[XMR] Monero Speculation

[medusa13]

I think what he's saying is that Poloniex has been a great supporter of the Monero community. By implementing their policy change with an obnoxious and customer-hostile two-day notices (where people who happen not to be online every day are not forced to give up their information or have their coins stolen) they just told the Monero community go fuck ourselves. Without even so much as an explanation other than "Hey guys, good news, you can trade on margin and pay more commissions now!"

Compliance is perfectly fine, and to be expected. Giving your biggest customer base the finger with a two-day notice is not.

yes, thank you for saying what i could not formulate myself, especially the bold part.
i too have a verified bitstamp account and i am fine with it. however, implementing this kind of identification rules in such an unprofessional way just seems desperate and unpredictable. Monero community is very sensible with this kind of things, so i would have expected them to respect this and act accordingly transparent/fair

[americanpegasus]

Aaaaand the chart just devours another bear.  Gulp.  We are seeing heavy selling pressure and a resilient chart.  Any one else seeing what I am seeing?

Yeah, I like the 220s.  Polo frowns on market setting in the troll box, so I might as well do it here.  
  
I think that shorters and nervous nellies think the price will drop so they are building sell walls and hoping they can profit from the temporary weakness.  I watched two of these fake walls get annihilated earlier.  Someone put up 1000 XMR wall thinking it would force the price down, and GULP, it got ate.  So they put up another 1000 XMR sell wall, and GULP, it got ate too.   
  
Even longs are hoping we will see some cheap XMR nearer to the 200 mark.  
  
But I like the 220 floor and I like the strength we are seeing here. 
  
I think we should keep it, and then work upwards, scooping up the dips.  
  
My analysis was suggesting a price of about 320 by June 15th..  Now these latest developments may blunt that, unfortunately, but I think we don't enter new consolidation so soon.

[DaveyJones]

Aaaaand the chart just devours another bear.  Gulp.  We are seeing heavy selling pressure and a resilient chart.  Any one else seeing what I am seeing?

Yeah, I like the 220s.  Polo frowns on market setting in the troll box, so I might as well do it here.  
  
I think that shorters and nervous nellies think the price will drop so they are building sell walls and hoping they can profit from the temporary weakness.  I watched two of these fake walls get annihilated earlier.  Someone put up 1000 XMR wall thinking it would force the price down, and GULP, it got ate.  So they put up another 1000 XMR sell wall, and GULP, it got ate too.  
  
Even longs are hoping we will see some cheap XMR nearer to the 200 mark.  
  
But I like the 220 floor and I like the strength we are seeing here.  
  
I think we should keep it, and then work upwards, scooping up the dips.  
  
My analysis was suggesting a price of about 320 by June 15th..  Now these latest developments may blunt that, unfortunately, but I think we don't enter new consolidation so soon.

I would not mind cheap prices till my next pay cheque clears

[TrueCryptonaire]

Shorting Monero at Poloniex is now pretty affordable.
It might give some good opportunities if the price bottoms.

On the other hand, borrowing bitcoins to entering into long position is more expensive than opening a short position.
At some point this will trigger a wave of short positions as long as the interest rate gap between Monero and BTC becomes more or less the same.
That's how the free markets work.

[americanpegasus]

Shorting Monero at Poloniex is now pretty affordable.
It might give some good opportunities if the price bottoms.

On the other hand, borrowing bitcoins to entering into long position is more expensive than opening a short position.
At some point this will trigger a wave of short positions as long as the interest rate gap between Monero and BTC becomes more or less the same.
That's how the free markets work.

 
 
You were spouting the same nonsense into the troll box on Polo, encouraging others to short with you, so that you don't lose your pants.   
 
In truth the mild interest rate difference between margin money won't matter when people realize how foolish it is to short a volatile asset that is likely to increase in price by magnitudes over the coming 12 months. 
 
Even over there you were getting called out and made fun of. 
 
Did you experiment with the new XMR shorting feature, and now you're starting to worry? 
 
