Bitcoin Forecast, Bitcoin Speculation & Bitcoin Technical Analysis. Up or DOWN?

[Cheeseman]

We hit the 1.95 mark. It will be interesting to see if the bulls can break through the $2 mark...I think we will start seeing orders go through at $2 today, but we will be back into the $1.6 range by this weekend. It will take another difficulty increase or two to see USD/BTC surpass the $2 mark.

[LZ]

[S3052]

All it takes is a ~20k $ order to evaporate the 2 $ level and generate upside potential way beyond that. Given the healthy technicals, a further acceleration to 5$, 10$ should not surprise people too much.

[LZ]

My short term forecast was correct.

Okay, anyway... It is going to rise UP in long term.

[LZ]

[deadlizard]

what the eff. $2 - $2.40 in a matter of seconds 

[LZ]

And it is probably just the beginning.

[2_Thumbs_Up]

I'm glad I managed to buy 600 BTC today before the rally at $1.9.

I'm not as glad that I still have more to buy with money that is coming in next week.

[bitcoinBull]

I have stopped daytrading/weektrading for the time being.  Selling is just too risky.

[ribuck]

Selling is just too risky.

Agreed. I have got it wrong every time that I have sold, and I have ended up buying back into Bitcoin at a higher price.

[Cheeseman]

We are definitely seeing a bitcoin bubble here. People are buying into the hype, but once they lose interest and sell off, the market will be down to about dollar parity again. BTC still doesn't have nearly enough buying power to justify a $2.20 exchange rate. I could understand if emerging and innovative services started appearing that drove the use of bitcoins, but prices are wildly out of control for no reason currently. Prices lately haven't even been corresponding to increases in difficulty (ie scarcity).

From a technical perspective, it appears that the bubble is not going to pop for some time. With very little resistance up until $3, we could see prices skyrocket again by this time next week.

[MoonShadow]

We are definitely seeing a bitcoin bubble here. People are buying into the hype, but once they lose interest and sell off, the market will be down to about dollar parity again. BTC still doesn't have nearly enough buying power to justify a $2.20 exchange rate.

And you know this, how?  Can you see the trade volume on Silk Road?  In Russia?  In China?  Just because the visable market is small, doesn't mean that the trade volume is entirely speculation.

[Cheeseman]

We are definitely seeing a bitcoin bubble here. People are buying into the hype, but once they lose interest and sell off, the market will be down to about dollar parity again. BTC still doesn't have nearly enough buying power to justify a $2.20 exchange rate.

And you know this, how?  Can you see the trade volume on Silk Road?  In Russia?  In China?  Just because the visable market is small, doesn't mean that the trade volume is entirely speculation.

And that may be part of the problem. There is no significant business in America/Europe that we can see. I can't see Silk Road or business from China/Russia contributing to much of the $50,000 per day volume we have been seeing traded daily. Hell, the market is too bubbly for money laundering imo. And this is just my opinion - I'm not claiming to have any omniscient powers.

 

[bitcoinBull]

I could understand if emerging and innovative services started appearing that drove the use of bitcoins, but prices are wildly out of control for no reason currently. 

The way I see it, bitcoin itself is the innovative service.  Value stored in bitcoin is more secure than any dot com, bank, or centralized authority vulnerable to fraud or the recent PSN-style penetration.  It is unseizable, untaxable, and cheaper and more accessible than offshore accounts.  Yes the value stored is speculation, but as we are seeing, with that risk also comes reward.

As long as bitcoins are liquid, the ability to buy goods with them directly has little extra benefit.  Value storage is their main purpose and main business, bitcoin itself is the innovation, and services beyond exchanging are just extra icing.


I still share the concern about bubble formation, but the record strong volume (certainly in dollar terms if not bitcoins) seems to indicate a healthy market.  However, it also seems that as experts are saying about silver, some consolidation would be healthy too.

[BitterTea]

And that may be part of the problem. There is no significant business in America/Europe that we can see. I can't see Silk Road or business from China/Russia contributing to much of the $50,000 per day volume we have been seeing traded daily. Hell, the market is too bubbly for money laundering imo. And this is just my opinion - I'm not claiming to have any omniscient powers.

How would you "see" business? That is, how would you know how many Bitcoins are being traded for goods and services each day? The only thing you can say is that there is at MOST X BTC exchanged for goods and services each day, with X being equal to the total value of all transactions in that day's blocks.

Trading volume has no inherent relation to monetary exchange volume.

[LZ]

but once they lose interest and sell off, the market will be down to about dollar parity again.

I do not agree, the exchange rate may easily soar to $3 or even $5 and then level off at $2.6 or $4.4.

Selling is just too risky.

Agreed. I have got it wrong every time that I have sold, and I have ended up buying back into Bitcoin at a higher price.

Absolutely agree. I remember how I sold bitcoins for $0.4, but the exchange rate then rised to $1.

[Current-C]

Whatever you call it I wouldn't say it's a bubble.  The entire Bitcoin economy isn't even a blip on the radar yet, and while the price will likely swing wildly for a long time to come, if Bitcoin goes anywhere near mainstream these prices will be left in the dust. That said my suspicion is that this will soon attract (if it hasn't already) some professional traders that will be looking to manipulate the price down in order to accumulate.  Look for a sharp dip that cuts the price dramatically, possibly accompanied by some awful rumor or attack on Mt. Gox or something.  The weak hands will get shaken out of the market and we'll be primed for a huge rally.  Just my 2 (bit)cents. 

[fimp]

The only thing you can say is that there is at MOST X BTC exchanged for goods and services each day, with X being equal to the total value of all transactions in that day's blocks.

Not even that. Bitcoins can change hands within wallet systems, i.e. I can send BTC to another Mt Gox account without a block chain transaction.

So goods and services trading in BTC could theoretically be higher than total value of all block chain transactions.

[eMansipater]

A friend of mine coined an excellent term for the current surge:  it's a heisenbubble.

It's definitely a bubble, in the sense that people are buying based on learning about it and speculating, rather than any apparent economic surge.  However.......if someone does decide to build something truly innovative on top of BitCoin that wasn't possible before, the current value will be left in the dust.  So it's uncertain if it's truly a bubble or not.  Given the high rate of BitCoin influx from mining and the general impatience of speculators, it's mostly a matter of when exactly the breakthrough application of BitCoin arrives.

Until then.......heisenbubble.

[MoonShadow]

Until then.......heisenbubble.

And a carrot.