Bitcoin Forum
April 28, 2024, 12:47:48 AM *
News: Latest Bitcoin Core release: 27.0 [Torrent]
 
   Home   Help Search Login Register More  
Pages: « 1 ... 221 222 223 224 225 226 227 228 229 230 231 232 233 234 235 236 237 238 239 240 241 242 243 244 245 246 247 248 249 250 251 252 253 254 255 256 257 258 259 260 261 262 263 264 265 266 267 268 269 270 [271] 272 273 274 275 276 277 278 279 280 281 282 283 284 285 286 287 288 289 290 291 292 293 294 295 296 297 298 299 300 301 302 303 304 305 306 307 308 309 310 311 312 313 314 315 316 317 318 319 320 321 ... 373 »
  Print  
Author Topic: Martin Armstrong Discussion  (Read 646778 times)
AnonymousCoder
Member
**
Offline Offline

Activity: 580
Merit: 17


View Profile
July 05, 2019, 05:30:52 AM
Last edit: July 20, 2021, 06:36:39 PM by AnonymousCoder
 #5401

How did your simple to find Brazil short go? Hopefully you got out on the day you posted this otherwise you could have taken a big loss

It wasn't pretty. I got out break even. But at least it was simple. If anything this single observation adds to my own pile of evidence supporting the view that it is almost impossible to predict market movement. Martin Armstrong tries to defeat this - quite unsuccessfully. The difference is that he cheats using various methods that create false evidence showing that he can do it. See:

https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=1082909.msg51666429#msg51666429


I have also taken some losses lately. These were the result of my belief that there would be a divergence between Emerging markets, European markets and the US market. This belief comes from what Martin Armstrong has been preaching for years. All wrong. Even Turkey the Basket Case. Rallied. Even in USD terms recently. Not exciting, no new highs, but still quite the contrary to what Martin Armstrong is saying like

https://www.armstrongeconomics.com/market-talk/market-talk-october-22-2018/
Emerging markets are in meltdown yet no-one wants to admit it.

MSCI Emerging Markets Index is up since 2018-10-22. Had you traded based on his statement at the time, you would have lost money. Period.

Then in a Socrates report:

SOCRATES Detailed Analysis
ANALYSIS AS OF THE CLOSE Tue. Jun. 11, 2019: MSCI EM $ (Global)
...
False reaction for now on this level.
...


This indicates that the reaction rally is false and should be shorted. WRONG. Kept rallying.

So NOT reading his stuff should save some people a lot of money. Or do the opposite of what he says like https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=1082909.msg51490978#msg51490978


Martin Armstrong is a charlatan, and he spent 11 years in jail for that reason but he has not changed.

Read this blog starting here to find out more about computerized fraud.


See armstrongecmscam.blogspot.com for a more compact view of major findings posted in this blog.

Every single defrauded person should report their case, see Where and how to complain
1714265268
Hero Member
*
Offline Offline

Posts: 1714265268

View Profile Personal Message (Offline)

Ignore
1714265268
Reply with quote  #2

1714265268
Report to moderator
"Bitcoin: mining our own business since 2009" -- Pieter Wuille
Advertised sites are not endorsed by the Bitcoin Forum. They may be unsafe, untrustworthy, or illegal in your jurisdiction.
MTL4
Newbie
*
Offline Offline

Activity: 62
Merit: 0


View Profile
July 05, 2019, 03:02:05 PM
 #5402

It wasn't pretty. I got out break even. But at least it was simple. If anything this single observation adds to my own pile of evidence supporting the view that it is almost impossible to predict market movement. Martin Armstrong tries to defeat this - quite unsuccessfully. The difference is that he cheats using various methods that create false evidence showing that he can do it. See:

https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=1082909.msg51666429#msg51666429


I have also taken some losses lately. These were the result of my belief that there would be a divergence between Emerging markets, European markets and the US market. This belief comes from what Martin Armstrong has been preaching for years. All wrong. Even Turkey the Basket Case. Rallied. Even in USD terms recently. Not exciting, no new highs, but still quite the contrary to what Martin Armstrong is saying like

https://www.armstrongeconomics.com/market-talk/market-talk-october-22-2018/
Emerging markets are in meltdown yet no-one wants to admit it.

