Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion

[JayJuanGee]

What worries me about tether the most is not that it may not be fully covered by real dollars, but that it might be dangerously close to what central banks are doing. ANd we all know, that banks are not too happy when someone else is taking their money printing/fractional reserve monopoly away from them. Especially when they cannot control it.

My conspiracy tinfoil hat tells me that Tether was sort of endorsed by the CB establishment. They need Bitcoin and the whole crypto market to have a weakness, an Achilles heel, when the next financial crisis comes. Otherwise they know that Bitcoin will go to the moon and they won't have a way to crash and short it.

Tether could be like their Trojan Horse. 

Whether it is conspiracy or not, we need to formulate some kind of explanation about why now coinbase is $200 below the BTC market price on the weekend, and in previous weekends it was $200 above.  Could be the network speed is increased, so easier to move bitcoins in and out of coinbase?  Could be manipulation to set an impression that selling is higher than buying - since coinbase is a pretty BIG onramp from fiat(including USD)?

Sounds like more people selling than buying causing pressure on the buy side to me

I doubt that you can so easily jump to such "more people selling than buying" conclusions, especially if we are talking about short term changes here and there - unless you are just trying to make things up in order to attempt to describe an outcome that you would prefer. 

Recently we have been in a kind of consolidation that has been kind of drifting downwards, concededly, yet it is not clear about whether such downward drifting is going to continue or whether we are at the end of such downward drifting. 

Of course, if BTC prices are going down, then there are more people selling than buying, but the opposite is happening then we have more people buying than selling. 

There can be short term impressions about price direction and there can even be arguments both ways, including technical analysis that frequently get's blown out of the water in bitcoinlandia, especially when it is attempting to describe inevitable necessity for further downwards BTC price movements.

[JayJuanGee]

Whether it is conspiracy or not, we need to formulate some kind of explanation about why now coinbase is $200 below the BTC market price on the weekend, and in previous weekends it was $200 above.  Could be the network speed is increased, so easier to move bitcoins in and out of coinbase?  Could be manipulation to set an impression that selling is higher than buying - since coinbase is a pretty BIG onramp from fiat(including USD)?

Sounds like more people selling than buying causing pressure on the buy side to me

Why doesn't somebody with a Twitter acct just reach out and ask Brian A. what the hell is going on?
https://twitter.com/brian_armstrong?ref_src=twsrc%5Egoogle%7Ctwcamp%5Eserp%7Ctwgr%5Eauthor

^{(I don't use Twitter)}

Yeah right.   

As if he is going to answer with any kind of honesty or accurate depiction.

[jojo69]

Most exchanges have been freezing due to the strain all their new users are putting on their systems. The kraken had to do a massive upgrade to its severs after months of problems. Straining those exchanges to that extent would be much harder to fake. Most Bitcoin exchanges won't let you trade until you supply KYC documents.

it has been 6 weeks now you can not even get the process started at Bittrex

Dear new users:

We have received an enormous number of new account registrations over the past few weeks.  We are excited to have so many new users who want to join the Bittrex community.  Unfortunately, we have to make a few upgrades to our support and backend systems to handle the increased traffic and load.  As such, we have halted new user registrations for the time being.  If you already have an account on Bittrex, you will not be affected by this change.  Please continue to the log in as you normally do.

To our new users, we will keep you posted on when we open up registration.  We apologize for the inconvenience!

The Bittrex Team

[mymenace]

Whether it is conspiracy or not, we need to formulate some kind of explanation about why now coinbase is $200 below the BTC market price on the weekend, and in previous weekends it was $200 above.  Could be the network speed is increased, so easier to move bitcoins in and out of coinbase?  Could be manipulation to set an impression that selling is higher than buying - since coinbase is a pretty BIG onramp from fiat(including USD)?

Sounds like more people selling than buying causing pressure on the buy side to me

Why doesn't somebody with a Twitter acct just reach out and ask Brian A. what the hell is going on?
https://twitter.com/brian_armstrong?ref_src=twsrc%5Egoogle%7Ctwcamp%5Eserp%7Ctwgr%5Eauthor

^{(I don't use Twitter)}

Yeah right.  

As if he is going to answer with any kind of honesty or accurate depiction.

over 90% of the time something is going wrong (corrupt)

any trust in any exchange is naive - mtgox, cryptsy and trustworthy btc-e robbed by US fed, recent 500million exchange hack in japan etc etc etc

do not trust any of them, use them while you can, diversify exchanges and use hardware wallets



the new national cryptos coming out are going to legitimatize crypto and discredit competitors (bitcoin)

the IMF new crypto based on the SDR will be the one to rule them all



something is coming


update: hypothesis

need more sheeple into crypto
pump btc higher
introduce safer nationalized crypto
IMF introduces global crypto
crash btc - discredit
flood of sheeple into centralized crypto

beware the sheeple

I would hate for this to happen

[mindrust]

WTF happened to the mempool? This is not the bitcoin i know. (i kid, i still remember 0 fee tx's)

Fees are as low as 1-10sat/b right now. I mean. What the fuck? https://bitcoinfees.earn.com/

Could it be that those spamming fucktards finally realized if bitcoin goes down they do too?

