[XMR] Monero Speculation

[smoothie]

I thought this would be relevant as Monero is much more private/fungible:




https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ak1iojpiHpM&feature=youtu.be&t=33m6s

Andreas A. seems to believe that bitcoin can work on its "fungibility".  

Andreas: "We need to address the issue of fungibility..."

      ...     "the metric of economic inclusion is very much affected by the fungibility and black lists ..."

Also...

Dr. Adam Back says in regards to Bitcoin (in Feb 2014) - https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=3dAdI3Gzodo&feature=youtu.be&t=28m31s

"Weak fungibility: Feature & bug"


"Fungibility provides privacy as a side effect"


"Bitcoin privacy is fragile (Shamir & Dorit network analysis)"


By Dr. Adam Back's definition of fungibility PLUS(+) his statement of "Bitcoin privacy is fragile" you therefore can deduce Dr. Adam Back also believes that Bitcoin's fungibility is also fragile.




If monero and bitcoin started out with the same user base initially (of course this is not true) do we think bit coin or Monero would be more well adopted?

I don't know the answer to this. But I tend to think that if a crypto-coin offers the option of privacy and the other does not in the same magnitude of privacy then it therefore means Bitcoin (the coin that does not have privacy enabled by default) is inferior to Monero.

Just my two cents for today.  

As it happens, now there is a thread on reddit, claiming the opposite: "Bitcoin has no fungibility problem"
https://en.reddit.com/r/Bitcoin/comments/3ptbx1/bitcoin_has_no_fungibility_problem/

made my own  : https://en.reddit.com/r/Bitcoin/comments/3puvia/lets_talk_about_bitcoins_fungibility_privacy/

[smoothie]

You can't have privacy in a currency without fungibility.

This was an interesting find:

LINK: http://diyhpl.us/wiki/transcripts/scalingbitcoin/privacy-and-fungibility/

"Privacy is the weakest link in censorship resistance. Fungibility is an absolute necessity for any medium of exchange. The properties of money include fungibility. Without privacy you may not be able to have fungibility."

Monero gives us privacy on the blockchain (still working on i2p integration from what I've heard).

[owm123]

You can't have privacy in a currency without fungibility.

This was an interesting find:

LINK: http://diyhpl.us/wiki/transcripts/scalingbitcoin/privacy-and-fungibility/

"Privacy is the weakest link in censorship resistance. Fungibility is an absolute necessity for any medium of exchange. The properties of money include fungibility. Without privacy you may not be able to have fungibility."

Monero gives us privacy on the blockchain (still working on i2p integration from what I've heard).

The problem is that regular people don't even know what Fungiblilty means. And most not even care,  unless the effects of its lack in bitcoin will start causing problems.

[ArticMine]

Bitcoin still has to deal with the related issues of the 1 MB blocksize limit and the development of a fee market for when the emission runs out. Both of these issues will over time prove to be fatal. Monero has both of them fixed. Bitcoin can buy some time by increasing the blocksize limit in a hard fork, but I do not see a solution to the question of securing the network once the emission runs out.

The privacy / fungibility of Monero will in the end turn out to be by comparison just a bonus.

As Trace Mayer eluded to, transaction privacy is much more of an important topic with bitcoin than the block size as of right now.

Emission of bitcoin won't run out for what like 4 decades? I dont know the exact number of years.

Bitcoin transactions aren't taking up the full 1MB yet but at the same time there has been countless hours of discussions, trolling, conferences, travel, phone calls etc that are all billable hours yet it isn't that big of an issue to the people hiring bitcoin to do what it is they want bitcoin to do.

Yes, but this ignores the impact of cross chain mixing. If Monero were to grow to a size that could threaten Bitcoin, normal trading between Bitcoin and Monero would make most Bitcoin blockchain analysis very difficult if not impossible. Even today a simple way to mix Bitcoin is to sell Bitcoin for Monero, run the XMR through the Monero network with say a mixin of 5 and then trade the Monero back for Bitcoin. If the amounts are below typical AML/KNC levels this can be done both legally and anonymously. By the way the ratio of the emission to the number of coins of Bitcoin will be below that of Monero in about 13 years. (1.5625 XBT per 10 min vs 3 XMR per 10 min). This is a lot sooner that many realize. As for the 1 MB blocksize limit if there is any significant growth in Bitcoin the impact will be felt when transactions simply do not confirm.