You were already warned multiple times, do not short Monero, or your account will eventually be margin called and you will lose everything. 
 
If you're going to be so stubborn after these repeated warnings, go ahead.  I don't like to make money by taking it from other traders; I would rather my asset organically increase in value. 
 
But if you are so determined to lose all your money, it might as well be to me. 
 
Sorry for your loss (in advance).

[rangedriver]

Shorting Monero at Poloniex is now pretty affordable.
It might give some good opportunities if the price bottoms.

On the other hand, borrowing bitcoins to entering into long position is more expensive than opening a short position.
At some point this will trigger a wave of short positions as long as the interest rate gap between Monero and BTC becomes more or less the same.
That's how the free markets work.

Haha - still trying to push the markets down then?

Good luck meeting your somewhat risible 0.0005 target.

[kazuki49]

Shorting Monero at Poloniex is now pretty affordable.
It might give some good opportunities if the price bottoms.

On the other hand, borrowing bitcoins to entering into long position is more expensive than opening a short position.
At some point this will trigger a wave of short positions as long as the interest rate gap between Monero and BTC becomes more or less the same.
That's how the free markets work.

Haha - still trying to push the markets down then?

Good luck meeting your somewhat risible 0.0005 target.

truth is, we need people like TrueCryptonaire, there is little merit in things that aren't tested, Monero need lots of tests.

[TrueCryptonaire]

Shorting Monero at Poloniex is now pretty affordable.
It might give some good opportunities if the price bottoms.

On the other hand, borrowing bitcoins to entering into long position is more expensive than opening a short position.
At some point this will trigger a wave of short positions as long as the interest rate gap between Monero and BTC becomes more or less the same.
That's how the free markets work.

Haha - still trying to push the markets down then?

Good luck meeting your somewhat risible 0.0005 target.

truth is, we need people like TrueCryptonaire, there is little merit in things that aren't tested, Monero need lots of tests.

Yup.
Shorting Monero is actually a good thing. At some point the shorts need to be closed and hopefully it has to be done at lower price than the entrance price.
The other factor that one need to take account into is the interest rate.
Seems not many people are willing to short so I am afraid that will change as things need to be stabilized. The long side is somewhat stronger as the rates are high there.

I am sure at some point people will see the opportunity at entering into short positions.
I hope for everybody not to be the last guy shorting.
I sold a significiant part of my Moneros above 0.003 over 1 month ago and still I have not bought because Monero feels it wants to go down.
The gravity is there.

Monero needs people like me who are able to buy back in at lower prices since the hope is not there when the price is at the very bottom. Still way too much optimism to make me entering.

[rangedriver]

Yup.
Shorting Monero is actually a good thing. At some point the shorts need to be closed and hopefully it has to be done at lower price than the entrance price.
The other factor that one need to take account into is the interest rate.
Seems not many people are willing to short so I am afraid that will change as things need to be stabilized. The long side is somewhat stronger as the rates are high there.

I am sure at some point people will see the opportunity at entering into short positions.
I hope for everybody not to be the last guy shorting.
I sold a significiant part of my Moneros above 0.003 over 1 month ago and still I have not bought because Monero feels it wants to go down.
The gravity is there.

Monero needs people like me who are able to buy back in at lower prices since the hope is not there when the price is at the very bottom. Still way too much optimism to make me entering.

Nothing in the above text can be trusted.

XMR might need testing, but newcomers also need protecting.

[cAPSLOCK]

Shorting Monero is actually a good thing. At some point the shorts need to be closed and hopefully it has to be done at lower price than the entrance price.

My hopefully is quite different than your hopefully.  Nothing personal but I hope you lose every single BTC in your margin account.

But to each their own?

[TrueCryptonaire]

Shorting Monero at Poloniex is now pretty affordable.
It might give some good opportunities if the price bottoms.

On the other hand, borrowing bitcoins to entering into long position is more expensive than opening a short position.
At some point this will trigger a wave of short positions as long as the interest rate gap between Monero and BTC becomes more or less the same.
That's how the free markets work.