MSCI Emerging Markets Index is up since 2018-10-22. Had you traded based on his statement at the time, you would have lost money. Period.

Then in a Socrates report:

SOCRATES Detailed Analysis
ANALYSIS AS OF THE CLOSE Tue. Jun. 11, 2019: MSCI EM $ (Global)
...
False reaction for now on this level.
...


This indicates that the reaction rally is false and should be shorted. WRONG. Kept rallying.

So NOT reading his stuff should save some people a lot of money. Or do the opposite of what he says like https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=1082909.msg51490978#msg51490978


Read this blog starting at page 273 to find out more about computerized fraud

I'm glad you brought up your own bad experience and it was this exact type of scenario that led me to create my own system to verify what MA was saying.  I got burned during the bottom in commodities/metals thinking it would fall further (as per MA) and the the USD would rocket higher as a safe haven.  I had even mentioned it to others who thankfully ignored my advice (I felt terrible).  After creating my own system I was then easily able to see the bottom in commodities and the temporary high in the USD but you can imagine how infuriating it is to figure this out after the fact.  The reality is that I realized it's just part of the journey toward becoming a good trader.  You always need to know when you're right/wrong at any given point and position in the markets with confidence (which is only gained through experience).  The problem is that MA still may be correct on his comments but the issue is the time frame.  If someone asks what's a good stock to buy and it goes parabolic one month then crashes the next they might be pissed at me.  Was it really a good buy?  Well it all depends on your timing.  If you're a day trader then it was probably a great buy, if not, then you might have been crushed.  This is what I mean, timing is everything.  Bitcoin is another example, is it a good buy or a bad one?  Answer is it depends on your trading style and like any investment timing is everything.  So getting back to MA's comment, the USD is still in an upward trend and it's possible (although unlikely according to my system) for the PM's/commodities to drop further but I've learned to never trade against the trend unless it's at an extreme (2016 commodity bottom was a great example of this because it was at the extreme of a downward trend indicating a likely reversal).  It's alot like racing through a movie to get to the ending but there can be an emotional roller coaster of ups and downs along the way before you get to the finale (only hoping you're right).  Most people don't have the stomach for this and I wouldn't suggest it's a good way to trade either.

Same thing with the other investments you mentioned above versus MA's comments.  The Euro will very likely die a long slow death with alot of short term rallies along the way to shake out both shorts and longs so it's key to know where you are on the trend.  The USD will also likely eventually fail after rising to an extreme height (again MA call) but again who knows the timing on this and how many rallies/declines will come before that final top.  Emerging markets may eventually get crushed from borrowing in USD but again who knows the timing on that either.  So from a macro standpoint MA is likely correct on these but from a trading perspective it's deadly to trade using that info alone, you'll get crushed or wimp out emotionally from taking heavy paper losses along the way.  From all the ones you mentioned, when looking at my system I would currently be long all the ones you mentioned (Emerging Markets, European Market, US Market) buying dips and selling peaks with stops on my trades.  The only one I would be shorting now is Turkey (currently only one in a downward trend).  China and India remain very strong upward trends as well.

