[XMR] Monero Speculation

[kazuki49]

I'm also sick of seeing this monero thread bumped to the front page of the altcoin discussion page by the same few posters. At last it's slightly more bearable than the 15 different monero threads but still almost every other altcoin sticks to the less trafficed altcoin announcement page

I have asked the devs to abandon development, the holders to sell all their coins, the posters to cease posting to this thread, and the community to quit thinking that the coin could have even a microscopic chance to change the world.

No avail.

I said that it is doomed but I did not see any fucks given 

TBT I remember you saying this I have been asking to stop using bitcointalk for ages now I know no one will hear me, Monero is unstoppable.

[farfiman]

.......
I'm also sick of seeing this monero thread bumped to the front page of the altcoin discussion page by the same few posters. At last it's slightly more bearable than the 15 different monero threads but still almost every other altcoin sticks to the less trafficed altcoin announcement page

Thanks for the bump.

[legit_chocolateface]

I'm also sick of seeing this monero thread bumped to the front page of the altcoin discussion page by the same few posters. At last it's slightly more bearable than the 15 different monero threads but still almost every other altcoin sticks to the less trafficed altcoin announcement page

I know how you feel, I have asked the devs to abandon this sinking ship full of rats and holes that is bitcointalk, they wont hear, its doing harm to Monero having the majority of its discussion in an alien forum, about the rest of your rant, you just hate us cause you aint us.

it's well known bitcointalk is a shithole but it's unfortunately the only shithole you've got.
moving onto your closed walls monero specific domain a la paycointalk is the altcoin equivalent of setting up scientology camps. You'll be sticking your fingers in the ears saying you can't hear the haters and preaching to the choir in a gigantic circlejerk while volume dwindles and involvement becomes increasingly diluted.. why must you keep turning this into monero vs the world.?

I simply said I'm sick everyday of reading this thread on the front page when there is barely any exciting information within. Lots of dreamers imagining how insanely rich they will become when xmr reaches parity to an oz of palladium and  many conspiracy theorists discussing how monero is being held down when the price heads south, none of that talk when the price pops up again... price goes up and down..you can't explain that, it doesn't need a forum post each time it shifts.. All I'm saying is It would be nice if it was simply condensed down into meaningful status updates on the project, with less signal to noise ratio. You guys over aggressive sales pitch and promotion drove off many, that's a truth.

I'm also sick of seeing this monero thread bumped to the front page of the altcoin discussion page by the same few posters. At last it's slightly more bearable than the 15 different monero threads but still almost every other altcoin sticks to the less trafficed altcoin announcement page

I know how you feel, I have asked the devs to abandon this sinking ship full of rats and holes that is bitcointalk, they wont hear, its doing harm to Monero having the majority of its discussion in an alien forum, about the rest of your rant, you just hate us cause you aint us.

Stills this forum in inevitable to get those to hear about Monero, who still didn´t. The GetMonero Forum is more like the Inner Circle for those people that did. BCT is like the Social Media Platform for Cryptos.

This is the convenient part to us, but for the ones like legit_chocolateface that may see Monero as a threat to their shitcoin investment, its a reason to troll, so pretty much everyone on crypto already knows about Monero, the next step now is getting in the ears of those who don't, and it cannot be this way IMO, buried in the bitcointalk - altcoin section some few threads of pure platinum bits among thousands of scams and trolls.

See, this is the kind of attitude I am speaking of. You can deny it but it has caused many to simply avoid joining this crazy cheerleading squad. Apparently Monero is all supreme and any opinion to the contrary must come from some sort of sleeper agent working for another altcoin development team or one with a personal vendetta against monero... How pray tell is Monero a threat to my shitcoin investment ?  This is a trading game, it's not personal.  I am sat here wondering how on gods green earth the market decide faircoin and banxshares are more enticing than monero but that's just the way it is.. this is inefficient and irrational market, you have to trade swings.

How is xmr a threat anyway... Because it is performing so well recently?  because nobody has mixed baskets? I am quite confused... I have at times, bagholded Monero and at times profited from Monero the same as pretty much every altcoin currently or ever in my portfolio.  In fact the first time I was an XMR bagholder was when risto dumped 40k xmr into one of my buywalls whilst I was already down. I didn't want it filled at the time I had freaked out for a moment as the price took a turn for the worse, but  little bit of patience and sold at a profit awaiting another dip. It came. rinse and repeat coming out on top overall more than I got burned. It's not rocket science.  Nor did I have to resort to posting nonsense here about how Monero will overtake Bitcoin to become the obvious dominant successor.. The same story with many other altcoins. You seem to think this is that nobody is allowed to sell and rebuy or short..  They must just hold forever otherwise they are an enemy employed by evan duffield..

