[XMR] Monero Speculation

[Its About Sharing]

Lets calm down- this is starting to sound like the DASH thread a week ago.

I am not sure if this is a specualtion thread. I am sorry if I wrote on the wrong thread...

I've put in a request to rename this thread the Monero Responsible Speculation thread.
I suggest you start an Optimistic Monero Speculation thread.  

I don't think it is optimistic to think that Monero could hit 10 usd this year regardless if btc price.
It is realistic view in my opinion, and I never said it will happen but it is realistic to happen.
Even now if XMR cost 10 usd per coin it means the daily mining output costs 160 000 usd which is not impossible to eat (with today's reward rate - not to mention with the reward of the end of the year). Correct me if I am wrong but LTC was able to eat even larger emission than that.
That being said, most likely 10 usd will not be hit this run. Perhaps 5 usd is realistic peak with the current pump.

I actually agree with you on most of what you said. I was thinking that 10 USD seems a little high, unless BTC gets moving again, of course.
I settled on a more "fair" valuation of $3-$5, maybe $7, given the current BTC price range.
I guess I should have used green front as I thought it was clear I was joking. 

As the alt market moves forward we are going to start to see a HUGE separation between the coins with a chance, that are legitimate, etc. at least during these initial run ups as it is done 99%+ by people who are in the BTC scene. As the public becomes aware of BTC and then the alts, I think we will see a boom of the market, BUT, there will still be the Monero's and such at the top and then some mid tier coins, etc.

It is EASY to forget we are EXTREMELY early adopters here. Don't for a moment think that what happened in 2012-2013 with BTC is done, nor exclusive to BTC.
We will have our moment to shine imo.

[farfiman]

The problem is Monero was low for so long time, so I hear still the echo of bearish talks here.
I will repeat what I said before.
...snip

It's not being bearish- it's realistic long term view after watching many coins for a few years.
Sure monero can hit 10$,100$ ,1000$  maybe even more- EVENTUALLY.
Talk like that because of a 30% rise in day just brings disappointment in the short term.

[TrueCryptonaire]

The problem is Monero was low for so long time, so I hear still the echo of bearish talks here.
I will repeat what I said before.
...snip

It's not being bearish- it's realistic long term view after watching many coins for a few years.
Sure monero can hit 10$,100$ ,1000$  maybe even more- EVENTUALLY.
Talk like that because of a 30% rise in day just brings disappointment in the short term.

Well, Risto said almost 1 year ago when Monero was launched that Monero trading will take place in his opinion between 0.002-0.004.
When this was said, the emission was almost 50 % higher than currently.
Monero peaked around midsummer feast at 5 usd - and this happened almost a year ago when nothing has been done almost to the code base. If it was possible then, why not today?
After all, I am now on the water for long long long time. My average buying price is somewhere around 0.003-0.0035. And when I bought most of my Moneros bitcoin was trading between 400-685 usd.
I think many were buying along me so there is not that much sellers at current prices. Also I doubt if long term bagholders like me and the others are selling at 10-30 % profit. I assume we are expecting much more if we ever want to sell even. Much better if there will be useful stuff to buy directly with XMR - and prefertably from Monero-friendly people who do not dump immediately after receiving the payment.
In my opinion, the fair price for Monero is now where the darkcoin is (around 0.02). Given the development and lowering block reward, the community etc.

[farfiman]

Well, Risto said almost 1 year ago when Monero was launched that Monero trading will take place in his opinion between 0.002-0.004.
When this was said, the emission was almost 50 % higher than currently.
Monero peaked around midsummer feast at 5 usd - and this happened almost a year ago when nothing has been done almost to the code base. If it was possible then, why not today?
After all, I am now on the water for long long long time. My average buying price is somewhere around 0.003-0.0035. And when I bought most of my Moneros bitcoin was trading between 400-685 usd.
I think many were buying along me so there is not that much sellers at current prices. Also I doubt if long term bagholders like me and the others are selling at 10-30 % profit. I assume we are expecting much more if we ever want to sell even. Much better if there will be useful stuff to buy directly with XMR - and prefertably from Monero-friendly people who do not dump immediately after receiving the payment.
In my opinion, the fair price for Monero is now where the darkcoin is (around 0.02). Given the development and lowering block reward, the community etc.