Again I think there's alot of both good and bad to MA's stuff so just because some of it isn't good for trading I wouldn't throw the baby out with the bathwater.  His ECM has been right far too often, it defies your typical coin flip probability.  The timing on this stuff is extremely complex and honestly I really don't even watch news either because it's all completely biased with people giving explanations to fill the gap in hindsight (most of it absolute rubbish).  I will still be watching the ECM for major turning points going forward to see how we do in 2020.05 and listening to MA's macro comments because if something does take place shortly after then, yet again it will be worth my while to have given it a second look.  If nothing happens then again my system is still there to keep me well positioned in the game.
MTL4
Newbie
*
Offline Offline

Activity: 62
Merit: 0


View Profile
July 05, 2019, 04:39:18 PM
 #5403

Best traders I know usually leave something on the table in exchange for locking in profits, I'd say job well done.
MTL4
Newbie
*
Offline Offline

Activity: 62
Merit: 0


View Profile
July 05, 2019, 07:04:50 PM
 #5404

Yes. I was honestly impressed at first by Armstrong because I had started following him after hearing of him by chance. Then the '18 January crash happened. That first impression had made a strong mark and thus I had defended Armstrong as much as I did. But then the usual losing calls that he claimed as winners, left field excuses, etc etc kicked in and my account couldn't handle it. Re-learned trading from scratch and never looked back.

Yeah I think it'd be nice to have a small chat where we could discuss trading. I'm in my 20s so my experience is very limited, but I have learned in a year what It'd take most to know in 5- I do pretty much nothing but study markets in my free time.

And yeah whenever I see the price return, I think 'good thing I sold'- but it did go to the minimum target first, which bothers me. But all trades will be ones of regret, just part of the game.

I can only imagine how many times others have gone through this exact same scenario (myself included).  Not sure why MA's good at calling the crashes but it's those sorts of calls that still hold my attention to this day.  Overall it has caused me to be a better trader (through self reliance) but it definitely sucked to go through when it hits you in the wallet via lost opportunity (I lost a solid 3x-5x by sitting out that move).  Forced me to really buckle down, study the markets intensely and hone my skills so that's what I've been doing for a few years now.  

I'm game for an offline chat if folks are so inclined.
olegrey
Newbie
*
Offline Offline

Activity: 83
Merit: 0


View Profile
July 05, 2019, 08:18:08 PM
 #5405


It wasn't pretty. I got out break even. But at least it was simple. If anything this single observation adds to my own pile of evidence supporting the view that it is almost impossible to predict market movement. Martin Armstrong tries to defeat this - quite unsuccessfully. The difference is that he cheats using various methods that create false evidence showing that he can do it. See:

https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=1082909.msg51666429#msg51666429

Do you have anymore evidence of these phantom reversals?  Remember our rule to not make conclusions based on singular observations
s29
Jr. Member
*
Offline Offline

Activity: 184
Merit: 8


View Profile
July 05, 2019, 08:48:15 PM
 #5406

https://www.armstrongeconomics.com/world-news/central-banks/rise-in-the-euro-interesting-times-ahead/

Quote
Posted Jun 26, 2019 by Martin Armstrong

This conflict gave a boost to the Euro but the model had been calling for a rally into July



Not good, not terrible, Marty Cheesy
Of course, you could argue about what is "into July". The first few trading days, the first week, the second week, the first half etc. The endless "guessing" of mr. Armstrong just never seems to stop.
Typical Armstrong btw: first a rally, then he's starting to take notice at the intermediate top, blogs about it, then it falls. Marty, just give a heads up before a rally unfolds the next time please.
MA_talk
Member
**
Offline Offline

Activity: 226
Merit: 10


View Profile
July 05, 2019, 08:53:50 PM
 #5407

There was that one Canadian guy online here who apparently uses Socrates to trade. https://www.mininginteractive.com/ Does anyone know his performance?


i'm not a trader in any sense.  But I use Armstrong as a macro road map and i'm in the green because of it.
If i'd listened to someone like Jim Rickards who wrote The Death of the Dollar years ago and pushes gold all the time, I'd be in the red for sure.

@Kiwibird, and @over45,

I don't know how many Armstrong followers out there, or how many people are on this forum, but let's just pick a number of 10,000 people, which is probably an under-estimate.

So let's say if you just flip a coin 10,000 times, how many heads do you think you will get?  Well, about 5000.

