[XMR] Monero Speculation

[kazuki49]

Not sure, that's where the bankers try to confuse us i guess...

what is your definition of inflation? Is it rising prices as the effect of an expanding money-supply, or is it just an expanding money-supply, wether some prices are rising or not?

As I understand: disinflation is a slowing rate of rising prices... it's not a slowing rate in expanding the money supply... so monero doesn't have disinflation, monero has a fixed inflation rate (as in can't be adjusted at will).

interesting discussion, but maybe off topic over here...

It is disinflation, if you look at a graph of Monero inflation rate it will look like this (except going negative aka deflation):

[smooth]

Bitcoin Core (meaning the implementation as opposed to the Bitcoin protocol, which has a UXTO set but doesn't require processing it in any particular way) does some special thing with the UXTO which I haven't studied specifically so I can't really comment.

Cryptonote doesn't have a UXTO since any output can be spent any number of times. As such all outputs are equal, and there is no special UXTO collection to become overgrown.

In the original cryptonote implementation they were all stored in memory which is obviously absurd. Monero stores them in a database which means they will need to be accessed from a disk, but any efficient database should be able to do these simple lookups efficiently other than the physical access time. Once Monero becomes heavily used that will likely require an SSD, but it seems with 10 TB SSDs possibly arriving within the next year or so the days of anything non-SSD for general purpose computing are likely numbered. Magnetic disks are the new magtape.

We may at some point impose a maximum age for outputs to be mixable (at which point they can be removed from the UXTO when spent, just like Bitcoin; to avoid losing untracability you would have to respend the outputs back to yourself prior to the deadline, or allow a wallet to do so automatically). That was considered for MRL-0004 but didn't quite make the cut because of some unresolved complications. That would allow nodes to operate with more limited storage, the way Bitcoin currently does. That's somewhat dangerous though (with both protocols) since there is nothing to ensure that a sufficient number of full archive nodes exist or don't become overloaded. At some point it may then become impossible or nearly impossible for new participants to do a full sync. So more work is needed there too (again with both protocols).

This is great!  "No UXTO problem" is a feature important enough to be highlighted in the OP and investor/tech presentations.

Monero is even more awesome than I thought.  Thanks smooth!

Look I don't think this is necessarily something to hype about. It means that our engineering work will have to focus on scaling of the entire output set and not some unspent subset (what bitcoin calls the UXTO). That's not necessarily better, and it could be worse.

But I also think that Bitcoin's focus on optimizing for the UXTO may have been a foolish dead end, since the UXTO can be deliberately bloated by an attacker.

[celestio]

I agree with you, I meant there won't be 'a' Bitcoin but two networks cannibalizing each other, so it both can be interpreted as the end of Bitcoin as we know it and the emergence of classic Bitcoin and Gavincoin.

I don't follow bitcoin closely ...what is that all about?

this: https://www.reddit.com/r/Bitcoin/comments/37vg8y/is_the_blockstream_company_the_reason_why_4_core/crqbd78

tl;dr Gavin went nuts and want to abandon the current core bitcoin in favor of an obscure build that will allow his 20m blocks, and he is using his power to make sure everyone will follow him.

I do disagree heavily with the route Gavin's taking, largely because then Bitcoin XT will be controlled by only two people, Gavin and Hearn, and that's pretty centralized, IMO. Also because just increasing the blocksize limit isn't solving anything(Still not close enough in the least to scale to VISA levels for example).

Also, I just realized avatars are allowed, would it be ok if I use your avatar, "we love Monero"?

[kazuki49]

Also, I just realized avatars are allowed, would it be ok if I use your avatar, "we love Monero"?

absolutely, everyone is free to use it

[smooth]

...
We may at some point impose a maximum age for outputs to be mixable (at which point they can be removed from the UXTO when spent, just like Bitcoin; to avoid losing untracability you would have to respend the outputs back to yourself prior to the deadline, or allow a wallet to do so automatically).
...

Whoa... Seems to me that would very much break some fundamental use-cases for Monero. People probably want to store some wealth privately, for a potentially long time, without any ongoing effort; eg, print a paper key, toss it in a few safe locations, and forget about it. That's been the case for a lot of people who embraced bitcoin as a store-of-value, and I'd guess it is/will-be similar with Monero. Requiring respends obviously breaks that capability.

If the wallet does this automatically for you, the problem is solved right? Check his last sentence. If you don't have to do anything yourself nor access the wallet, this argument can be debunked in my opinion. Smooth, do you have any comment on this perhaps?

If it is offline cold storage then no the wallet couldn't automatically keep the coins fresh (or do anything else). But the original concept shouldn't be mistaken as you needing to put a big flashing sign on your head with your monero address and balance. It just means when you did spent the coins the first spend would need to be mix 0, then after that you or others (no one could tell which) could respend those coins with mixing to reblend them back into the fog of the (then) active blockchain easily enough.

