Fin "guy" predicts 100bp interest rate CUT within 6-9 mo. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=cdSiIYBiGjIStocks bottom is usually within 6 mo of the cut start, so, say, cuts start in 3-6mo, then bull market starts (in full) in 9-12 mo. Makes sense, just before the halving. That...or we are in 1930 (or maybe spring 2007)...I prefer the first scenario (100 bp cut). Looking to make a sizable purchase of btc and stocks, but not yet. |
|
|
|
|
SIVB-receivership?? Wow
two days ago the stock was $268, yesterday $108, now halted with news of possible sell and it currently being placed in receivership.
This is faster than Bear went down in 2007.
Let me guess: $2/share?
EDIT: this is an important bank for venture caps, had 175 bil(!) deposits at the end of December.
people REALLY should put money in bitcoin (not a financial advice).
|
|
|
|
An explainer on what is going on with Silicon Valley Bank:
- In 2021 SVB saw a mass influx in deposits, which jumped from $61.76bn at the end of 2019 to $189.20bn at the end of 2021.
- As deposits grew, SVB could not grow their loan book fast enough to generate the yield they wanted to see on this capital. As a result, they purchased a large amount (over $80bn!) in mortgage backed securities (MBS) with these deposits for their hold-to-maturity (HTM) portfolio.
- 97% of these MBS were 10+ year duration, with a weighted average yield of 1.56%.
- The issue is that as the Fed raised interest rates in 2022 and continued to do so through 2023, the value of SVB’s MBS plummeted. This is because investors can now purchase long-duration "risk-free" bonds from the Fed at a 2.5x higher yield.
- This is not a liquidity issue as long as SVB maintains their deposits, since these securities will pay out more than they cost eventually.
- However, yesterday afternoon, SVB announced that they had sold $21bn of their Available For Sale (AFS) securities at a $1.8bn loss, and were raising another $2.25bn in equity and debt. This came as a surprise to investors, who were under the impression that SVB had enough liquidity to avoid selling their AFS portfolio.
https://twitter.com/jamiequint/status/1633956163565002752....as philipma1957 said on other occasions, seems bonds continue to damage Bitcoin price... if my retard brain understands it correctlyyou misunderstood, sorry. It is just that moron bank (and maybe many more) used large cash deposits from "smart" investors taking profits at the end of 2021 to purchase some bonds (MBS) that had long duration, but tiny yield. Because yield is now much higher, those bonds were at a loss on their books. Bottom line: if you have 10/1 loans to deposits ratio, your "book" would be screwed with a fast move in interest rates. personally, i think that Silvergate/SIVB is something like hedge funds blowup in Jan-Feb 2007. Then a "Bear" and then "Lehman"...maybe not to the same degree, but enough to do some "damage". Bitcoin has NOTHING to do with this, it's just being thrown out "because crypto" kind of Wall Street thinking. Smart money accumulates. |
|
|
|
Logic is upside down these days.
...It used to be: (pretty much) someone investigating something unlikely for a bit of fun pass time.
Now it is: someone whose views don't align with ours and doesn't believe our lies and is probably right so we must silence them.
What I see is a deliberate suppression out of fear, not in strength. If you are strong, you don't need to suppress new ideas and technologies. Something must be up, not sure what, but some incomprehensible tax proposals were also tabled. I guess the "system" wants to 'eat itself to death"... Spaceballs vibes |
|
|
|
found this linky on reddit: https://www.abc.net.au/news/2023-03-06/perth-mint-gold-doping-china-cover-up-four-corners/102048622Gold doping...less of an issue than I originally thought (gold was still 99.99% pure, apparently), but Perth was apparently selling bars to SGE that were not up to their particularly high standards. Allegedly, it was going on since 2018...and all they wanted was to 'save' 620K a year. I still say that a retail customer ordering a 1oz or even a kilo don't really know what he/she gets...it is all based on trust. Still yet another reason to buy silver bars vs gold. Better yet buy BTC. silver bars value per weight is roughly 1/100 of gold. I am not going to store chunks of metal at home, hence no go for me, but i got a tiny bit of "fake" silver-SLV ETF, play amounts. bitcoin is flat as a pancake, not sure why. |
|
|
|
found this linky on reddit: https://www.abc.net.au/news/2023-03-06/perth-mint-gold-doping-china-cover-up-four-corners/102048622Gold doping...less of an issue than I originally thought (gold was still 99.99% pure, apparently), but Perth was apparently selling bars to SGE that were not up to their particularly high standards. Allegedly, it was going on since 2018...and all they wanted was to 'save' 620K a year. I still say that a retail customer ordering a 1oz or even a kilo don't really know what he/she gets...it is all based on trust. |
|
|
|
buddy just did 24 and I did 26
I know that you try to keep it interesting, but he/it is always at 24/day and you can post 30 if you really want, right? man vs machine is skewed towards man in this case because the machine is on a steady stream of posts. maybe richie gets competitive and reprograms it to start posting every 30 min? i kid, i kid. |
|
|
|
Buddy's double brings him to 23
but this post gets me to 25 or maybe 26
So 3 of 3 days so far.
