[XMR] Monero Speculation

[elrippo]

So I'm confused... if there is a mining centralization with monero and bitcoin, what problems could that possibly bring?  As what Chennan brought up last page, if there is a finite amount of coins and there are still active big time miners confirming transactions, why does it really matter?  

It´s all about distribution of the network.
The more are actively confirming transactions, the safer the network is. If you have to trust 5 BIG players, the network gets a bit unsafe, but awnsers to these specific problems can be found by typing centralization cryptocurrency into a search enginge of your choice  

[phishead]

So I'm confused... if there is a mining centralization with monero and bitcoin, what problems could that possibly bring?  As what Chennan brought up last page, if there is a finite amount of coins and there are still active big time miners confirming transactions, why does it really matter?  

It´s all about distribution of the network.
The more are actively confirming transactions, the safer the network is. If you have to trust 5 BIG players, the network gets a bit unsafe, but awnsers to these specific problems can be found by typing centralization cryptocurrency into a search enginge of your choice  

Ok, thanks... I'll look it all up later today when I hit my lunch break at work.  Is monero still at the point of having a lot of individual little miners?  How many miners are there/nodes?  How many BIG players are in bitcoin?

[rpietila]

The loss of fun is quite bad for something still an the early adopter phase.

Yeah, but that will not happen with CK. Since the OP of the game thread, it has always contained the clear warning to not try to mess with our things if you are not a participant of the game.

I have been here before. I insulated a certain company with 4 layers of premeditated legal arguments against a court outcome. It happened nevertheless. It was important because it gave me the experience of a monkey court - trial in disregard of jurisdiction, laws and procedures.

I decided that it's enough. Diplomatic immunity in outside world is the concept for people who behave good towards everyone and can support themselves. In CK, Sovereignty is the concept. I like this much better than be a serf in outside world and no presence in CK, which unfortunately is what most people are suffering.

[elrippo]

So I'm confused... if there is a mining centralization with monero and bitcoin, what problems could that possibly bring?  As what Chennan brought up last page, if there is a finite amount of coins and there are still active big time miners confirming transactions, why does it really matter?  

It´s all about distribution of the network.
The more are actively confirming transactions, the safer the network is. If you have to trust 5 BIG players, the network gets a bit unsafe, but awnsers to these specific problems can be found by typing centralization cryptocurrency into a search enginge of your choice  

Ok, thanks... I'll look it all up later today when I hit my lunch break at work.  Is monero still at the point of having a lot of individual little miners?  How many miners are there/nodes?  How many BIG players are in bitcoin?

You are welcome. I endorse you to use the search engine of your choice to get the awnsers needed. Do some reading and you will understand the matter 

[smooth]

Is this all just about hoping for The Big Pump so we can cash out to fiat and buy Lambos or are we actually trying to accomplish something here?

I just want my Lambo.

But in all seriousness, technology will always be an arms race against governments and organizations trying to regulate and profit from it. We may win some battles, but I doubt there will ever be a time where we can sit back and live happily ever after with a perfectly incorruptible form of money.

True, but to win any battles you have to recognize them as battles worth fighting. I see a lot of people (not only here but also in other threads, reddit, etc.) assuming and accepting that Monero is just going to follow right in Bitcoin's footsteps.

Unless your objective is primarily price increases, I don't see the purpose of doing that, and many reasons fight against it. Plus it becomes questionable whether Monero can successfully achieve Bitcoin's price increases without some very strong differentiators, so this may be entirely pointless, not just pointless in terms of social and technological goals.

chennan, it is very unclear whether a system that becomes centralized can maintain integrity even on things like the number of coins, and certainly in terms of Monero's core goal of privacy. Those in control of centralized mining and transaction processing has a lot to say over what forks get introduced, and absolutely centralized control could at least block all private transactions, forcing people to identify themselves and potentially agree to other conditions, or be banned from the system.

phishead, in addition to calling into doubt the integrity of the system, and stopping privacy, centralized miners can certainly enforce blacklists, whitelists, etc. Centralization isn't just a question of mining either. Coinbase is probably the largest Bitcoin company and for the most part their customers never have direct access to Bitcoin. They are a bank and can do whatever they want or whatever the government tells them to do. KYC, spying, banning unpopular or controversial types of business, locking accounts, seizing coins, even fractional reserve, the list is endless.

