[XMR] Monero Speculation

[cAPSLOCK]

My current XMR speculation thoughts...

I think the current action shows the effects of a segregated coin.  By that I mean:  Monero is supported by an interestingly qualified group of investors, mostly old BTC hands and is...

• based on a non BTC base
• missing a mainstream GUI
• trade-able at a limited number of exchanges
• tightly held by core investors/believers
• unknown in China

This combination, I believe in part leads to it NOT participating in the current rally, and we find it's moves sometimes disconnected from the market in general.  Both alts and BTC.  

• hard for exchanges to add
• hard for the masses to use/understand
• not as easily trade-able as other more "mainstream" alts
• investors/bagholders are dug in and saturated
• the system is not gaining any foothold, and has no benefit from China

However, if we look at privacy centric alts we see a similar sort of flatness.. what could this mean?  Are we in a general lull around the perceived need for these tools?  Is faith in the future privacy of BTC and LTC rising due to recent events?

Finally, I find it notable that in spite of the continued high inflation and certain bot mining there is enough buying interest to keep the price generally afloat in the trading range it is comfortable in.

I hope we will see more widespread understanding of the platform and the need for something as simple and pure as this tool, and better exposure in general as well as specifically with Asian markets would also help adoption and eventual spread.

[1714729978]

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[1714729978]

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[1714729978]

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[s1gs3gv]

It is the older alts that are moving notably LTC, but also NMC, and PPC. the more recent DOGE has also moved.

Could this be caused by a rotation out of BTC due to concerns about the potential risk of a hard fork ?
And if that is true, is it likely to continue ?

[Johnny Mnemonic]

It is the older alts that are moving notably LTC, but also NMC, and PPC. the more recent DOGE has also moved.

Could this be caused by a rotation out of BTC due to concerns about the potential risk of a hard fork ?
And if that is true, is it likely to continue ?

I don't think so. If that were the case, XMR would be on the rise. But I don't see very many bitcoiners diversifying into any alt, never mind LTC and NMC.

XMR price almost never increases with the alts. This is nothing new.

[DaveyJones]

It is the older alts that are moving notably LTC, but also NMC, and PPC. the more recent DOGE has also moved.

Could this be caused by a rotation out of BTC due to concerns about the potential risk of a hard fork ?
And if that is true, is it likely to continue ?

I don't think so. If that were the case, XMR would be on the rise. But I don't see very many bitcoiners diversifying into any alt, never mind LTC and NMC.

XMR price almost never increases with the alts. This is nothing new.

You don´t have to forget that most of the Asic´s for the old coins are running in china... so raising the general floor some steps higher gives the miners there also more profit if the new floor will be stable...

[XMRChina]

My current XMR speculation thoughts...

I think the current action shows the effects of a segregated coin.  By that I mean:  Monero is supported by an interestingly qualified group of investors, mostly old BTC hands and is...

• based on a non BTC base
• missing a mainstream GUI
• trade-able at a limited number of exchanges
• tightly held by core investors/believers
• unknown in China

This combination, I believe in part leads to it NOT participating in the current rally, and we find it's moves sometimes disconnected from the market in general.  Both alts and BTC.  

• hard for exchanges to add
• hard for the masses to use/understand
• not as easily trade-able as other more "mainstream" alts
• investors/bagholders are dug in and saturated
• the system is not gaining any foothold, and has no benefit from China

However, if we look at privacy centric alts we see a similar sort of flatness.. what could this mean?  Are we in a general lull around the perceived need for these tools?  Is faith in the future privacy of BTC and LTC rising due to recent events?

Finally, I find it notable that in spite of the continued high inflation and certain bot mining there is enough buying interest to keep the price generally afloat in the trading range it is comfortable in.

I hope we will see more widespread understanding of the platform and the need for something as simple and pure as this tool, and better exposure in general as well as specifically with Asian markets would also help adoption and eventual spread.

