Bitcoin Forecast, Bitcoin Speculation & Bitcoin Technical Analysis. Up or DOWN?

[Alex Beckenham]

I sold all of my BTC onto #bitcoin-otc for around $3.50 per BTC just now...I plan to use those profits to buy back into the market at a lower price.

You mean $3.49?

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[da2ce7]

I sold all of my BTC onto #bitcoin-otc for around $3.50 per BTC just now...I plan to use those profits to buy back into the market at a lower price.

I would never sell all my Bitcoin in speculation...

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It should be interesting to see how investors react to MTGOX being down for three days. Apparently they will be back up by Monday, but it still doesn't look good. Plus coinpal going down indefinitely around the same time sucks as well.

 My guess is that we will have several days of fear selling followed by a strong rally back up. I sold all of my BTC onto #bitcoin-otc for around $3.50 per BTC just now...I plan to use those profits to buy back into the market at a lower price.

I don't believe a word of this.

If you really did sell, you just lost a ton of money.

[LZ]

If you really did sell, you just lost a ton of money.

Yes, because weekends can not reflect the real situation as workweeks.

ah the mysterious first generation miners, are they over the moon with joy today?

They deserve it because they had more risks wasting time and money.

[da2ce7]

BTC/USD is above both channels mow (normal scale 1.6$, log scale around 3$). It is crucial now to stay above. A break below will make this a BULL TRAP and give a quite negative indication.

So it is important that Bitcoin doesn't break $3, $1.6.  That is a very large range.  So now we should see resistance at the upper line of the price channel?

[bitcoinBull]

This week we have pure speculation and technical analysis are badly inaccurate.

The cost of mining is what makes up the fundamentals, which is the third component of three things taught to evaluate in trading: fundamentals, technicals, and sentiment.

Recently the price has tripled, but network difficulty (the cost of mining) has not kept up.

I'm calling a top.  It now makes more sense to invest in a mining rig (see Attack of the miners: http://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=6836.0;all) than to buy bitcoins at the current price.

I think the price will correct until it approaches an equilibrium with the difficulty factor.

[S3052]

BTC/USD is above both channels mow (normal scale 1.6$, log scale around 3$). It is crucial now to stay above. A break below will make this a BULL TRAP and give a quite negative indication.

So it is important that Bitcoin doesn't break $3, $1.6.  That is a very large range.  So now we should see resistance at the upper line of the price channel?

Yes, that is correct. Resistance / support is the upper trendline of the price channel.

It is true that at this stage, we cannot know for certain which channel line the market thinks is more important. The log scale around 3$ +-0.15 or the nominal trend line around 1.6 $.

I will run a deeper analysis on Monday, trying to shed some light on this.

In the meanwhile, it is evident that prices turned down from the parabolic rise. In a way, BTC/USD may have entered a similar path like Silver. Silver will likely crash down hard once the parabolic rise is over. Either from current levels around 48$, or after another rise into the 55-60$ area.

[Current-C]

That said my suspicion is that this will soon attract (if it hasn't already) some professional traders that will be looking to manipulate the price down in order to accumulate.  Look for a sharp dip that cuts the price dramatically, possibly accompanied by some awful rumor or attack on Mt. Gox or something.

This could turn out to be a heck of a call if this sell-off continues.   

[Cheeseman]

I sold all of my BTC onto #bitcoin-otc for around $3.50 per BTC just now...I plan to use those profits to buy back into the market at a lower price.

I would never sell all my Bitcoin in speculation...

I would never turn down a quick profit in speculation

Bulls make money, bears make money, but pigs get slaughtered.

[LMGTFY]

I sold all of my BTC onto #bitcoin-otc for around $3.50 per BTC just now...I plan to use those profits to buy back into the market at a lower price.

I would never sell all my Bitcoin in speculation...

I would never turn down a quick profit in speculation

Bulls make money, bears make money, but pigs get slaughtered.