[rpietila]

risto dumped 40k xmr into one of my buywalls

yeah is it not shame to be able to serve wm clients both way (not that I believed the incident is even true)

* * *

But I don't want to collect bonus points from the XMR fanatics that are already too deep invested and therefore eager to speak fanatically. Their problem is not that they are betting the wrong horse (I believe they are exactly right that BTC and XMR are the horses with the highest chance of success, and while both are underpriced, one is 1000 times more underpriced than the other), but that they are disregarding the odds of success, which are slim. This is risky, makes one emotional, and is visible both in the posts here and the sometimes unoptimal trading decisions.

If you (legit_chocolateface) are a trader, don't believe in any coin and only want USD profit, this is a challenging thread for you as most people here do not share the trading mindset, and are not interested in it, so your wisdom in trading is not appreciated. People here want Monero to succeed, and some are all in, some have a calculated position. The focus is not to get more USD/BTC in a few days/weeks timeframe but to change the world.

I am not against that you want to trade coins and make $$, don't you be hostile to those guys who have other aims! 

[aminorex]

High supply inflation means that none of us really has any incentive to pump XMR.

I am aware of one notable exception to this general rule:  If you are aware of largish margined short positions, there is very little reason not to take their money.  In case you are unfamiliar with the process of running stops, it is as simple as placing a sell order just over the price at which margined positions are forced closed, and sweeping the market up to that price.  If you have the required data and do the math, it is as close as you can come to a guaranteed profit, and in a low cap market like this, it doesn't take much capital.  The down side to that is: As thin as the market is, there just isn't that much to be gained by it either;  I don't have the position info, but I do observe that the lend rates on XMR are miniscule, which means demand is quite low, which means positions are quite small, which means running stops just isn't going to net you a large win right now, limited as it is to a small fraction of the outstanding margined short position sizes.  What risk there is in the process comes from sellers on the side-lines dashing in to front-run your reaping order.

[legit_chocolateface]

risto dumped 40k xmr into one of my buywalls

yeah is it not shame to be able to serve wm clients both way (not that I believed the incident is even true)

Oh the incident is true,  I was putting up some motivational walls to the trollbox chorus of comments like  "monero buy support looking strong" etc.. to dig myself out of a small hole (these were the days of 500+btc on one side) as usual and you tested taking out a chunk-  I quickly pulled the rest.  (you will be able to find the polo sell log.. not that you should care that much..)

[rangedriver]

I dont know what is about Monero holders,  they alll seem to exhibit this strange sense of fanatical, zealous self-assuredness of it's undeniable superiority which just comes across a little to jehovas' witnessy to me.

No coin in the cryptospace is removed from a self-advertising mechanic - it's fundamental. The difference with Monero is that the community is well populated, so inevitably is the most discussed. In general, Monero is honest, strong, and intelligently conceived - such components will inevitably secure a clever and stable support base.

 It's like watching a late night infomercial or reading one of these ebook self-improvement pitches..in this thread it's always laughing at the fools who dump.. (haha, nervous laughter) personally I dumped and brought back lower successfully many more times than I've been burned trying it so don't personally feel too much like a fool. Also everything is apparently an orchestrated attack against monero to keep it down.. THEY are trying and hold back this torrential waterfall that will be the monero success story.. The powers that be and the haters are pulling out every stop to contain this raging monero beast.. Yawn  

Okay this is you talking in troll-mode, so in the main, I shall ignore it. That said, there is good reason for Monero to always be on the defensive: 14 months of attacks from lesser coins trying to steal its crown and network. And of course, sock puppet newbie accounts that pop up perpetually speaking in troll-mode.

there is this unrelenting undercurrent being broadcast here that yes, buying and hodling a pithy amount of this bytecoin fork will allow you to buy a private island in Belize in 2-5 years. If you buy you will become soon the new wealthy elite, gentlement.. And yes you may not be able to find a single solitary purpose to holding this "currency" aside from buying a fleet of gulfstreams and a lifetime ski resort pass as there is not yet a single scrap of merchant adoption despite a year since inception and almost half fully mined.. but don't let that stop those like americanpegasus and rpietila who have nest-eggs overflowing with monero into encouraging you to gorge yourself on as much "cheap" xmr as possible. how many times we heard that before?

