[XMR] Monero Speculation

[binaryFate]

Bitcoin fungibility is already attacked significantly. Yet that is probably nothing compared to one or two years from now.

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[mmortal03]

And Monero falls even further, what is going on?

People losing faith in monero. There is already no official GUI since over a year now

An official GUI is not necessary. All we need is the database fix, and the third-party GUIs will do just fine.

[GingerAle]

And Monero falls even further, what is going on?

People losing faith in monero. There is already no official GUI since over a year now

An official GUI is not necessary. All we need is the database fix, and the third-party GUIs will do just fine.

database fix is here. Its happening. So...... ??

[nioc]

And Monero falls even further, what is going on?

People losing faith in monero. There is already no official GUI since over a year now

An official GUI is not necessary. All we need is the database fix, and the third-party GUIs will do just fine.

database fix is here. Its happening. So...... ??/

Not for idiots like me.   Thanks for your effort but I have had no time to try your Windows DB fix.

I can still use Monero

I bought a nibble today as I have been at every drop since 300.

I still haven't figured out how to sell it. 

[dEBRUYNE]

And Monero falls even further, what is going on?

People losing faith in monero. There is already no official GUI since over a year now

An official GUI is not necessary. All we need is the database fix, and the third-party GUIs will do just fine.

database fix is here. Its happening. So...... ??

What he probably meant is a release version which includes the Database (so 0.8.8.7).

[mmortal03]

What he probably meant is a release version which includes the Database (so 0.8.8.7).

Precisely.

[Lloydimiller4]

And Monero falls even further, what is going on?

People losing faith in monero. There is already no official GUI since over a year now

mrkavasaki, you and Truecryptonaire are my two least favorite Monero 'supporters'. You both never post anything constructive or informative. It is obvious as hell that Truecryptonaire is trying to manipulate the price, and I'm pretty sure you are trying to do the same.

Back to price speculation- I'm betting that we have a large upswing soon, won't take much to set it off. Soon could be this week, or in another 2-4. My bet is on the next missive and 0.8.8.7 coming out. On Polo, the sell-side has been pretty steady with 275k on it, and the buy side has been steadily falling in fair sized increments each week.

And Monero falls even further, what is going on?

Well, if we use my last digest #'s from 3/25, there were 6.8 million monero available.

Now, there are 7.4 million monero available. So thats about 600k new monero.
If you do a rough calculation based on the data of the last spike, its roughly 500k monero. So lets use 500k monero.

The price at the last spike was 0.0041 according to coinmarketcap.

So, if every coin emitted since that day were to be bought at that price, that would be 2050 BTC, and at $230 per BTC, thats $471,500

There just simply wasn't half a million dollars worth of demand out there. Why is there no demand? No idea. Probably because no one knows about Monero except those involved in these forums.

Is the lack of a GUI a real reason? Perhaps, perhaps not. I don't think so. Indeed, I was thinking about it this morning and realized - if you're a person who needs to protect their financial movements (some of the use cases we've been talking about, where you send money overseas and you don't want your relatives neighbors knowing about it because kidnapping or theft or something), you can probably hire someone to do this, and you probably already have. It's probably not a far fetch to think that you could hire someone with knowledge of cryptocurrencies to perform this function for you (and you probably will, because your rich, and aint nobody got time for that). And that person with knowledge of cryptocurrencies can probably navigate the CLI.

Gingeropolous I believe is correct that this steady drop is mostly attributed to the emission not being absorbed. I've been seeing some new faces posting, but not enough to hold through the miners selling. I disagree about his take on the GUI though  . I think this recent downturn has been made worse by some traders. Not going to say that trading the coin is good or bad, it is inevitable, but anyone should be able to tell that a few are trying very hard to influence the price, and even fewer are successfully moving the price.

I'm still buying a bit here and there. I have gotten two new friends interested in Monero, and a friend who already has some is picking up more. As always I am very bullish with Monero and I believe that 2015 will bring some very good days.

[smooth]

Soon could be this week, or in another 2-4. My bet is on the next missive and 0.8.8.7 coming out. On Polo, the sell-side has been pretty steady with 275k on it, and the buy side has been steadily falling in fair sized increments each week.

New missive is definitely coming. I don't know when I don't know what's in it. 0.8.8.7 is some ways off. If you follow the test reports in various places including #monero-dev you still see people with unexplained crashes, the revised import/export tools haven't been merged, and there are still performance issues. On top of which we've already said there will be least one release candidate build for further testing before the actual release.

Things continue to move forward, more and more people are having success with the experimental database code, but unrealistic expectations of the new release being right around the corner are not a good idea.

