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1341  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: June 08, 2022, 10:34:00 PM
pump it up, buddy boy!
 Cheesy

On a serious note, I am not sure why the doldrums.
That much noise about such a small (currently & relatively) asset class?
...amazing...hopefully pertains to AT LEAST 10X increase in 2-5 years.
1342  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: June 07, 2022, 09:31:29 PM
If someone could not find the link:

https://www.lummis.senate.gov/wp-content/uploads/Lummis-Gillibrand-Section-by-Section-Final.pdf

EDIT: this is just an overview, shucks!
EDIT2: here is the actual bill: https://www.lummis.senate.gov/wp-content/uploads/Lummis-Gillibrand-Responsible-Financial-Innovation-Act-Final.pdf
EDIT3: $200 exception IS inflation-adjusted number! NO person is required to use an intermediary (self-keeping is in the text).
1343  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: June 07, 2022, 02:12:54 AM
ffs!
1344  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: June 06, 2022, 06:08:40 PM
OT:

If you blended all 7.88 billion ppl on Earth into a fine goo (density of a human=985 kg/m3, average human body mass=62 kg), you would end up with a sphere of human goo just under 1 km wide. This is a visualization of how that would look like in Central Park.

© reddit/kiwi2703


and weight of that human goo ball will be 332bn kg ~ 732bn lbs



https://twitter.com/_astroerika/status/1533178823335940096?s=21

Interesting, but totally GROSS.
I guess, it would be an AI perspective on humanity: it's worth the amount of organic matter (carbon, oxygen and hydrogen are otherwise plentiful in the universe)
1345  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: June 06, 2022, 06:01:22 PM
Sen. Lummis is about to introduce her bill (on Tuesday, I believe).

https://www.scribd.com/document/576008331/Lummis-Bill-Draft

Thanks.  Is there a non-scribd link where a PDF or similar can be downloaded?

The bill text that you linked is incorrect.  It has been explicitly disclaimed by Senator Lummis.  Please be more cautious.

https://nitter.net/SenLummis/status/1530281115247951872

Quote from: Senator Cynthia Lummis
I am working diligently with @sengillibrand to finalize bill text of our comprehensive digital asset legislation.

Any language circulating online is an incredibly outdated version from March 1. Stay tuned for our release of the actual bill on June 7th!

May 27, 2022 · 8:13 PM UTC · Twitter for iPhone

I found that tweet when searching for this about a week ago.  It was linked in a correction to an article by The Block.  The said article also linked to the exact same Scribd page—I didn’t notice earlier that it is the exact same link.

Here’s a full draft of Senator Cynthia Lummis' landmark crypto bill

by Kollen Post

[...]

In the months since the bill’s initial announcement, the senator’s staff has kept the actual text of the draft under wraps, using software that prohibits sharing and printing of the document. Various members of the crypto industry, lobby and Congressional staffers have expressed frustration about the limited access to the bill, which has changed frequently.

[...]

[Highlight of the following: https://archive.ph/TQcog#selection-785.0-815.10]

Following the publication of this story, Lummis said in a tweet that "any language circulating online is an incredibly outdated version from March 1," adding: "Stay tuned for our release of the actual bill on June 7th!"

According to a source with knowledge of the behind-the-scenes process, staffers have continued to update the bill’s contents.

Editor's Note: This story has been updated to reflect that, according to a post-publication comment from the Lummis team, the draft is dated March 1. Also adds a tweet from Lummis.

Lummis Bill Draft by Mike McSweeney on Scribd

Since The Block failed to fact-check this adequately before publication, I will make a mental note to be more skeptical of their articles (and of the byline “journalist”) in the future.



This is not only of interest to Americans.  Just as political pressure on mining in the E.U. affects American Bitcoiners, and just as 1990s-era U.S. export regulations on cryptography affected everyone in the world, I think that major American legislative activity about Bitcoin and cryptocurrency is of more general interest.