[bitcoinPsycho]

$12000 in one hour come on bitcoin

[HairyMaclairy]

Here is my theory - posted here so people can pull it apart and make me smarter by pointing out my errors !

Like it or not, Coinbase / Gdax is a primary fiat gateway.  Fiat flows into crypto through Gdax and also flows out through Gdax.  During the rush to $19k, Gdax was often $500 ahead of Bitfinex and Bitstamp who had to be dragged kicking and screaming through arbitrage upwards.

Now we see a $500 gap in the other direction.  Bitfinex is trying to soar but Gdax is dragging it down through arbitrage.  The theory is that there is a net outflow of funds from crypto.

The test for my theory should be that the order books on Bitfinex should be shrinking - I have not tested this yet.

[jojo69]

WTF happened to the mempool? This is not the bitcoin i know. (i kid, i still remember 0 fee tx's)

Fees are as low as 1-10sat/b right now. I mean. What the fuck? https://bitcoinfees.earn.com/

Could it be that those spamming fucktards finally realized if bitcoin goes down they do too?

While scaling is certainly a problem, the apoplectic urgency expressed by the bigblockers was clearly a manufactured canard.

[OWZ1337]

$12000 in one hour come on bitcoin

 

BTCBTC revival

[bitcoinPsycho]

$12000 in one hour come on bitcoin

[img]https://i.ytimg.com/vi/AAP03GzKgPQ/maxresdefault.jpg[/img

 

BTCBTC revival

weeeee !

[rolling]

WTF happened to the mempool? This is not the bitcoin i know. (i kid, i still remember 0 fee tx's)

Fees are as low as 1-10sat/b right now. I mean. What the fuck? https://bitcoinfees.earn.com/

Could it be that those spamming fucktards finally realized if bitcoin goes down they do too?

Yep, 5 sats per byte will probably get you into the next block or two.

BTC/USD price/100 million = satoshi/USD price * satoshis per byte * bytes = USD transaction cost
$11,700 / 100,000,000 = $0.000117 * 5 * 225 = ~$0.13 cents for a standard 225 byte transaction

https://dedi.jochen-hoenicke.de/queue/#24h

[JayJuanGee]

Whether it is conspiracy or not, we need to formulate some kind of explanation about why now coinbase is $200 below the BTC market price on the weekend, and in previous weekends it was $200 above.  Could be the network speed is increased, so easier to move bitcoins in and out of coinbase?  Could be manipulation to set an impression that selling is higher than buying - since coinbase is a pretty BIG onramp from fiat(including USD)?

Sounds like more people selling than buying causing pressure on the buy side to me

Why doesn't somebody with a Twitter acct just reach out and ask Brian A. what the hell is going on?
https://twitter.com/brian_armstrong?ref_src=twsrc%5Egoogle%7Ctwcamp%5Eserp%7Ctwgr%5Eauthor

^{(I don't use Twitter)}

Yeah right.  

As if he is going to answer with any kind of honesty or accurate depiction.

over 90% of the time something is going wrong (corrupt)

any trust in any exchange is naive - mtgox, cryptsy and trustworthy btc-e robbed by US fed, recent 500million exchange hack in japan etc etc etc

do not trust any of them, use them while you can, diversify exchanges and use hardware wallets

You seem to be exaggerating a bit in your post.

Sure, no one is saying to trust exchanges, but each of us have differing levels in which we use them and even keep some value on them.  I don't disagree with your overall point that they are risky and they are trusting 3d parties with your private keys; however, they also seem to be a necessary transitional evil that allows for liquidity that gives bitcoin value in the first place - and your 90% seems to be a bit misleading.   Yeah, bitcoin does not get hacked, it is third parties that screw up, but still your 90% makes it seem as if there is some kind of 90% chance that you are going to lose all your money on exchanges if you leave it there.

the new national cryptos coming out are going to legitimatize crypto and discredit competitors (bitcoin)

I don't know how this relates to anything in the previous post, so it sounds like you are bringing up a new seemingly exaggerated topic that you want to spread the news about some supposed centralized "competitors" to bitcoin.  Get the fuck out of here.  We already have thousands of quasi-centralized and supposed competitors to bitcoin, but there still remains to be something that bitcoin offers that distinguishes it from the others.. no?

the IMF new crypto based on the SDR will be the one to rule them all



something is coming

Very large and unsubstantiated speculation.  Is this a joke?

update: hypothesis

need more sheeple into crypto
pump btc higher
introduce safer nationalized crypto
IMF introduces global crypto
crash btc - discredit
flood of sheeple into centralized crypto

beware the sheeple

I would hate for this to happen

Sure, there maybe some plans like this, and what is the likelihood of success?  more than 50/50?   or really seems like you are talking about scenarios that are likely in the planning, but probably have less than a 5% chance of being successful, no?