My take is that are "good enough" privacy / fungibility fixes for Bitcoin, including ironically Monero itself. The issues I have raised are fundamentally fatal and cannot be easily fixed.

Edit: Take care of the longterm and the short term will take care of itself. The reverse is not the case.

[smoothie]

You can't have privacy in a currency without fungibility.

This was an interesting find:

LINK: http://diyhpl.us/wiki/transcripts/scalingbitcoin/privacy-and-fungibility/

"Privacy is the weakest link in censorship resistance. Fungibility is an absolute necessity for any medium of exchange. The properties of money include fungibility. Without privacy you may not be able to have fungibility."

Monero gives us privacy on the blockchain (still working on i2p integration from what I've heard).

The problem is that regular people don't even know what Fungiblilty means. And most not even care,  unless the effects of its lack in bitcoin will start causing problems.

It's a word. But they will know what it means when their currency is not being accepted as any other of the same "type".

Then they know what that word means (not specifically that word but the impression it will give a person when it happens).

[americanpegasus]

I just saw a quote by a user that Monero has an "opaque blockchain" which I don't think is correct.  
  
Monero has a private blockchain, in that the sender and receiver are always protected from knowing each other, but (correct me if I'm wrong here) the amount of money moving across the blockchain is still visible in some respects.  
  
If someone sent 300,000 Monero across the blockchain, then observers would be able to see that a large amount of money moved today but not be able to pin it down to a particular user or transaction time (with proper mixin settings)

[chennan]

I just saw a quote by a user that Monero has an "opaque blockchain" which I don't think is correct. 
 
Monero has a private blockchain, in the the sender and receiver are always protected from knowing each other, but (correct me if I'm wrong here) the amount of money moving across the blockchain is still visible in some respects. 
 
If someone sent 300,000 Monero across the blockchain, then observers would be able to see that a large amount of money moved today but not be able to pin it down to a particular user or transaction time (with proper mixin settings)

I thought that with the new CT ring developments coming out, people wouldn't be able to tell what amount of monero is being transacted unless you have the right key which shows you the amount for that particular transaction?  Wouldn't this be a non issue with the upcoming developments?

[smoothie]

Bitcoin still has to deal with the related issues of the 1 MB blocksize limit and the development of a fee market for when the emission runs out. Both of these issues will over time prove to be fatal. Monero has both of them fixed. Bitcoin can buy some time by increasing the blocksize limit in a hard fork, but I do not see a solution to the question of securing the network once the emission runs out.

The privacy / fungibility of Monero will in the end turn out to be by comparison just a bonus.

As Trace Mayer eluded to, transaction privacy is much more of an important topic with bitcoin than the block size as of right now.

Emission of bitcoin won't run out for what like 4 decades? I dont know the exact number of years.

Bitcoin transactions aren't taking up the full 1MB yet but at the same time there has been countless hours of discussions, trolling, conferences, travel, phone calls etc that are all billable hours yet it isn't that big of an issue to the people hiring bitcoin to do what it is they want bitcoin to do.

Yes, but this ignores the impact of cross chain mixing. If Monero were to grow to a size that could threaten Bitcoin, normal trading between Bitcoin and Monero would make most Bitcoin blockchain analysis very difficult if not impossible. Even today a simple way to mix Bitcoin is to sell Bitcoin for Monero, run the XMR through the Monero network with say a mixin of 5 and then trade the Monero back for Bitcoin. If the amounts are below typical AML/KNC levels this can be done both legally and anonymously. By the way the ratio of the emission to the number of coins of Bitcoin will be below that of Monero in about 13 years. (1.5625 XBT per 10 min vs 3 XMR per 10 min). This is a lot sooner that many realize. As for the 1 MB blocksize limit if there is any significant growth in Bitcoin the impact will be felt when transactions simply do not confirm.

My take is that are "good enough" privacy / fungibility fixes for Bitcoin, including ironically Monero itself. The issues I have raised are fundamentally fatal and cannot be easily fixed.

Edit: Take care of the longterm and the short term will take care of itself. The reverse is not the case.

We need to see how things pan out. There is so much going on in this world and the implications of cryptocurrency and how it fits into our world is going to be mind boggling.