I'll be glad as you if we go up so more. But there are plenty of people with coins bought between 0.001-0.003 (and btc bought at 200-250) that will sell with a nice profit at this time- it just takes a flatline price for a bit and people get jittery.

[GingerAle]

Well, Risto said almost 1 year ago when Monero was launched that Monero trading will take place in his opinion between 0.002-0.004.
When this was said, the emission was almost 50 % higher than currently.
Monero peaked around midsummer feast at 5 usd - and this happened almost a year ago when nothing has been done almost to the code base. If it was possible then, why not today?
After all, I am now on the water for long long long time. My average buying price is somewhere around 0.003-0.0035. And when I bought most of my Moneros bitcoin was trading between 400-685 usd.
I think many were buying along me so there is not that much sellers at current prices. Also I doubt if long term bagholders like me and the others are selling at 10-30 % profit. I assume we are expecting much more if we ever want to sell even. Much better if there will be useful stuff to buy directly with XMR - and prefertably from Monero-friendly people who do not dump immediately after receiving the payment.
In my opinion, the fair price for Monero is now where the darkcoin is (around 0.02). Given the development and lowering block reward, the community etc.

I'll be glad as you if we go up so more. But there are plenty of people with coins bought between 0.001-0.003 (and btc bought at 200-250) that will sell with a nice profit at this time- it just takes a flatline price for a bit and people get jittery.

But then we can announce the release of something ridiculous!

so it seems there will be a wave of profit takers from the 0.001 buyin era, and then later there will be a wave from the higher eras.

I dunno though. From the outside, it looks like the activity is different currently. Granted, I know jack squat about cryptocurrency markets, but I never saw these huge accumulation buys during the 0.001 range.

[rpietila]

A "life-changing amount of purchasing power" for someone who was living "normal developed world life" is USD 2-10 million.

Monero (unlike Bitcoin) has not generated any such people, because nether the craftiest miner nor the shrewdest speculator has been able to amass XMR valued at 2, let alone 10 million dollars. Both because such amounts are either impossible or statistically heavy outliers, and because acquiring them would have required resources that are outside the realm of people living such middle-class life.

Therefore, we can conclude that the divestment from such people, enough in quantity to cap a major rally, is not happening until such people exist. Any selling below that is speculative selling by speculators, but as analysed before, very few were left after the prolonged downtrend. Starting from now, some will be gained.

In my analysis, the uptrend will now continue until a tipping point (no timeframe given), and then recede possibly to 0.003-0.0045 area. Because my prior forecast that XMR "does not like" 0.002-0.003 range seems to have been confirmed, dips to this range are buying opportunities.

The emergence of USD pricing (decoupling from BTC) means that the ranges should be revised upwards. For those pricing in USD, $1 will be a good choice of a "sticky price". Also BTC took a multi-month breather around that price in the middle of the 2010-2011 uptrend, on its way to $32.

[rpietila]

But there are plenty of people with coins bought between 0.001-0.003

There are very few people who were
1) not heavily involved in XMR before 0.001-0.003;
2) who are not ardent believers now, and
3) who did buy in that range, and
4) have not already sold.

The other people (who of course did buy all the coins mined in that period) are not selling at these prices except trickle quantities. See my prior post.

Actually, "these people" is a group that is increasing now. The quantity of "XMR for short-term speculation" is growing during the uptrend.

[TrueCryptonaire]

Well, Risto said almost 1 year ago when Monero was launched that Monero trading will take place in his opinion between 0.002-0.004.
When this was said, the emission was almost 50 % higher than currently.
Monero peaked around midsummer feast at 5 usd - and this happened almost a year ago when nothing has been done almost to the code base. If it was possible then, why not today?
After all, I am now on the water for long long long time. My average buying price is somewhere around 0.003-0.0035. And when I bought most of my Moneros bitcoin was trading between 400-685 usd.
I think many were buying along me so there is not that much sellers at current prices. Also I doubt if long term bagholders like me and the others are selling at 10-30 % profit. I assume we are expecting much more if we ever want to sell even. Much better if there will be useful stuff to buy directly with XMR - and prefertably from Monero-friendly people who do not dump immediately after receiving the payment.
In my opinion, the fair price for Monero is now where the darkcoin is (around 0.02). Given the development and lowering block reward, the community etc.