geez, phil, you have a lot of post stamina...respect. Can't say that I am not entertained by this "battle". |
|
|
|
OT: I remember I have seen this before but to this much accuracy it’s mind blowing. This is study recently published for peer-review “High-resolution image reconstruction with latent diffusion models from human brain activity” Below set of ”Presented images” were shown to a group of humans. The “Reconstructed Images” were the result of an fMRI output to Stable Diffusion. Doesn’t it look like it can read human mind? 
https://sites.google.com/view/stablediffusion-with-brain/yeah but were these the best 5 out of 500? Bingo! Still...impressive considering how indirect fMRI data is. What this tech would be able to do in 5-10 years? A bit scary. I have so many questions. Is it more like a camera recording live? ie is the subject staring at the image while the MRI is on. Is there a time delay? Ie look at image for 1 minute look at blank white screen for 1 minute or for that matter try a free screen a blue screen a yellow one. Then test with the MRI I can picture that you need a reset image so you can't be read. So you paint an image on your hand look at it to reset your brain. Still very impressive tech. 1 step closer to the matrix. (if we are not there as of now) Buddy v Phil
buddy = 17
Phil = 18
here is more info about the method: https://the-decoder.com/stable-diffusion-can-visualize-human-thoughts-from-mri-data/beware: site wants to know your location and wants to set lots of cookies, which could be declined. combine that with this: https://www.yahoo.com/lifestyle/next-step-surveillance-ai-finding-133038020.htmland it gets pretty orwellian in 5 -10 years you enter the store and store's AI already knows what you want and jacks the price 10% "just for you"....albeit it already exists in the lo-tech world: painters, roofers, plumbers, etc set up the price partially on what they percieve you are worth, judging by your home/habitat. The more expensive it looks, the higher is the price of the same work...just a fact. |
|
|
|
OT: I remember I have seen this before but to this much accuracy it’s mind blowing. This is study recently published for peer-review “High-resolution image reconstruction with latent diffusion models from human brain activity” Below set of ”Presented images” were shown to a group of humans. The “Reconstructed Images” were the result of an fMRI output to Stable Diffusion. Doesn’t it look like it can read human mind?
https://sites.google.com/view/stablediffusion-with-brain/yeah but were these the best 5 out of 500? Bingo! Still...impressive considering how indirect fMRI data is. What this tech would be able to do in 5-10 years? A bit scary. |
|
|
|
To all those cheering on short term I-Bond rates, be warned, the music will eventually stop. And stop hard.
The return rates will drop to zero overnight, and all the bagholders will be looking for the exit.