I can tell you right now, that out of 10,000 people that follow Armstrong, the people who are in green, and who makes quite some profits, will NOT be zero.  In fact, there could be easily 15% of them, or let's say 1500 people.

But making a statement that yes, I'm in green, or that it was good for me, is NOT proving anything at all.

That's just like saying that if you flip coins, you are going to get some heads.


The fundamental problem with Armstrong's stuffs is that he always resorts to cherry-pick the good results.  You need to scrutinize on EVERY SINGLE statement, array, or every metric that Armstrong publishes.

WHY?  Because you need to know whether the model is producing a profit.

If I trade with hindsight, WTF, of course, I know statement #3 out of 100 statements from Armstrong was so correct, and I missed a big profit.  But what about #4 to #100, and #1 and #2?  

You canNOT make any profits from hindsight.  The ONLY way to evaluate statement#101 from Armstrong is to evaluate the profitability of statement #1 to #100, and see if on the average you get a profit.

How else are you going to know whether you should make a trade based on statement#101?


I did my own due diligence, and I have concluded that Armstrong's timing array does NOT work in general.  I will not argue that there are times that his array DID work, but what's most important is whether it works above average to enable you to profit consistently.
MA_talk
Member
**
Offline Offline

Activity: 226
Merit: 10


View Profile
July 05, 2019, 09:01:42 PM
 #5408

....

To me there's no question that this guy is super smart and has learned very good trading instincts but just like anyone he's human and will inject his personal bias at times even if he says it's the computer.  The key is to be able to use it as a reference rather than using it as gospel to trade or you will lose money.  His macro level views are exceptional and I've yet to see anyone else even get close to thinking out of the box like he can.

Armstrong's macro view are "exceptional"Huh  He calls bitcoin to trade lower, and the opposite has happened.  That is just one example of his exceptional macro view.

AnonymousCoder
Member
**
Offline Offline

Activity: 580
Merit: 17


View Profile
July 05, 2019, 09:13:04 PM
Last edit: July 20, 2021, 06:36:31 PM by AnonymousCoder
 #5409

...
https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=1082909.msg51666429#msg51666429
Do you have anymore evidence of these phantom reversals? Remember our rule to not make conclusions based on singular observations

In this particular case, I nee only ONE. yes, ONE. This one:

https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=1082909.msg51666429#msg51666429

If you go to jail for a crime, do you think you need to commit the crime 100 times otherwise you get the Get Out of Jail Free card ?




 Kiss

Martin Armstrong is a charlatan, and he spent 11 years in jail for that reason but he has not changed.

Read this blog starting here to find out more about computerized fraud.


See armstrongecmscam.blogspot.com for a more compact view of major findings posted in this blog.

Every single defrauded person should report their case, see Where and how to complain
MA_talk
Member
**
Offline Offline

Activity: 226
Merit: 10


View Profile
July 05, 2019, 09:15:47 PM
 #5410

....
Do you have anymore evidence of these phantom reversals?  Remember our rule to not make conclusions based on singular observations

If a lie is CAUGHT, why is there a need to catch another LIE?  A lie is a lie.  It doesn't matter if it is mixed in with 10000 other true statements, or just 1 other true statement.  If it is a lie, it is a lie.

Some other lying examples:

So Armstrong claimed that his office building is about to be completed, when he is just time-sharing offices with others.

So Armstrong claimed that the energy cost alone for running his super-computer system some $6 million dollar, which is almost 100% capacity of Supercomputer Sequoia, contracted to be built for US government.

So Armstrong claimed that ECM date is accurate down to the day, when he himself claimed that the last ECM date was both 10/7/2015, and 10/1/2015.  So how is that accurate down to the day, when he cannot make up his mind?

So why should anyone trust in somebody who lies on such critical things, such as ECM date, especially when that is what Armstrong known for?


