[XMR] Monero Speculation

[Anon136]

IT is time for another round of "Lets watch the RETARD".

https://vid.me/ima7

thanks for posting it, I really enjoyed making this: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2ofpaF5pkE8  

This my friend deserves a tip!

(The address you posted on Youtube doesn't seem to be valid  )

Worked for me.

[KLONE]

This is compared to if CKG or moneritos was really pegged to XMR, ie. there's a way to trade it back from the king/devs, then X can pretty much stay constant (minus a % fee for the developers), then your property/CKG/moneritos etc will be able to keep their value.

If you weren't aware, moneritos are pegged to XRM; 1 XRM = 1,000,000 moneritos. The price of gold in-game is fluctuating all the time. If you were to buy gold in-game with your in-game assets, you could then transfer it out of the game into monero.  

They're pegged one-way, which is meaningless. You can't trade out your moneritos.

It's like a game where say a cash shop item costs $15, so the dev says it's worth $15, and proceeds to create 100,000,000 of them, and then says his account is now worth $1.5 Billion.

No one has said anything is worth $1.5 billion so you are trolling here.

There's no moneritos in the game that are created out of thin air afaik.

Are you serious? After everything I've typed, all you can do is ad hominem and red herring? Dude, I said it's LIKE A GAME, that's an example, an example to show a point. I didn't say someone claimed this particular game is worth 1.5 billion.

Seriously, it's unnatural how you guys are pretending not to understand this. It's really suspicious. I'm done explaining, I think any intelligent person can make their own decision on this. Unless you guys come up with genuine reasons and points where I am wrong, instead of using obvious red herrings and ad hominem, I'm done.

I wasn't trying to attack you just understand what you are saying. Can you explain better?

I think CryptoKingdom needs its own 'discussion' thread separate from the main CK thread, and separate from the main monero ones. I don't want to clog up the CK thread with more 'speculation' on the CK economics, but it is VERY interesting to discuss, and probably one of the most promising 'killer' apps' for crypto (i.e. gaming). After drugs, porn etc, gaming seems like the most obvious growth market, and CK is a pioneer, and the economics inside CK are 'real' in a sense, and so deserving of serious discussion.

Previously I had doubts that 1000 XMR invested in CK property could ever outperform 1000 XMR in a wallet (CKG is another story), but now I am unsure. If CK property ever pays rent or dividends, then through compounding the 1000 XMR invested in property *might* end up outperforming wallet XMR. My initial reservation was due to XMR being locked inside Ck (i.e. no withdrawals), but if one assumes CK will thrive and prosper, and players can freely buy/sell property, then CK property becomes just another digital asset and store of value, similar to bitcoin, but unlike other PoW coins, XMR invested in CK property *might* earn interest or dividends, almost like PoS. I don't know if that is planned, but it would change the equation some what.

CK needs a speculation/discussion thread!

[vokain]

CK needs a speculation/discussion thread!

No one's stopping you.

[aminorex]

IT is time for another round of "Lets watch the RETARD".

https://vid.me/ima7

thanks for posting it, I really enjoyed making this: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2ofpaF5pkE8  

This my friend deserves a tip!

(The address you posted on Youtube doesn't seem to be valid  )

Worked for me.

Definitely worth a tip.  Must not forget to replenish promptly.  You snooze, you loose in this game.

[lyth0s]

Market depth on the buy side is still much larger than the ask side. 360BTC to 0.002, 160 BTC to reach 0.004 . We have had pretty good steady increase in price and without any major events I don't see this trend stopping anytime soon.

[Anon136]

Market depth on the buy side is still much larger than the ask side. 360BTC to 0.002, 160 BTC to reach 0.004 . We have had pretty good steady increase in price and without any major events I don't see this trend stopping anytime soon.

no me either. im usually a value oriented investor but i couldn't help but try to play this trend. maybe it will help to put me back in my place.

[KLONE]

CK needs a speculation/discussion thread!

No one's stopping you.

Sure, I might do that if none of the CK heavy hitters do, but I think a thread started by me would generate less interest. Discussion threads work best when fud & excessive bullshit gets deleted, and I might not be the best person to start a CK moderated thread.

[vokain]

CK needs a speculation/discussion thread!

No one's stopping you [but you].

Sure, I might do that if none of the CK heavy hitters do, but I think a thread started by me would generate less interest. Discussion threads work best when fud & excessive bullshit gets deleted, and I might not be the best person to start a CK moderated thread.

...but you could. Discussion threads work best if they get started :p

[orinoco]

Can't wait until the database version of the daemon is released - I've just resumed sync using an older copy of my blockchain from another machine, and bitmonerod is using 5.7G of memory to hold the blockchain.

