here's another picture sighting the bullrun on the 5th times about bitcoin price, but i think we are getting closer than expected.
Every time I expect a bull run after seeing those graphs. The market denies it. We are up 39% from the low...how is that "denies it"? Twitter and pundits 'hate' this bull run, that's true. A gazillion of 'a new leg down to $13-14K" opinions. Maybe you mistake their voice for the 'market opinion'? $200K price is as good as any. Imho, it will be $110K-240K based on multiple scenarios and calculations (shown elsewhere). Personally, I am probably selling at least 20% in 2025, no matter what the price is (hopefully, would catch the peak within 20-30%). |
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hmmm...where are the 'funnies' here?  |
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You guys ready for the big race of bitcoin ownership?
...The smartest ones have realized they cant make paper out of it. That is deadly. The game has changed.
The dumb ones will still try ... and go broke to the smart ones.
Are you ready?
I don't think so. Me either really...
In bold: that is, indeed, a salient point. However, most of US citizens are used to banks (and brokerages) having their cash. Technically, once they have it, it' s their liability (at least in case of cash). Assuming that banks (or similar org) would have to be involved (for now, i don't believe that there would be billions of accounts directly on ledger/trezor), then HOW we can both have a "your coin" situation, but yet have some economic activity directly sponsored by your btc (otherwise it's just a store of value like gold and pretty much nothing else)? Perhaps, it will be all phone wallet based with borrowing that includes direct collateral. Like: "you want to borrow $1 mil of my bitcoin, then give me $1 mil of stable collateral plus 5% yearly divvy". For once, i think that fractional reserve practice would seize to exist at some point, driven in part by the desire of SLOWER (more sustainable) economic growth. TL;DR Celcius and Voyager taught us NOT to release our keys to a third party, but how to organize lending WITHOUT giving your key to a third party is a challenge. |
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OT, but i am curious to what the value of POW fork of VB coin would be.
People estimate 3-10% (IOU is currently about 4%).
I vaguely remember that bitcoin fork was initially about $440 when btc was $2756 (16%) and about 20% at max in December 2017 (3900 vs 19200).
I am deeply suspicious of all non-POW coins, but it would be an interesting test, albeit Defi and USDC/tether might lean against the POW for cough-eth-cough.
Ready to observe the happenings with much interest.
Why interest: 'cause i am sick and tired listening to verbiage against bitcoin as a "user" of energy.
BTW, anything worth doing uses energy, but don't tell this to the ESG crowd.
This could be tradable, yo.
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A simple thesis:
A 'premature' top (at 69K) suggests less downside (aka 17.6K at minus 74-75%) as the bottom.
I am not sure whether this 'mild' cycle suggests that the next one would be even milder or more ferocious (on both upside and downside).
I am 55/45 on this, but if milder still next time, then next top would be somewhere at 84K and next bottom at $29.6K.
Seems a bit lower from what I expected, so maybe cycle being even milder would not be in the cards.
If the same params as the last one, then 240K top and 60K-96.8K bottom (this seems a bit optimistic from here and now).
Honestly, i think that the price of btc at the halving should be a signal to where the top might be.
many people predict 40K at the halving and if so, $240K seems doable.
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All those "last selfies" are ABSOLUTE crap, imho.
A bit tired of all that f-en blood and gore.
I would rather see a universe a la Star trek then something out of Dante's circles.
Sorry, but not sorry for some optimism.
That..and the "Terminal list" is questionable too.
Spoiler alert:
The dude kills at least a dozen of security contractors to get to his "justified target" and it was apparently cool by the writers of the 'flick".
Are they simply NPCs? Did not matter because they were paid for the job?
What kind of perversion is that?
Shows something dark in the american psyche, imho.
It's no "Three days of the Condor", which was a very good movie made in mid seventies and has some similarities, but by no means parallel.
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Just IN:— US military aircraft SPAR19, carrying Nancy Pelosi, has now landed in Taipei, Taiwan.