I'll be glad as you if we go up so more. But there are plenty of people with coins bought between 0.001-0.003 (and btc bought at 200-250) that will sell with a nice profit at this time- it just takes a flatline price for a bit and people get jittery.

Well, that's true.
There definetely are people who might take take their profits at some point...
Historically, however, Monero has been able to handle 30 % daily pump without crash. The crash takes place if the pump is 35+ % for longer time (like 1-2 days).
People like me are not even taking profits at 10 usd per coin, we are building here new economy, not pumping and dumping.
That being said, it is interesting to speculate and also try to guess when it is good entry point to add stash and when it is time to be neutral.
Selling takes place at least in my case when we clearly see noobs coming into the markets and they need their part of the pie. I am willing to share some of mine to them.

[Biro Bob]

IMO - Monero is what people thought Bitcoin was in 2013... Anonymous!

As such, a lot of the earlier adopters of Bitcoin who were the ones that took it over $100 (before it was famous) are the ones that are looking at Monero to carry the torch forward.

litecoin offers nothing of value over Bitcoin, so you may as well buy Bitcoin. Whilst I did hold Litecoin for a while - i will not do it again.

 Monero lacks basic ecommerce APIs or simple 'newbie, clients or even a Direct USD to Monero exchange but it does have an optimistic roadmap and I think that its own community can easily drive the price higher than it is now (even without these things) and a lot higher when the infrastructure becomes more robust.

The speculators have only just started to wake up and many of them are looking for a better payday than .004 per Monero and will probably hold longer to see if the roadmap materialises as promised.

[TrueCryptonaire]

IMO - Monero is what people thought Bitcoin was in 2013... Anonymous!

As such, a lot of the earlier adopters of Bitcoin who were the ones that took it over $100 (before it was famous) are the ones that are looking at Monero to carry the torch forward.

litecoin offers nothing of value over Bitcoin, so you may as well buy Bitcoin. Whilst I did hold Litecoin for a while - i will not do it again.

 Monero lacks basic ecommerce APIs or simple 'newbie, clients or even a Direct USD to Monero exchange but it does have an optimistic roadmap and I think that its own community can easily drive the price higher than it is now (even without these things) and a lot higher when the infrastructure becomes more robust.

The speculators have only just started to wake up and many of them are looking for a better payday than .004 per Monero and will probably hold longer to see if the roadmap materialises as promised.

Keep in mind also, that bull trend is preventing speculators from selling.
Who wants to kill a cow for one time meat if it gives you milk for rest of cow's life.

[mmortal03]

Any theories on why the network hashrate isn't going up?  You'd think more people would mine it if it became profitable for them to do so.

[GingerAle]

Any theories on why the network hashrate isn't going up?  You'd think more people would mine it if it became profitable for them to do so.

large scale monero mining == a pain kinda sorta. Special versions of GPU miners etc.

i've read that most professional miners wait for a high price to stabilize before committing resources.

average joe miners still flummoxed by lack of GUI.

I mean, I guess the main miner drifter would be from litecoin or DRK - those are mostly GPU mined still, right?

[dEBRUYNE]

Any theories on why the network hashrate isn't going up?  You'd think more people would mine it if it became profitable for them to do so.

large scale monero mining == a pain kinda sorta. Special versions of GPU miners etc.

i've read that most professional miners wait for a high price to stabilize before committing resources.

average joe miners still flummoxed by lack of GUI.

I mean, I guess the main miner drifter would be from litecoin or DRK - those are mostly GPU mined still, right?

I don't know about DRK but litecoin most certainly not. There are already a bunch of ASICs out for mining litecoin.

[Its About Sharing]

IMO - Monero is what people thought Bitcoin was in 2013... Anonymous!

