[XMR] Monero Speculation

[luigi1111]

Let me put the emissions thing another way. The coin is supposed to be cheap at this point. It is barely used, technology isn't mature or highly usable, and merchant support is essentially nonexistent. Why anyone expect otherwise?

The purpose of PoW distribution is to continually dump coins on the market so that any sustained price rises are credible evidence of strong and sustained demand. It is the opposite of a closely held coin with no ongoing preprogrammed distribution where for example two insiders can trade coins between each other at whatever price they want. (Distribution to existing coin holders as with PoS doesn't count, that is just inflation.)

It's the same with Bitcoin BTW. It got pumped by China and maybe Willie to 1000+ USD but the relentless drip, drip, drip of 3.6 million USD per day being dumped on to the market by a preprogrammed selling process eroded the ability of of hoarders and pumpers (and deadbeat bots?) to keep the price up. Now we are below 1 million USD per day and that level of demand, at least, seems to be there (as evidenced by the past few months of price stability).

This is not a bad thing at all. It means people looking to get into Bitcoin (or Monero) now have a more realistic and sustainable entry price. They have less to fear from buying into a bubble and being left holding a bag than if they faced the prospect of buying at 1000 (BTC) or 0.01 (XMR).

Most people in the world do not own BTC or XMR. The preprogrammed mining/dumping serves to represent their interests, as opposed to a few tulip bulb (or "golden donkey") buyers trying to get rich quickly.

Excellent description of PoW distribution. The rate of distribution can have significant effect.

Speaking of which, I've lost my link of a Monero distribution chart I thought I had bookmarked.

It was just a table showing predicted disbursements going forward to the inflection point where they stop decreasing.

If anyone has any idea what I'm talking about could you please re-link? Thank you.

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1qXi7zUSIh7F6UuSuhOryyFbHEy_LJuym3I3neAga_2s/edit#gid=239466694

Hey, cool, someone's using this!


<whining>(I feel like I should get a brief mention, at least.)</whining>

sorry I didn't know, I have it bookmarked it here its very useful thanks.

It's really not an issue; I posted it a while back and got exactly 0 responses or comments AFAIR, so I figured it must be pretty worthless (though I thought it was kinda neat).

[sphericon]

It's really not an issue; I posted it a while back and got exactly 0 responses or comments AFAIR, so I figured it must be pretty worthless (though I thought it was kinda neat).

Dont worry, we love you. Keep it up,  man 

[dEBRUYNE]

Perfect 



Note: Bitcoinwisdom is still not showing the asks properly, to properly see the askside head over to poloniex itself and don't get fooled by wisdom.

[macsga]

I decided that it was time for me to get some more and bought the dip of 0.0019 with my play money. I could certainly buy some more but decided to wait and see how the pressure is forming around here. In any case I foresee this area is the new bottom...

[dnaleor]

I decided that it was time for me to get some more and bought the dip of 0.0019 with my play money. I could certainly buy some more but decided to wait and see how the pressure is forming around here. In any case I foresee this area is the new bottom...

indeed, I bought also a nice chunk around 0.002. it was a long time since I bought this much. (bought a little around 0.0028-0.003 too)

[GingerAle]

I decided that it was time for me to get some more and bought the dip of 0.0019 with my play money. I could certainly buy some more but decided to wait and see how the pressure is forming around here. In any case I foresee this area is the new bottom...

indeed, I bought also a nice chunk around 0.002. it was a long time since I bought this much. (bought a little around 0.0028-0.003 too)

My theory regarding the recent price movement is that after the recent high, we saw the increase in network hashrate - more miners coming online. I figure those that come online during these uptrends are looking for a buck, as opposed to those that mine in the < .002 range. Looks like these miners cashed out.

[slapper]

I decided that it was time for me to get some more and bought the dip of 0.0019 with my play money. I could certainly buy some more but decided to wait and see how the pressure is forming around here. In any case I foresee this area is the new bottom...

indeed, I bought also a nice chunk around 0.002. it was a long time since I bought this much. (bought a little around 0.0028-0.003 too)

My theory regarding the recent price movement is that after the recent high, we saw the increase in network hashrate - more miners coming online. I figure those that come online during these uptrends are looking for a buck, as opposed to those that mine in the < .002 range. Looks like these miners cashed out.

LMAO. Should be added to "lies bagholders tell themselves" thread. There were upwards of 250k coins dumped since the rise. They were dumped by those who were questioning the dumps in these threads and are being bought back again by those same people for profits and extending their Monero positions, some of them are the same people who are now claiming :"I bought MOAR". One of them even claimed they had to dump because they wanted some money in the short term (large holder) and after a few days were asking "why is the price going down?" LOL

Sure a few "new" miners dumped but that delta for the hash rate doesn't explain the volume of coins dumped. These are old Bitcoin hands everyone will deal with in this coin.

