Martin Armstrong Discussion

[AnonymousCoder]

Wow some real BS in this thread, a lot of it from "newbies" like me. Mostly in support of MA. Tells me something.......

Very motivated by an agenda?

Yes. there are a few core people doing real research. Martin Armstrong is paying a multi-purpose troll as a counter weight. That troll has been using different Ids. Peddles the Socrates system how great it is sprinkled with some fake questions such as wanting to understand the arrays - of course also promoting the conference and so on. Some stories have already been posted by Armstrong himself on the public blog so it is fairly easy to spot, like the BIIB crash pattern match found in the Global Market Watch by coincidence. Not too difficult to pick one success story from 1,000 markets covered by Socrates. All Smoke and mirrors, made up.

Look, we have to realize that Martin Armstrong is a con man and most of what he posts is 3rd party stuff, and when it it his own then 50% or more is just show, invented to promote his services.

All a big show by essentially a one man band. Have you seen an "About Us" page on his web site? No. I am thinking of creating it here in this blog

Martin Armstrong is a charlatan, and he spent 11 years in jail for that reason but he has not changed.

Read this blog starting here to find out more about computerized fraud.


See armstrongecmscam.blogspot.com for a more compact view of major findings posted in this blog.

Every single defrauded person should report their case, see Where and how to complain

[1714309623]

1714309623

[1714309623]

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[1714309623]

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[over45]

For those who do not know over45 is a Martin Armstrong affiliated troll who posts using multiple IDs such as Gumbi ... gets paid for posting here. Not a single word is true.

The moderators can easily dispel this untruth -- unlike the malfeasance you spew.

Last comment because this is a huge waste of time posting here:  experience counts for something and MA's been in the trenches for decades and you haven't.   Nothing you say matters.

Thanks to the poster who messaged me with info on gold. 

[olegrey]

MTL4, it has been my observation as well that the private blog posts are more accurate than the ones in the Socrates system, as far as reversal. I also had someone message me on reddit that the system itself had some features that were not available to the end user- this person had used some computer wizardry to 'coax out' those features and showed me proof but I believe they are the same as the 150 dollar pro user. This makes me think that the automated ones are different than the fixed ones, or perhaps as Anon says, Armstrong is using his own analysis to cherry pick the ones he thinks are better. And if the Reversals do need 3 periods to go, then it is possible that the performance will be better. But it still does not take away from the fact that Armstrong has made many losing calls and he can be used only as a confirmation tool.

Been very busy lately but I'll try to start the backtest of reversals on the private blog over the weekend.

If you willing to share your data, I'd be more than willing to help analyze!  I'll send you my email in a private message

[AnonymousCoder]

MTL4, it has been my observation as well that the private blog posts are more accurate than the ones in the Socrates system, as far as reversal. I also had someone message me on reddit that the system itself had some features that were not available to the end user- this person had used some computer wizardry to 'coax out' those features and showed me proof but I believe they are the same as the 150 dollar pro user. This makes me think that the automated ones are different than the fixed ones, or perhaps as Anon says, Armstrong is using his own analysis to cherry pick the ones he thinks are better. And if the Reversals do need 3 periods to go, then it is possible that the performance will be better. But it still does not take away from the fact that Armstrong has made many losing calls and he can be used only as a confirmation tool.

Been very busy lately but I'll try to start the backtest of reversals on the private blog over the weekend.

Martin Armstrong early in his writings where he described his discovery of the reversal system, also described an assumption, that can be found in all of his systems, as follows (I am quoting from memory):

If some rule holds in one time frame then it must hold in all time frames. This applies to reversals and forecast arrays.

Then the next one is that all so-called models are applied to all markets in the same fashion, regardless of the type of market - stocks, commodities, currencies.

Another problem is that the forecast arrays are not sensitive to the strength of the market moves. We will always get turning points, up/down predictions even if there is no indication of sufficient momentum to even consider these signals. I am sure that anyone who studied them will have noticed.

To combine these concepts and apply them to systems as non-linear as financial markets is extremely naive. I honestly think that the guy is crazy, reckless beyond any description.