China's Su-35 fighter jets are crossing the Taiwan Straits.
as a late night dream....I picture Bob's avatar (mohawk and all) flying through the air equipped with a high quality machete screaming something undecipherable (probably something about everybody not having done a proper ballz exercise with the titanium plates for this occasion). relax...nobody would do anything...it's all for show. |
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Returned from a week vacation in Zeeland. Hired a condo near the North Sea. Barely used the internet during that time. Fishing, beach walks (with dogs), boat trip, quality conversations with a glass of wine in the evening and -what i loved- jogging on the beach early in the morning. Empathizing with nature environment cleared my mind from daily bullshit, it has positive cognitive and mental health benefits. It's actually a personal obligation for all people to do that few times a year. ------------------------------------------------ Hubble vs Webb Cartwheel Galaxy.  At this scale and resolution, the images are both the same, just that the reddish pic at the end of the morph shows more h-alpha content (distant nebulas and galaxies) in foreground and background. Or was it some kind of joke i didn't get? no, bluish is Hubble, reddish is Webb, imho. one image "transforms" into another. basically, interstellar dust absorbs UV and visible light, but does not absorb infrared, hence Webb's ability to "see through" better than Hubble in red/infrared. I wonder if Webb could look at the Milky Way "arch". It should look quite different from what we used to, imho. Not sure if it could take such panoramic view, though. |
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In my honest opinion, Bitcoin Bottom is already in. And if it's not yet, then there will be so much blood bath.
$30-$31k is a very critical spot to look at.  That is the most depressing thing I have seen all week. Nope, it's just an abritrary wriggly line indicating someone's opinion (which are dime and dozen on trading view). can it happen? sure. What is the chance? If everything is approximately how it is now, then 1% or less. If macro goes to s-t, then it is possible, but then EVERYTHING is possible. What I see, I post. I saw Bitcoin going from $48k to $22k, I posted. Now I am saying Bitcoin Bottom is in according to me, and If Bitcoin gets rejected from $30k, this shit can happen too. Who knows? Time will tell.  the wriggly lines are just wriggly lines without a context. taken by itself the 2K number does not sound credible IF you don't delineate conditions of WHY or when it would happen. IF bitcoin goes below 17.6K (without apocalyptic macro), then there are plenty of other supports before 2K, which is a COMPLETELY arbitrary number. But, go ahead, post more wriggly lines (one of them just might be right). |
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In my honest opinion, Bitcoin Bottom is already in. And if it's not yet, then there will be so much blood bath.
$30-$31k is a very critical spot to look at. That is the most depressing thing I have seen all week. Nope, it's just an abritrary wriggly line indicating someone's opinion (which are dime and dozen on trading view). can it happen? sure. What is the chance? If everything is approximately how it is now, then 1% or less. If macro goes to s-t, then it is possible, but then EVERYTHING is possible. |
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Re whether April 2021 or Nov 2021 was the 'real' top, opinions differ.
In price, it is Nov, of course. In everything else: momentum, various on-chain metrics, etc, April looks like a better fit.
As bears in bitcoin usually last at least 12-14 mo, therefore, IF June's ~$17.6K would be an ultimate bottom, then, indeed, it would help to think about bear market lasting since last April.
On the other hand, if the bottom (lower than $17.6K) would occur between now and next January-February, then it would seem that Nov 2021 was the "true" top.
I know that it sounds wishy-washy, but in fact, it is more like a truly undetermined state....our future measurement (of the bottom) would determine the "true top" call.
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watched Ep 1 of the "T. List"...much confused, hopefully it clears up in the following.
Basically, if someone shows person's hallicinations as being "real", then I am prone to question whatever else the character "sees", hence the plot becomes blurred as to what is real and what is imaginary.
Remember "Jacob's ladder", the movie?
It's a tough one...but feels somehow connected, maybe.
an oppressive heat
mostly indoors for a week
no end to it, bleh!