[generalizethis]

Is this all just about hoping for The Big Pump so we can cash out to fiat and buy Lambos or are we actually trying to accomplish something here?

I just want my Lambo.

But in all seriousness, technology will always be an arms race against governments and organizations trying to regulate and profit from it. We may win some battles, but I doubt there will ever be a time where we can sit back and live happily ever after with a perfectly incorruptible form of money.

True, but to win any battles you have to recognize them as battles worth fighting. I see a lot of people (not only here but also in other threads, reddit, etc.) assuming and accepting that Monero is just going to follow right in Bitcoin's footsteps.

Unless your objective is primarily price increases, I don't see the purpose of doing that, and many reasons fight against it. Plus it becomes questionable whether Monero can successfully achieve Bitcoin's price increases without some very strong differentiators, so this may be entirely pointless, not just pointless in terms of social and technological goals.

chennan, it is very unclear whether a system that becomes centralized can maintain integrity even on things like the number of coins, and certainly in terms of Monero's core goal of privacy. Those in control of centralized mining and transaction processing has a lot to say over what forks get introduced, and absolutely centralized control could at least block all private transactions, forcing people to identify themselves and potentially agree to other conditions, or be banned from the system.

phishead, in addition to calling into doubt the integrity of the system, and stopping privacy, centralized miners can certainly enforce blacklists, whitelists, etc. Centralization isn't just a question of mining either. Coinbase is probably the largest Bitcoin company and for the most part their customers never have direct access to Bitcoin. They are a bank and can do whatever they want or whatever the government tells them to do. KYC, spying, banning unpopular or controversial types of business, locking accounts, seizing coins, even fractional reserve, the list is endless.

If there is a crackdown on privacy coins, I wonder if the market will become like the bath salts market where each new regulation leads to more and more offshoots. In this scenario, a Monero crackdown (voluntary or otherwise) would push people who want privacy to coins like AEON and BBR, and when those coins are targeted (or too centralized), it pushes people to new coins, and when those coins are targeted....

[rpietila]

If there is a crackdown on privacy coins, I wonder if the market will become like the bath salts market where each new regulation leads to more and more offshoots. In this scenario, a Monero crackdown (voluntary or otherwise) would push people who want privacy to coins like AEON and BBR, and when those coins are targeted (or too centralized), it pushes people to new coins, and when those coins are targeted....

I just heard that S-WW is targeted, after all it is a vague promise to perhaps get virtual White Wine from Germania some time.

Also you cannot any more mortgage properties when playing Monopoly without getting prior permission from an out-of-game notary!  

Since the value (eg. that of CK) does not exist in their world, they cannot do effective crackdown: it will take nothing from us (that we could not create back simply by restoring from backup), and they will not gain anything. This is the game banksters played when they enslaved the outside world, but it is now available for the individual and collective action of the people to play however they wish as well.

International finance is based on imagination. So are we.

[generalizethis]

If there is a crackdown on privacy coins, I wonder if the market will become like the bath salts market where each new regulation leads to more and more offshoots. In this scenario, a Monero crackdown (voluntary or otherwise) would push people who want privacy to coins like AEON and BBR, and when those coins are targeted (or too centralized), it pushes people to new coins, and when those coins are targeted....

I just heard that S-WW is targeted, after all it is a vague promise to perhaps get virtual White Wine from Germania some time.

Also you cannot any more mortgage properties when playing Monopoly without getting prior permission from an out-of-game notary!  

Shoot, next they'll take one of the horses that FH sold me. As long it isn't my prized hack "Rocinante," I think I'll be ok.

[Abiky]

During the last few days, Bitcoin's price has been increasing in value and thus maybe this will help Monero's price to increase as well. I'm not pretty sure, but this could be a good sign for XMR now that Bitcoin is the pioneer of crypto and mostly its price increase affects other alt coins prices as well. Or I could be wrong. All we have to do is wait and see XMR evolve. 

[rpietila]

If a cat walks on your Monopoly board and messes it up, if you have enough interest on the game, you can recreate the situation and continue when the cat is back where she belongs.

There is actually no difference whether it burns your house down. The ability to recreate the situation exists nevertheless, and it is even more important for you since your house is burnt down and the game is all you have.

19 Lay not up for yourselves treasures upon earth, where moth and rust doth corrupt, and where thieves break through and steal:
20 But lay up for yourselves treasures in heaven, where neither moth nor rust doth corrupt, and where thieves do not break through nor steal:
21 For where your treasure is, there will your heart be also.