Gumbi
Copper Member
Newbie
*
Offline Offline

Activity: 168
Merit: 0


View Profile
July 05, 2019, 09:59:51 PM
 #5411

DanB1 a  live trade as promised I have entered a short position on the Dow at 26900 looking to exit around the 26550 area

Please allow for private messages to be sent to you
MTL4
Newbie
*
Offline Offline

Activity: 62
Merit: 0


View Profile
July 05, 2019, 11:42:36 PM
 #5412

DanB1 a  live trade as promised I have entered a short position on the Dow at 26900 looking to exit around the 26550 area

Please allow for private messages to be sent to you

Looks like pretty strong support around the DOW 26750 mark so I'll be curious to see how this trade does.
olegrey
Newbie
*
Offline Offline

Activity: 83
Merit: 0


View Profile
July 05, 2019, 11:46:18 PM
 #5413

https://www.armstrongeconomics.com/world-news/central-banks/rise-in-the-euro-interesting-times-ahead/

Quote
Posted Jun 26, 2019 by Martin Armstrong

This conflict gave a boost to the Euro but the model had been calling for a rally into July

https://i.imgur.com/aCnu6MG.png

Not good, not terrible, Marty Cheesy
Of course, you could argue about what is "into July". The first few trading days, the first week, the second week, the first half etc. The endless "guessing" of mr. Armstrong just never seems to stop.
Typical Armstrong btw: first a rally, then he's starting to take notice at the intermediate top, blogs about it, then it falls. Marty, just give a heads up before a rally unfolds the next time please.
Definition of "into" : used as a function word to indicate entry, introduction, insertion, superposition, or inclusion.  This means the entry into july, or the few weeks preceding July would have a rally, which was indicated by the weekly bullish reversal on 6/7/19 and 6/21/19
olegrey
Newbie
*
Offline Offline

Activity: 83
Merit: 0


View Profile
July 06, 2019, 12:31:15 AM
 #5414

...
https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=1082909.msg51666429#msg51666429
Do you have anymore evidence of these phantom reversals?  Remember our rule to not make conclusions based on singular observations

In this particular case, I nee only ONE. yes, ONE. This one:

https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=1082909.msg51666429#msg51666429

If you go to jail for a crime, do you think you need to commit the crime 100 times otherwise you get the Get Out of Jail Free card https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Get_Out_of_Jail_Free_card ?

 Kiss


Read this blog starting at page 273 to find out more about computerized fraud
The socrates user manual on pg. 13 states,

"When a market is very bearish, it can generate a bearish Reversal that is higher than the peak of a reaction
rally and elect it simultaneously with being generated. This takes place normally with the broader long-term
Reversals. It is an indication that it is very bearish. "

I assume the same holds true for bullish reversals.  From the manual it would appear that a bullish reversal that is elected while simultaneously generated would mean the market is very bullish.  This means that the election of this reversal is a strong signal.  By looking at gold from the low on may, I would say that the market is very bullish. Remember that there is a 3 week window to trade an elected reversal so there would be plenty of time to trade this reversal.  That is why I ask for more evidence of these "phantom reversals", to see if they do in fact signal a strong move.  If other "phantom reversals" don't result in a strong move, then I'll start to question  what these reversals actually mean.

Where are you getting your evidence that Armstrong codes these reversals in after the fact? Wouldn't it make more sense that socrates is generating these reversals than Armstrong manually coding them in for over a 1000 markets everyday?
MTL4
Newbie
*
Offline Offline

Activity: 62
Merit: 0


View Profile
July 06, 2019, 01:16:28 AM
 #5415

Armstrong's macro view are "exceptional"Huh  He calls bitcoin to trade lower, and the opposite has happened.  That is just one example of his exceptional macro view.

Bitcoin is not what I would call a macro view, but yes, I agree though he definitely got bitcoin wrong too.
AnonymousCoder
Member
**
Offline Offline

Activity: 580
Merit: 17


View Profile
July 06, 2019, 01:47:54 AM
Last edit: July 20, 2021, 06:36:23 PM by AnonymousCoder
 #5416

...
https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=1082909.msg51666429#msg51666429
Do you have anymore evidence of these phantom reversals? Remember our rule to not make conclusions based on singular observations

In this particular case, I nee only ONE. yes, ONE. This one:

https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=1082909.msg51666429#msg51666429

If you go to jail for a crime, do you think you need to commit the crime 100 times otherwise you get the Get Out of Jail Free card https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Get_Out_of_Jail_Free_card ?