[darlidada]

I decided that it was time for me to get some more and bought the dip of 0.0019 with my play money. I could certainly buy some more but decided to wait and see how the pressure is forming around here. In any case I foresee this area is the new bottom...

indeed, I bought also a nice chunk around 0.002. it was a long time since I bought this much. (bought a little around 0.0028-0.003 too)

My theory regarding the recent price movement is that after the recent high, we saw the increase in network hashrate - more miners coming online. I figure those that come online during these uptrends are looking for a buck, as opposed to those that mine in the < .002 range. Looks like these miners cashed out.

LMAO. Should be added to "lies bagholders tell themselves" thread. There were upwards of 250k coins dumped since the rise. They were dumped by those who were questioning the dumps in these threads and are being bought back again by those same people for profits and extending their Monero positions, some of them are the same people who are now claiming :"I bought MOAR". One of them even claimed they had to dump because they wanted some money in the short term (large holder) and after a few days were asking "why is the price going down?" LOL

Sure a few "new" miners dumped but that delta for the hash rate doesn't explain the volume of coins dumped. These are old Bitcoin hands everyone will deal with in this coin.

care to explain about old bitcoin hands? it seems more obvious for you than for the rest of us

[GingerAle]

I decided that it was time for me to get some more and bought the dip of 0.0019 with my play money. I could certainly buy some more but decided to wait and see how the pressure is forming around here. In any case I foresee this area is the new bottom...

indeed, I bought also a nice chunk around 0.002. it was a long time since I bought this much. (bought a little around 0.0028-0.003 too)

My theory regarding the recent price movement is that after the recent high, we saw the increase in network hashrate - more miners coming online. I figure those that come online during these uptrends are looking for a buck, as opposed to those that mine in the < .002 range. Looks like these miners cashed out.

LMAO. Should be added to "lies bagholders tell themselves" thread. There were upwards of 250k coins dumped since the rise. They were dumped by those who were questioning the dumps in these threads and are being bought back again by those same people for profits and extending their Monero positions, some of them are the same people who are now claiming :"I bought MOAR". One of them even claimed they had to dump because they wanted some money in the short term (large holder) and after a few days were asking "why is the price going down?" LOL

Sure a few "new" miners dumped but that delta for the hash rate doesn't explain the volume of coins dumped. These are old Bitcoin hands everyone will deal with in this coin.

care to explain about old bitcoin hands? it seems more obvious for you than for the rest of us

Welp, glad I provided a laugh. I guess "downward pressure" would have been a better phraseology, but I get your point.

But counter that, u say 250k coins dumped... i did a recent estimate that 500k coins were emitted since the peak, so your 250 is roughly half of that, and the network hashrate seemed to peek at 17-18... but its now at 14. Its been bouncy recently though. I think I saw 11 again at one point.

But completely disregard my speculations. I don't even know why I pop up in here. Mainly because the ANN thread gets slow sometimes.

[slapper]

Welp, glad I provided a laugh. I guess "downward pressure" would have been a better phraseology, but I get your point.

But counter that, u say 250k coins dumped... i did a recent estimate that 500k coins were emitted since the peak, so your 250 is roughly half of that, and the network hashrate seemed to peek at 17-18... but its now at 14. Its been bouncy recently though. I think I saw 11 again at one point.

But completely disregard my speculations. I don't even know why I pop up in here. Mainly because the ANN thread gets slow sometimes.

If going back to recent highs of March(0.0043?), around 1.5 million coins have been dumped since then. Mined coins during this time is closer to 500k as you noted. You are trying to explain a dump of that proportion to a 15% hash rate increase for a few days from new miners who eventually dumped. It is just not the case. It is poker, on a daily basis. You just have to learn their tells

[cAPSLOCK]

Welp, glad I provided a laugh. I guess "downward pressure" would have been a better phraseology, but I get your point.

But counter that, u say 250k coins dumped... i did a recent estimate that 500k coins were emitted since the peak, so your 250 is roughly half of that, and the network hashrate seemed to peek at 17-18... but its now at 14. Its been bouncy recently though. I think I saw 11 again at one point.

But completely disregard my speculations. I don't even know why I pop up in here. Mainly because the ANN thread gets slow sometimes.

If going back to recent highs of March(0.0043?), around 1.5 million coins have been dumped since then. Mined coins during this time is closer to 500k as you noted. You are trying to explain a dump of that proportion to a 15% hash rate increase for a few days from new miners who eventually dumped. It is just not the case. It is poker, on a daily basis. You just have to learn their tells

So.  This is the way a market works.  Speculators are churning these numbers all the time.  When you say 1.5MM coins dumped then you have to say that also means 1.5MM coins bought.  Why are you mad about a liquid market.  I am glad there are both buyers and sellers.  Your opinion seems to be these 1.5MM coins have been sold by "old bitcoin hands" into bag holders.  That implies a fairly polarized view of who is trading here.  Evil geniuses and idiots.

If there is a conspiracy please shed more light on it for us. 

[americanpegasus]

So I'm gonna take a position in Monero. 
 