As such, a lot of the earlier adopters of Bitcoin who were the ones that took it over $100 (before it was famous) are the ones that are looking at Monero to carry the torch forward.

litecoin offers nothing of value over Bitcoin, so you may as well buy Bitcoin. Whilst I did hold Litecoin for a while - i will not do it again.

 Monero lacks basic ecommerce APIs or simple 'newbie, clients or even a Direct USD to Monero exchange but it does have an optimistic roadmap and I think that its own community can easily drive the price higher than it is now (even without these things) and a lot higher when the infrastructure becomes more robust.

The speculators have only just started to wake up and many of them are looking for a better payday than .004 per Monero and will probably hold longer to see if the roadmap materialises as promised.

I think the bolded is quite true. Just as BTC was (and will continue to be) a revolution of sorts, it appears that another Trojan Horse (perhaps several) is due on the scene to push the boundaries/tech further.
And in many of our opinions here, it appears Monero has an incredibly good shot at this "pushing".

Many of us BTC "followers" get the disruptive anti-fragile technology and what that really means. But I wonder how many really do.
This is not about getting rich, though that is a bit of a revolution as far as money disbursement goes.
This is about pushing the envelope of what we thought money was, what it is and further what it is becoming (e.g. how we define it).

This Black Swan is only getting started (BTC, XMR, etc.) and it is going to organically morph and adapt... and destroy (or rather help to) what we no longer need.
The Ross trial is a teeny little glimpse into disruption. I get a feeling the boundaries are going to be really stretched here.

And I wonder, just as those early BTC adopters created liquidity out of nothing and helped to create a whole space, we are going to see a subset of them further take this space via XMR to a perhaps more "extreme" place. And for the betterment of us all, don't forget the other.

Its about sharing

[cAPSLOCK]

Lets calm down- this is starting to sound like the DASH thread a week ago.

I am not sure if this is a specualtion thread. I am sorry if I wrote on the wrong thread...

Speculate away- just with reason

If Monero does what it is designed for - becomes a better gold - it will have to rise 1,000,000 times higher in value.

It is hard to sound reasonable when this is the background.*

*(gold's marketcap/XMR's marketcap)

I have felt for a year that the use case for Monero as a private store of value was relatively ignored.  The one property it lacks currently for that to be the case is price stability.  But we can't have that until it agrees with me as to what it is actually worth.

[farfiman]

But there are plenty of people with coins bought between 0.001-0.003

There are very few people who were
1) not heavily involved in XMR before 0.001-0.003;
2) who are not ardent believers now, and
3) who did buy in that range, and
4) have not already sold.

The other people (who of course did buy all the coins mined in that period) are not selling at these prices except trickle quantities. See my prior post.

Actually, "these people" is a group that is increasing now. The quantity of "XMR for short-term speculation" is growing during the uptrend.

I guess we shall see in the next few days. If it drops then I guess there were enough people in the profit zone to sell now (I'll rule out "non-believers for now)

[pandher]

The current Monero rise is impressive. Baby steps

[thelibertycap]

Any theories on why the network hashrate isn't going up?  You'd think more people would mine it if it became profitable for them to do so.

I think hashrate usually follows the price up with some delay. Mining is a business of its own, you don't mine to invest in a coin, you buy the coin.

[futureofbitcoin]

what do you guys think will happen to xmr price IF bitcoin goes to say $150? Would that make xmr go higher or lower? Or no correlation?

[drawingthesun]

what do you guys think will happen to xmr price IF bitcoin goes to say $150? Would that make xmr go higher or lower? Or no correlation?

I have found that the price of Monero relative to Bitcoin decreases initially on any Bitcoin down swing.

We haven't really had Monero during a true Bitcoin up swing so who knows.
When Bitcoin hit $1,000+ Litecoin took a while to truly catch up, and when it did, $45!

That's $45 for coin 4 times less scarce and more useless than Monero.

If Monero has the database and GUI work partially integrated into the main client by the time Bitcoin has a true $1,000, $2,000 up swing, we could see Monero going crazy.

I know you asked about Bitcoin going down, but I just feel like being more optimistic.

I think that any Bitcoin decrease will not be a good thing for Monero (unless Monero is the reason for the decrease, however that's unlikely to ever happen....)