Haha - still trying to push the markets down then?

Good luck meeting your somewhat risible 0.0005 target.

truth is, we need people like TrueCryptonaire, there is little merit in things that aren't tested, Monero need lots of tests.

Yup.
Shorting Monero is actually a good thing. At some point the shorts need to be closed and hopefully it has to be done at lower price than the entrance price.
The other factor that one need to take account into is the interest rate.
Seems not many people are willing to short so I am afraid that will change as things need to be stabilized. The long side is somewhat stronger as the rates are high there.

I am sure at some point people will see the opportunity at entering into short positions.
I hope for everybody not to be the last guy shorting.
I sold a significiant part of my Moneros above 0.003 over 1 month ago and still I have not bought because Monero feels it wants to go down.
The gravity is there.

Monero needs people like me who are able to buy back in at lower prices since the hope is not there when the price is at the very bottom. Still way too much optimism to make me entering.

Nothing in the above text can be trusted.

XMR might need testing, but newcomers also need protecting.

Everything is pretty new here.
However in economics it is a general and well-known principle that everything tends to go to the equilibrium.
The equilibrium can be divided into two categories: 1) Stable 2) Dynamic equilibrium

If Crypto works at least a little bit like free markets it should try to go to the equilibrium where all the parameters should be more or less equal...
The relative high inflation of XMR compared to BTC suggests that XMR should have higher interest rate to compensate the inflation, otherwise investors are better off by dumping their Moneros and lending btc and the rate of btc drops and the rate of Monero goes up.

[americanpegasus]

Shorting Monero at Poloniex is now pretty affordable.
It might give some good opportunities if the price bottoms.

On the other hand, borrowing bitcoins to entering into long position is more expensive than opening a short position.
At some point this will trigger a wave of short positions as long as the interest rate gap between Monero and BTC becomes more or less the same.
That's how the free markets work.

Haha - still trying to push the markets down then?

Good luck meeting your somewhat risible 0.0005 target.

truth is, we need people like TrueCryptonaire, there is little merit in things that aren't tested, Monero need lots of tests.

Yup.
Shorting Monero is actually a good thing. At some point the shorts need to be closed and hopefully it has to be done at lower price than the entrance price.
The other factor that one need to take account into is the interest rate.
Seems not many people are willing to short so I am afraid that will change as things need to be stabilized. The long side is somewhat stronger as the rates are high there.

I am sure at some point people will see the opportunity at entering into short positions.
I hope for everybody not to be the last guy shorting.
I sold a significiant part of my Moneros above 0.003 over 1 month ago and still I have not bought because Monero feels it wants to go down.
The gravity is there.

Monero needs people like me who are able to buy back in at lower prices since the hope is not there when the price is at the very bottom. Still way too much optimism to make me entering.

 
  
Ask yourself why people aren't willing to short Monero right now.  
  
Your argument boils down to "No one is stupid enough to short Monero right now, because that would be an obviously bad move, so everyone better short Monero."  
  
Your logic makes sense in a large and relatively stable asset like Apple stock, but even then shorting volatile and promising tech companies is a fools game.  
  
Shorting a tiny crypto, who has the best long term future of any crypto (besides bitcoin)?  Are you mad?  
  
Do you realize how stupid you sound?   Imagine in 2011 when bitcoin was hovering under $1 if you had given the same advice: "everyone should short because it's inevitable."  
  
You would lose your shirt and shit quick.  Monero isn't some sideways trading shit coin.  It's trajectory is exponential, and the moves upward won't always be predictable.  They will come violent and quick, far faster than you can exit your shorts.  
  
Your account will be liquidated faster than you can react.  
  
For you pros out there, you already know how stupid this guy's advice is.  For you rookies out there (and I know some of you read this too), please don't listen to this guy.  He is giving some of the worst advice I've heard.  
  