 Kiss


Read this blog starting at page 273 to find out more about computerized fraud
The socrates user manual on pg. 13 states,

"When a market is very bearish, it can generate a bearish Reversal that is higher than the peak of a reaction
rally and elect it simultaneously with being generated. This takes place normally with the broader long-term
Reversals. It is an indication that it is very bearish. "

I assume the same holds true for bullish reversals. From the manual it would appear that a bullish reversal that is elected while simultaneously generated would mean the market is very bullish. This means that the election of this reversal is a strong signal. By looking at gold from the low on may, I would say that the market is very bullish. Remember that there is a 3 week window to trade an elected reversal so there would be plenty of time to trade this reversal. That is why I ask for more evidence of these "phantom reversals", to see if they do in fact signal a strong move. If other "phantom reversals" don't result in a strong move, then I'll start to question what these reversals actually mean.

Where are you getting your evidence that Armstrong codes these reversals in after the fact? Wouldn't it make more sense that Socrates is generating these reversals than Armstrong manually coding them in for over a 1000 markets everyday?

Different case. The case you are referring to would be extremely bullish to the extent that the reversal system is exhausted, meaning no more bullish reversals are available for election. That is the reason why these phantom reversals would need to be generated and elected at the same time.

However, in this case, we have multiple reversals already lined up for election that are just getting pushed higher and are failing.

There is NO case for reversals of the same direction being generated and immediately elected while other reversals of the same direction nearby are ignored.

Would it not occur to you that after so much noise I made about this case https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=1082909.msg51666429#msg51666429 , linking to it in about every 2nd post, people more competent than you would have shredded the case to bits? Do you think that these people are blind and you are the only one who can see?

I think you are over-estimating your skills here. Where is your logical thinking?

You are also very late with this, so late that it appears that you are just looking for something to vent your frustration. I will ignore you for now, so do not expect any more replies from me.

Read about Revision Signals at

https://armstrongecmscam.blogspot.com/2019/07/revision-signals.html

Martin Armstrong is a charlatan, and he spent 11 years in jail for that reason but he has not changed.

Read this blog starting here to find out more about computerized fraud.


See armstrongecmscam.blogspot.com for a more compact view of major findings posted in this blog.

Every single defrauded person should report their case, see Where and how to complain
olegrey
Newbie
*
Offline Offline

Activity: 83
Merit: 0


View Profile
July 06, 2019, 03:13:12 AM
 #5417

...
https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=1082909.msg51666429#msg51666429
Do you have anymore evidence of these phantom reversals?  Remember our rule to not make conclusions based on singular observations

In this particular case, I nee only ONE. yes, ONE. This one:

https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=1082909.msg51666429#msg51666429

If you go to jail for a crime, do you think you need to commit the crime 100 times otherwise you get the Get Out of Jail Free card https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Get_Out_of_Jail_Free_card ?

 Kiss


Read this blog starting at page 273 to find out more about computerized fraud
The socrates user manual on pg. 13 states,

"When a market is very bearish, it can generate a bearish Reversal that is higher than the peak of a reaction
rally and elect it simultaneously with being generated. This takes place normally with the broader long-term
Reversals. It is an indication that it is very bearish. "

I assume the same holds true for bullish reversals.  From the manual it would appear that a bullish reversal that is elected while simultaneously generated would mean the market is very bullish.  This means that the election of this reversal is a strong signal.  By looking at gold from the low on may, I would say that the market is very bullish. Remember that there is a 3 week window to trade an elected reversal so there would be plenty of time to trade this reversal.  That is why I ask for more evidence of these "phantom reversals", to see if they do in fact signal a strong move.  If other "phantom reversals" don't result in a strong move, then I'll start to question  what these reversals actually mean.