You can see the fatal consequences of this in Socrates. For example, currencies are a total disaster, as also confirmed by another poster earlier in this thread: https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=1082909.msg51605753#msg51605753

So how does Martin Armstrong get out of this mess? Answer: By means of a patchwork of adjustments, and (sometimes fraudulent as I have shown here in this blog) tricks. Part of the adjustment process is that he knows from experience which models work in which markets best, and which models in which markets work best in specific market conditions. This is extremely important because the reversal system is a trend following system that has zero chance of success in a mainly sideways trading market such as now.

Even then, when Gold developed a clear trend in a seven week rally such as described in

https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=1082909.msg51666429#msg51666429

, the reversal system failed to elect even a single weekly reversal. What I am trying to say here is that we do not necessarily see the opportunities that the system misses.

The problem is that his programs are so shallow and of poor quality, that these programs do not self-adjust. Obviously as I have to say because I can see it in the results.

For Martin Armstrong however, this is not a conflict wide enough to not be worked around by some kind of evasive strategy. In this case, cherry-picking is the right term. He would cherry-pick the markets and market conditions for his block posts. Therefore, analyzing the performance of his models by inspecting the predictions made in the blog posts is not useful, because you will not be able to cherry-pick from Socrates reports the way that he does. Still, his blog post forecasts have failed occasionally.

Now to think that he has some kind of super-Socrates in his garage is a myth, and the myth will perhaps grow bigger as he gets older. These myths always develop around shady personalities who do not work in a scientific manner. People need these myths as much they need UFOs or the dream of human life on Mars. We would really need a proof that he has such as separate system. That is the way I am operating. It is perhaps possible that two distinct systems exist because of some legacy transition process. But I can tell you from my professional IT experience, that it would be a nightmare to technically maintain two separate systems with the resources that he has (a single programmer), even assuming that his systems are of minimal complexity which I do (after having seen the output they produce).



Martin Armstrong is a charlatan, and he spent 11 years in jail for that reason but he has not changed.

Read this blog starting here to find out more about computerized fraud.


See armstrongecmscam.blogspot.com for a more compact view of major findings posted in this blog.

Every single defrauded person should report their case, see Where and how to complain

[olegrey]

MTL4, it has been my observation as well that the private blog posts are more accurate than the ones in the Socrates system, as far as reversal. I also had someone message me on reddit that the system itself had some features that were not available to the end user- this person had used some computer wizardry to 'coax out' those features and showed me proof but I believe they are the same as the 150 dollar pro user. This makes me think that the automated ones are different than the fixed ones, or perhaps as Anon says, Armstrong is using his own analysis to cherry pick the ones he thinks are better. And if the Reversals do need 3 periods to go, then it is possible that the performance will be better. But it still does not take away from the fact that Armstrong has made many losing calls and he can be used only as a confirmation tool.

Been very busy lately but I'll try to start the backtest of reversals on the private blog over the weekend.

Martin Armstrong early in his writings where he described his discovery of the reversal system, also described an assumption, that can be found in all of his systems, as follows (I am quoting from memory):

If some rule holds in one time frame then it must hold in all time frames. This applies to reversals and forecast arrays.

Then the next one is that all so-called models are applied to all markets in the same fashion, regardless of the type of market - stocks, commodities, currencies.

To combine these concepts and apply them to systems as non-linear as financial markets is extremely naive. I honestly think that the guy is crazy, reckless beyond any description.

You can see the fatal consequences of this in Socrates. For example, currencies are a total disaster, as also confirmed by another poster earlier in this thread: https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=1082909.msg51605753#msg51605753

So how does Martin Armstrong get out of this mess? Answer: By means of a patchwork of adjustments, and (sometimes fraudulent as I have shown here in this blog) tricks. Part of the adjustment process is that he knows from experience which models work in which markets best, and which models in which markets work best in specific market conditions. This is extremely important because the reversal system is a trend following system that has zero chance of success in a mainly sideways trading market such as now.