Enough of this. I still have the year_change routine uncompleted 

[jehst]

Coinmarketcap.com is reporting XMR's 24 hour volume as $11,392.

This is the lowest I've ever seen it. Must be near all-time lows.

[GingerAle]

Coinmarketcap.com is reporting XMR's 24 hour volume as $11,392.

This is the lowest I've ever seen it. Must be near all-time lows.

so whats that mean? No one wants to sell at current prices, and no one wants to buy at current prices?

[Shrikez]

Nobody wanted to push through the few smallish walls around 160 so now somebody has decided to stomp on the price again.

adding to this the bot selling roundabout 10-15 k every few days in 1-3 XMR portions....bleargh.

[GingerAle]

Nobody wanted to push through the few smallish walls around 160 so now somebody has decided to stomp on the price again.

adding to this the bot selling roundabout 10-15 k every few days in 1-3 XMR portions....bleargh.

hey, thats better than 10-15k in a market sell!

[dEBRUYNE]

Nobody wanted to push through the few smallish walls around 160 so now somebody has decided to stomp on the price again.

adding to this the bot selling roundabout 10-15 k every few days in 1-3 XMR portions....bleargh.

hey, thats better than 10-15k in a market sell!

Indeed, I don't necessarily see this as a bad thing since it's most likely just a (big) miner (or sysadmin/botnet) selling. There still remain a lot of uncertainties in the crypto atmosphere, certainly because Bitcoin is currently still in a sideways/bearmarket and has a lot of alledged issues (e.g. blocksize, fungibility). So for a miner that's a bit risk averse it's perfectly reasonable to get to fiat as soon as possible. Thus, I think this has nothing to do with someone getting out or manipulating the market, but rather some (risk averse) miner just selling. Furthermore, in this way the market is the least hurt by it, so I rather prefer this than blatant market dumping. Also, we all knew the (daily) inflation beforehand.

EDIT: One more thing, it could be that traders react to this bot with the idea of selling in order to buy back lower in their mind. In other words, they profit a few % on the spread of their sell and subsequent bid order. For example, 6k was sold with an average of 0.00153 and filling all the bids until 0.0015. Subsequently, this trader sets his bids at 0.0015 and the bot will slowly fill the bids. Thus, the trader profits 2% (fees have to be substracted as well, so approximately 1.6%). This will only work if the trend is down, because during an uptrend this will definitely be a losing strategy. In addition, even during a downtrend this is a very risky and silly strategy, because the expected profit is very small compared to the variance/swings. Furthermore, you don't know for sure when the bot is done.

[Shrikez]

Nobody wanted to push through the few smallish walls around 160 so now somebody has decided to stomp on the price again.

adding to this the bot selling roundabout 10-15 k every few days in 1-3 XMR portions....bleargh.

hey, thats better than 10-15k in a market sell!

Indeed, I don't necessarily see this as a bad thing since it's most likely just a (big) miner (or sysadmin/botnet) selling. There still remain a lot of uncertainties in the crypto atmosphere, certainly because Bitcoin is currently still in a sideways/bearmarket and has a lot of alledged issues (e.g. blocksize, fungibility). So for a miner that's a bit risk averse it's perfectly reasonable to get to fiat as soon as possible. Thus, I think this has nothing to do with someone getting out or manipulating the market, but rather some (risk averse) miner just selling. Furthermore, in this way the market is the least hurt by it, so I rather prefer this than blatant market dumping. Also, we all knew the (daily) inflation beforehand.

Of course I agree with both comments. I can still bleargh at it though

HODL!

*cough*

[americanpegasus]

It's Monday, and I once again encounter one of those rare combinations of having too much caffeine and too little sleep the night before, and an unexpected freedom to meander and type during the morning.  This all combines into me offering my thoughts on the last few pages of decentralized vs. centralized discussion, and the spirit and "fun" of Monero in an unusually lucid manner.  Cherish it, for these moments of lurid clarity are precious.  
  
Any new nerd toy is fun because it's pushing the boundaries of what can be done.  There was a time when the internet did that, as did DOS and e-mail.  I remember back in high school (the 90's) when the internet was 'fun'.  We spliced phone lines and stole AOL passwords just to access the massive "wider world".  We figured out ways to socially engineer our way into all the cheerleaders e-mail passwords (which was morally wrong in retrospect, sorry, (as was fabricating drama between them for our own amusement, nested-double-sorry)).  We discovered ways to disable the school "obscenity" filter and experiment with network security.  
  
