[XMR] Monero Speculation

[smooth]

Also, I know Monero has adaptive block size. I was commenting that Monero still needs to hard fork to implement permanent inflation rewards, and that maybe MP will be bellyache/troll similar to how he has over increasing bitcoin block size. It's kind of a scarcity issue along the same lines I think.

Interestingly enough here's your answer: http://log.bitcoin-assets.com/?date=27-05-2015#1146160

Worth quoting because I agree with his monetary view. However, I think he is wrong with respect to a proof-of-work cryptocurrency which is not only a financial system but also a device that has the function in a certain way including mining incentives. For the later, a positive rate of inflation is superior.

fixed inflation is not fundamentally different from zero inflation just as long as the inflation is known

[TrueCryptonaire]

Also, I know Monero has adaptive block size. I was commenting that Monero still needs to hard fork to implement permanent inflation rewards, and that maybe MP will be bellyache/troll similar to how he has over increasing bitcoin block size. It's kind of a scarcity issue along the same lines I think.

Interestingly enough here's your answer: http://log.bitcoin-assets.com/?date=27-05-2015#1146160

Worth quoting because I agree with his monetary view. However, I think he is wrong with respect to a proof-of-work cryptocurrency which is not only a financial system but also a device that has the function in a certain way including mining incentives. For the later, a positive rate of inflation is superior.

fixed inflation is not fundamentally different from zero inflation just as long as the inflation is known

Fiat money has more or less fixed inflation which is done by the European Central Bank inflation targetting.
If there is an inflation rate, it really doesn't differ from fiat money (unless you do not consider a distribution mechanism which is different in crypto and the modern type of fiat money which is created in two ways: 1) by central bank the initial money supply 2) Commercial banks by credit expansion - the latter being more significiant factor).

[obit33]

Also, I know Monero has adaptive block size. I was commenting that Monero still needs to hard fork to implement permanent inflation rewards, and that maybe MP will be bellyache/troll similar to how he has over increasing bitcoin block size. It's kind of a scarcity issue along the same lines I think.

Interestingly enough here's your answer: http://log.bitcoin-assets.com/?date=27-05-2015#1146160

Worth quoting because I agree with his monetary view. However, I think he is wrong with respect to a proof-of-work cryptocurrency which is not only a financial system but also a device that has the function in a certain way including mining incentives. For the later, a positive rate of inflation is superior.

fixed inflation is not fundamentally different from zero inflation just as long as the inflation is known

Fiat money has more or less fixed inflation which is done by the European Central Bank inflation targetting.
If there is an inflation rate, it really doesn't differ from fiat money (unless you do not consider a distribution mechanism which is different in crypto and the modern type of fiat money which is created in two ways: 1) by central bank the initial money supply 2) Commercial banks by credit expansion - the latter being more significiant factor).

hmmz,
I thought inflation = expanding the money supply, whatever the inflation-target is, whatever the actual rise in prices is... fiat-money has no fixed inflation, central banks can print at will as per Ben Bernanke, Mario Draghi, Kuroda, etc... Fixed inflation (as is with btc, monero... as is with gold and silver) differs a whole lot from being able to print whatever amount of currency...

fractional reserve banking with fixed-inflation-money will fail when there's a too big a bank run (the money can't be printed at will), FRB in a fiat-currency-system doesn't need to fail, the central banks can print at will...

best regards

[kazuki49]

Also, I know Monero has adaptive block size. I was commenting that Monero still needs to hard fork to implement permanent inflation rewards, and that maybe MP will be bellyache/troll similar to how he has over increasing bitcoin block size. It's kind of a scarcity issue along the same lines I think.

Interestingly enough here's your answer: http://log.bitcoin-assets.com/?date=27-05-2015#1146160

Worth quoting because I agree with his monetary view. However, I think he is wrong with respect to a proof-of-work cryptocurrency which is not only a financial system but also a device that has the function in a certain way including mining incentives. For the later, a positive rate of inflation is superior.

fixed inflation is not fundamentally different from zero inflation just as long as the inflation is known

Fiat money has more or less fixed inflation which is done by the European Central Bank inflation targetting.
If there is an inflation rate, it really doesn't differ from fiat money (unless you do not consider a distribution mechanism which is different in crypto and the modern type of fiat money which is created in two ways: 1) by central bank the initial money supply 2) Commercial banks by credit expansion - the latter being more significiant factor).

