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1141  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: August 29, 2022, 08:20:21 PM
Fed Plans 2023 Launch of Long-Anticipated Faster Payments System.

Quote
The Federal Reserve is set to launch a long-awaited faster payments system by next summer, a step that officials say will modernize an outmoded infrastructure and ensure that near-instant payments become widely available.

The new system would allow bill payments, paychecks and other common consumer or business transfers to be available quickly and round-the-clock, a change from an existing system that is closed on weekends and can at times take several days before funds become available. Last year, those older rails handled more than 29 billion payments, valued at close to $73 trillion.

this is how Corleone family "soldier" explain "buffers" aka "rails".
https://youtu.be/0EWcPlq2YIk?t=60

the new "system" is the same as the old one or maybe even worse...lotsa "buffers".
1142  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: August 29, 2022, 12:36:42 AM

Agree. Put your money where your mouth is.

Already left trading after making 17k from one single trade ($31k to $22k SHORT).
https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=178336.msg60375239#msg60375239

I don't want to short it but I am holding my Fiat to buy the actual dip. <3
Why not we just wait and watch? or you have Your opinion and LONG IT X20?
Or maybe you don't have any opinion because you don't know what the F is going on in the market? sounds like it.

Good for you!  But personally I don't care what you do with your money, or how many peanuts you get pushing buttons in front of a monitor.

There are many people in the WO who went long, when you were still in high school age (according to your bio).


Over all these years, there were many analysts and traders posting predictions and models getting it right again and again.  For a time they looked like geniuses...  until their "lucky streak" ended and everybody started turning their back on them..  It was always just a matter of time... (check out planB, masterluke and all their predecessors)
I don't think you are any more special  ...assuming you could even hold a candle to one of them.

tl;dr
If you were a little more humble conveying your predictions, your posts would be far more enjoyable. (in addition you could easily avoid looking like a big ego know-it-all)

I enjoyed your AI images btw






probably just some young lad who is simply sharing.
Made 17K on a trade-good for him, right  Wink

tl;dr
If you were a little more humble conveying your predictions, your posts would be far more enjoyable. (in addition you could easily avoid looking like a big ego know-it-all)

I mean I got a style, if it looks egoistic to you, it is. You getting it right mate.

Quote
I enjoyed your AI images btw

Thanks! Smiley

it's OK to be cocky around here if the content is right...usually (apart from a couple of notable exceptions) it takes years to establish that...js
1143  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: August 28, 2022, 12:02:20 AM
We're probably going to remain stuck between $15k-$30k for a few years now; just SOMA™ prediction though.

Maybe for 18 months, yes. The next halving is estimated April 2024, I expect us to be around $40,000 then & then obviously the next bull begins as we peak at something like $200,000 in late 2025.

Nobody should be under any illusion though, we are absolutely 100% in a bear market now. Should last another 18 or so months.

Cheap coins are a gift, boys. Don’t waste the opportunity that the next 18 months brings you.

Merited, but $40K at the halving-yes, 170K-200K at the peak-yes, 18 mo-not it my opinion, albeit if you mean reaching back to 69K, then, yes.
If you mean "just" 15K-30K for 18mo, I would respectfully disagree, although it depends on stonks.
If stonks manage a bull (maybe amid mildly falling rates in the second half of 2023), then we might have a premature "pop" to much higher 40-50K way before halving, but $40K at halving seems very possible.
1144  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: August 27, 2022, 07:02:06 PM
Back under 20K.

Inflation hedge my ass.

 Roll Eyes

Over long time, maybe.
On the other hand, it is still not clear what bitcoin is over the long time horizon (because it is only 13 years old, basically a teen).
The only thing I know: it is better than what came before it (fiat).
Good enough for me.
1145  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: August 26, 2022, 07:29:04 PM
Dow -869 rn, 33 min to go  Sad

This week. Eneco, the largest Dutch energy supplier is going to pay people 0,09 Euro per generated KWh from solar panels sold back into the grid, instead of the previous rate of 0,30 Euro. How can this happen during a time when energy should be getting more valuable?