Your topics are definitely ones to consider but I do not think one is more important than another. I think they are all issues and over time we dont know what the future will throw at us to know which of these issues truly is going to be of utmost attention to consider.

With monero it seems all bases are covered. SO that is a good thing.

 So much info to consider.  

[smoothie]

I just saw a quote by a user that Monero has an "opaque blockchain" which I don't think is correct. 
 
Monero has a private blockchain, in the the sender and receiver are always protected from knowing each other, but (correct me if I'm wrong here) the amount of money moving across the blockchain is still visible in some respects. 
 
If someone sent 300,000 Monero across the blockchain, then observers would be able to see that a large amount of money moved today but not be able to pin it down to a particular user or transaction time (with proper mixin settings)

I thought that with the new CT ring developments coming out, people wouldn't be able to tell what amount of monero is being transacted unless you have the right key which shows you the amount for that particular transaction?  Wouldn't this be a non issue with the upcoming developments?

In theory yes. It has not been implemented yet into monero so testing needs to happen over months to come.

For now AP is right you can see how much is moved and when. But not who sent to who specifically.

[8XMR]

I just saw a quote by a user that Monero has an "opaque blockchain" which I don't think is correct. 
 
Monero has a private blockchain, in the the sender and receiver are always protected from knowing each other, but (correct me if I'm wrong here) the amount of money moving across the blockchain is still visible in some respects. 
 
If someone sent 300,000 Monero across the blockchain, then observers would be able to see that a large amount of money moved today but not be able to pin it down to a particular user or transaction time (with proper mixin settings)

I thought that with the new CT ring developments coming out, people wouldn't be able to tell what amount of monero is being transacted unless you have the right key which shows you the amount for that particular transaction?  Wouldn't this be a non issue with the upcoming developments?

In theory yes. It has not been implemented yet into monero so testing needs to happen over months to come.

For now AP is right you can see how much is moved and when. But not who sent to who specifically.

It is important that Monero implement CT before anyone else.

[LucyLovesCrypto]

I just saw a quote by a user that Monero has an "opaque blockchain" which I don't think is correct. 
 
Monero has a private blockchain, in the the sender and receiver are always protected from knowing each other, but (correct me if I'm wrong here) the amount of money moving across the blockchain is still visible in some respects. 
 
If someone sent 300,000 Monero across the blockchain, then observers would be able to see that a large amount of money moved today but not be able to pin it down to a particular user or transaction time (with proper mixin settings)

I thought that with the new CT ring developments coming out, people wouldn't be able to tell what amount of monero is being transacted unless you have the right key which shows you the amount for that particular transaction?  Wouldn't this be a non issue with the upcoming developments?

In theory yes. It has not been implemented yet into monero so testing needs to happen over months to come.

For now AP is right you can see how much is moved and when. But not who sent to who specifically.

It is important that Monero implement CT before anyone else.

What other coin is working on adding CT?

[smoothie]

I just saw a quote by a user that Monero has an "opaque blockchain" which I don't think is correct. 
 
Monero has a private blockchain, in the the sender and receiver are always protected from knowing each other, but (correct me if I'm wrong here) the amount of money moving across the blockchain is still visible in some respects. 
 
If someone sent 300,000 Monero across the blockchain, then observers would be able to see that a large amount of money moved today but not be able to pin it down to a particular user or transaction time (with proper mixin settings)

I thought that with the new CT ring developments coming out, people wouldn't be able to tell what amount of monero is being transacted unless you have the right key which shows you the amount for that particular transaction?  Wouldn't this be a non issue with the upcoming developments?

In theory yes. It has not been implemented yet into monero so testing needs to happen over months to come.

For now AP is right you can see how much is moved and when. But not who sent to who specifically.

It is important that Monero implement CT before anyone else.

What other coin is working on adding CT?

None I am aware of. But i wouldnt be surprised if one is trying to implement it quietly

[digicoin]

Compact CT is the way to go. I think that Compact CT will significantly improve Monero's image and push up investor adoption. Zerocash (if implemented) has no advantage after that

[othe]

I just saw a quote by a user that Monero has an "opaque blockchain" which I don't think is correct.  
  
Monero has a private blockchain, in the the sender and receiver are always protected from knowing each other, but (correct me if I'm wrong here) the amount of money moving across the blockchain is still visible in some respects.  
  
