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Author Topic: Martin Armstrong Discussion  (Read 615571 times)
bikefront
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May 28, 2019, 08:10:51 PM
 #5401

Guess not. Made a bit from a utilities trade but went -1.5% today overall.

So far, Armstrong seems to be right about this Bearish Reversal, whatever that number was. Some say they're old, or wrong, or change, who knows...
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bikefront
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May 28, 2019, 09:29:33 PM
 #5402

Was referring to the nasdaq- the user Alex did not give the number, stating it was exclusive to subscribers. But he did say it was elected and did so on Friday, so it was a good forecast thus far.
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May 28, 2019, 10:37:12 PM
 #5403

Was referring to the nasdaq- the user Alex did not give the number, stating it was exclusive to subscribers. But he did say it was elected and did so on Friday, so it was a good forecast thus far.

I see, I don't have access to  the NASDAQ numbers, but it has led on the way up maybe showing it is the leader on the way down too? Cycle analysts Dr C Nenner has the Nasdaq showing a short term cycle bottom over the next couple of weeks. We will see. As he is calling a market top this summer then a huge sell off...where as Armstrong - in a sense - is calling the opposite.

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May 28, 2019, 10:54:23 PM
 #5404

I am also bearish for now, although it doesn't mean much because I am not a good swing trader. Looking at the 252.25 point on DIA, if we open under that, 248.55 can be seen relatively quickly, probably the very same week.

Possible other nearby trading shots:
35.27 is a TWTR intraday long the first time it touches there as long as it does not not gap underneath.
364.32 i a BA intraday short as long as it does not gap above.
118.21 is a GLD intraday long as long as it does not gap below.
7.97 is a GE intraday long as long as it does not gap underneath.
39.81 is a swing trade in EEM if the market opens under that, and that will be the resistance. It can then test 38.72.
All assuming the first touch.
trc4949
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May 29, 2019, 12:54:20 AM
 #5405

Gee, maybe Marty will post a private blog post this time BEFOFRE the markets start crashing again instead of half way through them happening....
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May 29, 2019, 11:19:31 AM
 #5406

Gee, maybe Marty will post a private blog post this time BEFOFRE the markets start crashing again instead of half way through them happening....

Yeah Armstrong has a history of doing that  Cheesy
usually more downside follows, but then quickly a big rebound, so usually you can't make any money on it.
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May 29, 2019, 01:14:34 PM
 #5407

Gee, maybe Marty will post a private blog post this time BEFOFRE the markets start crashing again instead of half way through them happening....

The Nasdaq Weekly Bearish was elected. So, if the next Nasdaq Weekly Bearish Reversal had/had not yet been tested/approached, then it is allowable to give that win to Armstrong, as the elected Reversal was still predicting more downside to come. The thing is, I don't know what the numbers were, so the entry and exit is unknown, although I believe we gapped down after the week-end election so the trade would have had 0 drawdown.
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May 29, 2019, 02:20:24 PM
 #5408

https://i.imgur.com/nwNXegi.png Also, a classic signature 'perfect setup' today. Fade the move on extremes: /ES and QQQ both hit support at the same time on LoD inflection points while volatility hits resistance, all on previously untested points. It isn't a 100% winrate- but it's close enough.
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May 29, 2019, 06:59:58 PM
 #5409

https://i.imgur.com/nwNXegi.png Also, a classic signature 'perfect setup' today. Fade the move on extremes: /ES and QQQ both hit support at the same time on LoD inflection points while volatility hits resistance, all on previously untested points. It isn't a 100% winrate- but it's close enough.

pls explain further your approach. You use NQ, YM, ES intraday futures data + VIX. How you see the alignment for a sweet spot entry counter-trend?
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May 29, 2019, 07:51:45 PM
 #5410

https://i.imgur.com/nwNXegi.png Also, a classic signature 'perfect setup' today. Fade the move on extremes: /ES and QQQ both hit support at the same time on LoD inflection points while volatility hits resistance, all on previously untested points. It isn't a 100% winrate- but it's close enough.

pls explain further your approach. You use NQ, YM, ES intraday futures data + VIX. How you see the alignment for a sweet spot entry counter-trend?

I actually use a combination of futures and cash etfs. I go by what I tend to trade better at individually, then trade when aligned for improved winrate. Also, VXX is used, not VIX, as it is traded with volume and thus has properties of supply and demand based technicals. The alignment itself is simple- if an index hits support while another one does at the same time, it is more likely that I've found a market sweet spot. If you mean picking price points, I basically see historical places where OHLC points occur, and draw price levels through those lines. I also make sure that those points have historically followed the laws of supply and demand- that is, support built on multi tops, gaps with opens along those historical points, etc. I also make sure to use the vehicle that is most reliable. So for the S and P 500, my standalone best vehicle is /ES, not SPY or SPX. For the Dow, I trade DIA best, not /YM as far as line accuracy goes. This is backwards looking methodology, but it has appeared to hold up. From there, I essentially have a set of high winrate standalone vehicles. Combined with the alignment method to take trades only on supply and demand based levels that should work even without alignment, it leads to a fairly high degree of accuracy. This is not limited to countertrend trading, as trend alignment trades are also possible. DIA actually hit that red line in the picture on the high of the day as it was the classic gap down under support and initial resistance test, but no alignment on that one.
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May 30, 2019, 04:35:26 AM
 #5411

DOW: Possible weakness into June and summer
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May 31, 2019, 02:27:49 AM
Merited by infofront (1)
 #5412

50 period EMA and 200 period EMA on the weekly...intersting
etoimene
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May 31, 2019, 08:20:07 AM
 #5413

I wonder what the definition of turning point is.
I understood that turning point is actual high or low, but you don't know in advance what should it be.
Actual high was definitely April.
If May is turning point, I would conclude that May would be low.
However, if we continue lower into June, May will not be actual low.
Any clarification?
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May 31, 2019, 03:49:20 PM
 #5414

I wonder what the definition of turning point is.
I understood that turning point is actual high or low, but you don't know in advance what should it be.
Actual high was definitely April.
If May is turning point, I would conclude that May would be low.
However, if we continue lower into June, May will not be actual low.
Any clarification?