It seems to demonstrate governments and energy companies are completely in an arranged marriage and to screw over the little guy as much as possible and not care AT ALL about the planet and its resources also.

https://www.dutchnews.nl/news/2022/08/eneco-to-slash-price-for-solar-panel-buyback/

I never expected otherwise, sorry.
1146  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: August 26, 2022, 07:21:02 PM
UK energy price “cap” goes up by 80% to over £3,500 per year and BTC does nothing.

If Saylor is right about BTC being a store of energy surely it should move up significantly with all these inflated costs around the world.

Energy bills to soar for millions as price cap hiked to £3,549
https://news.sky.com/story/energy-bills-to-soar-for-millions-as-price-cap-hiked-to-3-549-12681213

Who pays if your bill is higher?
Gov to company or gov to you (later on)?
It must be a UK "thing", specifically, no such "cap" in US (to my knowledge).
1147  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: August 24, 2022, 04:46:36 AM
Most people expect some student loan cancellation tomorrow.
Imho, almost everyone would get mad. Some because they don't want anything cancelled, some because they still have a ton after subtracting $10K.
$10K is probably a small part of a typical private (or even public) university student loan situation.
Unfair!?
See what monkeys do in this situation:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-KSryJXDpZo
TL;DV: they get upset

Perhaps, DXY would drop and bitcoin would rally, though...at least this is what I would expect, but markets lately do crazy moves.
1148  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: August 21, 2022, 12:11:24 AM
Is it WAR Observer or Wall Observer here ?

 Well for those native Japanese speakers among us, it could go either way.

edit: https://youtu.be/F4MsJHn-lRA?t=162 leery

Now I know it is not an issue with pronunciation, but rather of hearing.

Huh.

Somethin.

healing?  Cheesy
1149  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: August 20, 2022, 05:23:36 PM
I expect a decline first to 18 thousand dollars and then to 13 thousand dollars within 1 month. I think the market should be looking at these prices as well, especially for the next bull. I think that would be the healthiest thing. It's just an idea. It's not a sure thing, of course.

This opinion (13) is so common and was repeated by "influencers" and crypto twitter so many times, that, imho, it most certainly won't happen (as a bottom).
However, I don't have a prediction. There are too many moving parts. Someone else (Bitcoin Bunny?) had a valid point about retail, especially in Europe, having NO money left after heating, transportation and food. That might (or should) affect bitcoin trajectory.

My electricity just went from 11 to 15.6 c/kwh (a 42% increase)...I can handle it, but it is a $400-500 monthly bill during summer. Natural gas is also up, but not as catastrophically as in Europe for clear reasons.

On a bigger picture: is the economy on the precipice of something nasty? At the moment, i don't think so...or at least not yet.
1150  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: August 20, 2022, 12:04:00 AM
OT: Not sure if it it is real or a joke...a tech that allows a cat to enter the house, but does not allow it to go through the "cat door" if it also carries a 'gift' (a mouse, etc).
it's called .....OnlyCat (apparently it is being crowdfunded).

https://www.studyfinds.org/onlycat-flap-martin-rosinski-transmission-dynamics/
1151  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: August 18, 2022, 10:36:56 PM
I was once going camping for a weekend so decided to grab enough burger King to last the weekend but didn't want it to get all soggy in the cooler like they do.

So I told the counter person to give me 10 Whoppers unmade and she said I can't do that.

After a fruitless argument I told her to get the manager.

The manager said the same thing and no amount of explaining it didn't matter if it was made or not i'm buyying the same thing.

The manager also refused to budge until I said "I WANT IT MY WAY!".

The manager acquiesced.

True story, glad I remembered that catch phrase.