hmmz,
I thought inflation = expanding the money supply, whatever the inflation-target is, whatever the actual rise in prices is... fiat-money has no fixed inflation, central banks can print at will as per Ben Bernanke, Mario Draghi, Kuroda, etc... Fixed inflation (as is with btc, monero... as is with gold and silver) differs a whole lot from being able to print whatever amount of currency...

fractional reserve banking with fixed-inflation-money will fail when there's a too big a bank run (the money can't be printed at will), FRB in a fiat-currency-system doesn't need to fail, the central banks can print at will...

best regards

Monero hasn't "fixed inflation" neither, the correct economic term is http://www.investopedia.com/terms/d/disinflation.asp

[obit33]

Also, I know Monero has adaptive block size. I was commenting that Monero still needs to hard fork to implement permanent inflation rewards, and that maybe MP will be bellyache/troll similar to how he has over increasing bitcoin block size. It's kind of a scarcity issue along the same lines I think.

Interestingly enough here's your answer: http://log.bitcoin-assets.com/?date=27-05-2015#1146160

Worth quoting because I agree with his monetary view. However, I think he is wrong with respect to a proof-of-work cryptocurrency which is not only a financial system but also a device that has the function in a certain way including mining incentives. For the later, a positive rate of inflation is superior.

fixed inflation is not fundamentally different from zero inflation just as long as the inflation is known

Fiat money has more or less fixed inflation which is done by the European Central Bank inflation targetting.
If there is an inflation rate, it really doesn't differ from fiat money (unless you do not consider a distribution mechanism which is different in crypto and the modern type of fiat money which is created in two ways: 1) by central bank the initial money supply 2) Commercial banks by credit expansion - the latter being more significiant factor).

hmmz,
I thought inflation = expanding the money supply, whatever the inflation-target is, whatever the actual rise in prices is... fiat-money has no fixed inflation, central banks can print at will as per Ben Bernanke, Mario Draghi, Kuroda, etc... Fixed inflation (as is with btc, monero... as is with gold and silver) differs a whole lot from being able to print whatever amount of currency...

fractional reserve banking with fixed-inflation-money will fail when there's a too big a bank run (the money can't be printed at will), FRB in a fiat-currency-system doesn't need to fail, the central banks can print at will...

best regards

Monero hasn't "fixed inflation" neither, the correct economic term is http://www.investopedia.com/terms/d/disinflation.asp

Not sure, that's where the bankers try to confuse us i guess...

what is your definition of inflation? Is it rising prices as the effect of an expanding money-supply, or is it just an expanding money-supply, wether some prices are rising or not?

As I understand: disinflation is a slowing rate of rising prices... it's not a slowing rate in expanding the money supply... so monero doesn't have disinflation, monero has a fixed inflation rate (as in can't be adjusted at will).

interesting discussion, but maybe off topic over here...

[smooth]

Also, I know Monero has adaptive block size. I was commenting that Monero still needs to hard fork to implement permanent inflation rewards, and that maybe MP will be bellyache/troll similar to how he has over increasing bitcoin block size. It's kind of a scarcity issue along the same lines I think.

Interestingly enough here's your answer: http://log.bitcoin-assets.com/?date=27-05-2015#1146160

Worth quoting because I agree with his monetary view. However, I think he is wrong with respect to a proof-of-work cryptocurrency which is not only a financial system but also a device that has the function in a certain way including mining incentives. For the later, a positive rate of inflation is superior.

fixed inflation is not fundamentally different from zero inflation just as long as the inflation is known

Fiat money has more or less fixed inflation which is done by the European Central Bank inflation targetting.

No it isn't fixed. It is subject to change at their discretion, which is generally done to favor one particular interest group over another.

A preprogrammed rate of inflation doesn't really differ from a fixed supply, as MP explained, as long as the schedule is fully known to everyone in advance. If we enter into a contract where you agree to pay me 100 units next year, if we both know the inflation rate will be 2% we can instead agree on 102 units instead, which represents the same constant value.

The problem comes in when we agree on 102 based on an expectation of 2% and then the ECB decides that 3% or 1% is better. Then they are favoring either you or me in our contract.

Take Bitcoin, which is non-inflationary by design. One bitcoin is equal to 1/21m of the total. As long as we know what the total is going to be, we can simply agree to transact in units of 1/21m of the total instead of transacting in 1 BTC. There is no real difference. With fiat, you can't even do that, really, because the total money supply is not only not fixed or on a fixed schedule, but isn't even transparent. The best we can do are estimates made after the fact and then often revised.