Where are you getting your evidence that Armstrong codes these reversals in after the fact? Wouldn't it make more sense that Socrates is generating these reversals than Armstrong manually coding them in for over a 1000 markets everyday?

Different case. The case you are referring to would be extremely bullish to the extent that the reversal system is exhausted, meaning no more bullish reversals are available for election. That is the reason why these phantom reversals would need to be generated and elected at the same time.

However, in this case, we have multiple reversals already lined up for election that are just getting pushed higher and are failing.

There is NO case for reversals of the same direction being generated and immediately elected while other reversals of the same direction nearby are ignored.

Would it not occur to you that after so much noise I made about this case https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=1082909.msg51666429#msg51666429 , linking to it in about every 2nd post, people more competent than you would have shredded the case to bits? Do you think that these people are blind and you are the only one who can see?

I think you are over-estimating your skills here. Where is your logical thinking?

You are also very late with this, so late that it appears that you are just looking for something to vent your frustration. I will ignore you for now, so do not expect any more replies from me.

Read this blog starting at page 273 to find out more about computerized fraud

"Different case. The case you are referring to would be extremely bullish to the extent that the reversal system is exhausted, meaning no more bullish reversals are available for election. That is the reason why these phantom reversals would need to be generated and elected at the same time.

However, in this case, we have multiple reversals already lined up for election that are just getting pushed higher and are failing."

How do you know this?  It seems like you made this up. Martin's rule simply states, "When a market is very bearish, it can generate a bearish Reversal that is higher than the peak of a reaction
rally and elect it simultaneously with being generated." Nothing about the reversal system being exhausted.  Gold has been bullish since since August of 2018, so I think the rule could apply.

I'm sorry you think I'm challenging you out of frustration.  I haven't made up my mind yet about Socrates and the reversal system, but I figured I would play devil's advocate in defense of Socrates since this place seems to have become pretty anti-Armstrong.  I'm simply trying to learn.  I'm am "very late" with this because I was trying to stay on your good side to maybe get your data, but since that isn't happening I figured I would bring this point up.  Other members haven't "shredded you to bits", because many of the other members are also anti-Armstrong, so they happily accepted more "proof" that Armstrong is a fraud.  Also I brought quote up after you posted about the Dow bearish reversals as seen here

Fake Daily Reversals

I am just looking at a daily premium report a perplexed friend has sent me.

It contains an inconsistency that I would encourage you to watch:

THE SOCRATES PREMIUM DAILY COMMENTARY, THE CASH US$ INDEX AS OF THE CLOSE OF Wed. Jun. 19, 2019: THE CASH US$ INDEX closed today at 97115
...
The last Reversal elected in this market was a Daily Bearish on Tue. Jun. 18, 2019.


The question was: I cannot remember that reversal. Where was it?

That is easy to check. The same report has a daily reversal table. I checked the reversal tables of Mon. Jun. 17, 2019, and Tue. Jun. 18, 2019.

One would expect that the elected reversal would be in the previous report of Mon. Jun. 17, and that it would be missing in the report of Tue. Jun. 18, 2019.

No such thing. In both reports, the reversal tables are identical, so the elected reversal was not one of them, and the closest reversals are far away from the closing price.

This means if you just read the report without checking, it looks really nice in a way that Socrates is electing reversals successfully. Unfortunately, these are previously unpublished fake reversals, and their values are not known, either.

Are they manufactured to make Socrates look good?




lol fake reversal.  reversals can be generated and elected on the same day.

This is not something to laugh about.

Then it is a Revision Signal because if it is as you say, we receive it after the market is closed, in the next report and the reversal cannot be traded for its duration because the following day, half the period is already over. Why does such a reversal disappear the moment it is created, and why is such special signal not accounted for as such in the report? Instead it is treated the same as if it was a reversal that the user could have traded as any other.

