[XMR] Monero Speculation

[elrippo]

Margin call, bitch. 
 
First rule of Monero Club: Don't short Monero club.

Yeah. Please guys, don't be such idiots. I say this once, and you will be an idiot (at most) once, ok?  

Without a working anonymous exchange i feel really bad regarding the short/middle term. Not gonna buy back without an anonymous exchange with at least some volume.

As I tried to explain a few weeks ago, Monero's scenario universe is such that it either fails comparably soon, or reaches a high value somewhat later.

How does the (so far not experienced, rather completely theorized) reduction in trading volume affect the scenarios?

It does not affect the magnitude of the upside to a quantifiable extent (it is too far in the future to be affected).
It does not affect the probability of total failure to a quantifiable extent (total failure is either technological or community-induced and not correlated).
It may increase of decrease the price of the coin in the short term (hard to say which one: my knee-jerk reaction was to buy XMR as long as I conveniently can, but apparently the economic majority last night wanted BTC instead).

I am buying in month by month, get me a cup of tea and wait until next year spring and then nip on my cup of tea with some valuable Moneros -> aka long term holder (some tiny extend of Moneros, but Moneros)  

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[elrippo]

We need a Decentralized exchange !

Bittrex.com Poloniex.com cryptsy.com(maybe) -> that is in technical means decentralized 

[farfiman]

....
It may increase of decrease the price of the coin in the short term (hard to say which one: my knee-jerk reaction was to buy XMR as long as I conveniently can, but apparently the economic majority last night wanted BTC instead).

I don't think they wanted BTC - they wanted out of polo. Probably the don't have or don't want to deal with xmr wallets so they had no choice.

[Siexpert]

A lot of altcoins are increasing in value (are pumped?) these days, see peercoin or blackcoin. Even litecoin might have a bull run in the not too distant future, given the fact that it looks like a double bottom is in at the 0.0058 level. It might be an end to the bear market on the altcoins, so better watch out with those Monero shorts 

[kurious]

Ref: Polo KYC, I just looked at verification and for up to $2000 equivalent/ day, for 'level 1' - all they want is a name and a country.

No verification of name required, no ID requested - so you could even give a false one, it seems.

With your email addy known already - you are effectively traceable to that extent by TPTB anyway.

For most people it's not that scary. 

Don't get me wrong, I am concerned about my privacy, but it's not passport and proof of addy until pretty serious amounts - probably way more than you should have on an exchange anyway.

[elrippo]

Ref: Polo KYC, I just looked at verification and for up to $2000 equivalent/ day, for 'level 1' - all they want is a name and a country.

No verification of name required, no ID requested - so you could even give a false one, it seems.

With your email addy known already - you are effectively traceable to that extent by TPTB anyway.

For most people it's not that scary. 

Don't get me wrong, I am concerned about my privacy, but it's not passport and proof of addy until pretty serious amounts - probably way more than you should have on an exchange anyway.

That´s when law steps in.....
In my personal opinion, anonymity of crypto was thrown away in favor of making money, busines with it 

[illodin]

....
It may increase of decrease the price of the coin in the short term (hard to say which one: my knee-jerk reaction was to buy XMR as long as I conveniently can, but apparently the economic majority last night wanted BTC instead).

I don't think they wanted BTC - they wanted out of polo. Probably the don't have or don't want to deal with xmr wallets so they had no choice.

If there was an official easy to use GUI wallet, < 4 GB blockchain, and database, the barrier of withdrawing XMR instead of BTC would've been a lot smaller.

[smooth]

Ref: Polo KYC, I just looked at verification and for up to $2000 equivalent/ day, for 'level 1' - all they want is a name and a country.

No verification of name required, no ID requested - so you could even give a false one, it seems.

With your email addy known already - you are effectively traceable to that extent by TPTB anyway.

For most people it's not that scary.  

Don't get me wrong, I am concerned about my privacy, but it's not passport and proof of addy until pretty serious amounts - probably way more than you should have on an exchange anyway.

One caution

Poloniex aims to reasonably identify each user by cross-checking user data against governmental watch lists such as OFAC, as well as 3rd party identity verification and authentication services. If a user or a user’s transaction is flagged as suspicious through our internal controls, Poloniex will require additional proof of identification from the user and has the right to not permit any trades, deposits, and/or withdrawals until additional and verifiable proof of identity is received and the Compliance Officer has approved the user for use of the Platform.

In other words, if you do business there you are at risk of having your coins held ransom for whatever "additional proof" they want, and also possibly the discretion of their Compliance Officer before giving them back.

[GTO911]

If there was an official easy to use GUI wallet, < 4 GB blockchain, and database, the barrier of withdrawing XMR instead of BTC would've been a lot smaller.

Mymonero is very easy to use

[mrkavasaki]

Thinking about to buy back in blackcoin instead of monero
Without an anonymous exchange, monero is a worthless crap

[pinky]

Ref: Polo KYC, I just looked at verification and for up to $2000 equivalent/ day, for 'level 1' - all they want is a name and a country.