With all due respect to Senator Lummis, I’ll just say for now—this could be for better, or for worse.  If the bill released June 7 is anything like that early draft, I think it is overall much for the worse (despite a few improvements to the situation).  However, Senator Lummis obviously did not want to be held to whatever that text said.  Perhaps there may have been some major improvements.

Ah, back and forth.
1. Some publication posted the link, that is all that it is. Not sure about the concerns about "incorrect" and "be careful".
2. pretty sure 99% of it will be there, especially $600 cut out and mining income only after you sell. 1% possible change might be some minutia.

Contrary to what you hope for, I expect no major improvements.
1346  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: June 06, 2022, 04:56:26 AM
Sen. Lummis is about to introduce her bill (on Tuesday, I believe).

https://www.scribd.com/document/576008331/Lummis-Bill-Draft

Thanks.  Is there a non-scribd link where a PDF or similar can be downloaded?

TL;DR too complex to truly understand, but i noticed a couple of things:
1. $600 exception for payment (no tax on appreciation for tx less than $600).
2. Mining is not taxed until you sell btc for $ (or other coin, I suppose).

I think the capital gains tax exemption for small purchases was expected.  That would remove one of the biggest obstacles to using Bitcoin as money.

I am worried about any possible attempt, by accident or otherwise, to redefine Bitcoin as something substantively different than a currency, for regulatory purposes.  Worst of all, anything that winds up twisting Bitcoin into a security.

Bitcoin has zero equity.  That’s an important feature.  It is also why it is perfectly fair to buy 10k BTC for 2 pizzas, or 1 BTC for $67k.  Bitcoin has no memory of what you paid for it.

(I may elaborate on this sometime, here or elsewhere.  Cryptic here, in a way.  I am deeply concerned about any attempt to redefine Bitcoin in this fashion, especially in the U.S. or other influential jurisdictions.  It would be easy to slip by the public, because most of the public stupidly thinks of Bitcoin as sort of like a stock.  STOP THAT!)

If you skimmed the bill, did you see the legal definitions that would apply to Bitcoin?

This is a "view from above", so no coins are mentioned by name.
There are only "digital assets", "payment stablecoins" and "ancillary assets" (those are maybe tradable derivatives, like WBTC, for example).
Of interest, the bill specifically says that payment stablecoins CANNOT be backed by other "digital assets".
They also refer to "virtual currencies" and stipulate that those are NOT legal tender (of course, at this stage).
they also stipulate that "virtual currencies" have no backing by any financial assets (with the exception of "digital assets").
Specifically modifies language of 401K and 401a, allowing those to buy "digital assets". Wowza!
Specifically says that validators (miners), sellers of software and hardware, software developers are NOT brokers.
DAOs would be business entities, not disregarded entities.
Start of mark-to-market treatment of "digital assets", not forever intangibles anymore (not sure if this is good or bad).
NO cancellation of bank accounts for 'reputational risk'. "An appropriate Federal banking agency shall not restrict or discourage a depository institution from entering into or maintaining a banking relationship with a specific customer or group of customers based on reputation risk, including through the examinations and ratings of the depository institution."
This is nice as people lost accounts at some banks under the auspices of "reputational risk".
1347  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: June 06, 2022, 03:45:28 AM
For US based peeps...Sen. Lummis is about to introduce her bill (on Tuesday, I believe).

https://www.scribd.com/document/576008331/Lummis-Bill-Draft

TL;DR too complex to truly understand, but i noticed a couple of things:
1. $600 exception for payment (no tax on appreciation for tx less than $600).
2. Mining is not taxed until you sell btc for $ (or other coin, I suppose).
1348  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: June 06, 2022, 02:44:31 AM
31K?
Noice!
1349  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: June 05, 2022, 09:23:12 PM
OT: good for Wales, but there WAS a penalty (that was not given) to Ukraine.
There was a clear knock on (Yarmolenko's?) foot in the penalty area...maybe it was not fully intentional, but it is visible here:
https://youtu.be/XxfR-LtiiKM?t=259

Congrats to Wales anyway..it would be their first Wcup since 1958.
1350  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: June 05, 2022, 06:47:13 PM
Even though we probably should not be kissing the asses of anyone in bitcoin, even if they end up serving as a pretty BIG bitcoin spokesperson in a lot of ways.. And surely Saylor ended up coming to bitcoin in a way that was quite aggressive and assertive in terms of his investment of both money and time, as Gachapin pointed out.