Even then, when Gold developed a clear trend in a seven week rally such as described in

https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=1082909.msg51666429#msg51666429

, the reversal system failed to elect even a single weekly reversal. What I am trying to say here is that we do not necessarily see the opportunities that the system misses.

The problem is that his programs are so shallow and of poor quality, that these programs do not self-adjust. Obviously as I have to say because I can see it in the results.

For Martin Armstrong however, this is not a conflict wide enough to not be worked around by some kind of evasive strategy. In this case, cherry-picking is the right term. He would cherry-pick the markets and market conditions for his block posts. Therefore, analyzing the performance of his models by inspecting the predictions made in the blog posts is not useful, because you will not be able to cherry-pick from Socrates reports the way that he does. Still, his blog post forecasts have failed occasionally.

Now to think that he has some kind of super-Socrates in his garage is a myth, and the myth will perhaps grow bigger as he gets older. These myths always develop around shady personalities who do not work in a scientific manner. People need these myths as much they need UFOs or the dream of human life on Mars. We would really need a proof that he has such as separate system. That is the way I am operating. It is perhaps possible that two distinct systems exist because of some legacy transition process. But I can tell you from my professional IT experience, that it would be a nightmare to technically maintain two separate systems with the resources that he has (a single programmer), even assuming that his systems are of minimal complexity which I do (after having seen the output they produce).

According to the three timeframe rule his reversal system did successfully predict the rise in the eur/usd

week 1: EUR/USD weekly bullish 1.1% loss
Week 2: EUR/USD weekly bullish 0.4% gain
Week 3:  EUR/USD weekly bullish 0.3% gain

[AnonymousCoder]

According to the three timeframe rule his reversal system did successfully predict the rise in the eur/usd

week 1: EUR/USD weekly bullish 1.1% loss
Week 2: EUR/USD weekly bullish 0.4% gain
Week 3: EUR/USD weekly bullish 0.3% gain
[/quote]

olegrey, you are a genius. You have graduated to the three star degree of a data meta-science engineer.

You mastered the extraordinary challenge of single observation based statistics.


Martin Armstrong is a charlatan, and he spent 11 years in jail for that reason but he has not changed.

Read this blog starting here to find out more about computerized fraud.


See armstrongecmscam.blogspot.com for a more compact view of major findings posted in this blog.

Every single defrauded person should report their case, see Where and how to complain

[olegrey]

According to the three timeframe rule his reversal system did successfully predict the rise in the eur/usd

week 1: EUR/USD weekly bullish 1.1% loss
Week 2: EUR/USD weekly bullish 0.4% gain
Week 3:  EUR/USD weekly bullish 0.3% gain

olegrey, you are a genius. You have graduated to the three star degree of a data meta-science engineer.
[/quote]
I'm simply refuting your point that "currencies were a total disaster".  Why do you feel the need to be sarcastic when challenged?

[AnonymousCoder]

I'm simply refuting your point that "currencies were a total disaster". Why do you feel the need to be sarcastic when challenged?

Because a one third of a single sample is not a challenge. You have cherry picked the situation of 3 weeks trading period out of three possibilities 1, 2, 3 weeks. Can't you see that is the ultimate joke? olegrey, this is not the sort of stuff for you. Try making pizza or something like that. More fun.

If you had 500 samples, and out of 500, more than 250 would be profitable, then I would feel challenged


Martin Armstrong is a charlatan, and he spent 11 years in jail for that reason but he has not changed.

Read this blog starting here to find out more about computerized fraud.


See armstrongecmscam.blogspot.com for a more compact view of major findings posted in this blog.

Every single defrauded person should report their case, see Where and how to complain

[olegrey]

I'm simply refuting your point that "currencies were a total disaster".  Why do you feel the need to be sarcastic when challenged?

Because a one third of a single sample is not a challenge. You have cherry picked the situation of 3 weeks trading period out of three possibilities 1, 2, 3 weeks. Can't you see that is the ultimate joke? olegrey, this is not the sort of stuff for you. Try making pizza or something like that. More fun.

