[XMR] Monero Speculation

[luigi1111]

By the way the ratio of the emission to the number of coins of Bitcoin will be below that of Monero in about 13 years. (1.5625 XBT per 10 min vs 3 XMR per 10 min). This is a lot sooner that many realize.

Actually it'll happen at the halving prior to that (about 9 years):

3.125 / 21m < (0.3 * 10) / ~18.4m -- about 8% lower

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[luigi1111]

This is assuming you have the "Amount Key"?

No. The equality sum(in)-sum(out)-fee=0 is independently verified by every node or any observer without any key.

(...)

Else, you could have the problem of being too opaque, because the network peers would not be able to check if moneros were being created at will.

 
  
This is a really big deal.  If/once confidential transactions are integrated into Monero, it will be the best cryptocurrency hands down mathematically possible.  
  
The only way to improve upon it would be to enhance it's transaction per second scaling through some yet-unheard-of mathematics, but it's likely such a radical shift would break all the excellent privacy features we have built up so far.  We can handle a theoretical 1600 tx/sec now; perhaps if a way to scale easily to tens of thousands or hundreds of thousands were proposed it would be compatible with the Monero implementation.  
  
As well, we aren't sure if 1600 tx/sec will even be our final maximum (may improve over time with upgrades to software/hardware) and even if it is, that's good enough to serve as a backbone for a giant international settlement mechanism.  Visa does 40,000 tx/sec, but by the 2030's we may not be using Monero to buy coffee with - it's possible that it will serve as a financial backbone for other centralized sidechains and centralized/national/NWO currencies.  I think that most people wouldn't have as much of a problem with US Dollars, even inflationary ones if the Federal Reserve issued a view key each year and said: "As you can see, the US Dollar is currently being backed by 34 ore each.  If inflation proceeds as planned, considering our mining operations, next year the dollar will each be backed by 33.8 ore each."  (or whatever an atomic unit of Monero is designated as in the 2030's   )  

That was based on smooth's calculations (with an i7-2600k using 4 cores IIRC). I don't know how he got to 2.5ms per tx, but I assume it's accurate. Unless CPUs hit some kind of brick wall, it's a certainty that that number will improve (obviously that's for a single CPU desktop as well); the 2600k is also 4 series behind the present (or something, Intel has dorked it up).

I believe bandwidth and hard drive space are much more pressing concerns for "big" usage.

A 5 input, 5 ouput, 5 mixin Tx is about 2kB. 1,600 TPS at that made up average size would equal:

25.54 mbps up/down bandwidth (assuming receive/send each Tx once)
~269 GB / day in storage
~96 TB / year

I said somewhere that I thought 100-200 (or more) TB SSDs would be available in ~8 years, so the storage might not actually be that bad. Bandwidth will surely come a long way in 8 years too, and 25.54mbps will likely be inconsequential (which was an idealized case of course).

What's my point? Basically it is that CPUs seem to be 5-10 years "ahead of the curve" as far as cryptocurrency requirements go.

[Johnny Mnemonic]

because the thinking goes you don't care if the world knows you bought coffee and the Times

Unless you don't want the world to know your exact location. However, in that case your "coffee currency" is probably the least of your concerns.

[rdnkjdi]

People don't like having more than one thing to deal with.  Or maybe it would be more appropriate to say the market tends to pick one winner that's "good enough"

There's a reason why cash can buy a car, a house or a coffee.

My tendency is to think we will gravitate towards one currency.  I am torn on the transparent vs non transparent blockchain.  But outside of that I think it only makes sense to have one.

Maybe I'm not wrong.  But people like put up "We can used centralized services for these things, blockchain for this etc etc".  Value lies in blockchain solving all friction problems (or as many as is possible).  This includes transaction speed, privacy, transaction sizes, programmable blockchain etc.

I strongly believe crypto will slowly die off or bitcoins days are numbered.  It has completely lost it's ability to improve and knock out more of these points of friction (privacy, transaction speed, Scalability, smart contracts)

[smooth]

The 2.5ms on an i7-2700K came from NoodleDoodle's commit notes I think. It was obviously intended as a CPU-only number that was not realistic for the full system at all. I'm pretty sure even today with a multi-processor server using newer CPUs you could do many times better (if you wanted all full nodes to be on big servers in data centers). But that's still not a realistic end-to-end number at all.