It was all 'fun' seeing the limits of what could be done.  As well, most of the "hackers" I remember from the 90's weren't criminals: they were just bright minds who were curious what was possible.  Unfortunately, some of them tested the limits of what was possible a little *too* far and got in legal trouble.  
  
Cryptocurrency is like that now: the new nerd frontier.  This is the limit of what's possible with modern technology, a will, and a way.  The fun is not bound to cryptocurrency itself - it lies in exploring the unknown.  On a larger level I believe that being very intelligent leads to a higher level of curiosity and pure-consciousness, and the primary goal of a pure human consciousness is to explore and innovate.  The nerds of the 1990's would have been fascinated with analytical engines and whether a heavier-than-air machine could ever fly had they been born a hundred years prior.  As it was, they invested their time in cryptography and computers.  It's the *conquest* that's the fun part, not necessarily the individual technology.  
  
Should we succeed and Monero grow even to a modest level (say Bitcoin's current size) then some centralization and grey-suitedness is inevitable.  That's what success feels like - leading the rest by the nose.  I have some rude news for some of you: if the world ever moves to this idealized crypto-anarchy some are fascinated with, it won't be in the next few decades.  The rules for such a system would need to be so air tight that it's simply not possible they will exist anytime soon.  As well, never forget that most people are not like you!  Most people don't care about innovation and pushing the bounds of what's possible; they are very happy with the accepted and normal.  They wish to build up status and comfort in the guidelines of a system who's rules are socially accepted and known.  You won't change them.  
  
As well, regardless of how you feel about current geo-politics, access to deadly technologies will only increase as our tech-tree grows - it won't decrease.  The average citizen now can gain access to enough weaponry to take out quite a few of his fellow citizens with him if he decides to self-destruct.  We can't allow that number to increase, and in any crypto-anarchy situation the best I've heard is that: "people competing for access will prevent the worst of us from accessing the deadliest technologies".  I don't buy it.  I believe there will always need to be some sort of government, because humans have yet to replicate the *best* machine that nature has forged over the eons: the human body.  And the human body is not fully decentralized: it is partially decentralized.  The human body also has an immune system, which guards against cancers and dangerous outside invaders.  Sometimes too much centralization can do damage (for example when a human consciousness decides to self-harm) and sometimes the immune system can be too over-zealous and damage the greater whole.  But that doesn't mean that these systems aren't necessary.  I firmly believe just as we can see the phi constant repeated throughout nature (because that is the ideal mathematical constant for several rules of physics) we will also in time discover that the human body and other mammals represents other, possibly yet-undiscovered mathematical constants related to game theory and optimization of systems.  I believe these form other ideal ratios that will shed insight into concepts so difficult that the human mind can barely process them (being comprised of these same principals).  Ask yourself: if this were not true, why have we so rapidly become masters of our domain, as a series of networked neurons slowly building an even larger network: imho, it's because we approximate these special recursive constants better than any other organism.  
  
This is why I believe full decentralization will never be achieved, nor is it desired.  But that does not mean that we should not insist on partial decentralization, because just as blood flows and the heart beats without the conscious and sentient mind being able to control it (lest it do irreparable harm), so too should money and information flow through our super-organism without the "sentient part" being able to control it, the awful ramifications of which we have already seen.  
  
The government is already here, like it or not.  They had their cryptography division doing hardcore research into this stuff back in 1996 (http://groups.csail.mit.edu/mac/classes/6.805/articles/money/nsamint/nsamint.htm).  You don't think they were all-the-fuck-over this since the dawn of the original bitcoin?  Don't be daft; of course they were.  And not just the US Government; I'm certain every major government has interest in it (as they should if they don't want to be stuck in a North Korean style dark age in the coming decades).  Like the internet, cryptocurrency was always going to be invented.  You can't fight an idea whose time has come.  The only alternative is to get there first and try to understand and shape it the best you are able.    

Despite my patriotic name, I don't represent them; don't get the wrong idea you conspiracy nuts.  I have a small time government job, but I'm not part of any three-letter agencies at the moment.  It's likely my well documented inability to do basic arithmetic and historic penchant for sexy Russian women would prevent me from obtaining any necessary clearances anyway.    
  