If you had 500 samples, and out of 500, more than 250 would be profitable, then I would feel challenged

ARE YOU SERIOUS!?!? I have basically begged for your reversal data so that I wouldn't have to make an observation on a single sample, and then you have the gall to insult me because I don't have access to the information you refuse to provide.

I don't care about the "phantom reversals", arrays, GMW, Armstrong's commentary,  or Socrates commentary.  My one and only goal is to test the 3 timeframe rule on reversals that have been posted and subsequently elected. 

What is your goal on this forum? To help people stop people spending their time and money on Armstrong's predications and to stop buying his subscriptions?  Well you're basically telling me I have to  spend years worth of time and money to get the same data that you are privy to now, just to test my theory.

Do you want compensation for the reversal data, do you have a paypal or venmo?  Maybe 75$ for all the Dow data since the data will only be used for analysis purposes.  Please, if the reversals are as useless as you say they are, then let me test my theory and come to the same conclusion as you!

[AnonymousCoder]

...
Do you want compensation for the reversal data, do you have a paypal or venmo? Maybe 75$ for all the Dow data since the data will only be used for analysis purposes. Please, if the reversals are as useless as you say they are, then let me test my theory and come to the same conclusion as you!

I do not have an obligation to share data with any 3rd party.

If you think that I do, because it appears to you not doing so would be inconsistent with what you think should be my agenda, then you are wrong.

For me, what counts are facts, and I am a person of high integrity.

Therefore, I cannot become corrupted.

Selling this data would be corrupt.

Sharing this data would perhaps violate the Socrates terms of use.


What REALLY needs to happen is that Socrates provides historical data, the real one, not the corrupted one as in https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=1082909.msg51666429#msg51666429

Please everybody who reads this ask Socrates Customer Support <support@ask-socrates.com> to supply report files, historical data, daily, weekly, monthly elected reversals, blog posts history since the start of the Socrates service in 2016. As a function of the Socrates service, available without subscription, on a daily basis. So that interested potential customers can evaluate the system before subscribing.

Martin Armstrong is a charlatan, and he spent 11 years in jail for that reason but he has not changed.

Read this blog starting here to find out more about computerized fraud.


See armstrongecmscam.blogspot.com for a more compact view of major findings posted in this blog.

Every single defrauded person should report their case, see Where and how to complain

[nattybear]

No new highs in 2019
Oh wait, that's commentary! It doesn't count!

We may do this, but if that, then that also, as long as this and that which may be a high or a low so the opposite should take place at this number 2 days from now as long as we hold that other number that is 1,000 points away unless it is an inversion which can also happen depending on this other number that is also far away.
Oh he got it right! See? Socrates is amazing, even if I lost money on it.

But MTL4, my experiences and thoughts on Socrates are similar to yours. I have also learned things from Armstrong that I have modified and incorporated in my own trading with tremendous success to the point where it won't even be believed by most. But that's fine, its all about the gains anyway. I still respect him as a guy who can think differently and give out new ideas- its just that they frequently don't work and he won't admit it either. One must not be drawn in by him, no matter what he says.

Ah yes another MA prediction has fallen short. 2019 was a consolidation year... No new highs, no lower lows. Yet here we are - all-time highs across the board.

[AnonymousCoder]

...
Ah yes another MA prediction has fallen short. 2019 was a consolidation year... No new highs, no lower lows. Yet here we are - all-time highs across the board.

Could you please provide the URL where Martin Armstrong predicted this. Many thanks. I also see that the CAC-40 French stock market has a new high. He predicted a turning point recently, see https://www.armstrongeconomics.com/future-forecasts/forecasting-turning-points/

but I haven't found the original message where he predicted that this would be THE high as I remember.


Martin Armstrong is a charlatan, and he spent 11 years in jail for that reason but he has not changed.

Read this blog starting here to find out more about computerized fraud.


See armstrongecmscam.blogspot.com for a more compact view of major findings posted in this blog.

Every single defrauded person should report their case, see Where and how to complain

[nattybear]

...
Ah yes another MA prediction has fallen short. 2019 was a consolidation year... No new highs, no lower lows. Yet here we are - all-time highs across the board.