He’s more than that.  MicroStrategy is a de facto national intelligence agency for Bitcoin.  Hello, what is their core business?  Their highly profitable business, the proceeds of which they have used to buy all those bitcoins?  Analytics and data mining to guide strategic business decisions.  Business Intelligence.

(This also relates to some points on the POW vs. POS thread, where I will reply later.)

I am dismayed that they apparently got blindsided together with everyone else, as someone out there quietly built up terrifically huge short positions and prepared to execute a multi-pronged trashing of the market, timed to hit right after the big Fed meeting.  But it’s not surprising.  MicroStrategy are no dummies—but (I infer/upon information and belief) Blackrock, Citadel, et al. are no dummies, either.  It is sharks vs. sharks, by analogy to “spy vs. spy”.

(Don’t forget that in mid-2020, Saylor himself very quietly built up MSTR’s initial long position.  IIRC, before he publicly announced it, he managed to scoop up something like 0.18% of the total then-existing BTC supply without anyone noticing.)

Not that timely intelligence on that would mean dumping BTC!  Not for someone who is in it for the long term.  If I had high capital and an inkling that a much higher-capital party was preparing to wreck the market, I would hold BTC long while shorting perps and dated futures, hedging with options, and taking other steps to batten down the hatches and secure my position with the goal of winding up with more BTC and more dollars at the bottom.

FYI, I also take it as highly significant that Saylor and his Business Intelligence company more or less suddenly exchanged their saved-up dollars to bitcoins in mid-2020.  (They essentially switched their savings account to BTC—before they started exchanging some of their ongoing income into bitcoins, and using debt to buy even more bitcoins.)  That is the action of an extremely well-informed investor, who had access to mountains of data that you and I have no idea about.

That’s much more significant than his tweets.  Helpful though those are (thx, @saylor).

I am in a bit of a loss here. So, you are saying that he was SO well informed that kept buying while SOMEONE was preparing to cut bitcoin price in half?
M. Saylor is a good spokesman for bitcoin, but his buys were mostly (in time) at the higher price with an average of 30.8K or something like that.
He is not a trader, sure, but it was not a great acumen to buy in mid-late 2020. It's not like Winkelvosses, who bought roughly the same numbers of btc (about 120-130K) at $11 or around.
THAT was a prescient buy, made them multi-billionares from a few mil investment.
1351  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: June 05, 2022, 06:14:53 PM
OT: for the science buffs out there...here is something that was unexpected (for me):

https://www.quantamagazine.org/how-to-make-the-universe-think-for-us-20220531/

TL;DR an amazing story on "deep" learning networks, including detailed explanation of "backpropagation"
Spoiler: they can convert the image of the number into acoustic waves and then back into a number (their deep learning system would rec that acoustic wave as a number).
1352  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: June 05, 2022, 05:03:53 PM
A nice piece of hopium (from reddit):

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=dhL-NhJKeCo

TL;DR G. Foss has an intrinsic value of btc of $250K and a target of $2mil (in today's $) with no time frame specified, maybe a few decades.

1353  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: June 05, 2022, 05:00:52 AM
interrupt
no four in a row...
1354  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: June 04, 2022, 07:46:18 PM
Within that twitter thread, an interesting file linked by M. Saylor:

https://assets.website-files.com/614e11526f6630959fc98679/629a961965b5a15419d5c72b_On%20Impossible%20Things%20Before%20Breakfast.pdf

TL;DR: NYDIG: DeFi is uninvestable and "...all algorithmic stablecoins will fail and the vast majority – possibly all – of DeFi’s current versions will fail."
Suggests to build LiFi on lightning.
1355  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: June 04, 2022, 06:15:14 PM
@JJG...my main point is that "money interests" (PTB) are LOSING in the current system, even when, on the surface, they are able to have some meager returns.
By fully accepting Bitcoin, EVERYONE wins, including those entrenched parties.
1356  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: June 04, 2022, 05:11:48 PM
One thing that miffs me a bit after so many years is why the legitimacy of bitcoin is still being discussed and attacked so many years later.
Compare with internet: in 1999-2000 it was already clear that Internet would support many kinds of businesses and since then nobody (or almost nobody) opined that "we gonna tax that 'evil' internet or declare that it consumes too much server power".

