[XMR] Monero Speculation

[cAPSLOCK]

The advent of short selling isn't really bullish or bearish in my opinion, but it has a net positive on the market.  It create liquidity, smooths out variance,  and thereby aids in price discovery.

Therefore after a time, the market becomes harder to manipulate and the price (supposedly) more accurately will reflect the actual sentiment of the market be it positive or negative.

On the other hand, rallies fueled by a short squeeze are fun to behold.

Short positions will make or break bears.  It will give our favorite naysayers a way to put their money where their mouth is.

[adhitthana]

Bought a nice amount of blackcoin with profits from monero
Thanks for the pump

Good for you and well picked

[adhitthana]

How will short selling affect XMR in the short term?

People used to be able to go long but not short. Now people can do either. Meaning one would expect there to be more short selling now than before. So it's bearish. Right? Am I missing something? But people also didn't used to be able to go long on margin. So that should be bullish. Maybe it cancels out?

Short selling has been going on by Market Makers for a long time. When www.digitalbtc.com went public they had to disclose their business practices, and that included short selling (presuambly with the help of the exchanges).
The difference is now you will be able to do it as well.  

Digitalbtc have partnerships with Cryptsy so they would have been short selling there for some time I'd say.

http://www.asx.com.au/asxpdf/20140610/pdf/42q3q07vlf5b3l.pdf

Last paragraph page 1

I assume that any Market Maker would be doing the same regardless of the exchange. They'd just say .."we will increase volume...but we need to be able to short sell coins you have." 

[americanpegasus]

The advent of short selling isn't really bullish or bearish in my opinion, but it has a net positive on the market.  It create liquidity, smooths out variance,  and thereby aids in price discovery.

Therefore after a time, the market becomes harder to manipulate and the price (supposedly) more accurately will reflect the actual sentiment of the market be it positive or negative.

On the other hand, rallies fueled by a short squeeze are fun to behold.

Short positions will make or break bears.  It will give our favorite naysayers a way to put their money where their mouth is.

 
 
I'm personally hoping that a bunch of tards took advantage of the chance to short their hated XMR, and as soon as this 48-hour period is up (which is soon) we are going to see the demand return to XMR in full force, except now there's less to go around. 
 
Smaller supply, same demand + idiots who shorted and are about to get margin squeezed: 
 
= should be interesting super-bull conditions.

[illodin]

Smaller supply, same demand + idiots who shorted and are about to get margin squeezed:  

Do you expect the demand to stay the same, when a lot of the privacy conscious people who'd likely be interested in anon coins will now leave Poloniex because of its KYC policy?

On the other hand, perhaps the same is true for supply, botnets might switch to another coin as their deposit / withdrawal patterns should look suspicious to polo.

[cAPSLOCK]

Looks like we could be about done pricing the KYC/AML news in.

People like to talk about weak and strong hands...  THIS is a time, if you look at the chart, when we were surely passing coins from weak to strong.  Volume went up and the price held in the long run.  It was bumpy, but buying and selling ended up washing out.  Those who bought are happy I bet.

[rdnkjdi]

KYC/AML?

[Lloydimiller4]

Wow, down to 150k XMR on the ask side of poloniex.

Yea, this is the lowest I've seen it in about half a year maybe?

Anyone trying to buy in right now is going to move the price, unless some bears/shorters appear to try and delay the inevitable

[dEBRUYNE]

Wow, down to 150k XMR on the ask side of poloniex.

Yea, this is the lowest I've seen it in about half a year maybe?

Anyone trying to buy in right now is going to move the price, unless some bears/shorters appear to try and delay the inevitable

It was around 110-130k for some minutes during the last run-up, when some guy bought around 160 btc worth of Monero at once. It looks nice though, the ask side decreased with about 120-140k and the bidside only with about 50 btc. The KYC of poloniex will probably scare some malicous (botnet) miners away, who now have to find other options to sell. This might reduce the overall sell pressure, which as a result benefits the price. Futhermore, the ask side currently looks very smoothly with no real (scare) walls. Afterall, this might be a good thing to happen to XMR.

[medusa13]

still feel dull, took me some times to process the somehow bad news. atm i really dont know how it will play out in the future, some people definitiley left polo. maybe they will return if it stays the only liquid market, but for now i dont think so. even if this has nothing to do directly with xmr at all, yesterday was one of those rare nights i turned my node off after all my transfers finished.

i was very bullish the past few weeks, but now my sentiment somehow turned due to this. i feel cheated by poloniex. not becasue they implemented those rules, but becasue of how fast they did it and how they communicated it. the capital flight out of polo was sure enormous and is not yet finished it seems. people clearly prefer btc to withdrawl. maybe the ones joining becasue of margin trading will compensate it, maybe not.

and no, i am not a botnet owner.

[Lloydimiller4]

still feel dull, took me some times to process the somehow bad news. atm i really dont know how it will play out in the future, some people definitiley left polo. maybe they will return if it stays the only liquid market, but for now i dont think so. even if this has nothing to do directly with xmr at all, yesterday was one of those rare nights i turned my node off after all my transfers finished.

i was very bullish the past few weeks, but now my sentiment somehow turned due to this. i feel cheated by poloniex. not becasue they implemented those rules, but becasue of how fast they did it and how they communicated it. the capital flight out of polo was sure enormous and is not yet finished it seems. people clearly prefer btc to withdrawl. maybe the people joining becasue of margin trading will compensate it, maybe not.

and no, i am not a botnet owner.

I don't know why this impacted your decision to turn off your node?

Polo is a U.S. exchange, they need to comply with U.S. law. It sucks that it happened so quickly, but I'd rather there be an exchange than none at all. I believe decentralized exchanges are coming, and when they do so people will be able to trade freely and anonymously.

