hong Kong
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/hoarding-continues-china-purchases-record-100-tons-gold-april-hong-kong

[molecular]

'a default leads to just a resetting of the existing system'

?  Why doesnt every country default on every debt immediately then?

.. My question is what are the consequences of defaulting on debt?  Because the consequences of printing lots of money is easy to see...

It is a problem of managing liquidity.

If there were no debt there would be no money.

...there would be no fiat money.

[molecular]

'a default leads to just a resetting of the existing system'

?  Why doesnt every country default on every debt immediately then?

.. My question is what are the consequences of defaulting on debt?  Because the consequences of printing lots of money is easy to see...

It is a problem of managing liquidity.

If there were no debt there would be no money.

...there would be no fiat money.

yeah it is sad how most people think trading debt is the only way to have a system of exchange.

in the usa we used to trade gold coins, then paper that represented gold coins... now im not sure what backs it other than faith and the us army.

There would be no money... PMs would not provide enough liquidity to conduct everyday business.

And it would take an army to move, store, guard, and account for PMs for segments of the economy that relied upon them for trade.

Have you heard of this new highly liquid commodity money? It's called Bitcoin.

Also, thinking less radically: What keeps govts from issuing some sort of commodity-backed currencies that can be handled electronically. I personally don't like the solution as much as Bitcoin, but it's certainly possible to "put gold into a database".

People used to use salt or sheep as money (not very convenient and not exactly scarce or of a stable supply, yet it was used). Why? Because "there would be no money" just isn't an option. Any money is better than no money.

EDIT: oh, and it currently takes the worlds most advanced army to protect the value of the USD, so it's not really an argument to say "it takes an army to move, store, guard".

[molecular]

The point is, that it takes an army either way. Because other people want to take your stuff.

It will be hard to beat Bitcoin's public ledger solution for overall efficiency. Monetizing commodities directly becomes quickly complicated by errors, fraud, and legalized abuse of the systems to account for it.

+1.

A stash of bitcoin is also much easier to protect against an army than any of the other forms of money we talked about.

[SkRRJyTC]

actually my subs don't have to vouch for anything.  i wrote everything right here in this thread.  go back and check.

I remember.  No need to check.  Just wondering if you covered yet, as the dollar index is falling..  

Don't get caught with your pants down with QE3, euro gold bonds, and a falling dollar index  all on the table...

USDX isnt falling... not until its below $81 would I call it falling.

EDIT $82 is an important level too... just not as important IMO

We didnt even test $82...

EDIT: Metals are inching up with the dollar now... interesting

[cypherdoc]

http://www.calculatedriskblog.com/2012/06/bis-quarterly-review-global-banks-cut.html?m=1

money is debt and debt is money.

[MoneyIsDebt]

money is debt and debt is money.

Amen, brother