[smooth]

I am torn on the transparent vs non transparent blockchain.

I'm nearly 100% certain that a transparent blockchain for currency would not exist if non-transparent blockchains were developed first. (Possibly, blockchains for things like land title records might be made transparent, if those things make sense at all.)

First mover advantage does exist though.

[rdnkjdi]

I am torn on the transparent vs non transparent blockchain.

I'm nearly 100% certain that a transparent blockchain for currency would not exist if non-transparent blockchains were developed first. (Possibly, blockchains for things like land title records might be made transparent, if those things make sense at all.)

First mover advantage does exist though.

I agree with this.  Bitcoin was the "good enough" version I guess.

[owm123]

Hmm..I'm thinking why Monero is not widely used in the darknet, like Bitcoin? XMR is more privacy focused, so why not use it on darknet markets? 

Many reasons. For once, monero is non existent in darkweb: https://i.imgur.com/e4FI4Vh.png

Second, darknet markets are about making money. No darknet cleaner, tumbler, mixer, scammer will ever introduce xmr, as they will lose their mixing fees. The lack of anonymity and fungability is perfect for darnet. Do you think scams like this would made sense if bitcoin was fungible:

DIRTY BITCOIN SALE

I have 10 Dirty Bitcoin to Sale. The price for each of them is 0.5 BTC.

http://rkea452tdivg4kbe.onion/

And I personally dont think monero needs any headlines talking how monero is used to buy drugs, guns or any other bullshit you can find in the darknet.

But, having said that, I think monero should have presence in darknet. Not for markets, but for privacy oriented ppl. Some onion websites about xmr, current exchange rate, block viewer, online wallet, etc.

[iCEBREAKER]

(Even as it still remains a commodity in the US)

It is a currency, a commodity, or property depending on who is defining it. Each agency defines it to maximize its own jurisdiction.

And of course the black-robed whores of the court system will wink at this obvious logical contradiction and the equity it destroys.

"Take it up with Congress" they'll say.  "Executive overreach is somebody else's problem; sorry about that" they'll deflect.

Checks and balances between branches of .gov are not very hot right now.  



Coming soon to a decentralized Turing-complete blockchain near you...

[luigi1111]

The 2.5ms on an i7-2700K came from NoodleDoodle's commit notes I think. It was obviously intended as a CPU-only number that was not realistic for the full system at all. I'm pretty sure even today with a multi-processor server using newer CPUs you could do many times better (if you wanted all full nodes to be on big servers in data centers). But that's still not a realistic end-to-end number at all.

Oh, I thought it was a 2600k, but what's 0.1Ghz among friends?

So for fun:

http://www.supermicro.com/products/system/5U/5086/SYS-5086B-TRF.cfm

Throw in 8x http://ark.intel.com/products/84685 @ a per-unit price of $7174.

Ignore other components (who needs 'em?).

Let's assume that the per-clock "tx checking" performance of these Haswells are the same as Sandy Bridge (unlikely, should be better). That's ~286 Tx's / sec / core.

286 * 18 * 8 = 41,142 TPS

BAM, we're VISA.



I should find something better to do.

[smooth]

The 2.5ms on an i7-2700K came from NoodleDoodle's commit notes I think. It was obviously intended as a CPU-only number that was not realistic for the full system at all. I'm pretty sure even today with a multi-processor server using newer CPUs you could do many times better (if you wanted all full nodes to be on big servers in data centers). But that's still not a realistic end-to-end number at all.

Oh, I thought it was a 2600k, but what's 0.1Ghz among friends?

I don't even know. Quite possibly I misremembered or it was a typo on my part.

[SmoothCurves]

Just going to throw out that if Monero makes it to 2020 it's going to be trading at much higher prices. Probably 200-1000 usd per coin.

[rpietila]

I feel the most important thing is the community. The technology is good already, and its progress is slow for the reasons we know.

My understanding is that the core part of the community is in it with the proper "Venture Capital" mindset, meaning that they are unaffected of the fluctuations of the exchange rate, and just want to "call to the end". This lessens the risk that all fold at the same time, and even if that happened, the development would just continue as it is not motivated nor dependent on the exchange rate.

