[XMR] Monero Speculation

[sdmathis]

Good shit you guys seem to be smoking... price is too high at 2x the all time low?

Long squeeze?

This isn't all-inmarginlongdoubledownFINEX

Good luck shorting.

It's just our objective opinion. It's not a personal insult to you or the Monero community. There are Bulls and there are Bears. That's fine. What makes no sense, however, are the perms-Bulls. There seem to be a lot of those around here.

[ArticMine]

...

It's just our objective opinion. It's not a personal insult to you or the Monero community. There are Bulls and there are Bears. That's fine. What makes no sense, however, are the perms-Bulls. There seem to be a lot of those around here.

By perms-Bulls do you mean those who were buying at 0.00110 from those who were selling at 0.00110 hoping to buy back at 0.0080? It is true that in the short term the perms-Bulls were wrong in that the bottom was 0.00091. It really all depends on the trader's time frame.

[TrueCryptonaire]

Good shit you guys seem to be smoking... price is too high at 2x the all time low?

Long squeeze?

This isn't all-inmarginlongdoubledownFINEX

Good luck shorting.

I wish Polo would announce the short/long ratios so people could see what is the situation.
The fact is, there have been a lot of bitcoins borrowed from me at pretty hefty rate and Moneros very few borrowed even with relatively moderate rates...

I am not shorting nor longing but lending since it is the only way the income is guaranteed.
However I am a little bit worried for the people who are margin longing Moneros at Poloniex.
I think I will get my bitcoins eventually paid back - anyway the 30 day maturity is running to the end soon so I will get the money back but I wonder if the borrower make any money if he or she waits until everybody start dumping and the bears will wake up.

Anyone can follow bull-bear ratios indirectly by following the rates one can borrow any currency.

[sdmathis]

...

It's just our objective opinion. It's not a personal insult to you or the Monero community. There are Bulls and there are Bears. That's fine. What makes no sense, however, are the perms-Bulls. There seem to be a lot of those around here.

By perms-Bulls do you mean those who were buying at 0.00110 from those who were selling at 0.00110 hoping to buy back at 0.0080? It is true that in the short term the perms-Bulls were wrong in that the bottom was 0.00091. It really all depends on the trader's time frame.

A permanent-Bull is someone who is always bullish on the market regardless of the underlying condition. It has nothing to do with what someone's entry or exit price was, though I suppose price could cause the mentality.

[dEBRUYNE]

Good shit you guys seem to be smoking... price is too high at 2x the all time low?

Long squeeze?

This isn't all-inmarginlongdoubledownFINEX

Good luck shorting.

I wish Polo would announce the short/long ratios so people could see what is the situation.
The fact is, there have been a lot of bitcoins borrowed from me at pretty hefty rate and Moneros very few borrowed even with relatively moderate rates...

I am not shorting nor longing but lending since it is the only way the income is guaranteed.
However I am a little bit worried for the people who are margin longing Moneros at Poloniex.
I think I will get my bitcoins eventually paid back - anyway the 30 day maturity is running to the end soon so I will get the money back but I wonder if the borrower make any money if he or she waits until everybody start dumping and the bears will wake up.

Anyone can follow bull-bear ratios indirectly by following the rates one can borrow any currency.

This is partly flawed, because BTC could also be borrowed to go long on coins different than XMR.

[TrueCryptonaire]

Good shit you guys seem to be smoking... price is too high at 2x the all time low?

Long squeeze?

This isn't all-inmarginlongdoubledownFINEX

Good luck shorting.

I wish Polo would announce the short/long ratios so people could see what is the situation.
The fact is, there have been a lot of bitcoins borrowed from me at pretty hefty rate and Moneros very few borrowed even with relatively moderate rates...

I am not shorting nor longing but lending since it is the only way the income is guaranteed.
However I am a little bit worried for the people who are margin longing Moneros at Poloniex.
I think I will get my bitcoins eventually paid back - anyway the 30 day maturity is running to the end soon so I will get the money back but I wonder if the borrower make any money if he or she waits until everybody start dumping and the bears will wake up.

