1562
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Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion
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on: January 28, 2018, 02:00:52 PM
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Its not about bitfinex, its about tether. Count the number of exchanges with real! USD support - Coinbase, Bitstamp, Gemini and Kraken - thats it. Now imagine "the market" realizes that there are 2.2Billion worthless "USD" in the system, which where used to pump up the price from 1k$ to 20k$. Somebody will be the bagholder for those 2.2Billion.
The bagholders would be the ones holding tether, not bitcoin. In relation to bitcoin, this looks like a orchestrated FUD. It already happened before, when price was starting to rise.
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1563
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Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion
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on: January 28, 2018, 01:47:28 PM
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The difference between Mt.Gox and Bitfinex is that, at that time, bitcoin had few use cases, and few exchanges, whereas now, is much more widespread, with lots of use cases and exchanges (there are even people using it to buy cars and houses).
So a Bitfinex scandal would not affect the price as much as Mt.Gox did.
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1565
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Local / Português (Portuguese) / Re: Contratos futuros: uma nova forma de manipular o preço do Bitcoin?
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on: January 27, 2018, 02:21:31 PM
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Então o Bitcoin valorizar a preços astronômicos acabou?
Eu não tenho certeza disso. Estamos em janeiro ainda. Todo mês de janeiro tem crash. Se o preço ficar deste jeito até maio, aí saberemos que estão manipulando os valores. O mercado de derivativos é enorme, são mais de 1 quadrilhão de dólares. Isto é mais do que todo o dinheiro que tem no mundo, seja ouro, prata ou fiat. Eles podem injetar bilhões para provocar uma queda de 5% em todas as exchanges, e deixar os alfaceiros fazerem o resto. Uma queda de 5% num valor alto já é o suficiente para os alfaceiros venderem tudo e iniciar uma bear trend, levando a queda para 50% ou mais. E isso sem a participação das baleias do bitcoin. Se somarem estas, fica ainda pior.
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1567
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Local / Português (Portuguese) / Re: Contratos futuros: uma nova forma de manipular o preço do Bitcoin?
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on: January 27, 2018, 01:14:05 PM
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Pode sim. Eu já postei sobre isso várias vezes no forum sobre especulação em inglês.
Qualquer baleia pode comprar um contrato futuro, apostar num short com alavancagem de 10x, dumpar as moedas e ver os alfaceiros vendendo tudo. Depois ele recompra na baixa e saca a grana do contrato ao expirar. A alavancagem lhe permitirá recomprar ainda mais moedas do que teria num esquema de pump and dump padrão.
Fundos de hedge também podem fazer o mesmo. Eu acredito que a alta de Novembro e Dezembro foi dinheiro injetado por estes fundos, pois foi logo após o anúncio dos mercados futuros no final de Outubro. Se eles agirem em conluio com as baleias, é possível promoverem uma subida artificial e depois um dump. Como todo mês de Janeiro tem crash, não foi difícil para eles manipularem os preços. Eles apenas intensificaram a queda que ocorre sempre neste mês.
Nada disso seria possível se não existissem alfaceiros.
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1569
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Economy / Speculation / Re: CME contracts expire and the BITCOIN price..?
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on: January 26, 2018, 01:08:14 PM
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Some people are saying Wall Street would need billions of dollars to manipulate the price on the exchanges, which would cause the profit to be too small.
They are right. However, what about some of the big old whales joining Wall Street and having a piece of the cake? Any whale can short those contracts with leverage and then dump the price, cash out the contract and rebuy at lower levels.
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1570
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Economy / Speculation / Re: 10.000 $ still remain a strong support. Trend is not changed yet.
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on: January 26, 2018, 01:04:06 PM
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If this bear trend extends to the next month, we can go as low as 5k. Bear markets are irrational, but this time theres some resistance, so it will fall slowly.
Bitcoin is being "tamed" by CME. You can deny it if you want. The only way to free the honey badger from its captors is releasing LN and Schnorr signatures, as this will increase demand from average people. Only then, we will go to 25k and beyond.
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1573
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Local / Brasil / Re: Porque exchanges brasileiros tiram % no saque de BRL?
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on: January 25, 2018, 12:27:56 PM
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Eu acho abusiva, sacar 1000 reais ou 100000 reais da o mesmo trabalho pra eles, no primeiro exemplo você paga 13,90 BRL, no segundo 1390 BRL de taxas.
Também acho, deveria ser uma taxa fixa. O valor do TED nos bancos é sempre o mesmo, por que nas exchanges deveria ser diferente? A Foxbit está cobrando taxas baixas para sacar BTC, mas quando você vai sacar reais, é uma pancada.
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1574
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Economy / Speculation / Re: CME contracts expire and the BITCOIN price..?
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on: January 25, 2018, 11:36:46 AM
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In theory, they should have no effect, since they dont control most of the supply, as it happens with gold. However, they dont need all the supply to trigger FUD and FOMO. Problem here is that people are confusing the holder of the contract with the intermediary fund which is holding bitcoins. They are two different entities. The holder of the contract is a person, the fund is a institution. The holder of the contract dont have any effect on bitcoin price, since he is not holding bitcoin, only the contract. Why do you think gold and silver dont have proper value? They have low value because of derivatives. http://money.visualcapitalist.com/worlds-money-markets-one-visualization-2017/Look at how derivatives eclipse all the money in the world, even fiat. Derivatives are contracts which are paid in cash. This money keeps floating around, and is used for manipulation. So the holder of the contract buy a short position, and the institution do the pump and dump scenario. It wont need most of the supply, because most of the newbies are weak hands, and the media already portrayed bitcoin as a dangerous, if not criminal, investment. Since theres low volume on the exchanges, its easy to manipulate, given the money these institutions have made with derivatives in the past. Were not for the weak hands, FUD and FOMO would not be possible, but they are the majority entering the market right now. They already enter with fear, due to the image bitcoin have throughout the media. They buy with fear, they sell with panic.
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1575
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Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion
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on: January 24, 2018, 11:05:27 AM
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My theory is slightly different: wall street started loading up on btc once futures were a sure fact, and kept pumping until it established an upward avalanche-momentum when even moms and pops started panic-buying btc above 10K. While the noobs were buying above 10-15K the sharks loaded up on shorts (btc futures are still mostly short), and then, when their target was hit at 20K they pulled the trigger unloading their "physical" btc making out like bandits both because they sold at the top their btc and even more from their futures short bets placed at the top. A perfect controlled demolition, which they will repeat until it works imho, that's why they will let the price pump again after the next futures expiration.
I have the same impression. Just compare October and November, you'll see that it spiked too much. They dont need to have too much volume on the exchanges, just enough to trigger the noobs, to buy at first and then to sell. So my guess is that after 26th, they will pump it again. But I doubt it will have the same effect this time. January always have crashes, they just intensified it.
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1579
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Economy / Speculation / Re: Where is the bottom for BTC? 10K or 8K?
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on: January 23, 2018, 01:39:50 AM
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Any evidence to back your fact up?
Masterluc said we would not go back to below 10k. And here we are, very near to cross it back to four digits. So I think the market is now acting irrationally, and TA will be useless. Any level will be possible now.
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1580
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Economy / Speculation / Re: Next week Futures expire
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on: January 23, 2018, 12:03:53 AM
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Its 26th, and a new one will open 30th, if I'm not mistaken.
Price skyrocketed after CBOE opened in December, but started to fall after CME opened.
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