[mindrust]

Maybe its the lightning network?

It is early to say that but what if they just don't want to lose the on-chain customers?

I mean if LN gets adopted widely, only a few will be using onchain transactions. That means a direct loss of income for miners. What if they stopped spamming so they can be competitive to LN to not lose fee income?

Fee Income from 10sat/b txs is still better than nothing, right? If that's the case, core team just scored another one.

[HairyMaclairy]

Where have all the big blockers gone?  

Where is our friend Gab0? Where is Peter R?  Who will lecture us on the burning necessity of big blocks now that they are no longer with us?

Should we start an “adopt a big blocker” program ?

[JayJuanGee]

WTF happened to the mempool? This is not the bitcoin i know. (i kid, i still remember 0 fee tx's)

Fees are as low as 1-10sat/b right now. I mean. What the fuck? https://bitcoinfees.earn.com/

Could it be that those spamming fucktards finally realized if bitcoin goes down they do too?

Didn't I see another post in this thread that gave a pretty decent rationale? 

It seems that the ongoing spamming was costing a pretty decent chunk of change on an ongoing basis, and it was seeming not to pay off, and it was also seeming to have some opposite effects too.  First of all the cost of keeping it going, and second of all it was causing greater financial motivations for the implementation of lightning - which was not a desired outcome.

[mindrust]

WTF happened to the mempool? This is not the bitcoin i know. (i kid, i still remember 0 fee tx's)

Fees are as low as 1-10sat/b right now. I mean. What the fuck? https://bitcoinfees.earn.com/

Could it be that those spamming fucktards finally realized if bitcoin goes down they do too?

Didn't I see another post in this thread that gave a pretty decent rationale?  

It seems that the ongoing spamming was costing a pretty decent chunk of change on an ongoing basis, and it was seeming not to pay off, and it was also seeming to have some opposite effects too.  First of all the cost of keeping it going, and second of all it was causing greater financial motivations for the implementation of lightning - which was not a desired outcome.

checks out with what i said 2 messages above.

Now they have no other chance other than being competitive/cheap. Or else LN will destroy them.

[JayJuanGee]

Here is my theory - posted here so people can pull it apart and make me smarter by pointing out my errors !

Like it or not, Coinbase / Gdax is a primary fiat gateway.  Fiat flows into crypto through Gdax and also flows out through Gdax.  During the rush to $19k, Gdax was often $500 ahead of Bitfinex and Bitstamp who had to be dragged kicking and screaming through arbitrage upwards.

Now we see a $500 gap in the other direction.  Bitfinex is trying to soar but Gdax is dragging it down through arbitrage.  The theory is that there is a net outflow of funds from crypto.

The test for my theory should be that the order books on Bitfinex should be shrinking - I have not tested this yet.

Just because a certain exchange is in the lead of a trend does not mean that they are leading the price movement.

[HairyMaclairy]

At the time of this post the bid depth for BTC on BFX was 21,332 BTC and the ask depth was 8,825 BTC.

To do:  check depth in 24 hours.

[jojo69]

Maybe its the lightning network?

It is early to say that but what if they just don't want to lose the on-chain customers?

I mean if LN gets adopted widely, only a few will be using onchain transactions. That means a direct loss of income for miners. What if they stopped spamming so they can be competitive to LN to not lose fee income?

Fee Income from 10sat/b txs is still better than nothing, right? If that's the case, core team just scored another one.

I hear that, but if you go to the BCash threads they are postulating that the miners are going to abandon BTC in droves due to the fee loss.

...

It seems that the ongoing spamming was costing a pretty decent chunk of change on an ongoing basis, and it was seeming not to pay off, and it was also seeming to have some opposite effects too.  First of all the cost of keeping it going, and second of all it was causing greater financial motivations for the implementation of lightning - which was not a desired outcome.

I agree with this, the only thing I would remind of is that the spammer in question likely negated a good bit of the costs as they were also mining the spammy blocks.

[HairyMaclairy]

Just because a certain exchange is in the lead of a trend does not mean that they are leading the price movement.

Sure.  I would welcome alternative explanations of what is going on in the market because I am trying to puzzle it out.  I am not saying that I am right.