Great post. I agree about China being important. More translation of important content is needed as well as activity on QQ etc.

It would be nice if BTC38 added XMR. Has anyone contacted them yet? They seem to like high volume alt coins such as XMR and could help us with exposure. Posting more ads on MoneroClub also could help with users who don't want to register with QQ or Facebook, but it seems most Chinese need to learn about Monero before there is more demand for local P2P trading.

[shitaifan2013]

My current XMR speculation thoughts...

I think the current action shows the effects of a segregated coin.  By that I mean:  Monero is supported by an interestingly qualified group of investors, mostly old BTC hands and is...

• based on a non BTC base
• missing a mainstream GUI
• trade-able at a limited number of exchanges
• tightly held by core investors/believers
• unknown in China

This combination, I believe in part leads to it NOT participating in the current rally, and we find it's moves sometimes disconnected from the market in general.  Both alts and BTC.  

• hard for exchanges to add
• hard for the masses to use/understand
• not as easily trade-able as other more "mainstream" alts
• investors/bagholders are dug in and saturated
• the system is not gaining any foothold, and has no benefit from China

However, if we look at privacy centric alts we see a similar sort of flatness.. what could this mean?  Are we in a general lull around the perceived need for these tools?  Is faith in the future privacy of BTC and LTC rising due to recent events?

Finally, I find it notable that in spite of the continued high inflation and certain bot mining there is enough buying interest to keep the price generally afloat in the trading range it is comfortable in.

I hope we will see more widespread understanding of the platform and the need for something as simple and pure as this tool, and better exposure in general as well as specifically with Asian markets would also help adoption and eventual spread.

Great post. I agree about China being important. More translation of important content is needed as well as activity on QQ etc.

It would be nice if BTC38 added XMR. Has anyone contacted them yet? They seem to like high volume alt coins such as XMR and could help us with exposure. Posting more ads on MoneroClub also could help with users who don't want to register with QQ or Facebook, but it seems most Chinese need to learn about Monero before there is more demand for local P2P trading.

I agree,  more exposure to china would be nice. Since there is no chinese version of getmonero.org yet, it could be time for another crowdfund attempt. I'd be in with 100XMR again for someone to translate getmonero.org to chinese. are there any recommended eng-chinese translators in this forum? I've never been to the chinese board.

[jehst]

Chinese will contribute zero to Monero.

[generalizethis]

Chinese will contribute zero to Monero.

Care to explain?

[smooth]

http://www.coindesk.com/elliptic-launches-bitcoin-blockchain-visualization-tool/

This is merely one of many professional well funded attacks on privacy and fungibility that are occurring now and will increase in the near future.

Three known entities doing this type of work are listed in the article. That list is almost certainly not complete: "The company will compete with Chainalysis and Coinalytics, who both offer real-time visualisation tools for bitcoin's blockchain."

[TrueCryptonaire]

Now it would be good to have some people were shorting since Monero is about a lose its liquidity.
If there were open shorts, there would be more liquidity in the dumps as the shorters want to cover and exit their positions.

[Oscilson]

http://www.coindesk.com/elliptic-launches-bitcoin-blockchain-visualization-tool/

This is merely one of many professional well funded attacks on privacy and fungibility that are occurring now and will increase in the near future.

Three known entities doing this type of work are listed in the article. That list is almost certainly not complete: "The company will compete with Chainalysis and Coinalytics, who both offer real-time visualisation tools for bitcoin's blockchain."

Can Monero chain be analysed in a way like BTC?

[smooth]

http://www.coindesk.com/elliptic-launches-bitcoin-blockchain-visualization-tool/

This is merely one of many professional well funded attacks on privacy and fungibility that are occurring now and will increase in the near future.

Three known entities doing this type of work are listed in the article. That list is almost certainly not complete: "The company will compete with Chainalysis and Coinalytics, who both offer real-time visualisation tools for bitcoin's blockchain."

Can Monero chain be analysed in a way like BTC?