It made more of a difference when adjusting prices was difficult (required changing product packaging, price stickers, etc.). But in the electronic age that doesn't apply any more.

[smooth]

Monero hasn't "fixed inflation" neither, the correct economic term is http://www.investopedia.com/terms/d/disinflation.asp

The more important consideration is whether the schedule is fixed and known in advance to everyone.

[blacky90]

i know it is hard to guess but when do you guys expect a significant rise in prices?
do you think it will still be happen this year?

[macsga]

Pushed the price up a bit today. My average accumulation price now weights at 0.00219.

[mmortal03]

By Nazis, do you mean NSDAP? Or the ashkenazi who have projected their own actions to what Nazi stands for to most of people these days? Also is everyone who calls themselves Jew actually a Jew? Khazars in Israel are sterilizing the Ethiopian Jews (who have a longer history of being a part of the Jewry than the Khazars themselves!). Forced sterilization was taught to me to be a Nazi practice, so perhaps Israel=Nazi actually..

Um, the term "Ashkenazi" derives from Ashkenaz, whereas the term "Nazi" derives from Nationalsozialismus (National Socialism). The terms have nothing linguistically to do with each other. And, this is off-topic.

[TrueCryptonaire]

By Nazis, do you mean NSDAP? Or the ashkenazi who have projected their own actions to what Nazi stands for to most of people these days? Also is everyone who calls themselves Jew actually a Jew? Khazars in Israel are sterilizing the Ethiopian Jews (who have a longer history of being a part of the Jewry than the Khazars themselves!). Forced sterilization was taught to me to be a Nazi practice, so perhaps Israel=Nazi actually..

Um, the term "Ashkenazi" derives from Ashkenaz, whereas the term "Nazi" derives from Nationalsozialismus (National Socialism). The terms have nothing linguistically to do with each other. And, this is off-topic.

My original and offtopicish comment was due to Risto's antisemitistic posts on his Facwebook where he spreads the propaganda Neo-Nazis which are even pretty well-known  by the Finnish Security Intelligence Service (Supo).

But now enough of this off-topic. Back to the bearish trend of Monero which has only dead-cat rallies these days. The price drops 20-30 % and rises only 10-15 % making the bearish trend possible and creating the desperate  bagholder community which every now and then makes the silly pumping posts on the threads and are trolling me who (as usual) is right when it comes to the trend.

[ArticMine]

https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=1074701.0;all
 
This is potentially explosive and Monero is the leading alt-coin that is not affected by the 1MB blocksize limit. Selling XBT for a combination of XMR and a major fiat currency USD, EUR, CAD, GBP, CHF, JPY, AUD etc., may turn out to be a smart defensive move in this market.

It was the 1MB blocksize issue that brought me to Monero in the first place.

Edit: Interesting poll. https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=1075431.0;all

[catena5260]

i know it is hard to guess but when do you guys expect a significant rise in prices?
do you think it will still be happen this year?

No.

Alts will rise when BTC rises, what may take several years.

See this picture, taken from the wall observer thread:



According to the picture, the next big rise will happen in 2019

[ArticMine]

i know it is hard to guess but when do you guys expect a significant rise in prices?
do you think it will still be happen this year?

No.

Alts will rise when BTC rises, what may take several years.

See this picture, taken from the wall observer thread:



According to the picture, the next big rise will happen in 2019

Under normal circumstances I would agree with you, but what is keeping XBT down right now is the uncertainty over the 1 MB blocksize limit. XMR is the leading alt-coin that does not have this issue. So it takes only a very small amount of hedging people selling XBT for fiat but also buying a small amount of XMR as a hedge to markedly impact the price of XMR to the upside.

Edit: What has a better risk to return ratio in most scenarios: A 75% USD, 25% XMR or B 100% XBT? I say the issue of the 1MB blocksize limit makes A the far superior choice both in terms of the upside potential and the downside risk.

[kazuki49]

According to the picture, the next big rise will happen in 2019

Thats pretty much how long I'm willing to hold, it helps that the tail emission will only start in may 2022.

[Siexpert]

By Nazis, do you mean NSDAP? Or the ashkenazi who have projected their own actions to what Nazi stands for to most of people these days? Also is everyone who calls themselves Jew actually a Jew? Khazars in Israel are sterilizing the Ethiopian Jews (who have a longer history of being a part of the Jewry than the Khazars themselves!). Forced sterilization was taught to me to be a Nazi practice, so perhaps Israel=Nazi actually..