If someone sent 300,000 Monero across the blockchain, then observers would be able to see that a large amount of money moved today but not be able to pin it down to a particular user or transaction time (with proper mixin settings)

I thought that with the new CT ring developments coming out, people wouldn't be able to tell what amount of monero is being transacted unless you have the right key which shows you the amount for that particular transaction?  Wouldn't this be a non issue with the upcoming developments?

In theory yes. It has not been implemented yet into monero so testing needs to happen over months to come.

For now AP is right you can see how much is moved and when. But not who sent to who specifically.

It is important that Monero implement CT before anyone else.

Let´s stay with calling it RingCT for Monero, as its fundamentally different from CT, has a reason we call it MG Sig.

Compact CT is the way to go. I think that Compact CT will significantly improve Monero's image and push up investor adoption. Zerocash (if implemented) has no advantage after that

We´ll see, the current CCT isn´t.

[Quicken]

The problem is that regular people don't even know what Fungiblilty means. And most not even care,  unless the effects of its lack in bitcoin will start causing problems.

It's worth remembering that the euro has questionable fungibility:

https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=1097116.0

The world will wake up to fungibility if Greece is ever allowed to actually default.
Q

[macsga]

The problem is that regular people don't even know what Fungiblilty means. And most not even care,  unless the effects of its lack in bitcoin will start causing problems.

It's worth remembering that the euro has questionable fungibility:

https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=1097116.0

The world will wake up to fungibility if Greece is ever allowed to actually default.
Q

Greece won't be allowed to default; it would've happened a dozen of times within the last 6 years of recession. EU is based on its "austerity measures" to dictate its economic totalitarianism to other "default candidates" within the EU, via the Greek paradigm "see what happened in Greece?". Oversimplifying a disastrous economic attitude to contain the 0.3% of the EU GDP via erratic orders simply won't make it any better.

IMHO Dijsselbloem et al should quit politics that ruin the whole EU continent and contain themselves to what they do better; getting their fat paychecks from the Banksters & IMF for kissing their asses.

[owm123]

Do you think whether, as time progresses, these blockchain alliance and EU tax-free bitcoin news will have beneficial (or negative) effect on monero?

[americanpegasus]

Do you think whether, as time progresses, these blockchain alliance and EU tax-free bitcoin news will have beneficial (or negative) effect on monero?

I think it would be extremely difficult or impossible to rule that Bitcoin is a currency and Monero is not.  From my perspective, that ruling just made Monero officially a currency as well.  (Even as it still remains a commodity in the US)
 
This has a lot of far reaching implications, some of which I can't even grasp right now.  I think it definitely is yet another crack in the dam that holds back a flood of the worlds traditional value from flooding into crypto, and I have no doubts that *if* we see a big cryptorush next spring that many will feel they've missed the boat with Bitcoin and start looking for the "next opportunity". 
 
What happens next may well blow all of us away.

[smooth]

I just saw a quote by a user that Monero has an "opaque blockchain" which I don't think is correct. 
 
Monero has a private blockchain, in the the sender and receiver are always protected from knowing each other, but (correct me if I'm wrong here) the amount of money moving across the blockchain is still visible in some respects. 
 
If someone sent 300,000 Monero across the blockchain, then observers would be able to see that a large amount of money moved today but not be able to pin it down to a particular user or transaction time (with proper mixin settings)

I thought that with the new CT ring developments coming out, people wouldn't be able to tell what amount of monero is being transacted unless you have the right key which shows you the amount for that particular transaction?  Wouldn't this be a non issue with the upcoming developments?

In theory yes. It has not been implemented yet into monero so testing needs to happen over months to come.

For now AP is right you can see how much is moved and when. But not who sent to who specifically.

Also you can't really tell it moved between two people. Much of it could be change going back to the sender and it could be someone moving from one wallet to another.

Above comments about CT are correct. However, even with CT, using math an observer can still verify that the coins spent are equal to the coins received. You just can't tell the number.

[smooth]

Greece won't be allowed to default; it would've happened a dozen of times within the last 6 years of recession.

Not on purpose no. Sometime accidents happen though. In 07 it was expected that a buyer could be found for Lehman, as is usually the case for large failing banks, but it didn't happen during that weekend and Monday TSHTF. That's how these crises occur usually, not by design. If something happens in Greece the details will be different but the outline will be the same.