[smooth]

Can't wait until the database version of the daemon is released - I've just resumed sync using an older copy of my blockchain from another machine, and bitmonerod is using 5.7G of memory to hold the blockchain.

It can run in somewhat less, but the database is working fairly well if you are able to build it from source. Any testing is very much appreciated. There is even a converter that takes the existing blockchain you have and loads it into the DB so you don't have to resync. 

[futureofbitcoin]

I think CryptoKingdom needs its own 'discussion' thread separate from the main CK thread, and separate from the main monero ones. I don't want to clog up the CK thread with more 'speculation' on the CK economics, but it is VERY interesting to discuss, and probably one of the most promising 'killer' apps' for crypto (i.e. gaming). After drugs, porn etc, gaming seems like the most obvious growth market, and CK is a pioneer, and the economics inside CK are 'real' in a sense, and so deserving of serious discussion.

Previously I had doubts that 1000 XMR invested in CK property could ever outperform 1000 XMR in a wallet (CKG is another story), but now I am unsure. If CK property ever pays rent or dividends, then through compounding the 1000 XMR invested in property *might* end up outperforming wallet XMR. My initial reservation was due to XMR being locked inside Ck (i.e. no withdrawals), but if one assumes CK will thrive and prosper, and players can freely buy/sell property, then CK property becomes just another digital asset and store of value, similar to bitcoin, but unlike other PoW coins, XMR invested in CK property *might* earn interest or dividends, almost like PoS. I don't know if that is planned, but it would change the equation some what.

CK needs a speculation/discussion thread!

As I'm even less qualified to start a CKG  speculation thread, so I'll just make one last post here, because i really wanted to respond to this post. While I was arguing about this earlier, I had to think of all of this as well, and I concluded that it's simply not sustainable.

land, etc, *might* be worth more now than they were when the game started. But that is temporary. YOu need many new players to feed this kind of a growth, i.e it's ponzi-like. Once the number of new players bringing in new money is less than a certain amount, the value of in game items will necessarily grow slower, stop growing completely, or even lose value. It's not exactly a ponzi-scam though, because it's a game; it's not supposed to give you profit. Very early-adopters might make some, but they are pretty much the only ones.

The game will only receive a total of X amount of currency in its lifetime, and that money will all slowly go to the main game content issuer, i.e the king. The money circulating in the game will necessarily decrease from X, until it reaches 0, unless this game continues forever, which is quite doubtful.

You are right, I also compared CKG to just another digital property, but it's not like bitcoin, it's more like Ripple, with a great insta-mine in fact, unless the game competely takes off (say 1 million players, quite doubtful), the insta-mine will be 99.99...% of the total supply for the forseeable future.  In a sense, it's funny how people are so suspicious of darkcoin's "insta-mine" but support CK so much.

For me, I'm not necessarily against insta-mine. Devs deserve to be rewarded for their efforts. But I think we need to recognize accurately what something is, and not be deceived into thinking it's something different.

[smooth]

You are right, I also compared CKG to just another digital property, but it's not like bitcoin, it's more like Ripple, with a great insta-mine in fact, unless the game competely takes off (say 1 million players, quite doubtful), the insta-mine will be 99.99...% of the total supply for the forseeable future.  In a sense, it's funny how people are so suspicious of darkcoin's "insta-mine" but support CK so much.

For me, I'm not necessarily against insta-mine. Devs deserve to be rewarded for their efforts. But I think we need to recognize accurately what something is, and not be deceived into thinking it's something different.

I'm not against that either. The difference is that CKG with its "instamine" (premine really) isn't even trying to be a distributed cryptocurrency, it is explicitly a token, and everything was disclosed with no apparent underhandedness or manipulation. I can't say the same think about darkcoin/dash at all.

As far as the economics of the game itself, I think you are right in a sense and wrong in a sense. Yes money will flow to the operators/developers so it is negative sum in that way but I look at it as being something like online poker in that skillful play may be able to overcome that and come out ahead, possibly far ahead (there are people who have made around 10 million USD or more playing online poker). Of course the skill is somewhat less structured and mechanical and more social than online poker; the analogy is intentionally loose.

You are 100% right that profits are unlikely (and the game will probably just die) if it doesn't grow to a significant player base. Some games like it have grown large, and it is unique in some ways, so I give it a shot. I can't put a number on that.

[aminorex]

Or it could render real life obsolete.  Talk about disproportionate rewards for early adopters!  Hey, sounds like Mormonism...

[TrueCryptonaire]

I really hope XMR will make a bedrock strong support at 0.0032 which is the previous resistance just around BTCX fear mongering.

[Its About Sharing]

I really hope XMR will make a bedrock strong support at 0.0032 which is the previous resistance just around BTCX fear mongering.