But as I said the obvious implementation has unintended complications so this is not on the agenda right now.

[explorer]

...
We may at some point impose a maximum age for outputs to be mixable (at which point they can be removed from the UXTO when spent, just like Bitcoin; to avoid losing untracability you would have to respend the outputs back to yourself prior to the deadline, or allow a wallet to do so automatically).
...

Whoa... Seems to me that would very much break some fundamental use-cases for Monero. People probably want to store some wealth privately, for a potentially long time, without any ongoing effort; eg, print a paper key, toss it in a few safe locations, and forget about it. That's been the case for a lot of people who embraced bitcoin as a store-of-value, and I'd guess it is/will-be similar with Monero. Requiring respends obviously breaks that capability.

If the wallet does this automatically for you, the problem is solved right? Check his last sentence. If you don't have to do anything yourself nor access the wallet, this argument can be debunked in my opinion. Smooth, do you have any comment on this perhaps?

If it is offline cold storage then no the wallet couldn't automatically keep the coins fresh (or do anything else). But the original concept shouldn't be mistaken as you needing to put a big flashing sign on your head with your monero address and balance. It just means when you did spent the coins the first spend would need to be mix 0, then after that you or others (no one could tell which) could respend those coins with mixing to reblend them back into the fog of the (then) active blockchain easily enough.

But as I said the obvious implementation has unintended complications so this is not on the agenda right now.

Excellent. So no worse than buying monero on an exchange.   One extra jump and all is well.

[Melbustus]

...
We may at some point impose a maximum age for outputs to be mixable (at which point they can be removed from the UXTO when spent, just like Bitcoin; to avoid losing untracability you would have to respend the outputs back to yourself prior to the deadline, or allow a wallet to do so automatically).
...

Whoa... Seems to me that would very much break some fundamental use-cases for Monero. People probably want to store some wealth privately, for a potentially long time, without any ongoing effort; eg, print a paper key, toss it in a few safe locations, and forget about it. That's been the case for a lot of people who embraced bitcoin as a store-of-value, and I'd guess it is/will-be similar with Monero. Requiring respends obviously breaks that capability.

If the wallet does this automatically for you, the problem is solved right? Check his last sentence. If you don't have to do anything yourself nor access the wallet, this argument can be debunked in my opinion. Smooth, do you have any comment on this perhaps?

If it is offline cold storage then no the wallet couldn't automatically keep the coins fresh (or do anything else). But the original concept shouldn't be mistaken as you needing to put a big flashing sign on your head with your monero address and balance. It just means when you did spent the coins the first spend would need to be mix 0, then after that you or others (no one could tell which) could respend those coins with mixing to reblend them back into the fog of the (then) active blockchain easily enough.

But as I said the obvious implementation has unintended complications so this is not on the agenda right now.

Well, I hope it doesn't show up on the agenda again at all. One of the most fascinating and versatile aspects of the store-of-value case for any crypto-coin stems from the fact that *only* the tiny piece of key data is required for fully-featured control of the asset. That control becomes less-than fully-featured for Monero if outputs were to lose capabilities over time should the corresponding private keys sit offline for long enough.

[Bassica]

Guys, heads up! Hammer formation on the daily. Get ready for another run up.

[TrueCryptonaire]

Guys, heads up! Hammer formation on the daily. Get ready for another run up.

Hard to say if it will go up.
To me it looks it is actually having dead cat rallies with lower peaks.
We might see a break down as well, not necessarily a break up.

[Shrikez]

Guys, heads up! Hammer formation on the daily. Get ready for another run up.

Hard to say if it will go up.
To me it looks it is actually having dead cat rallies with lower peaks.
We might see a break down as well, not necessarily a break up.

Yawn...

and stop posting how you were right when one has to assume you have the funds to push the price in the direction you want to underline your "predictions".

See you in the bullpen when it suits you  

[medusa13]

so what exactly happend? i had no time to follow the market today. the previous wall at 0.002 got dumped and a new one showed up? 
shit happens man

i'm pessimistic about a new run up just now, but i also realized not everyone sees the current situation with polo as critical as i do, so everything seems possible.

as always, preferred move would be UP

[Shrikez]

so what exactly happend? i had no time to follow the market today. the previous wall at 0.002 got dumped and a new one showed up? 
shit happens man

i'm pessimistic about a new run up just now, but i also realized not everyone sees the current situation with polo as critical as i do, so everything seems possible.

as always, preferred move would be UP

Someone took out the previous wall with a corresponding dump and an enthusiastic Warz appeared and did what he usually does

[TrueCryptonaire]

so what exactly happend? i had no time to follow the market today. the previous wall at 0.002 got dumped and a new one showed up?  
shit happens man

i'm pessimistic about a new run up just now, but i also realized not everyone sees the current situation with polo as critical as i do, so everything seems possible.

as always, preferred move would be UP

I am also pessimistic about the bull run currently.
Also it is a scary fact that there is 29 000 xmr on sidelines waiting to be shorted and dumped + there are additional 20 000 xmr on the sell order book, that is 49 000 XMR can potentially be dumped any time.