Short answer 1:  Not to be snide, but either you are very young, or you have a short memory.  The way you said that—LOLWUT?  Of course, there was and is plenty of hyperventilating about the “evil Internet!!!!”

The Internet ignited political firestorms over free speech, among other issues.  Remember the Blue Ribbon campaign?


"not to snide"...proceeds to snide, lol

On the subject: political storms about Internet (which I am aware of) have nothing to do with interfering in the ability to form large businesses on it.
Contrary, in the case of bitcoin, there is a lot of effort to prevent bitcoin from truly flourishing.
For example: efforts in EU to "ban" POW or NY to ban mining that uses hydrocarbons; China almost completely banned everything but the ownership ffs, etc.
You compare things that are very different in nature.
Sen Cruz is right on that, don't be cocky and think that it is all hunky-dory. It is not.
However, bitcoin might still have the upper hand in the end.


1357  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: June 04, 2022, 04:35:34 AM
Everybody get the price of bitcoin they deserved.
If you figured it out in 2011, invested a lot, held and wasn't devastated by MtGox, etc, kudos to you.
There are probably only a few hundred to few thousand people like this in the world.
Most of these people do not post here, I assume, with a few exceptions.
Some people, like CZ, started later, but made much much more than a pure hodler because they run a business that emphasized the trend.

One thing that miffs me a bit after so many years is why the legitimacy of bitcoin is still being discussed and attacked so many years later.
Compare with internet: in 1999-2000 it was already clear that Internet would support many kinds of businesses and since then nobody (or almost nobody) opined that "we gonna tax that 'evil' internet or declare that it consumes too much server power".

It seems that bitcoin is much more contested, which was a real surprise to me in the last two years.
I cannot think of any argument in favor of fiat world with constantly losing purchasing power from wages, year after year after year.
There is a need for a factor that balances this and this factor is clearly bitcoin.

Do we have an alternative that can potentially save us from the effects of inflation?
Apart from bitcoin and gold, we don't and gold has it's own 'problems'.

EDIT: RE can protect in a stable inflation, but cannot in the rapidly rising inflation because it is a leveraged purchase and your buying power is devastated by the higher rates. Therefore, current homeowners, who bought houses at 2-4.5% interest, might not be able to find buyers (presumably) at higher prices when interest rates would be 8% (which they should be already).
1358  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: June 03, 2022, 04:41:43 PM
Riddle me this:

If stonks are going to be "bad' and bonds as well, plus RE would "crash" or at least flatline because of high (upcoming) interest rates...then why PTB are STILL reluctant to put the truly big money in bitcoin?

I cannot see any other "escape" route for capital rn.
Maybe gold as well, but bitcoin is 100X times better in almost everything.
1359  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: June 03, 2022, 05:38:32 AM
Interesting musings from A. Hayes (of Bitmex fame):

https://blog.bitmex.com/shut-it-down/

Tl;DR a bit of humor..and the bottom is (mostly) in.
1360  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: June 02, 2022, 11:20:52 PM
IMHO, the fast falling out of 39K-48K  range to the low of $25.5K was the equivalent of 2018 move from $6-6.5K range to $3.2K.
The fact that it was smaller % could be explained by the fact that we did not have a blowoff top and instead had a relatively puny 3.2X entension (expected number from prior numbers and following diminishing returns trajectory was 8X or about $160K).

Of course, this is just my musings on the matter...anything could happen.

OT: SPY calls are doing great, about tripled already, bought a few AMZN and GOOGL for a presumed run (both are splitting 1:20, LOL), just a trade.
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