This is the Monero Speculation thread. In order to stay on topic you generally should display some modicum of an opinion as to what the price will do. There's basically three choices: up, down, stay the same. Here's my speculation: I think it will go up.

 with anonymity this currencies chief tenet (at this time quite a weak attraction as pretty much the only place to trade it- poloniex spectacularly  un-anonymous,  it's current sky-high inflation and many large holders concentrating wealth it doesn't seem anywhere near as groundbreaking as it's chief proponents try and insinuate.

Mainly troll-mode, so again, mainly ignoring. The only thing important to rebuke here is the issue of large holders concentrating wealth. At no point was there ever a premine, or instamine, or any other developer-orientated private/secret/nefarious attempt at wealth accumulation bias. Everyone has had, and indeed does have just as much opportunity to accumulate Monero as anyone else. AmericanPegasus - a relative newcomer who you earlier cited - owns less than 20k which was purchased on Poloniex a few weeks ago. You can't have it both ways: either there is a back-room conspiracy or there is the cacophony and noise of dealings laid out under the spotlight of the public arena. Which would you prefer?

I'm also sick of seeing this monero thread bumped to the front page of the altcoin discussion page by the same few posters. At last it's slightly more bearable than the 15 different monero threads but still almost every other altcoin sticks to the less trafficed altcoin announcement page

Democracy and Darwinism.

[legit_chocolateface]

Agreed on your points re: altcoins exhibiting self-advertising. The community isn't actually all that well populated though..it's largely the same few voices..sometimes making several low value posts  in quick succession that keeps this thread bumped.

My real issue is disingenuity..snake oil salesmen parroting potentialities as de facto prophecies guaranteed to unwind as they state ... cognitive biases running amok here that allows such statements to go unchallenged because it jives with the status quo hivemind here.. the thought process seems to be "we are amongst friends here and we all made the right decision by investing". "We can all see something nobody else can see and we will harvest plentifully as a result." "It is a fact we will become rich The rest stating negative words against  monero are trolls and or haters and or competing coin investors and or government employees keeping our coin down" via some mechanism

I mean look at this shit..

It's crazy to think about...  It sounds quite unfair, but I can't find any good reason why it won't be true:  we are going to buy as much Monero as possible right now and hold onto it (no margin games), and in ten years we are going to be obscenely wealthy.  

 

All we can do is try to build and work with the technology, help new users, and vow to be responsible stewards of a great amount of wealth.  
  
I know I get euphoric sometimes, but honestly even if I never said a word it would still happen.

Are you kidding me? He knows none of that, yet he's talking as if he's been to the future and back. That is a worthless post just like mine which was labelled a troll. Mine was labelled a troll because it's negative. His wasn't because is a motivational speech, that is a sales pitch. rallying the troops.   All I want is genuine worthwhile content here without lewd fantasies of surpassing the rothschildes wealth. There have been way too many unrealistic euphoric posts here in the past months that go unchecked. That's not symptomatic of a strong community

It's certainly not trollmode that one of the currencies underpinning selling points (anonymity) is in the here and now fairly fragmented for new entrants due to the limited markets for purchasing XMR. The main access point requires sacrificing proof of identity to a central authority. There are absolutely other avenues one could accumulate however for many less technical people that really does defeat the point.

Unless you work for poloniex or one of the agencies receiving it's collected data on it's clients you can't prove americanpegasus has more or less than 20k

[dEBRUYNE]

High supply inflation means that none of us really has any incentive to pump XMR.

I am aware of one notable exception to this general rule:  If you are aware of largish margined short positions, there is very little reason not to take their money.  In case you are unfamiliar with the process of running stops, it is as simple as placing a sell order just over the price at which margined positions are forced closed, and sweeping the market up to that price.  If you have the required data and do the math, it is as close as you can come to a guaranteed profit, and in a low cap market like this, it doesn't take much capital.  The down side to that is: As thin as the market is, there just isn't that much to be gained by it either;  I don't have the position info, but I do observe that the lend rates on XMR are miniscule, which means demand is quite low, which means positions are quite small, which means running stops just isn't going to net you a large win right now, limited as it is to a small fraction of the outstanding margined short position sizes.  What risk there is in the process comes from sellers on the side-lines dashing in to front-run your reaping order.