[Lloydimiller4]

Soon could be this week, or in another 2-4. My bet is on the next missive and 0.8.8.7 coming out. On Polo, the sell-side has been pretty steady with 275k on it, and the buy side has been steadily falling in fair sized increments each week.

New missive is definitely coming. I don't know when I don't know what's in it. 0.8.8.7 is some ways off. If you follow the test reports in various places including #monero-dev you still see people with unexplained crashes, the revised import/export tools haven't been merged, and there are still performance issues. On top of which we've already said there will be least one release candidate build for further testing before the actual release.

Things continue to move forward, more and more people are having success with the experimental database code, but unrealistic expectations of the new release being right around the corner are not a good idea.

Good to know. We may have to endure a longer slump yet. I should start paying attention to #monero-dev more, thanks for the update.

[Arux]

mini wall (15btc) was eaten at 199k.
End of short position or new comer ? (i bet for the first)

[Anon136]

was not expecting to see green shoots when clicking on my bookmark to bitcoin wisdom this morning. thats a pleasant surprise.

[nioc]

was not expecting to see green shoots when clicking on my bookmark to bitcoin wisdom this morning. thats a pleasant surprise.

one more green spike since your post and just after my nibble for today

[SkyValeey]

12h bullish divergence. I'd say Monero at .0019-20 is very good buy for short/medium.

[elrippo]

12h bullish divergence. I'd say Monero at .0019-20 is very good buy for short/medium.

I believe it is also good for the long run 

[dEBRUYNE]

For anyone trading with bitcoinwisdom, it isn't showing the asks properly:

I don't know what is causing it, but bitcoinwisdom isn't properly showing the asks of the XMR/BTC market on poloniex.

Example:



&



Screens were taken a few seconds from eachother. I hope you can look into this, since it's a bit misleading for traders who are watching/using bitcoinwisdom.

[ArticMine]

12h bullish divergence. I'd say Monero at .0019-20 is very good buy for short/medium.

There are MACD bullish divergences regarding the recent 0.00189 low in all the charts between 1 day and 1 hour.

[SkyValeey]

Yeah, nice catch. My post was about RSI div.

[tyz]

I am wondering if technical analysis is really working for Monero and crypto coins in common. Actually, trading with technical signals are only working because there are many people which follow such rules. Are there so much people trading cryptos that this could work? 

12h bullish divergence. I'd say Monero at .0019-20 is very good buy for short/medium.

There are MACD bullish divergences regarding the recent 0.00189 low in all the charts between 1 day and 1 hour.

[rangedriver]

I am wondering if technical analysis is really working for Monero and crypto coins in common. Actually, trading with technical signals are only working because there are many people which follow such rules. Are there so much people trading cryptos that this could work?  

12h bullish divergence. I'd say Monero at .0019-20 is very good buy for short/medium.

There are MACD bullish divergences regarding the recent 0.00189 low in all the charts between 1 day and 1 hour.

Pretty much all technical analysis is a kind of financial astrology, even in the Forex. So yea, when it works it does so because people are expecting it to work, they trade accordingly, and thus it becomes self fulfilling.

BTC has shown demonstrable genesis for TA, but altcoins not so much. With something like XMR, the trading base is currently far too small for any attempt at TA to be credible. It's mainly used as a propaganda tool, if anything.

[Siexpert]

I am wondering if technical analysis is really working for Monero and crypto coins in common. Actually, trading with technical signals are only working because there are many people which follow such rules. Are there so much people trading cryptos that this could work?  

12h bullish divergence. I'd say Monero at .0019-20 is very good buy for short/medium.

There are MACD bullish divergences regarding the recent 0.00189 low in all the charts between 1 day and 1 hour.

Pretty much all technical analysis is a kind of financial astrology, even in the Forex. So yea, when it works it does so because people are expecting it to work, they trade accordingly, and thus it becomes self fulfilling.

BTC has shown demonstrable genesis for TA, but altcoins not so much. With something like XMR, the trading base is currently far too small for any attempt at TA to be credible. It's mainly used as a propaganda tool, if anything.

Technical will never have a 100% accuracy, but now is a strong (I'd say 70-80%) chance for an uptrend at least to retest the resistance at 0.0028 for the following 3 reasons:
-the RSI was lower recently than it was at the 0.0009 price level
-RSI divergence
-the resistance at 0.0019, which now acts as support

Here is a nice 12 hour chart:
http://i62.tinypic.com/2w3vme8.png


(Since this is a speculation thread, don't blame be for any losses, also never invest more than you can afford to lose, consult your financial advisor, etc  )