#haiku
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buddy interrupt.
A night of some pretty meaningless movies..like Batman...sorry, what a waste of 3 hr.
btw, why btctalk takes like forever to post, but not to edit.
whatevs
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All those Ethereum fanboys gonna get rekt when they realize the fiat value of their precious token was in the mining and not in the utility. The utility will still be there when it goes to POS but the price won't.
That's a testable hypothesis..and we shall see soon. If true, it also predicts something else, obviously, which is actionable. I am still thinking whether to make any short term moves or not. |
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who of you made use of this service back then?  this site has somehow passed me by at that time...   There were many faucets back in the day but you only got very little (for that period) and needed to watch ads or wait a certain period of time. You got 5 bitcoins from that faucet when it first started, and you didn't need to watch ads or wait. However 5 bitcoins was probably worth less than half a cent back then. On June 23, 2010 Gavin added a CAPTCHA. He discusses it in this post. https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=206.msg1711#msg1711back in 2011 when i started my interest in btc and before i started to gpu mine and receive actual btc i wanted to test my core wallet to make sure i knew how to receive btc and could create an address and play with how the wallet worked. so i remember getting some btc once from a faucet, maybe gavins as there were hardly any at that time. wish i could remember which one and how much.. thought it was less that 1 btc though. but heres the thing. im still running and actively using the core wallet i created in june 2011. and i cannot find that transaction. should of been the 1st transaction in the wallet. now before i started mining to i do remember creating a few early test wallets as i want sure if i was doing it right, plus my internet sucked so bad i may of not waited for full sync, figured i did it wrong, and just ignored the early test wallets and created new ones. ergo that 1st transaction from an early faucet (gavins?) to my one of the early test wallet is likely lost. however since i almost never delete anything i still wonder if i still have the early test wallets, as i have many early wallet.dats on my old backups. and im pretty anal about backups. so, one day, all those old early wallets copies will get plugged in and run against the blockchain. who knows maybe i will finally find out what happened to that early faucet transaction lol. Did you feel 'early' or already kind of "late' when you entered in 2011? I definitely felt 'late' in Q3 2013 and blamed myself for not acting upon reading about btc in Wired for the first time in Nov 2011 (at ~$2). It was one of those "bitcoin is dead" articles, but i distinctly remember why I did not invest: it said that you have to use Linux or something to that extent (to run the chain and the wallet) and I had zero interest in Linux at the time (to my ignorant self circa 2011, it seemed kind of irrelevant, lol). EDIT Btw, the guy who apparently threw away the wrong HD years ago now prepared a solid business plan for possible recovery of the 'treasury' with a current worth of $181 mil. The only barrier is his city council's agreement. They would probably agree within 5 years when the payout for each city dweller reaches $1000. https://www.businessinsider.com/james-howells-threw-away-bitcoin-dump-masterplan-get-back-2022-7 |
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Have finally created my own "bucket list" for a Bitcoin low this bear market: Why these 5 metrics? Because from back-testing it would have given you an average of $3,835 in 2019 (+21.8% from the low) and $245 in 2015 (+49.4% from the low), if you were to put 20% of capital per indicator signalling a low. They otherwise appear to be the most relevant to past Bitcoin bottoms using 2 more fundamental indicators (NUPL and Hash Ribbons), along with 3 technical indicators (Pi Cycle, 200 WMA and RSI). I otherwise think they can give you a bit of "cover" in case price drops down much lower, particularly the hash ribbons indicator in this case, as well as potentially the RSI. There is the other obvious advantage of using 5 indicators/metrics, as opposed to blindly following one or another that could very well fail, even if they have been reliable up until now such as Pi Cycle or previously such as 200 WMA. Niiice. The first large bump might be to 47-49K, imho. Could be in Q3 or shifted to Q1-Q2 of 2023. IMHO, there would not be a slow grind 2014-2015 situation, if the rally would be carried by institutions. |
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