Whoppers on a bonfire were damn good. Cheesy


Yea, sometimes there are some key words that work magic.
Here is another situation: city made a mess in my backyard (some repair in the easement zone) and then said that they cannot find the right pavers to finish the job.
Calling and writing did nothing for months, until some kind soul said that we should complain about an "uneven pavement".
These two words did their magic and everything was fixed within a couple of weeks afterwards (they found the proper pavers in Mexico somehow).
1152  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: August 18, 2022, 08:57:51 PM

Source
Really A picture Hold 2 Sides
Now Just a single step is going to decide where it is going to end.
Choose Careful the way to freedom is not easy always remember hardships decide whats you future is gonna be.
Im sure sooner / later we are going to understand it but remember there is no turn back so don't ruin your time decide what you want by #Bitcoin

modern man: which one has a better Tik tok content?
1153  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: August 18, 2022, 08:45:40 PM
Tick tock, another Block:


Saw your tweet first before this post and I was like what?Who's copying your posts on twitter? :p

Anyway from this beautiful block#750,000 I can conclude and if I remember correctly height is stored in unsigned 32 bit int, which puts max height to be 4,294,967,295.  Now this means "sooner" we will be running out of the space to store the height.

Since blocks are generated every 10 minutes, 750,000 already done so the remaining 4294217295 blocks will be generated within the next ~8170 years.

So guys note down by 10192 AD, bitcoin won't be generating any more blocks so make your plans accordingly.


I hate to be a "correcting" Nancy, but the last block is projected to occur at around 2140 (you save about 8 thou years of waiting  Cheesy).
https://en.bitcoin.it/wiki/Controlled_supply

Forgive me but 2140 is not the time for the last block to be produced but for the block reward to reach ~0… however bitcoin transactions will keep coming and blocks will be getting produced too.



you are right, i was talking about block rewards. however, an absolute limit of 8K extra years?
Looking from here, it is enough, but it is certainly very far from "infinity".
I am surprised that Satoshi set it up with a 8K years cap. If true, it is almost never discussed.
Therefore, providing that the estimate is correct, bitcoin contains within itself a paradox of a limited blocks space, necessitating a significant update later on (if civilization would exist that long).
Hmmmm...this goes a little bit against the presumption of the unchanging nature of bitcoin.
On the other hand, it is not a problem that 99.999% would be concerned about for a "while".
1154  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: August 18, 2022, 08:30:37 PM
Tick tock, another Block:


Saw your tweet first before this post and I was like what?Who's copying your posts on twitter? :p

Anyway from this beautiful block#750,000 I can conclude and if I remember correctly height is stored in unsigned 32 bit int, which puts max height to be 4,294,967,295.  Now this means "sooner" we will be running out of the space to store the height.

Since blocks are generated every 10 minutes, 750,000 already done so the remaining 4294217295 blocks will be generated within the next ~8170 years.

So guys note down by 10192 AD, bitcoin won't be generating any more blocks so make your plans accordingly.




I hate to be a "correcting" Nancy, but the last block (EDIT: with any block reward) is projected to occur at around 2140 (you save about 8 thou years of waiting  Cheesy).
https://en.bitcoin.it/wiki/Controlled_supply
1155  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: August 15, 2022, 05:35:23 PM
This is very interesting comparison of bitcoin price verses addresses holding more then 10k$ worth of bitcoin.
You can see when price of bitcoin touched 69k$ on 11 Nov 2021, the addresses have gone done. That means Whales were in selling mood at that time. Now as price has gone down, whales are once again accumulating bitcoins.
Key Takeaway: whales are called whales because of this reason.

My few satoshis that I extracted from this graph.



Image source

You and the twitter guy both seem to misinterpret the graph.
It is not the graph of people with more than $10K in a wallet, it is a graph of wallets with more than 10K bitcoin.
Naturally, as the total number of bitcoin got mined from 0% to 90%, the number of such wallets should rise in the graph just like that.
Additionally, one can conclude that large whales were selling/distributing bitcoin since 2016.
Their slice of the pie is melting, which is a natural progression as well, correlating with an exponential increase in wallets containing 0.1-1 btc (shown in prior discussions and here: https://coingape.com/retail-bitcoin-holders-with-balance-0-01-0-1-btc-reaches-new-high/).
some additional stats are here (check the references as well):
https://bitcoinist.com/how-many-people-actually-have-at-least-1-bitcoin/