This won't last long. It makes no sense to have this kind of limits.
I believe Poloniex knows they have to start KYC in order to be compliant and they are well aware what is/was their competitive advantage. We are watching "soft" transition and they hope they don't lose too much customers in the process.

[NeuroticFish]

There's MyMonero, there's MoneroX (where you can set remote daemon)... keeping big amounts of money on exchange is plain stupid and history already showed that a good couple of times.
A lot of exchanges were hacked, can you be so sure that Polo will not be the next in line?

[GTO911]

Thinking about to buy back in blackcoin instead of monero

Haha, i have no doubt you are just a counter troll, i am sure a lot of people will be happy you buy 'blackcoin'

[kurious]

Ref: Polo KYC, I just looked at verification and for up to $2000 equivalent/ day, for 'level 1' - all they want is a name and a country.

No verification of name required, no ID requested - so you could even give a false one, it seems.

With your email addy known already - you are effectively traceable to that extent by TPTB anyway.

For most people it's not that scary.  

Don't get me wrong, I am concerned about my privacy, but it's not passport and proof of addy until pretty serious amounts - probably way more than you should have on an exchange anyway.

One caution

Poloniex aims to reasonably identify each user by cross-checking user data against governmental watch lists such as OFAC, as well as 3rd party identity verification and authentication services. If a user or a user’s transaction is flagged as suspicious through our internal controls, Poloniex will require additional proof of identification from the user and has the right to not permit any trades, deposits, and/or withdrawals until additional and verifiable proof of identity is received and the Compliance Officer has approved the user for use of the Platform.

In other words, if you do business there you are at risk of having your coins held ransom for whatever "additional proof" they want, and also possibly the discretion of their Compliance Officer before giving them back.

Yes, Smooth - maybe it is naive, but really... with a 'legit' exchange, it's probably also naive to assume they can go on without KYC forever...

I don't like it, but Polo can't fight it, realistically.

If there was an official easy to use GUI wallet, < 4 GB blockchain, and database, the barrier of withdrawing XMR instead of BTC would've been a lot smaller.

I have to agree - I am a Mac user and I am not a coder, or even that savvy.   I think lack of GUI is a barrier to Monero adoption - it proves the strength of the coin it does well without it, sure - but it would make a big difference to the likes of me... and there are a lot more of me than there are crypto-sophisticates...

[illodin]

One caution

Poloniex aims to reasonably identify each user by cross-checking user data against governmental watch lists such as OFAC, as well as 3rd party identity verification and authentication services. If a user or a user’s transaction is flagged as suspicious through our internal controls, Poloniex will require additional proof of identification from the user and has the right to not permit any trades, deposits, and/or withdrawals until additional and verifiable proof of identity is received and the Compliance Officer has approved the user for use of the Platform.

In other words, if you do business there you are at risk of having your coins held ransom for whatever "additional proof" they want, and also possibly the discretion of their Compliance Officer before giving them back.

What does that mean for services like xmr.to and shapeshift.io, do they have the balls to continue operate?

[DaveyJones]

Why should the lack of GUI be the problem? Just WHY? Anyone of you thinks people new to bitcoin use the core gui? I think most of them non tech-savy people will use the likes of Electrum or Multibit

[cAPSLOCK]

I was unaware of increased withdrawal fees as of the 20th. I guess I'm going to withdraw all my Moneroj as I won't be selling any time soon.

This should be standard operating procedure.  Two words:  Mt. Gox.

Did you notice my "personal text" under my activity?  

Not sure what that is... but my comment was not meant as a criticism in any way... just a reminder and encouragement to us all.  Leaving crypto on exchanges is risky.  When we know were are not trading...  we should always be pulling it off.

[cAPSLOCK]

how do you short xmr? what is the process?

Borrow XMR and sell it.  You remain in debt to the lender.  Later, buy XMR and give the lender his XMR plus the interest.

[cAPSLOCK]

Everytime you get a pump the bears will short it to death. This revolution may not be cheap.

This is great news for the currency.  It smooths the swings in just the manner you say and creates liquidity.  Margin holders being forced to cover adds fuel to real rallies and falls.  

It's a good thing.

[rpietila]

Instead of dwelling in misery after the inevitability, how about thinking theoretically, how the private exchange can continue? What ways to arrange a functional marketplace are available?

- Decentralized exchange
- Decentralized and trustless blockchain exchange between cryptos
- Exchange in a freer jurisdiction
- Bulleting board with a thought-out trust/escrow system
- Market-making exchange (Silverbank)
- Decentralized network of individual market makers (Localbitcoins)
- Services that make markets on intermediary financial goods (gift cards, miles, credits in paypal)
- Using Crypto Kingdom social exchange platform to conduct trades (exchange moving inside a non-jurisdiction)

If I can think of 8 ways, surely you can add another 8 basic alternatives, and then the community needs to form a taskgroup to pursue the selected one(s) of them.