Poloniex changing their rules certainly makes our short term direction cloudy, but if you check, there are a lot less sells than buys.

[medusa13]

I don't know why this impacted your decision to turn off your node?

Polo is a U.S. exchange, they need to comply with U.S. law. It sucks that it happened so quickly, but I'd rather there be an exchange than none at all. I believe decentralized exchanges are coming, and when they do so people will be able to trade freely and anonymously.

Poloniex changing their rules certainly makes our short term direction cloudy, but if you check, there are a lot less sells than buys.

i was just frustrated (i turned the computer completely off ), the short to mid term future for monero has not been as cloudy as it is right now for a very long time. i dont know if i really belive in decentralized exchanges. Open transactions exists, yet no one really uses it. decentralized exchanges wont fill this gap for now. A quick and dirty unregulated, centralized exchange needs to pop up until then, somehow comparable to how cryptonodexchange did it, just in Tonga, Monaco, whatever

[cAPSLOCK]

I don't know why this impacted your decision to turn off your node?

Polo is a U.S. exchange, they need to comply with U.S. law. It sucks that it happened so quickly, but I'd rather there be an exchange than none at all. I believe decentralized exchanges are coming, and when they do so people will be able to trade freely and anonymously.

Poloniex changing their rules certainly makes our short term direction cloudy, but if you check, there are a lot less sells than buys.

i was just frustrated (i turned the computer completely off ), the short to mid term future for monero has not been as cloudy as it is right now for a very long time. i dont know if i really belive in decentralized exchanges. Open transactions exists, yet no one really uses it. decentralized exchanges wont fill this gap for now. A quick and dirty unregulated, centralized exchange needs to pop up until then, somehow comparable to how cryptonodexchange did it, just in Tonga, Monaco, whatever

Well here's the thing(s). 

1.  Poloniex is not Monero and Monero is not Poloniex.  All the exchanges doing this are affecting all the assets they trade.  It's KYC/AML for Monero, NXT, DASH, ETC...  The playing field is still level.

2.  There are still ways to trade. XMR.to, Shapeshift, Coinomat.  Combine these and other services and you will find a way to retain full anonymity I think.

3.  Plus trading on Poloniex does not break the anonymity of Monero in any way!  It just changes your relationship to Poloniex.

[cAPSLOCK]

Aaaaand the chart just devours another bear.  Gulp.  We are seeing heavy selling pressure and a resilient chart.  Any one else seeing what I am seeing?

[smooth]

still feel dull, took me some times to process the somehow bad news. atm i really dont know how it will play out in the future, some people definitiley left polo. maybe they will return if it stays the only liquid market, but for now i dont think so. even if this has nothing to do directly with xmr at all, yesterday was one of those rare nights i turned my node off after all my transfers finished.

i was very bullish the past few weeks, but now my sentiment somehow turned due to this. i feel cheated by poloniex. not becasue they implemented those rules, but becasue of how fast they did it and how they communicated it. the capital flight out of polo was sure enormous and is not yet finished it seems. people clearly prefer btc to withdrawl. maybe the people joining becasue of margin trading will compensate it, maybe not.

and no, i am not a botnet owner.

I don't know why this impacted your decision to turn off your node?

Polo is a U.S. exchange, they need to comply with U.S. law. It sucks that it happened so quickly, but I'd rather there be an exchange than none at all. I believe decentralized exchanges are coming, and when they do so people will be able to trade freely and anonymously.

Poloniex changing their rules certainly makes our short term direction cloudy, but if you check, there are a lot less sells than buys.

I think what he's saying is that Poloniex has been a great supporter of the Monero community. By implementing their policy change with an obnoxious and customer-hostile two-day notices (where people who happen not to be online every day are not forced to give up their information or have their coins stolen) they just told the Monero community go fuck ourselves. Without even so much as an explanation other than "Hey guys, good news, you can trade on margin and pay more commissions now!"

Compliance is perfectly fine, and to be expected. Giving your biggest customer base the finger with a two-day notice is not.

And I told them that when they contacted me to try to smooth things over.

Fuck you Poloniex. You screwed up here.

[Hueristic]

The community exchange needs to reopen in response.

[Febo]

Wow, down to 150k XMR on the ask side of poloniex.

Probably some people pull their XMR from Poloniex yesterday.

[thelibertycap]

Polo is a U.S. exchange, they need to comply with U.S. law. It sucks that it happened so quickly, but I'd rather there be an exchange than none at all. I believe decentralized exchanges are coming, and when they do so people will be able to trade freely and anonymously.

From a longer term investment point of view, the sooner they comply and be the biggest xmr exchange that is regulated by U.S. law, the sooner we can expect that kind of market liquidity only bitcoin can dream of, for now.

We are stuck in the short term - and no p2p exchanges in this miserable presence.

[cAPSLOCK]

I think what he's saying is that Poloniex has been a great supporter of the Monero community. By implementing their policy change with an obnoxious and customer-hostile two-day notices (where people who happen not to be online every day are not forced to give up their information or have their coins stolen) they just told the Monero community go fuck ourselves. Without even so much as an explanation other than "Hey guys, good news, you can trade on margin and pay more commissions now!"

Compliance is perfectly fine, and to be expected. Giving your biggest customer base the finger with a two-day notice is not.

And I told them that when they contacted me to try to smooth things over.

Fuck you Poloniex. You screwed up here.

You've got a point there.  Interestingly I notice Kraken has just started beta margin trading at exactly the same time.  Could these be related in some way.  Seems like such a coincedence.

[G2M]

poppa caps, next time crop it out, instead of scribbling.

Scribbling invites filters 

The timing is interesting though, maybe there was some correlation in the sense that once margin trading opened up, that would mean that shorts are available everywhere coins are traded, possibly to prevent arbitration attempts.