Here is what I have to say on this matter.
The graph says "number of addresses with balance >10k" vs "bitcoin price". It doesnt matter how many bitcoin wallet has, a wallet will be counted as long as it has more then balance of 10k. For instance, if wallet has 0.42 bitcoins or more then its counted, as 0.42 bitcoin equals 10,000$ (as of today). On same ground, on 19 Nov 2021 when price of bitcoin was at 69K then those address that have 0.14 or more bitcoins will be included in that graph as on that day 0.14 bitcoins equals 10,000$.

https://coingape.com/retail-bitcoin-holders-with-balance-0-01-0-1-btc-reaches-new-high/
Data here is about wallets having balance in terms of bitcoins i.e. 0.01 - 0.1 and its prior to June 2021. So we don't have data about how things were when Bitcoin was at its ATH (19 Nov 2021) versus current rate.

I tried to find that myself on glassnode but since I don't have a premium account, I get access to data till 14 August 2021 not latest one.
Again just my few cents that I extracted from my little research. Suggestions / Corrections are welcome.  


On the left is the number of wallets...on the right is the price.
Does the number 100, 60, 40...say anything.? Of course it does..it says that they are talking about the number of wallets with >10K bitcoins (not $$).
Do you think that there are only about 100 wallets with more than $10K?
Of course, not, there are probably about a million of such wallets according to https://bitinfocharts.com/top-100-richest-bitcoin-addresses.html
1156  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: August 15, 2022, 04:14:18 PM
An interesting read:

https://nymag.com/intelligencer/article/three-arrows-capital-kyle-davies-su-zhu-crash.html

Quote
“I suspect they might be 80 percent of the total original contagion,” says Sam Bankman-Fried

Exaaactly..the whole bear was suspiciously swift coming from the no-blowoff situation.
There was a blowoff, but it was located in a large part in this fund (plus Celsius).
Small bitcoin wallets had no bear market features whatsoever (as far as growth in accounts).
One possible conclusion is that the recovery might be swifter than in 2014-2015.
1157  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: August 15, 2022, 02:28:29 AM
why there is something
instead of nothing at all?
nothing always noths


# haiku
1158  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: August 15, 2022, 02:21:17 AM
I am typically more optimistic when the majority are pessimistic and pessimistic during the rah-rah stages.
It usually served me well, but it cannot predict the absolute top and bottom, though.
The trends could also take longer to play in time, not only levels, which typically kills long options trades (even if you guess right on direction).
1159  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: August 14, 2022, 08:51:01 PM
OT

English Premier Ligue...wtf is going on in there?
https://youtu.be/0RiGydlyTcM?t=509
and then, the same two "characters":
https://youtu.be/0RiGydlyTcM?t=869

bizarro...did we all got infected with an "angry" virus?
I see it every day on H-town highways.
1160  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: August 14, 2022, 07:51:39 PM
This is very interesting comparison of bitcoin price verses addresses holding more then 10k$ worth of bitcoin.
You can see when price of bitcoin touched 69k$ on 11 Nov 2021, the addresses have gone done. That means Whales were in selling mood at that time. Now as price has gone down, whales are once again accumulating bitcoins.
Key Takeaway: whales are called whales because of this reason.

My few satoshis that I extracted from this graph.



Image source

You and the twitter guy both seem to misinterpret the graph.
It is not the graph of people with more than $10K in a wallet, it is a graph of wallets with more than 10K bitcoin.
Naturally, as the total number of bitcoin got mined from 0% to 90%, the number of such wallets should rise in the graph just like that.
Additionally, one can conclude that large whales were selling/distributing bitcoin since 2016.
Their slice of the pie is melting, which is a natural progression as well, correlating with an exponential increase in wallets containing 0.1-1 btc (shown in prior discussions and here: https://coingape.com/retail-bitcoin-holders-with-balance-0-01-0-1-btc-reaches-new-high/).
some additional stats are here (check the references as well):
https://bitcoinist.com/how-many-people-actually-have-at-least-1-bitcoin/
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