Tbh, I think that the risk that Monero would be abandoned is negligible. At the worst, the exchange rate would continue its descent, with the result that the ownership of coins becomes even more concentrated to the strong hands. I don't think extreme concentration is good but we just have to deal with it. I believe the current owners will release a good part of their coins when the price rises the next magnitude.

A number of XMR was already bought by "the company" but it has more powder in the reserve. I have personally spent my best to further CK which is already in a pretty impressive condition including having a functioning ingame exchange for all items. CK is unlikely to have a major impact on the exchange rate in the next 3 months due to the low absolute number of players, but in the next 12 months it is likely to have a significant impact if successful as a game.

[boolberry]

I feel the most important thing is the community. The technology is good already, and its progress is slow for the reasons we know.

My understanding is that the core part of the community is in it with the proper "Venture Capital" mindset, meaning that they are unaffected of the fluctuations of the exchange rate, and just want to "call to the end". This lessens the risk that all fold at the same time, and even if that happened, the development would just continue as it is not motivated nor dependent on the exchange rate.

Tbh, I think that the risk that Monero would be abandoned is negligible. At the worst, the exchange rate would continue its descent, with the result that the ownership of coins becomes even more concentrated to the strong hands. I don't think extreme concentration is good but we just have to deal with it. I believe the current owners will release a good part of their coins when the price rises the next magnitude.

A number of XMR was already bought by "the company" but it has more powder in the reserve. I have personally spent my best to further CK which is already in a pretty impressive condition including having a functioning ingame exchange for all items. CK is unlikely to have a major impact on the exchange rate in the next 3 months due to the low absolute number of players, but in the next 12 months it is likely to have a significant impact if successful as a game.

The in game exchange is a really nice feature and should encourage spending of in game currency. How many players would it take for you to define the game as a success?

[rpietila]

How many players would it take for you to define the game as a success?

I think even 10,000 players would do, since if they deposit only 1/10 of the amount per person as the Ancients have done, it means 1M XMR in the depositories and a major boost to XMR as the result.

Of course it is not a trivial task to get such a number, but our next task is to develop the game to appeal to a wider audience of intelligent players.

There is always the possibility for major success - a million players will move the exchange rate of XMR to a whole new level.

(The game currently has 100 players)

[nioc]

Since we hit 275 now, you say we go revisit ~250 and then go to 290 and then down (down to where) ?

It already exceeded my upside by a small amount, but my timing model says it is likely to turn down starting today.  Thus today would be the correct time to rotate from BTC to XMR.  If it continues to rise past the expected turning point, 292, 300 are resistance levels, and a conservative estimation of the next top, if it drops as timing models indicate.  The support levels are 266, 250, 244, 220.  My current expectation is that the top is in, for the next few weeks, and I do not expect a pullback below 240.  Cycle times have been running about 3 to 4 months, top to top, and that is my best estimate of the next cycle time.  My alternative scenario is for 3 weeks of continued climb, starting late next week from a slightly lower level, probably touching 300 before a downtrend begins.  My own strategy is to rotate 60% of btc into XMR today, and hold out 40% to rotate near XBTUSD 300, in case the second scenario is more accurate.  In either case, when timing models indicate a BTC bottom is in, I will then rotate the position (a small trading fraction of my overall holding position) from BTC into XMR.

I don't understand. You sell BTC to buy XMR when BTC is topping, and sell BTC to buy XMR when BTC is bottoming, what's the logic behind that?

I believe it is based on the pattern that when btc goes down Monero is priced higher in btc and when btc goes up Monero is priced lower in btc.  

Is this pattern correct?  Several people say they have observed it.  If it exists, will it continue?  Don't try this at home  It seems most people hold a large % of their coins and trade a small %.

Just going to throw out that if Monero makes it to 2020 it's going to be trading at much higher prices. Probably 200-1000 usd per coin.

If I make it to 2020 I'll be pleasantly surprised

[jehst]

Since we hit 275 now, you say we go revisit ~250 and then go to 290 and then down (down to where) ?