Great post, bit of an addition to this post. Margin trading was introduced on the 18th of May at 19:00 UTC and price was around 0.0025 at that moment, so we can reasonably conclude that the highest price one got to short was around 0.0025. Taking that into account, at worst all current short positions get a forced liquidation at 0.003 (Poloniex allows 1:2,5 margin, but uses maintenance margin, so a 20% move in the opposite direction will wipe out your short/long (more information can be obtained from -> https://poloniex.com/support/aboutMarginTrading)). Probably a lot of shorts were taken out lower than this, so they will get liquidated earlier. It would be nice if Poloniex introduced some swap data just like bfxdata.com, in that case we could see the amount of shorts and longs currently open.

@legit_chocolateface: The kind of posts you exhibited here in your post make me cringe a bit as well, but these posts are merely coming from a few people (since this is there personal character, there isn't much we can do about it). Most posters tend to stay rational though.  

[GingerAle]

( words )

I think mainly its for this purpose:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=qvaaGhfjrgs

The underdog has to constantly fight.

But I get your disdain over the "if someone posts exuberant 'we're going to the moon', its celebrated. If someone posts 'this is a pile of poop', its considered trolling". But there's a thread for that, apparently: https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=1067853.0

Have a field day.

I speculate the reason this thread gets bumped and there are perceived few voices that are doing it is due to the nature of the monero community. Some, like me, can't really contribute to code development - we're just so damn excited about Monero, and we're excited to find others that are excited about it. And so, yes, we like to communicate our excitement either because we've had so much caffeine or we're holding a little bag or we're dreaming of a day when our finances are as private as we want them to be and there are financial systems that are controlled by the people as opposed to some people.

Furthermore, the voluntary nature of the entire Monero project benefits from a feedback loop of support. And for better or worse, the market valuation of a thing could affect an individuals drive to make that thing better. I know - in my work, it sucks to be on a project that no one thinks is worth a damn - your own self motivation can only go so far sometimes - and sometimes in nice to have that little kick-in-the-butt from the external world - and here, that external kick-in-the-butt has a blatant manifestation in a market valuation. For some others (and good on them), this means nothing. True to point, you rarely see fluffypony in here. In fact, he has publicly stated somewhere that you should only buy monero if you plan on using it to make a transaction.

Additionally, the external-kick-in-the-butt comes from confirmation by others interest. Here and there I have witness new people coming into #monero-dev... they didn't find their way to monero dev because the threads on bitcointalk were quiet.

Finally, the voluntary nature of Monero means that we all have other obligations. Sometimes you don't have the time to create something of meaty substance, but you still want to say "hey look, stuffs happening. neat huh? what do you think?"

So, that is my speculation on the phenomenon, and I'm sorry that it annoys you. You have it in your power to ignore all of us and the thread will never appear bumped.

[Bassica]

legit_chocolateface = stslimited

Is it true?

[kazuki49]

The same story with many other altcoins. You seem to think this is that nobody is allowed to sell and rebuy or short..  They must just hold forever otherwise they are an enemy employed by evan duffield..

hey wait a minute, I never said nobody should not sell or hodl or buy moneroj, I have been cherishing dumps this entire time, what jehst said above is completely true, no one is interested in pumping Monero when you can accumulate just putting buy walls, I dont care that people think I'm a fanatic or not, its quite amusing that in their eyes we are somehow desperate random nobodies excited about this incredible new crypto (that so far nothing can beat) and are blind about its slim chances of actual success. I hold the reason of my intentions to myself but I can assure you its not getting rich on this.

[cAPSLOCK]

I dont know what is about Monero holders,  they alll seem to exhibit this strange sense of fanatical, zealous self-assuredness of it's undeniable superiority which just comes across a little to jehovas' witnessy to me. It's like watching a late night infomercial or reading one of these ebook self-improvement pitches..in this thread it's always laughing at the fools who dump.. (haha, nervous laughter) personally I dumped and brought back lower successfully many more times than I've been burned trying it so don't personally feel too much like a fool. Also everything is apparently an orchestrated attack against monero to keep it down.. THEY are trying and hold back this torrential waterfall that will be the monero success story.. The powers that be and the haters are pulling out every stop to contain this raging monero beast.. Yawn  

there is this unrelenting undercurrent being broadcast here that yes, buying and hodling a pithy amount of this bytecoin fork will allow you to buy a private island in Belize in 2-5 years. If you buy you will become soon the new wealthy elite, gentlement.. And yes you may not be able to find a single solitary purpose to holding this "currency" aside from buying a fleet of gulfstreams and a lifetime ski resort pass as there is not yet a single scrap of merchant adoption despite a year since inception and almost half fully mined.. but don't let that stop those like americanpegasus and rpietila who have nest-eggs overflowing with monero into encouraging you to gorge yourself on as much "cheap" xmr as possible. how many times we heard that before?

 with anonymity this currencies chief tenet (at this time quite a weak attraction as pretty much the only place to trade it- poloniex spectacularly  un-anonymous,  it's current sky-high inflation and many large holders concentrating wealth it doesn't seem anywhere near as groundbreaking as it's chief proponents try and insinuate.