Um, the term "Ashkenazi" derives from Ashkenaz, whereas the term "Nazi" derives from Nationalsozialismus (National Socialism). The terms have nothing linguistically to do with each other. And, this is off-topic.

My original and offtopicish comment was due to Risto's antisemitistic posts on his Facwebook where he spreads the propaganda Neo-Nazis which are even pretty well-known  by the Finnish Security Intelligence Service (Supo).

But now enough of this off-topic. Back to the bearish trend of Monero which has only dead-cat rallies these days. The price drops 20-30 % and rises only 10-15 % making the bearish trend possible and creating the desperate  bagholder community which every now and then makes the silly pumping posts on the threads and are trolling me who (as usual) is right when it comes to the trend.

The RSI divergence is pretty obvious already, so my predictions are that there is a 80% chance we won't see 0.0016 in the next 3 months. Be careful with TrueCryptonaire's posts, he was recommending to buy at the 0.004 top because "it's a nice base for a rocket". But buying at 0.004 is far not that bad than selling at 0.002, if Monero will succeed.

Here is the 1 day chart to see what I'm talking about:

http://i59.tinypic.com/i1d4oy.png

[pinky]

The RSI divergence is pretty obvious already, so my predictions are that there is a 80% chance we won't see 0.0016 in the next 3 months.

80% - how did you come up with these number?
3 months - why are you so confident in timing?

[Siexpert]

The RSI divergence is pretty obvious already, so my predictions are that there is a 80% chance we won't see 0.0016 in the next 3 months.

80% - how did you come up with these number?
3 months - why are you so confident in timing?

There is no exact formula to calculate probability in markets like in statistics, so the 80% means I'm pretty sure an uptrend will start, but unexpected events, like a bitcoin crash sub 200$ or some bad news about Monero can invalidate every trading analysis prediction.
I have chosen the 3 months period because the last price rise and fall cycle took about 3 months. I think the price has a good chance to go up to the 0.004 level again this summer. If the 0.0043 top is broken, then 0.01 might be the next target. If the price fails to break the 0.0043 level, then the price will return to the current levels or maybe even lower. But again, the 3 month period is only valid if the price starts to rise now. If the near-term bottom at 0.001678 is broken, then the price can go pretty fast to 0.001.

All of above if pure speculation based on trading analysis: observing trends and support/resistance levels in the past and making conclusions based on the most frequent price evolution patterns. But it is not a 100% accurate tool of predicting the future.

I hold about 30% of my crypto wealth in Monero and I'm bullish right now both on shorter (weeks-months) and longer term.

[iCEBREAKER]

It was the 1MB blocksize issue that brought me to Monero in the first place.

What's the UXTO growth situation for Monero?

I assume since it's a different codebase, the stack won't overflow like Bitcoin's.

[dEBRUYNE]

The RSI divergence is pretty obvious already, so my predictions are that there is a 80% chance we won't see 0.0016 in the next 3 months.

80% - how did you come up with these number?
3 months - why are you so confident in timing?

There is no exact formula to calculate probability in markets like in statistics, so the 80% means I'm pretty sure an uptrend will start, but unexpected events, like a bitcoin crash sub 200$ or some bad news about Monero can invalidate every trading analysis prediction.
I have chosen the 3 months period because the last price rise and fall cycle took about 3 months. I think the price has a good chance to go up to the 0.004 level again this summer. If the 0.0043 top is broken, then 0.01 might be the next target. If the price fails to break the 0.0043 level, then the price will return to the current levels or maybe even lower. But again, the 3 month period is only valid if the price starts to rise now. If the near-term bottom at 0.001678 is broken, then the price can go pretty fast to 0.001.

All of above if pure speculation based on trading analysis: observing trends and support/resistance levels in the past and making conclusions based on the most frequent price evolution patterns. But it is not a 100% accurate tool of predicting the future.

I hold about 30% of my crypto wealth in Monero and I'm bullish right now both on shorter (weeks-months) and longer term.

Thanks for the analysis, appreciate it. I got one little remark, after 0.0043 is broken, we will still stumble upon 2 heavy resistances, 0.0051 & 0.0058 (which were previous tops). If these two get broken as well, we might see 0.01 indeed.