Could you please provide the URL where Martin Armstrong predicted this. Many thanks. I also see that the CAC-40 French stock market has a new high. He predicted a turning point recently, see https://www.armstrongeconomics.com/future-forecasts/forecasting-turning-points/

but I haven't found the original message where he predicted that this would be THE high as I remember.

He's been calling it for most of this year so a dig through blog posts will uncover numerous comments.

A selection is below from the posts that I received while having the Pro subscription so not all links may be publicly accessible.


1st April 2019 “The Share Market Outloo” (Yes - Outloo - that was his typo)

While we DO NOT yet see new highs unfolding above 2018 until we enter 2020, what does emerge here is that we appear to be building a much high base during this period of a downward cycle.

https://ask-socrates.com/Blog/Article/5ca180547bc98d092c1efdad


2nd April 2019 “The Dow - Euro - Capital Flows”

We can see that our Energy models on the Weekly Level continue to make new record high even though the Dow has not made new high above that of 2018. This model alone is confirming we are going to make new historical high beyond 2020

https://ask-socrates.com/Blog/Article/5ca2c76e1dd9531104b93d30


14th May 2019 “Dow for May 14, 2019”

That this is still a consolidation period and it is not likely to change until we enter 2020.

https://ask-socrates.com/Blog/Article/5cdaaead1dd95316c8c07acb


15th May 2019 “Dow for May 15th, 2019”

Once more, we do not yet see a major correction of 40% as most seem to be calling. We are consolidating ideally for 2 years from the 2018 high into 2020 before any breakout unfolds.

https://ask-socrates.com/Blog/Article/5cdbb8de7bc98d0e00ad5587


6th June 2019 “The Dow into July”

Once again, we do not see a breakout to the upside until the ECM turns and likewise, we do not see a major crash.

https://ask-socrates.com/Blog/Article/5cf922077bc98d1474efd2d0

[DanB1]

Recent interview on Financial Survival Network:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?time_continue=1340&v=DHvPuNOPWVg

'From summer rally going into a decline this fall, until it finally turns in 2020' (around minute 42:00)


I remember he called earlier for a high in July, can't find the exact blogpost.

[blinder007]

I already expressed my thoughts about the MA and Socrates in post no 5709 on June 28

In several posts here other commentators were talking about Socrates being a system.

A trading system needs at least the following parts: 
-   1 A rule how to Enter into a position in a market
-   2 If a position is entered immediately set the level where you put your stop loss order
-   3 Rules how to manage the trade if the market goes in the desired direction until the trade is closed out
-   4 Money Management Rules: how much do I risk per trade (less is better!)
                                                  If I trade multiple markets at the same time how much is my total risk (again less is better – your survival rate in the market goes up!)

Now most Advisors/Gurus/Websites/”Systems” touted on the internet and on “Trading Shows” tell you about point no 1 (the Entry).
Now in my opinion points 2 to 4 together are more important than no 1.
But in MA and Socrates he doesn’t even give a clearly mathematically defined Entry.
And all the other points are not even mentioned.
Also to calculate point 4 you need to be able to do historical testing over long periods (the longer the better) with the exact rules. This will give you a lot of the data needed to decide if and how to trade the system and on what portfolio.
You might find out that the great System generated 15% pa return but had twice a drawdown in excess of 50 %.  So nobody would be able to trade that from a mental/and stomach perspective.
So,  Socrates does not even provide the Entries. Also it turned now out, that the nice looking Charts with the Arrows he sometimes uses on his blog, are not from the reversals of his site.
So MA and Socrates does not provide a System. Nowhere on his site (free to pro subscriber).
Also without going through some  extensing testing over long  historical data sets you cannot make a call on the points 2 to 4.
So in my opinion nobody can trade  with that information provided successfully and with confidence over a longer time.