I'm also sick of seeing this monero thread bumped to the front page of the altcoin discussion page by the same few posters. At last it's slightly more bearable than the 15 different monero threads but still almost every other altcoin sticks to the less trafficed altcoin announcement page

WRONG!  I don't ski.

[rpietila]

Monero attracts all kinds of people around it. We even had a self-confessed bankster agent joining our nightlife in Berlin! Think about that for a moment

[jehst]

High supply inflation means that none of us really has any incentive to pump XMR.

I am aware of one notable exception to this general rule:  If you are aware of largish margined short positions, there is very little reason not to take their money.  In case you are unfamiliar with the process of running stops, it is as simple as placing a sell order just over the price at which margined positions are forced closed, and sweeping the market up to that price.  If you have the required data and do the math, it is as close as you can come to a guaranteed profit, and in a low cap market like this, it doesn't take much capital.  The down side to that is: As thin as the market is, there just isn't that much to be gained by it either;  I don't have the position info, but I do observe that the lend rates on XMR are miniscule, which means demand is quite low, which means positions are quite small, which means running stops just isn't going to net you a large win right now, limited as it is to a small fraction of the outstanding margined short position sizes.  What risk there is in the process comes from sellers on the side-lines dashing in to front-run your reaping order.

I'd only try that strategy if I owned the exchange and could see the stops exactly.

[TrueCryptonaire]

Monero attracts all kinds of people around it. We even had a self-confessed bankster agent joining our nightlife in Berlin! Think about that for a moment

Even Nazis. 

[generalizethis]

Monero attracts all kinds of people around it. We even had a self-confessed bankster agent joining our nightlife in Berlin! Think about that for a moment

Even Nazis. 

Libertarians, communist, and transhumanist, Oh My!

Personally I'm a Deluezean capitalist, pre-AI singularity poet, and lover of fine women--you can add them to the list if you want. But back on topic: the price seems to slide when the buys drop below 300btc and the sell above 200k. I'm amazed how much gets eaten by the market without the day to day going wild.

[TrueCryptonaire]

Monero attracts all kinds of people around it. We even had a self-confessed bankster agent joining our nightlife in Berlin! Think about that for a moment

Even Nazis. 

Libertarians, communist, and transhumanist, Oh My!

Personally I'm a Deluezean capitalist, pre-AI singularity poet, and lover of fine women--you can add them to the list if you want. But back on topic: the price seems to slide when the buys drop below 300btc and the sell above 200k. I'm amazed how much gets eaten by the market without the day to day going wild.

Price is definetely going to down.
I wouldn't be surprised even if we reach new lows at the end of the trend and stay at those lows for a while.
I am not interested in buying Monero at this point of time since it is too expensive and it has no interesting risk/reward ratio right now.
I am not sure if it will be interesting at 0.001 but at least it is less rebarbative than the current 0.0018-0.002 level.

[(Lithium)]

Monero attracts all kinds of people around it. We even had a self-confessed bankster agent joining our nightlife in Berlin! Think about that for a moment

Even Nazis.  

Even criminals and KGB agents.

[Anon136]

Monero attracts all kinds of people around it. We even had a self-confessed bankster agent joining our nightlife in Berlin! Think about that for a moment

Even Nazis.  

Libertarians, communist, and transhumanist, Oh My!

Personally I'm a Deluezean capitalist, pre-AI singularity poet, and lover of fine women--you can add them to the list if you want. But back on topic: the price seems to slide when the buys drop below 300btc and the sell above 200k. I'm amazed how much gets eaten by the market without the day to day going wild.

Price is definetely going to down.
I wouldn't be surprised even if we reach new lows at the end of the trend and stay at those lows for a while.
I am not interested in buying Monero at this point of time since it is too expensive and it has no interesting risk/reward ratio right now.
I am not sure if it will be interesting at 0.001 but at least it is less rebarbative than the current 0.0018-0.002 level.

The day someone as perpetually bearish as you buys in, do let me know, ill double down on that day.