I wouldn't turn down the chance of a quick profit speculating either, but I wouldn't risk all my bitcoins. Recently (though it seems so long ago now...) I sold around 10% of my bitcoins at 1.95, and bought back around 1.7. I wouldn't have risked 100% of my bitcoins, though - that's how to get slaughtered!

That said, I guess you've proved your point - you can currently buy back in at a healthy profit :-)

[S3052]

And again I have reset the market sentiment poll.


Up?
Same as now?
Down?
I don't know?

click on the poll above

Please VOTE

[LZ]

S3052, what you think about the current situation? It seems that DDoS affects the market.

[S3052]

Here we go:

The link to the update and yes, the uncertainty around MtGox may trigger profit taking.

http://blog.bitcoinwatch.com/2011/05/bitcoin-market-analysis-may-2nd-2011-by-s3052/

[pjwaffle]

Here we go:

The link to the update and yes, the uncertainty around MtGox may trigger profit taking.

http://blog.bitcoinwatch.com/2011/05/bitcoin-market-analysis-may-2nd-2011-by-s3052/

I have a question, you seemed to use the elliott wave principle on one of your charts (charts.ly)... Why are they not applicable to bitcoins?

[S3052]

They are applicable as BTC is from a technical standpoint not different from other markets. At the same time, BTC/USD price pattern history is still young and it is always open to various interpretations as to in which wave we are currently. We can easily count different scenarios: (i) We are in a 3rd wave up, which implies a further continuation. (ii) we are in the last 5th wave up with one more high before the end of that wave, (iii) Or we have completed the last 5th wave already at the last high and will soon see the longest correction since the start of trading, or (iv)...
This all depends on whether we include the bitcoinmarket trading before MtGox started or not.. You see, it is quite complex at this stage.

I can issue a more in depth Elliott Wave analysis if there is enough interest in the community and some people want to donate some coins, as this will require at least 3 hours which is difficult for me. (I need to add volume, sentiment measures, other indicators on top of Elliott to most accurately determine in which wave we are and narrow down the scenarios - and most importantly, come up with a favorite scenario).

Just let me know.

[pjwaffle]

They are applicable as BTC is from a technical standpoint not different from other markets. At the same time, BTC/USD price pattern history is still young and it is always open to various interpretations as to in which wave we are currently. We can easily count different scenarios: (i) We are in a 3rd wave up, which implies a further continuation. (ii) we are in the last 5th wave up with one more high before the end of that wave, (iii) Or we have completed the last 5th wave already at the last high and will soon see the longest correction since the start of trading, or (iv)...
This all depends on whether we include the bitcoinmarket trading before MtGox started or not.. You see, it is quite complex at this stage.

I can issue a more in depth Elliott Wave analysis if there is enough interest in the community and some people want to donate some coins, as this will require at least 3 hours which is difficult for me. (I need to add volume, sentiment measures, other indicators on top of Elliott to most accurately determine in which wave we are and narrow down the scenarios - and most importantly, come up with a favorite scenario).

Just let me know.

Alright, I agree with the price history being a bit small, I was just curious!

I did by the way, send you an email with my evaluations of the USD/CHF pair.

(I'm afraid I didn't include an elliott wave analysis )

[LZ]

[ribuck]

I was expecting a price drop at MtGox because of a loss of confidence due to the extended outage. To my surprise, MtGox re-opened with similar pricing to when it closed. I take that as a bullish indicator.

[LZ]

I do not think that it could drop too low.

[proudhon]

I was expecting a price drop at MtGox because of a loss of confidence due to the extended outage. To my surprise, MtGox re-opened with similar pricing to when it closed. I take that as a bullish indicator.

I think most of the people trading at MtGox understand the circumstances of the outages and their understanding of the circumstances mitigates their potential loss of confidence.  For better or worse, MtGox is getting entrenched, and something really nice is going to have to come along to disrupt that.