If you think Monero is in a downtrend and you don't want to acquire it right now, fine.  But no one can predict the moves in such a small and volatile (and upward bound) asset.  
  

[Lloydimiller4]

still feel dull, took me some times to process the somehow bad news. atm i really dont know how it will play out in the future, some people definitiley left polo. maybe they will return if it stays the only liquid market, but for now i dont think so. even if this has nothing to do directly with xmr at all, yesterday was one of those rare nights i turned my node off after all my transfers finished.

i was very bullish the past few weeks, but now my sentiment somehow turned due to this. i feel cheated by poloniex. not becasue they implemented those rules, but becasue of how fast they did it and how they communicated it. the capital flight out of polo was sure enormous and is not yet finished it seems. people clearly prefer btc to withdrawl. maybe the people joining becasue of margin trading will compensate it, maybe not.

and no, i am not a botnet owner.

I don't know why this impacted your decision to turn off your node?

Polo is a U.S. exchange, they need to comply with U.S. law. It sucks that it happened so quickly, but I'd rather there be an exchange than none at all. I believe decentralized exchanges are coming, and when they do so people will be able to trade freely and anonymously.

Poloniex changing their rules certainly makes our short term direction cloudy, but if you check, there are a lot less sells than buys.

I think what he's saying is that Poloniex has been a great supporter of the Monero community. By implementing their policy change with an obnoxious and customer-hostile two-day notices (where people who happen not to be online every day are not forced to give up their information or have their coins stolen) they just told the Monero community go fuck ourselves. Without even so much as an explanation other than "Hey guys, good news, you can trade on margin and pay more commissions now!"

Compliance is perfectly fine, and to be expected. Giving your biggest customer base the finger with a two-day notice is not.

And I told them that when they contacted me to try to smooth things over.

Fuck you Poloniex. You screwed up here.

You are right that they are cocksuckers due to the timeline they gave, but asides from that I don't think the direction they are going is bad. They aren't asking for much info for level 1 verification, data that could be easily fabricated. I agree that they messed up and that the two-days deadline was a really big 'fuck you' to their customers.

Shorting Monero at Poloniex is now pretty affordable.
It might give some good opportunities if the price bottoms.

On the other hand, borrowing bitcoins to entering into long position is more expensive than opening a short position.
At some point this will trigger a wave of short positions as long as the interest rate gap between Monero and BTC becomes more or less the same.
That's how the free markets work.

 
  
You were spouting the same nonsense into the troll box on Polo, encouraging others to short with you, so that you don't lose your pants.  
  
In truth the mild interest rate difference between margin money won't matter when people realize how foolish it is to short a volatile asset that is likely to increase in price by magnitudes over the coming 12 months.  
  
Even over there you were getting called out and made fun of.  
  
Did you experiment with the new XMR shorting feature, and now you're starting to worry?  
  
You were already warned multiple times, do not short Monero, or your account will eventually be margin called and you will lose everything.  
  
If you're going to be so stubborn after these repeated warnings, go ahead.  I don't like to make money by taking it from other traders; I would rather my asset organically increase in value.  
  
But if you are so determined to lose all your money, it might as well be to me.  
  
Sorry for your loss (in advance).

Don't listen to anything Truecryptonaire has to say when it comes to trading. He purposely tries to mislead newcomers to lose their money so that he can take it from them. He is a scumbag.

-edited for clarity on which scumbag-

[americanpegasus]

Llyodimiller4, I'm assuming that was directed at cryptoriches.  (edit: lol, I see your edit)  
  
There is zero mathematical or financial way you can justify taking a short position in Monero, and I'm only so adamant about this because a lot of people are going to lose money in the coming years over this, and I want to have a clean conscience about it.  
  
Anyway, let them put on their big boy pants.  Margin trading is very dangerous, and major exchanges don't just let any random get 2.5x leverage on their collateral.  There is an approval process, and I'm a little concerned that Poloniex is apparently letting every account margin like crazy right out of the gate.

[TrueCryptonaire]

Shorting Monero at Poloniex is now pretty affordable.
It might give some good opportunities if the price bottoms.