So I have to give it a fat thumbs DOWN

[MTL4]

I understand there's people here that want to prove this guy is an idiot at all costs but for me as trader I could care less if he's crazy, reckless, lying or whatever.  All I care about is if any of his stuff works at all and if so what can I use to make my trades more profitable.  I believe there are some good concepts in what he talks about but you need to be able to discern good from bad in order to use any of it. Having created my own system which does work I can tell you markets are definitely fractal and often self-referring so that much is true (from my experience anyway).  Same thing with cycles, they are extremely complex but they appear to not be entirely random (again from my experience).  No supercomputer(s) in the world has the ability to figure out all the events that lead up to a given outcome (we're talking butterfly flaps it's wings, nearly infinite possibilities).  The question is more whether or not there is some other timing at work that would allow you to predict future outcomes/events without knowing all the details of how you arrive there.  I personally haven't finished ruling that out and I think doing so would assume we already know everything there is about how it all works (obviously wrong too).  This issue I've seen when trading is that as you go down into smaller time frames noise (volatility, manipulations,  interference, etc) becomes far more pronounced and makes reading the markets far harder than it did before algos were in use and central banks were buying equities.   I suspect MA's original system (assuming it exists) would have much more effective back before this as well.  This noise in the markets causes alot more headfakes, false breakouts, etc so you have to be that much better at screening it all out which is why the larger time frames are much more accurate (again from my experience).

Now as I've stated, MA's public Socrates project I agree is not worth any further effort IMHO.  I have tried it and would never trade using it for any reason.  Everything I have seen folks comment on in this thread was based on this project only.  So from that standpoint I totally agree but over the years he's made some pretty stunning calls that appeared out of left field (he even called the Patriots loss to the Eagles prior to the game, WTF?).  Is he just randomly lucky that the math works and his prediction correct or is there something else there?  I would argue the probability is extremely low that is the case (it's like getting a hole-in-one, how many does a golfer get over a career?).  His day-to-day stuff I don't listen to anymore because it's far too fuzzy and confusing (and often wrong).  This issue I would bring up is what about his other work which was correct?  Claiming his other system is a myth is also pure speculation, is there any proof of this?  If not then I would suggest everyone to stick to straight facts of what you can actually prove because as you pointed out that is what we are really after.  Not attacking anyone but I think facts are very important when discussing topics like this.

[Indyz]

....... And the beatings will continue until morale improves

[olegrey]

...
Do you want compensation for the reversal data, do you have a paypal or venmo?  Maybe 75$ for all the Dow data since the data will only be used for analysis purposes.  Please, if the reversals are as useless as you say they are, then let me test my theory and come to the same conclusion as you!

I do not have an obligation to share data with any 3rd party.

If you think that I do, because it appears to you not doing so would be inconsistent with what you think should be my agenda, then you are wrong.

For me, what counts are facts, and I am a person of high integrity.

Therefore, I cannot become corrupted.

Selling this data would be corrupt.

Sharing this data would perhaps violate the Socrates terms of use.


What REALLY needs to happen is that Socrates provides historical data, the real one, not the corrupted one as in https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=1082909.msg51666429#msg51666429

Please everybody who reads this ask Socrates Customer Support <support@ask-socrates.com> to supply report files, historical data, daily, weekly, monthly elected reversals, blog posts history since the start of the Socrates service in 2016. As a function of the Socrates service, available without subscription, on a daily basis. So that interested potential customers can evaluate the system before subscribing.

Read this blog starting at page 273 to find out more about computerized fraud

No you don't have an obligation to share anything and I apologize for being so persistent because I really believed we could finally get to the bottom of the reversals.  You refuse to share so I guess we will continue to flounder.  However I disagree that you are a person of high integrity.  Where was your integrity when you advocated that I should lie about being from the SEC to the Socrates customer support to get historical reversal data.  

See Socrates Customer Support, say you are from the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) and request reversal history of the last 2 years monthly, weekly, daily.

Read this blog starting at page 273 to find out more about computerized fraud

Where was your qualms about violating the Socrates terms of service when you shared this data.  

Something to learn from

No new Weekly Reversals for Gold, sorry.

Some history is always useful. As Socrates does not provide it (how would a shoddy system like that do) ...