I like it, and I think it will become the new "litecoin". 
 
If you whales could not dump on me, and if this could actually be the bottom, that would be super-kewl.  kthx. 

[Oscilson]

So I'm gonna take a position in Monero. 
 
I like it, and I think it will become the new "litecoin". 
 
If you whales could not dump on me, and if this could actually be the bottom, that would be super-kewl.  kthx. 

Monero is anonymous bitcoin. litecoin is not very well at present.

[nakaone]

So I'm gonna take a position in Monero. 
 
I like it, and I think it will become the new "litecoin". 
 
If you whales could not dump on me, and if this could actually be the bottom, that would be super-kewl.  kthx. 

are you the r/bitcoin legend?

good to have you on board anyway

[camu6]

This may or may not be the bottom. But accumulation of a reasonable amount of moneroj below 0.002 seems to be near impossible these days. As soon as people realise this, they will be forced to  re-enter at current market prices bringing us upwards.

[mmortal03]

So I'm gonna take a position in Monero. 
 
I like it, and I think it will become the new "litecoin". 
 
If you whales could not dump on me, and if this could actually be the bottom, that would be super-kewl.  kthx. 

are you the r/bitcoin legend?

good to have you on board anyway

Yeah, it'd be cool to have the r/bitcoin americanpegasus on board if this is him.

[smooth]

This may or may not be the bottom. But accumulation of a reasonable amount of moneroj below 0.002 seems to be near impossible these days. As soon as people realise this, they will be forced to  re-enter at current market prices bringing us upwards.

Agree. The recent brief move up to 0.0024 was on very little volume. There are not a lot of coins available to buy near the market right now.

[americanpegasus]

So I'm gonna take a position in Monero.  
  
I like it, and I think it will become the new "litecoin".  
  
If you whales could not dump on me, and if this could actually be the bottom, that would be super-kewl.  kthx.  

are you the r/bitcoin legend?

good to have you on board anyway

Yeah, it'd be cool to have the r/bitcoin americanpegasus on board if this is him.

Yeah, it's me.  Check www.reddit.com/r/americanpegasus for proof.  
  
I just moved 25% of my bitcoin holdings into Monero.  So don't get excited about today's little jump; that's was mainly me, not dollar-cost-averaging and just buying all at once.  I'll ride the ride for at least 12 months or so (likely much longer), so I'm not too worried about entry price.
  
The name is still really silly (and you won't change my mind on that), but the technology and passion of the devs can't be matched.  I'm a believer.  
  
Now, have we reached $1 parity yet?  Did I miss that party?  I can honestly see XMR hitting $50 during the next crypto-bubble (which should be developing over the coming 24 to 36 months).

[GingerAle]

So I'm gonna take a position in Monero.  
  
I like it, and I think it will become the new "litecoin".  
  
If you whales could not dump on me, and if this could actually be the bottom, that would be super-kewl.  kthx.  

are you the r/bitcoin legend?

good to have you on board anyway

Yeah, it'd be cool to have the r/bitcoin americanpegasus on board if this is him.

Yeah, it's me.  Check www.reddit.com/r/americanpegasus for proof.  
  
I just moved 25% of my bitcoin holdings into Monero.  So don't get excited about today's little jump; that's was mainly me, not dollar-cost-averaging and just buying all at once.  I'll ride the ride for at least 12 months or so (likely much longer), so I'm not too worried about entry price.
  
The name is still really silly (and you won't change my mind on that), but the technology and passion of the devs can't be matched.  I'm a believer.  
  
Now, have we reached $1 parity yet?  Did I miss that party?  I can honestly see XMR hitting $50 during the next crypto-bubble (which should be developing over the coming 24 to 36 months).

there was a brief flirt with 1$ parity, but it didn't hold.

welcome to the party. Hang on to your butt - its bumpy!

[Johnny Mnemonic]

So I'm gonna take a position in Monero.  
  
I like it, and I think it will become the new "litecoin".  
  
If you whales could not dump on me, and if this could actually be the bottom, that would be super-kewl.  kthx.  

are you the r/bitcoin legend?

good to have you on board anyway

Yeah, it'd be cool to have the r/bitcoin americanpegasus on board if this is him.

Yeah, it's me.  Check www.reddit.com/r/americanpegasus for proof.  
  
I just moved 25% of my bitcoin holdings into Monero.  So don't get excited about today's little jump; that's was mainly me, not dollar-cost-averaging and just buying all at once.  I'll ride the ride for at least 12 months or so (likely much longer), so I'm not too worried about entry price.
  
The name is still really silly (and you won't change my mind on that), but the technology and passion of the devs can't be matched.  I'm a believer.  
  
Now, have we reached $1 parity yet?  Did I miss that party?  I can honestly see XMR hitting $50 during the next crypto-bubble (which should be developing over the coming 24 to 36 months).

Just curious: what about the name is silly to you? What are examples of names of money that you like?

As for price, XMR was as high as $5 last summer.