But don't be daft and think that cryptocurrency (like the internet) is going to be some permanently underground anarchist movement that is going to propel us all into some Keanu Reeves futuristic paradise.  It will do what all technologies do: let us be humans more effectively.  Some will get rich off understanding and adopting it.  Some will build new inventions and ecosystems on top of it.  The average soccer mom or beach brah will use it because everyone else does and they can buy cool, shiny stuff with it to entertain them or make them feel important.  Governments will have a sustained interest in monitoring and controlling it.  And those nerds who crave the "final frontier" will eventually have to cede control of cryptocurrency to the major institutions of humanity (who the nerds will certainly see as beneath them) and move on the next great frontier of the universe - whatever that may be.  
  
But that doesn't mean it all isn't real and valid.  
  
What we are doing here and now is the equivalent to the creation of the internet, democracy, or language itself.  It is literally the most important thing going on in the world right now.  You (yes you) are a participant in one of the greatest moments of humanity!  Think how important this is: we are basically inventing the dawn of an entirely new financial age!  This is the creation of the lifeblood upon which all future trade and commerce for our entire species will run, and for some reason (whether through happenstance, skill, or the guiding hand of destiny) find yourself here on that final frontier.  
  
You wanted a life of significance?  Well you're living it.  
  
This is what it's like to be the shepherd to an entire species.  And just as the sheep don't understand why they move they way they do, and they never properly thank the hand that herds them, it is unlikely anyone will ever thank you properly.  But that doesn't mean you don't matter.  
  
You want fame?  Go become the next shallow celebrity or figure out if there are any single Kardashians left.  You want to matter?  Then build with us in this very cryptocurrency space.  Because ultimately, which cell in your body is the most famous?  Does it even matter?  
  
Think back for a moment and remember the greatest, happiest moment in your life.  I know I can recall a few.  Which neuron or cell was responsible for that moment?  It doesn't matter because the entire body benefited from the contributions of the whole.  And even if one of them did tried to take credit, it wouldn't have been possible without the "sheep" cells of the hand or kidneys also doing their part.  
  
Stop fretting because our baby will one day have to grow up.  Instead be proud that you get to be part of that tiny subset of cells that get to be responsible for conscious thought, and guide the whole towards something greater.  It's not easy, and the rest of the cells might never properly appreciate your efforts.  But you aren't you.  Human civilization is larger than that now.  
  
We're us.  
  
That cat's out of the bag, and just as the human fetus' mind begins to light up and come online at a certain point in its development, so is our species finally "lighting up" with connections and systems that will serve us on our journey forward.  And the pinnacle of that journey?  To be born, and to at last come to exist in the larger reality.  
  
See you on the other side, nerd.

[Febo]

Coinmarketcap.com is reporting XMR's 24 hour volume as $11,392.

This is the lowest I've ever seen it. Must be near all-time lows.

I felt same last week. Since on Poloniex now not only one coin, but few have higher volume  then Monero.
But when went to check 30 days volume on all exchanges, Monero still stand strong. Monero dont have really bad days with almost no volume, but have steady volume 50-100 BTC everyday. You need to keep in mind, that lower the price is, more coins that is. A year ago, daily on average was traded 200-300% of mined coins. I doubt today there is much difference.

[Johnny Mnemonic]

Is this all just about hoping for The Big Pump so we can cash out to fiat and buy Lambos or are we actually trying to accomplish something here?

I just want my Lambo.

But in all seriousness, technology will always be an arms race against governments and organizations trying to regulate and profit from it. We may win some battles, but I doubt there will ever be a time where we can sit back and live happily ever after with a perfectly incorruptible form of money.

True, but to win any battles you have to recognize them as battles worth fighting. I see a lot of people (not only here but also in other threads, reddit, etc.) assuming and accepting that Monero is just going to follow right in Bitcoin's footsteps.

Exactly, and I agree with those people if we just sit back and do nothing. The battles are worth fighting. My point is we have to continue to evolve to stay ahead or we risk being consumed by the politics.

As far as I'm concerned, it's too late for Bitcoin to be saved because it failed to evolve quickly enough.

[bitebits]

See you on the other side, nerd.

Glad you drank too much caffeine AP, enjoy reading your posts!

Even though I wasn't one of the early early bitcoin adopters, I am actually quite enjoying seeing it evolve and change. And the fruits like Monero that arise from it.