Date Elected: 2019-06-21
"THE CASH US$ INDEX" Weekly Bearish: 96384, Close: 96220, 2019-06-28 close: 96130, 0.1% gain
"US Dollar v Euro Adjusted Spot" Weekly Bullish: 11343, Close: 11373, 2019-06-28 Close: 11370, 0.0% break even
"US Dollar v Japanese Yen Spot" Weekly Bearish: 107980, Close: 107320, 2019-06-28 Close: 107320, 0.5% loss
"Russian Rubles Cash" Weekly Bearish: 641287: Close: 630246, 2019-06-28 Close: 630246, 0.3% loss
"Cotton #2 (NYCE)" Weekly Bearish: 6540, Close: 6119, 2019-06-28 Close: 6575, 7.5% loss
"Lumber (CME)" Weekly Bullish: 3923, Close: 4053, 2019-06-28 Close: 3751, 7.5% loss

That is fairly depressing.

As a competent trader in this thread noted: Run from it and enjoy life.


Read this blog starting at page 273 to find out more about computerized fraud

I can respect that you don't want to share the data, but don't act like the reason you won't share the data is because of some moral code when you have clearly violated this 'integrity' on multiple occasions.

You insult me because I disagreed with you argument that,

"You can see the fatal consequences of this in Socrates. For example, currencies are a total disaster, as also confirmed by another poster earlier in this thread: https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?"topic=1082909.msg51605753#msg51605753

The post you use as evidence states

 "I had the Pro membership of the EUR/USD until 2 weeks ago. Do you think that it gave a clear indication that the Euro would rise against the USD?
Now MA mentioned in one of his latest blogposts: "This conflict gave a boost to the Euro but the model had been calling for a rally into July after the elections which we have seen also in gold.""

I then gave the results of a bullish reversal that was elected on 6/7/19 which is as follows,

week 1: EUR/USD weekly bullish 1.1% loss
Week 2: EUR/USD weekly bullish 0.4% gain
Week 3:  EUR/USD weekly bullish 0.3% gain

This "singular observation" is related to the question of "Do you think that it gave a clear indication that the Euro would rise against the USD?" which to me, it clearly did.  In future discussions please try to hold to your "high integrity" and refrain from using insults when evidence is used to refute your arguments.  Thank you.  You still have my email in your private messages, if you ever have a change of heart and decide to share your data.  Have a Happy Fourth of July!

[AnonymousCoder]

Martin Armstrong cloned himself

For those who haven't noticed:

https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=1082909.msg51666429#msg51666429

Armstrong says that Socrates is a clone of himself. The link to his statement is at the end of the article.


Martin Armstrong is a charlatan, and he spent 11 years in jail for that reason but he has not changed.

Read this blog starting here to find out more about computerized fraud.


See armstrongecmscam.blogspot.com for a more compact view of major findings posted in this blog.

Every single defrauded person should report their case, see Where and how to complain

[olegrey]

Simplicity is better

I started shorting Brazil last week when it had the temp high. Low risk high reward. Simple to find.

No single signal in Socrates about it, actually it is still bullish from what I have heard. So far, profitable even while the start was a bit scary.

So what would have happened had I traded Socrates?

Weekly reversals elected 2019-06-07, traded for a week Friday to Friday close 2019-06-07 to 2019-06-14

$DXY weekly bearish 1% loss
EUR/USD weekly bullish 1.1% loss
GDAX weekly bullish 0.4% gain
SENSEX weekly bullish 0.4% loss
USD/CAD weekly bearish 1.0% loss
USD/CHF weekly bearish 1.2% loss
Visa weekly bullish 0.2% loss
Cotton weekly bearish 0.5% loss
Heating oil weekly bearish 0.3% loss
Natural gas weekly bearish 2.1% loss

That is a fairly good cross section of the market, of what was elected, I guess. One winner.

I would not want to extend this depressing experiment by another two weeks waiting while these trades come right while I can have a profit within a week with something better.

Read this blog starting at page 273 to find out more about computerized fraud

How did your simple to find Brazil short go?  Hopefully you got out on the day you posted this otherwise you could have taken a big loss