I think the Emission rate is going to play a larger and larger role in support. It takes around 48BTC a day to buy the roughly 16,000 XMR "produced" daily.
That is small fry and we know there are whales acquiring Monero. I do think many early adopters of BTC are looking for a place to put some of their BTC,
a bit as a hedge. Then there are the dark markets looking at anonymous coins as well.

When we look at the the previous resistance/support, yes, it occurred at current levels but it was months ago, and due to the emission constantly decreasing,
I think it gets easier and easier to support a coin. I'm just looking at the math, add to that rising interesting and T-10, T-9...

Because of where XMR is right now (Price is low, Emission is decreasing, interest rising, etc.) I do think the near future looks bright and most certainly,
Extremely Interesting.

Its About Sharing

[aminorex]

I really hope XMR will make a bedrock strong support at 0.0032 which is the previous resistance just around BTCX fear mongering.

The greed impulse and FOMO make that unlikely.  I can't really visualize so many people just sitting on their hands such that less than 15kUSD daily of emission suffices (after hoard-mining) to meet demand.  Animal spirits will chew up all of that and more.

I could imagine some appalling impulse of extreme folly resulting in a large dump, as seen on TV, and spiking us down to 0016 or so for probably a very brief time.  But imagining XMR under a dollar in two successive calendar months?  That requires a more willing suspension of profound disbelief than I can muster.

Just my gut here, but I think 2USD before Dominion Day,  4USD by Boxing Day.   ( I seem to have swallowed a Canadian.)

[TrueCryptonaire]

I really hope XMR will make a bedrock strong support at 0.0032 which is the previous resistance just around BTCX fear mongering.

The greed impulse and FOMO make that unlikely.  I can't really visualize so many people just sitting on their hands such that less than 15kUSD daily of emission suffices (after hoard-mining) to meet demand.  Animal spirits will chew up all of that and more.

I could imagine some appalling impulse of extreme folly resulting in a large dump, as seen on TV, and spiking us down to 0016 or so for probably a very brief time.  But imagining XMR under a dollar in two successive calendar months?  That requires a more willing suspension of profound disbelief than I can muster.

Just my gut here, but I think 2USD before Dominion Day,  4USD by Boxing Day.   ( I seem to have swallowed a Canadian.)

If it dumps briefly as low as 0.0016 I will support the price. I have some coins in storage waiting from the heavenly rain.
I think there is not real dumping at 4 usd.
I do not recommend selling any coins before there is massive adaption from noobs that needs coins. We are holding coins for them so when they enter to the markets, I am ready to sell 10-20 xmr to them. 

[Its About Sharing]

I really hope XMR will make a bedrock strong support at 0.0032 which is the previous resistance just around BTCX fear mongering.

The greed impulse and FOMO make that unlikely.  I can't really visualize so many people just sitting on their hands such that less than 15kUSD daily of emission suffices (after hoard-mining) to meet demand.  Animal spirits will chew up all of that and more.

I could imagine some appalling impulse of extreme folly resulting in a large dump, as seen on TV, and spiking us down to 0016 or so for probably a very brief time.  But imagining XMR under a dollar in two successive calendar months?  That requires a more willing suspension of profound disbelief than I can muster.

Just my gut here, but I think 2USD before Dominion Day,  4USD by Boxing Day.   ( I seem to have swallowed a Canadian.)

Do you really think people "view" XMR in terms of USD? I mostly look at the BTC ratio, probably as that is the only way to get in. (I think)
I do think, eventually, Alts will detach from the BTC ratio (once USD are easy to convert DIRECTLY to alts.)

IAS

[aminorex]

Do you really think people "view" XMR in terms of USD? I mostly look at the BTC ratio, probably as that is the only way to get in. (I think)
I do think, eventually, Alts will detach from the BTC ratio (once USD are easy to convert DIRECTLY to alts.)

IAS

Definitely as you say, in BTC terms, but more so speculators, and with the first exception being miners with electrical and amortization of hardware.  I was using USD because I think BTC goes up as well, and using a ruler moving at an independently varying relativistic velocity makes natural language communication taxing.

[aminorex]

If it dumps briefly as low as 0.0016 I will support the price.

Just so you know, I will seek to front-run your effort in such an event;)

We are holding coins for them so when they enter to the markets, I am ready to sell 10-20 xmr to them. 

Very true.  It is actually a valuable service to them, albeit unlikely to be recognized, except by financial reward.

But! By far the greater reward will come from the direct usability of our remaining hoards, as a robust, productive and stable xmr economy develops.  Thus I prefer to emphasize that vision (and it requires a lot of work, and hence a lot of vision).