And while some of the shorters are closing their short positions at profit, the lenders are ready to offer their coins to new shorter and that potentially might create actually pretty vicious cycle for the price. 

To me this pump looks simply like the big holders want to sell their coins and therefore they are pumping the price up and after they have sold, they will remove the buy walls or dump into their own buy walls.

[dEBRUYNE]

so what exactly happend? i had no time to follow the market today. the previous wall at 0.002 got dumped and a new one showed up?  
shit happens man

i'm pessimistic about a new run up just now, but i also realized not everyone sees the current situation with polo as critical as i do, so everything seems possible.

as always, preferred move would be UP

I am also pessimistic about the bull run currently.
Also it is a scary fact that there is 29 000 xmr on sidelines waiting to be shorted and dumped + there are additional 20 000 xmr on the sell order book, that is 49 000 XMR can potentially be dumped any time.

And while some of the shorters are closing their short positions at profit, the lenders are ready to offer their coins to new shorter and that potentially might create actually pretty vicious cycle for the price.  

To me this pump looks simply like the big holders want to sell their coins and therefore they are pumping the price up and after they have sold, they will remove the buy walls or dump into their own buy walls.

The rates imply that the demand for shorting currently is quite low. That 10k offer has been there since the introducement of margin trading on poloniex. I think you're a bit paranoid here, there is also enough BTC on the ask side to dump it to zero, so that argument isn't really viable.

At your last sentence: Could also be the case that they genuinely want to buy. You are stating this as a fact, while de facto we will never know what the real reason behind these walls is.

[hodlmybtc]

I bet most of those 29000 XMR are from longtime holders, at least 2k are from me which I offered when Poloniex introduced margin trading and they're sitting there.

[dEBRUYNE]

I bet most of those 29000 XMR are from longtime holders, at least 2k are from me which I offered when Poloniex introduced margin trading and they're sitting there.

What's the reason for this? The rate you get is pretty negligible in comparison with the counterparty risk. Furthermore, it gives dumpers/shorters some additional liquidity. My conclusion is that those XMR would be better suited for an actual wallet.

[macsga]

I bet most of those 29000 XMR are from longtime holders, at least 2k are from me which I offered when Poloniex introduced margin trading and they're sitting there.

What's the reason for this? The rate you get is pretty negligible in comparison with the counterparty risk. Furthermore, it gives dumpers/shorters some additional liquidity. My conclusion is that those XMR would be better suited for an actual wallet.

I don't know if it suits better for a wallet; but it could certainly move the price up (or down) significantly. I personally don't go on margin trading, too much of a risk for my taste.

[hodlmybtc]

I bet most of those 29000 XMR are from longtime holders, at least 2k are from me which I offered when Poloniex introduced margin trading and they're sitting there.

What's the reason for this? The rate you get is pretty negligible in comparison with the counterparty risk. Furthermore, it gives dumpers/shorters some additional liquidity. My conclusion is that those XMR would be better suited for an actual wallet.

Was just to test the feature and I had put most XMR at high rates so someone had to loan the whole book, will be removing the funds from lending tho.

I might use some or all of it on a margin long the coming days, todays dump didn't have much effect and the bid side is building up nicely again.

[kazuki49]

I bet most of those 29000 XMR are from longtime holders, at least 2k are from me which I offered when Poloniex introduced margin trading and they're sitting there.

What's the reason for this? The rate you get is pretty negligible in comparison with the counterparty risk. Furthermore, it gives dumpers/shorters some additional liquidity. My conclusion is that those XMR would be better suited for an actual wallet.

Was just to test the feature and I had put most XMR at high rates so someone had to loan the whole book, will be removing the funds from lending tho.

I might use some or all of it on a margin long the coming days, todays dump didn't have much effect and the bid side is building up nicely again.

I love buying Monero, just put your buy walls and when you are not looking it will be dumped on, but when you are back there will be even more BTC than before on the buy side

[iCEBREAKER]

I bet most of those 29000 XMR are from longtime holders, at least 2k are from me which I offered when Poloniex introduced margin trading and they're sitting there.

What's the reason for this? The rate you get is pretty negligible in comparison with the counterparty risk. Furthermore, it gives dumpers/shorters some additional liquidity. My conclusion is that those XMR would be better suited for an actual wallet.

I want dumpers/shorters to have all the liquidity in the world.

1. Cheaper/easier Monero for me and my miners!

2. They will eventually get caught short and epic squeezes will take us in the direction of a certain very large well-known mass orbiting the earth.

3. Pumping is discouraged.