We have already shown how turning points are inaccurate, and so they should be ignored. However, according to Armstrong, they are supposed to be highs or lows on closing or intraday basis. So the actual turning point can be the highest close when the actual high is not on that turning point.

10 day performance of perfect setups here. https://i.imgur.com/sgYEtyZ.png you can see that it caught the low early today too. Red and green lines are always changing according to how fresh a level is, as I do the analysis each day, but only as far as the color; all price levels are there to stay. For example, see how the Dow high yesterday was a double top, and not fresh- but! the /ES high made a higher high almost right on the dot of the fresh red short line. Therefore giving extra validity to the short.
etoimene
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May 31, 2019, 07:06:33 PM
 #5415



We have already shown how turning points are inaccurate


... or how we don't know how to read them ...
psp777
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May 31, 2019, 08:57:05 PM
Last edit: May 31, 2019, 11:16:06 PM by psp777
 #5416

Okay so bearish weekly both elected by a far margin...1.58% on the closest one

1% rule indicates: "When a reversal is elected by a close greater than 1.0% away from the actual number, the market will retrace to the Reversal Point to that price level. The greater the percentage move away from the reversal, the greater the time period to retest."

We will see:

bikefront
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May 31, 2019, 11:32:52 PM
 #5417



We have already shown how turning points are inaccurate


... or how we don't know how to read them ...

We do. Armstrong says that it is based on Composite highs are where highs or lows are formed on intraday or closing highs. So for example, if it shows that October is a turning point on the monthly level, it means that it is supposed to be the the lowest close for the month or the lowest intraday, or highest close or highest intraday. Same can be done on the weekly level. Many have followed Armstrong on here for years including MA and myself and we both have concluded that turning points don't work, and we have shown why that is the case on this thread.
bikefront
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June 01, 2019, 01:20:32 AM
 #5418

Okay so bearish weekly both elected by a far margin...1.58% on the closest one

1% rule indicates: "When a reversal is elected by a close greater than 1.0% away from the actual number, the market will retrace to the Reversal Point to that price level. The greater the percentage move away from the reversal, the greater the time period to retest."

We will see:



Was this for the Dow? Mind giving the elected bearish and the next bearish? And are they both Majors?
psp777
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June 01, 2019, 01:24:31 AM
 #5419

Okay so bearish weekly both elected by a far margin...1.58% on the closest one

1% rule indicates: "When a reversal is elected by a close greater than 1.0% away from the actual number, the market will retrace to the Reversal Point to that price level. The greater the percentage move away from the reversal, the greater the time period to retest."

We will see:



Was this for the Dow? Mind giving the elected bearish and the next bearish? And are they both Majors?

Both Minor. See my chart a few posts above
footlong24seven
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June 01, 2019, 06:01:20 AM
 #5420

Hey all, just want to let you know that I lurk this board frequently and have been super busy with other things and haven't been able to post or comment on anything really.

It seems like there is some agreement on how to interpret Socrates and I believe we can hammer out what works and what doesn't. The reversals seem pretty legit. Is it worth the $ just for the reversals? I feel like we're missing the critical TIME element which is supposed to make Socrates stand above the others. We're either interpreting the forecast arrays and GMW incorrectly, or they're just random noise that gets it right once in a blue moon. Like the rest of you I am suspicious of the claim that they monitor "global capital flows" unless what he really means is bond volume since it makes up the lion's share of transactions as he mentions frequently.

That being said, the May "turning point" basically came to fruition the moment Trump made the May 5 tweet. There is something to be said about the alignment of that since he could easily claim in a blog post that his computer picked the turning point and wouldn't have any clue about tariff increases so therefore Socrates is magic. However I do still see that as a strange coincidence (which we have all seen often) and the testable part is now July. Both were "turning points" that doesn't mean May was the low and July the high. It would very well be that May is when it "turns" down and July is when it "turns" back up. In that sense it doesn't necessarily mean an absolute low or high - only when the trend is due to change. Again the INTERPRETATION is what may be wrong and not Socrates, but I don't even have a sub *shame* I get the info vicariously through this forum. 

There is also common agreement here that he likes to highlight when he's right and not when he's wrong, or missed a call like the massive rally from December-Apr. It's like you're always on the fence because sometimes you say to yourself "whoa he nailed it" and other times you say to yourself "he's exaggerating". Maybe it's a bit of both. That's fine for a PERSON. The same standard doesn't apply to a SERVICE with subscription $. Again he may be actually giving you Socrates but the missing piece here is how to interpret the TIME targets.

As far as my trades I saw his regular blog post with the downtrend lines for DB so I got Jan 2020 $5 puts @ $0.24. Now trading $0.31. Got a bunch won't reveal the number. My YINN $26 calls 10/2019 expiry that I bought in March cratered 90% and as far as I can see it's a total loss and I still have 4 months and 3 weeks to at least recover the losses before the Theta kills it for good.

Bike your strategy seems solid by the way. How can we talk outside this board and chat trades? (also I'm in agreement that Strike is the MAn himself =)
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