On the other hand, borrowing bitcoins to entering into long position is more expensive than opening a short position.
At some point this will trigger a wave of short positions as long as the interest rate gap between Monero and BTC becomes more or less the same.
That's how the free markets work.

Haha - still trying to push the markets down then?

Good luck meeting your somewhat risible 0.0005 target.

truth is, we need people like TrueCryptonaire, there is little merit in things that aren't tested, Monero need lots of tests.

Yup.
Shorting Monero is actually a good thing. At some point the shorts need to be closed and hopefully it has to be done at lower price than the entrance price.
The other factor that one need to take account into is the interest rate.
Seems not many people are willing to short so I am afraid that will change as things need to be stabilized. The long side is somewhat stronger as the rates are high there.

I am sure at some point people will see the opportunity at entering into short positions.
I hope for everybody not to be the last guy shorting.
I sold a significiant part of my Moneros above 0.003 over 1 month ago and still I have not bought because Monero feels it wants to go down.
The gravity is there.

Monero needs people like me who are able to buy back in at lower prices since the hope is not there when the price is at the very bottom. Still way too much optimism to make me entering.

 
  
Ask yourself why people aren't willing to short Monero right now.  
  
Your argument boils down to "No one is stupid enough to short Monero right now, because that would be an obviously bad move, so everyone better short Monero."  
  
Your logic makes sense in a large and relatively stable asset like Apple stock, but even then shorting volatile and promising tech companies is a fools game.  
  
Shorting a tiny crypto, who has the best long term future of any crypto (besides bitcoin)?  Are you mad?  
  
Do you realize how stupid you sound?   Imagine in 2011 when bitcoin was hovering under $1 if you had given the same advice: "everyone should short because it's inevitable."  
  
You would lose your shirt and shit quick.  Monero isn't some sideways trading shit coin.  It's trajectory is exponential, and the moves upward won't always be predictable.  They will come violent and quick, far faster than you can exit your shorts.  
  
Your account will be liquidated faster than you can react.  
  
For you pros out there, you already know how stupid this guy's advice is.  For you rookies out there (and I know some of you read this too), please don't listen to this guy.  He is giving some of the worst advice I've heard.  
  
If you think Monero is in a downtrend and you don't want to acquire it right now, fine.  But no one can predict the moves in such a small and volatile (and upward bound) asset.  
  

I am not trying to predict but I see the Golden opportunity to be better shorting than longing.
I do not want to repeat myself.
When the rates are dirt low it means the rates must go up especially if the relative inflation (inflation of xmr vs. inflation of btc) is not in favor of XMR, it is rational thing to get actually higher rate from lending XMR than BTC.

I am not saying "it will go there". If I were saying you can call me stupid, but I am saying rather: it might go or odds are or probably it will go down.

The fact that it is forming bearish triangle now looks pretty bearish to me (from the charts of the current year). The all time chart looks actually far more scarier.
If I had to base my decision to invest into XMR on charts, I would stay away - with distance.
Fundamentals I am not sure.... Perhaps there are some hope for the long term investors to regain their money back? I certainly hope so....

[TrueCryptonaire]

Llyodimiller4, I'm assuming that was directed at cryptoriches.  (edit: lol, I see your edit)  
  
There is zero mathematical or financial way you can justify taking a short position in Monero, and I'm only so adamant about this because a lot of people are going to lose money in the coming years over this, and I want to have a clean conscience about it.  
  
Anyway, let them put on their big boy pants.  Margin trading is very dangerous, and major exchanges don't just let any random get 2.5x leverage on their collateral.  There is an approval process, and I'm a little concerned that Poloniex is apparently letting every account margin like crazy right out of the gate.

How many times I have to tell you the economic reasons why one might be interested in shorting?
Read my previous posts and wise up.

[ArticMine]

Shorting Monero at Poloniex is now pretty affordable.
It might give some good opportunities if the price bottoms.