The whole point of Monero's stealth addresses and ring signatures is to prevent, or at least greatly reduce, this kind of blockchain analysis. MRL-0001 and MRL-0004 (available from http://lab.getmonero.org/) address some forms of analysis that are still possible in Monero and how these are being addressed.

Some discussion at a basic level of how the cryptonote technology in Monero provides blockchain analysis resistance can be found here: https://cryptonote.org/inside/

[kazuki49]

Chinese will contribute zero to Monero.

Care to explain?

They are not known for being risk-takers or innovators, the chinese will come zergrushing after we roundeyes took the risk and built the initial infrastructure, they will copy paste the services into their native moonspeak and then only then bankroll the economy for their own benefits, exactly as happened with Bitcoin.

[dnaleor]

chart, charts, charts, that's what we like, no?
Well, here you go:


When we break the short term downtrend, I think it will be time to go long again.
When the 50% fib level at 0.00264 is cleared, we will see a slow push through the resistance between 0.0028-0.003.
After that it will be full bull modus again, with some FOMO > 0.0043. I can see it reaching 0.00545 or even higher

0.00545: "conservatiev goal" : It's the 50% retracement from the top at 0.01 to bottom at 0.00091
0.00785: "FOMO goal" :  Remember my Monero Masive Head & Shoulders pattern? I lower the target a bit to 0.00785. This is the first fib retracement (76.4%)

[TrueCryptonaire]

chart, charts, charts, that's what we like, no?
Well, here you go:


When we break the short term downtrend, I think it will be time to go long again.
When the 50% fib level at 0.00264 is cleared, we will see a slow push through the resistance between 0.0028-0.003.
After that it will be full bull modus again, with some FOMO > 0.0043. I can see it reaching 0.00545 or even higher

0.00545: "conservatiev goal" : It's the 50% retracement from the top at 0.01 to bottom at 0.00091
0.00785: "FOMO goal" :  Remember my Monero Masive Head & Shoulders pattern? I lower the target a bit to 0.00785. This is the first fib retracement (76.4%)

It can crash and go down also.
After all, there is very little shorts but several longs so if there will be a bigger dump (some permabull changes his/her mind and dump) which triggers the long squeeze.

[vokain]

I don't think those that play with margin here are really taking any positions in significant amounts as some imply. But I just guess.

Does anyone know of hard numbers?

[dEBRUYNE]

I don't think those that play with margin here are really taking any positions in significant amounts as some imply. But I just guess.

Does anyone know of hard numbers?

No hard numbers are revealed (yet). However, poloniex did state that they would make and release something similar as to bfxdata.

[camu6]

With all the bear talk in here... i wonder why there is basically nothing up for sale to the  .0023 -.0024 level? One decent buy clears the June 8th high, shorts closing not even considerd.

Don't get burned.

[TrueCryptonaire]

With all the bear talk in here... i wonder why there is basically nothing up for sale to the  .0023 -.0024 level? One decent buy clears the June 8th high, shorts closing not even considerd.

Don't get burned.

via Imgflip Meme Maker

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[dEBRUYNE]

With all the bear talk in here... i wonder why there is basically nothing up for sale to the  .0023 -.0024 level? One decent buy clears the June 8th high, shorts closing not even considerd.

Don't get burned.

--snip--

via Imgflip Meme Maker

Told by whom exactly? Oh yeah, I remember now! It was you:

I would not be surprised if Monero will be traded with multiples of bitcoins each.
Many who did not buy now will kick their legs for it.

I am looking prophetically to the day when Bitcoin is one of Monero's altcoins.  

Oh and this page is full of similar statements:

https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?action=profile;u=375390;sa=showPosts;start=100

And this one as well (partly) -> https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?action=profile;u=375390;sa=showPosts;start=120

Please refrain from this kind of trolling and just leave the threat. You don't add anything significant to the conversation. Neither in bearish times, nor in bullish times.