that's why i never bought the stupid I-bond or even treasuries (yet). treasury money market...highly liquid, 1:1 with cash and you could be out in 24hr. To critics, I am getting into an age situation where money flow is what matters, so bitcoin is a long term savings account (a "fortress of solitude" in the "Gambler" parlance) and money flow from work (currently), pension, soc sec, money market (interest), potentially deferred annuities, etc, etc is a spending account with multiple entries. Never wanted to own properties for rent-not my thing when I would have to chase the non-payers (renters). |
|
|
|
Similar to previous fractal from last week, here is my short-term worst case scenario with mid-term best case scenario: $20K by end of month but $30K by June I like it when people are more optimistic then me  Probably because I'm just not convinced that the macro economic environment being bad for Bitcoin, fundamentally I think it's good for Bitcoin long-term. Until Bitcoin drops further than -83%, ie further than previous bear markets without high inflation, then the -77% (so far) is clearly a better performance. I'm not sure how anyone can argue against this, apart from speculating that $12K is still coming but will just take longer than usual. Which for sure could still happen, but doesn't change the fact Bitcoin has performed better in 2022 (ie a year after ATH) than previous bear markets after 1 year of downside. This is the only long-term bearish sentiment I hear right now, speculating that Bitcoin will perform worse during high inflation or a recession, without any evidence so far to prove it. Bitcoin falling -77% can be attributed to it's 4 year cycle, completely unrelated to the macro economic environment. Probably the reason it has performed better in 2022 than 2018 or 2014 bear markets is simply because there was no blow off top, not much else, and certainly nothing to do with high inflation or the macroeconomic environment. Hence the argument of being below 200 WMA is kind of irrelevant, because of course without a blow off top it's a lot closer. The only argument I am really willing to acknowledge is that there was no blow off top in 2021 was because of anticipated inflation, but even so I find it a bit far fetched personally. I'm otherwise certain that if high inflation came in 2021, then everyone would be speculating that this is the reason for the bull market, rather than simply acknowledging it's to do with Bitcoin's own inflationary policy and post 2020 halving. I might generally agree, but why bitcoin not having a blowoff top was because of anticipated inflation (in a direct fashion)? Perhaps, it was rather a more complex relation: market surmised that because inflation is anticipated, fed would have to move and get into restrictive posture with regards to money printing, thereby restricting money flow to the most "speculative" (in most participants perspective) investments like bitcoin. My position (unless proven wrong) is that bitcoin is still mostly governed by the 4 year cycles and macro could only influence it temporarily (like in March of 2020). That said, I am enjoying getting 4.75% on my cash and at 6-7% I would convert even some stocks into cash. If 10 year Treasury note would be at 7%, I would probably put 60% of my fiat into it and maybe some deferred annuity (rates should be great at that point), because, heck, what could be better in THOSE economic conditions (in fiat world). Not touching my btc, though. |
|
|
|
is that Jersey talk? In my first year in US I always wondered why the tri-state area ladies always talk in that whiny cat voice...eventually i realized that it was like an aphrodisiac for their boyfriends, etc. Local customs, I guess. |
|
|
|
where did a thou suddenly go?
news?
EDIT: I see...some FUD about Binance.
 it's all you got, bud? not too much |
|
|
|
|
where did a thou suddenly go?
news?
EDIT: I see...some FUD about Binance.
|
|
|
|
https://bitcoinmagazine.com/culture/bitcoin-reaches-mass-adoption-in-60-yearsI wish it could happen sooner, but would be happy for our children's children. Imho, it could be condensed into 40-45 with, say, 15 years for each period as we already see some infrastructure buildup and we are not even 15 years in. TL;DR: three stages-1. infection [with bitcoin virus or rather antivirus] 2009-2029; 2. infrastructure (2029-2049); 3. mass adoption (2049-2069)
|
|
|
|
Everything? I guess that makes G. Gensler a security too. |
|
|
|
Why do you think, that hardware wallets are a bad way to hold bitcoins?
They involve trust. Merited, but it is a complex conversation. OK, Ledger is proprietary, but Trezor is, apparently, open source, but we are trusting the Trezor live software, I assume (as well as ledger live respectfully). It also seems like you can use 'words' and restore on any wallet that uses the same encoding scheme (BIP39, i assume). people here showed somewhat ingenious method where they used actual hardware, like nuts and bolts for word engraving. Being in the city-wide flood situation, one actual and a couple potential events, I don't think old school paperwallets are any better on the balance. What is left: recording of the private phrase/seed and storage in some secondary places...good for redundancy, questionable for wallet security-remember that Dutch guy (mr. Taihuttu) with funky hair who sold his house for btc in mid 2017 and became a digital nomad-that is, apparently, his style: spread wallets over continents. Tl;DR all address storage technologies have to improve if we are to expect btc to become a >$1mil/per asset in the future. |
|
|
|
|
Those "new kids" on bitcoin block, Ordinals and Stacks (running smart contracts on bitcoin)...bullish or neutral to bitcoin's value long term?
The idea that you could inscribe something on each satoshi is kind of fascinating.
I am not buying Stacks into a huge pump, but have some from 2017, totally forgot about them in the last year or two.
Maybe it is worth buying a couple of early ordinals...they might have value in 20-50 years or even earlier...i saw an original iphone being sold for $63K recently...could be same thing or even more...a collectible that is forever inscribed on the bitcoin blockchain.
IMHO, regardless of what 'conservative' bitcoiners say, this could be good for bitcoin's value (as an additional layer of such value).
|
|
|
|
|
Show Posts