It already exceeded my upside by a small amount, but my timing model says it is likely to turn down starting today.  Thus today would be the correct time to rotate from BTC to XMR.  If it continues to rise past the expected turning point, 292, 300 are resistance levels, and a conservative estimation of the next top, if it drops as timing models indicate.  The support levels are 266, 250, 244, 220.  My current expectation is that the top is in, for the next few weeks, and I do not expect a pullback below 240.  Cycle times have been running about 3 to 4 months, top to top, and that is my best estimate of the next cycle time.  My alternative scenario is for 3 weeks of continued climb, starting late next week from a slightly lower level, probably touching 300 before a downtrend begins.  My own strategy is to rotate 60% of btc into XMR today, and hold out 40% to rotate near XBTUSD 300, in case the second scenario is more accurate.  In either case, when timing models indicate a BTC bottom is in, I will then rotate the position (a small trading fraction of my overall holding position) from BTC into XMR.

I don't understand. You sell BTC to buy XMR when BTC is topping, and sell BTC to buy XMR when BTC is bottoming, what's the logic behind that?

I believe it is based on the pattern that when btc goes down Monero is priced higher in btc and when btc goes up Monero is priced lower in btc.  

Is this pattern correct?  Several people say they have observed it.  If it exists, will it continue?  Don't try this at home  It seems most people hold a large % of their coins and trade a small %.

Just going to throw out that if Monero makes it to 2020 it's going to be trading at much higher prices. Probably 200-1000 usd per coin.

If I make it to 2020 I'll be pleasantly surprised

You don't think you will be alive in 5 years?

[iCEBREAKER]

I feel the most important thing is the community. The technology is good already, and its progress is slow for the reasons we know.

My understanding is that the core part of the community is in it with the proper "Venture Capital" mindset, meaning that they are unaffected of the fluctuations of the exchange rate, and just want to "call to the end". This lessens the risk that all fold at the same time, and even if that happened, the development would just continue as it is not motivated nor dependent on the exchange rate.

Tbh, I think that the risk that Monero would be abandoned is negligible. At the worst, the exchange rate would continue its descent, with the result that the ownership of coins becomes even more concentrated to the strong hands. I don't think extreme concentration is good but we just have to deal with it. I believe the current owners will release a good part of their coins when the price rises the next magnitude.

A number of XMR was already bought by "the company" but it has more powder in the reserve. I have personally spent my best to further CK which is already in a pretty impressive condition including having a functioning ingame exchange for all items. CK is unlikely to have a major impact on the exchange rate in the next 3 months due to the low absolute number of players, but in the next 12 months it is likely to have a significant impact if successful as a game.

Monero is only the vehicle for the next phase of the cypherpunk/crypto-anarchist/radical capitalist/anti-authoritarian r3VOLution.

If Monero fails, other means of implementation may be used.

But I don't believe it will.  The CT modifications are raising expectations and hopes, while diminishing fears of competition from Zerocash.  Every passing day contributes additional Lindy effects, and we have secret weapons...

Code:

[{SN}|{NS}]

[americanpegasus]

Monero is only the vehicle for the next phase of the cypherpunk/crypto-anarchist/radical capitalist/anti-authoritarian r3VOLution.

 
  
   Some of us openly have government jobs (despite being small potato peons) and have security clearances to worry about, so as a matter of record I personally would strongly disagree with all of those statements.  Call it whatever you like though, fortunately math is not a matter of opinion.    
  
I personally believe we will see $2,000 Moneros by 2020, possibly a little higher.  I think $20,000 Moneros come before 2025, and $200,000 Moneros come before 2030.  These time tables might move a lot faster depending on a variety of factors.  I think that I can see what Monero's 'fractal shape' might be though... and well,  

[nioc]

Just going to throw out that if Monero makes it to 2020 it's going to be trading at much higher prices. Probably 200-1000 usd per coin.

If I make it to 2020 I'll be pleasantly surprised

You don't think you will be alive in 5 years?

I have no expectations one way or the other.   Thank you for your concern.

My interest here in the speculation thread has more to do with Monero's long term prospects.

I am more impressed as time goes on by both Monero's devs and community after first being here for the basic idea of Monero.