Anyone can follow bull-bear ratios indirectly by following the rates one can borrow any currency.

This is partly flawed, because BTC could also be borrowed to go long on coins different than XMR.

If you look at the volumes they are trading with other coins the total volume of trading with other coins that can be margin traded is hardly achieving the volume of XMR.
I am not saying here BTC is not used to margin trade other coins but it is traded much less to other coins than XMR.

Judging the huge premium on lending btc over lending xmr and having seen the difference in trading volumes in all the coins I can say it is not only XMR that is longed.

[jehst]

This thread is going downhill. Although it would be interesting to track margin lending rates on Poloniex to estimate how under or overleveraged the market is.

[BlindMayorBitcorn]

Now I feel like having some toast!

My activities in the Bitcoin space are a complicated front. I'm actually here promoting for the International Grains Council.

NB. I'm also a permanent member of the Wheat Advisory Committee in three seperate states.

[ArticMine]

...

It's just our objective opinion. It's not a personal insult to you or the Monero community. There are Bulls and there are Bears. That's fine. What makes no sense, however, are the perms-Bulls. There seem to be a lot of those around here.

By perms-Bulls do you mean those who were buying at 0.00110 from those who were selling at 0.00110 hoping to buy back at 0.0080? It is true that in the short term the perms-Bulls were wrong in that the bottom was 0.00091. It really all depends on the trader's time frame.

A permanent-Bull is someone who is always bullish on the market regardless of the underlying condition. It has nothing to do with what someone's entry or exit price was, though I suppose price could cause the mentality.

It has also a lot to do with the time frame of the trader / investor. Someone who is looking at a 2 year or longer hold with Monero will appear to be a perma-Bull to a day trader trading Monero on margin.

[rpietila]

My observation from the thread and the price is that everyone (me included) seems to want it to go down, if only a little. Yet it is unwilling to go down. The shorting/longing on Poloniex does not seem to have affected the situation at all.

[TrueCryptonaire]

My observation from the thread and the price is that everyone (me included) seems to want it to go down, if only a little. Yet it is unwilling to go down. The shorting/longing on Poloniex does not seem to have affected the situation at all.

Yes, instead of buying directly Moneros with BTC the BTC has been lent via Margin trading for others to buy XMR.
Hardly nobody wants to short it.
Therefore if a big buyer enters, it will not most likely trigger a wave of short coveries but I am afraid a dumpster will trigger a tornado of long squeeze.

That is my analysis on the current situation and can be wrong.

Patience is the King and it usually is rewarded handsomely when it comes to Monero.

Still over 10 kXMR is mined daily vs. 3.6 kBTC is daily mined.

On the other hand, the price of btc has declined which offsets perhaps the situation a little bit especially if a typical Monero buyer is a fiat-denominated hand.

[newb4now]

My observation from the thread and the price is that everyone (me included) seems to want it to go down, if only a little. Yet it is unwilling to go down. The shorting/longing on Poloniex does not seem to have affected the situation at all.

Yes, instead of buying directly Moneros with BTC the BTC has been lent via Margin trading for others to buy XMR.
Hardly nobody wants to short it.
Therefore if a big buyer enters, it will not most likely trigger a wave of short coveries but I am afraid a dumpster will trigger a tornado of long squeeze.

That is my analysis on the current situation and can be wrong.

Patience is the King and it usually is rewarded handsomely when it comes to Monero.

Still over 10 kXMR is mined daily vs. 3.6 kBTC is daily mined.

On the other hand, the price of btc has declined which offsets perhaps the situation a little bit especially if a typical Monero buyer is a fiat-denominated hand.

I agree with you that emission still has a negative effect on the price (short term). However I think that the emission is important to be fair to everyone and not just enrich the early adopters. I like the XMR emission schedule. In time as emission decreases the supply/demand will tilt more towards the demand side. I think the recent drop to under 10 xmr per block is significant.

Trading volume remains several times higher than emission every day right now. Going forward emission will become smaller and smaller percentage of average trading volume. Short term, price may stagnate or drop some. At some point I expect a huge increase in XMR price and it may be sudden. It could follow the entry of a few new larger buyers into the market or some event (XMR intergration into Open Bazaar etc). I prefer to buy/hold instead of trade because the timing of such events can be hard to predict accurately.