On the other hand, borrowing bitcoins to entering into long position is more expensive than opening a short position.
At some point this will trigger a wave of short positions as long as the interest rate gap between Monero and BTC becomes more or less the same.
That's how the free markets work.

Haha - still trying to push the markets down then?

Good luck meeting your somewhat risible 0.0005 target.

truth is, we need people like TrueCryptonaire, there is little merit in things that aren't tested, Monero need lots of tests.

Yup.
Shorting Monero is actually a good thing. At some point the shorts need to be closed and hopefully it has to be done at lower price than the entrance price.
The other factor that one need to take account into is the interest rate.
Seems not many people are willing to short so I am afraid that will change as things need to be stabilized. The long side is somewhat stronger as the rates are high there.

I am sure at some point people will see the opportunity at entering into short positions.
I hope for everybody not to be the last guy shorting.
I sold a significiant part of my Moneros above 0.003 over 1 month ago and still I have not bought because Monero feels it wants to go down.
The gravity is there.

Monero needs people like me who are able to buy back in at lower prices since the hope is not there when the price is at the very bottom. Still way too much optimism to make me entering.

 
  
Ask yourself why people aren't willing to short Monero right now.  
  
Your argument boils down to "No one is stupid enough to short Monero right now, because that would be an obviously bad move, so everyone better short Monero."  
  
Your logic makes sense in a large and relatively stable asset like Apple stock, but even then shorting volatile and promising tech companies is a fools game.  
  
Shorting a tiny crypto, who has the best long term future of any crypto (besides bitcoin)?  Are you mad?  
  
Do you realize how stupid you sound?   Imagine in 2011 when bitcoin was hovering under $1 if you had given the same advice: "everyone should short because it's inevitable."  
  
You would lose your shirt and shit quick.  Monero isn't some sideways trading shit coin.  It's trajectory is exponential, and the moves upward won't always be predictable.  They will come violent and quick, far faster than you can exit your shorts.  
  
Your account will be liquidated faster than you can react.  
  
For you pros out there, you already know how stupid this guy's advice is.  For you rookies out there (and I know some of you read this too), please don't listen to this guy.  He is giving some of the worst advice I've heard.  
  
If you think Monero is in a downtrend and you don't want to acquire it right now, fine.  But no one can predict the moves in such a small and volatile (and upward bound) asset.  
  

pirateat40 built up a massive Bitcoin short position in late 2011 early 2012. It did not end well. In spite of the advice above, I would not be surprised if someone goes for a big Monero short.

[americanpegasus]

However, I am afraid this is just the beginning of the exodus from Monero to Bitcoin and along the way back to fiat money.

 
  
Confirmed that TrueCryptonaire is a FUD-spreading troll, either a hired goon or trolling for profit. A cursory glance at his posting history will show you everything you need to know about him.  If you listen to his advice, you will lose your money.  
  
It's best not to acknowledge his idiocy anymore.

[rangedriver]

However, I am afraid this is just the beginning of the exodus from Monero to Bitcoin and along the way back to fiat money.

 
  
Confirmed that TrueCryptonaire is a FUD-spreading troll, either a hired goon or trolling for profit. A cursory glance at his posting history will show you everything you need to know about him.  If you listen to his advice, you will lose your money.  
  
It's best not to acknowledge his idiocy anymore.

There are many hired goons and trolls in the XMR space - usually either originating from Bytecoin or Darkcoin.

In the case of TrueCryptonaire - make no mistake - he knows full well the long-term prospects for XMR which is exactly the reason he's trying to get the price lower.

When he's operating on the right side of team he's often a useful asset. At other times, such as now, more of an ass.

In any case, he's gambling that his BTC warchest for shorting is more than those that are in counterpoint... which is a very, very dangerous gamble for him.

[rangedriver]

In other news, here is a very well written alternative perspective on the recent Poloniex developments and its impact on the cryptospace:-

http://coinarb.tumblr.com/post/119399539544/some-thoughts-on-poloniex