The socrates user manual on pg. 13 states,

"When a market is very bearish, it can generate a bearish Reversal that is higher than the peak of a reaction
rally and elect it simultaneously with being generated. This takes place normally with the broader long-term
Reversals. It is an indication that it is very bearish. "

Well spotted!
In this case, which is different again, Socrates does not have any more reversals for you to trade because the reversal system is exhausted at that extremely bearish point. So to keep the show running, it creates a phantom reversal which SOCRATES trades (without telling you in time) to look profitable. You look in the rear vision mirror and say "Hang on, it is there, but I didn't see it coming". You could not trade this zero risk trade, and you miss the profit. Again, it is a REVISION SIGNAL because Socrates decides to do this only AFTER the fact, borrowing from the future. In other words, these phantom reversals ALWAYS show as being profitable - they cannot fail because they are generated after the future close price is known, but ONLY if the future price is below the previous price. So here we have the user manual discrediting the system it describes.


Read this blog starting at page 273 to find out more about computerized fraud


This is where you made up the rule about the reversal system being exhausted.
 
DanB1
Jr. Member
*
Offline Offline

Activity: 100
Merit: 1


View Profile
July 06, 2019, 07:12:30 AM
 #5418

DanB1 a  live trade as promised I have entered a short position on the Dow at 26900 looking to exit around the 26550 area

Please allow for private messages to be sent to you

Okay, thanks. Thought you were gone:)

So, entered the trade because a bullish reversal was not elected? Or a bearish was elected? Or the array's showed a turning point?
Can you please you explain? The thing is that it's not about this specific trade. It's about showing that you can trade according to the reversals and arrays and that it works and it's a repeatable process.

If you can let us know here on the blog.
Looking forward to it!
MTL4
Newbie
*
Offline Offline

Activity: 62
Merit: 0


View Profile
July 06, 2019, 08:41:25 AM
 #5419

Okay, thanks. Thought you were gone:)

So, entered the trade because a bullish reversal was not elected? Or a bearish was elected? Or the array's showed a turning point?
Can you please you explain? The thing is that it's not about this specific trade. It's about showing that you can trade according to the reversals and arrays and that it works and it's a repeatable process.

If you can let us know here on the blog.
Looking forward to it!


I’d be curious what the technicals were behind this trade too (with the key being that it’s repeatable).
DanB1
Jr. Member
*
Offline Offline

Activity: 100
Merit: 1


View Profile
July 06, 2019, 11:53:04 AM
 #5420

DanB1 a  live trade as promised I have entered a short position on the Dow at 26900 looking to exit around the 26550 area

Please allow for private messages to be sent to you

Okay, thanks. Thought you were gone:)

So, entered the trade because a bullish reversal was not elected? Or a bearish was elected? Or the array's showed a turning point?
Can you please you explain? The thing is that it's not about this specific trade. It's about showing that you can trade according to the reversals and arrays and that it works and it's a repeatable process.

If you can let us know here on the blog.
Looking forward to it!

@Gumbi, maybe you can show a screen dump, so I can see what you're doing and why you would enter this trade.

Many thanks
Pages: « 1 ... 221 222 223 224 225 226 227 228 229 230 231 232 233 234 235 236 237 238 239 240 241 242 243 244 245 246 247 248 249 250 251 252 253 254 255 256 257 258 259 260 261 262 263 264 265 266 267 268 269 270 [271] 272 273 274 275 276 277 278 279 280 281 282 283 284 285 286 287 288 289 290 291 292 293 294 295 296 297 298 299 300 301 302 303 304 305 306 307 308 309 310 311 312 313 314 315 316 317 318 319 320 321 ... 373 »
  Print  
 
Jump to:  

Powered by MySQL Powered by PHP Powered by SMF 1.1.19 | SMF © 2006-2009, Simple Machines Valid XHTML 1.0! Valid CSS!