Regarding buyers..... I still think most of them use BTC denominated funds instead of fiat.  Most people new to crypto buy BTC first before considering any alternatives. At some point hopefully this will change. Monero Club, etc and a more privacy focused world will help change this.

[dEBRUYNE]

My observation from the thread and the price is that everyone (me included) seems to want it to go down, if only a little. Yet it is unwilling to go down. The shorting/longing on Poloniex does not seem to have affected the situation at all.

I think the following thesis could be applied to this: When everybody is screaming it is going down, they probably already sold and are anticipating on a correction. However, when everybody already sold, you get a lack of sellers and thus price will resist to go down. Opposite is for when everybody is bullish.

[ArticMine]

My observation from the thread and the price is that everyone (me included) seems to want it to go down, if only a little. Yet it is unwilling to go down. The shorting/longing on Poloniex does not seem to have affected the situation at all.

I think the following thesis could be applied to this: When everybody is screaming it is going down, they probably already sold and are anticipating on a correction. However, when everybody already sold, you get a lack of sellers and thus price will resist to go down. Opposite is for when everybody is bullish.

Yes I would agree with this asseseement. My take on this market is that there are a fair number of buyers, some with deep pockets, who have sold XMR and are hoping to buy in the 0.0010 - 0.0020 range. While it may be possible to pick up some XMR in this range, the quantities of XMR required to feed hungry whales may turn out to be a different matter.

Some things to keep in mind here are:
1) The emission is steadiy falling.
2) There has been a steady number of code commits to github over the last six months that are not in the official binaries. The database being the prime example. This creates the false impression that "nothing is happening on the development side".
3) There are a host of external factors that can have a sharp upside impact on the price, starting of course with the 1 MB issue in Bitcoin.

I consider myself a bull in the medium to long term (1-2 years). In the short term: Who knows?

[dnaleor]

My most bullish prediction ever
I present you:

The Massive Monero Head & Shoulders Pattern



ADVICE*
BUY asap; SELL @ 0.008; BUY @ 0.004


* This advice is in no way investment advice. Always consult your professional mainstream investment banker. Never invest more than you can afford to loose.

[ArticMine]

My most bullish prediction ever
I present you:

The Massive Monero Head & Shoulders Pattern



ADVICE*
BUY asap; SELL @ 0.008; BUY @ 0.004


* This advice is in no way investment advice. Always consult your professional mainstream investment banker. Never invest more than you can afford to loose.

Interesting. There is little doubt in my mind that a break above 0.0043 would be very bullish for XMR; however trend following in this market can be dangerous particulary for anyone buying a substantial amount of XMR. I prefer to buy in a falling or flat market, suffer any short term paper losses, and then hold until the fundamentals show up.

Edit: Why wait for a breakout? Why not consider 50% XMR and 50% USD for the same amount of XBT at current prices since one gets the same amount of XMR and one has also the USD as a hedge?

[jehst]

All else being equal, every day that the price doesn't go down, it becomes less likely that the price will go down. That's because smooth emission gives us fewer coins today than it gave us yesterday.

.002 is a nice, round number.

Personally, I will seek to buy more around this level when I have spare cash.

[TrueCryptonaire]

All else being equal, every day that the price doesn't go down, it becomes less likely that the price will go down. That's because smooth emission gives us fewer coins today than it gave us yesterday.

.002 is a nice, round number.

Personally, I will seek to buy more around this level when I have spare cash.

That is exactly the case if you assume there are buyers who are willing to buy more than there is emission of new coins (for long haul).
The gap is filled with early adopters selling.

However, it is not guaranteed that the buyers have desire to buy more Moneros than there is emission + early adopter's selling (for short term).

[rpietila]

Why are permabulls (like me) silent when the price is on the floor? 

[macsga]

Why are permabulls (like me) silent when the price is on the floor? 

"He who chews, speaks not"

Ancient Greek saying.