Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion

[Last of the V8s]

Oh hey look at that: legendary wizard. Congrats brother toxic, you're a star.

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[Toxic2040]

Oh hey look at that: legendary wizard. Congrats brother toxic, you're a star.

well that escalated quickly..

awww shucks..actually very honored to serve here..thank you everyone

[Dabs]

We're talking very long term here. It could be 50 years from now ! I expect to still be here (alive I mean). I agree that the maths look impossible today, but when deep diving into even just a regular CPU/GPU of today, not a quantum one, it seems impossible too, yet it works. Billions upon billions of transistors in a single chip !

If you're referring to the brute force cracking of 128 to 256 bit private keys, then it's more likely to take 100 years than 50. All the current math points to millions of years at the fastest possible computation speeds (and also impossible calculation speeds.)

What's more likely and probably is some crack at the algorithm that breaks it, so calculation is less than 128 bits.

A 256-bit private key will have 115,792,089,237,316,195,423,570,985,008,687,907,853,269,984,665,640,564,039,457,584,007,913,129,639,936 (that’s 78 digits) possible combinations. No Super Computer on the face of this earth can crack that in any reasonable timeframe.




"Brute force attacks against 256-bit keys will be infeasible until computers are built from something other than matter and occupy something other than space".

-Bruce Schneier

[Toxic2040]

further wall theory

so yesterday the bids were around 67 million...sometime between then and now...it dropped to 57 million and those three steps have been removed         thats the 9.8 million I was pointing out

the slope and shape of the ask(red) side has changed from a wedge shape to become more vertical    when the asks are chasing price downwards..you see that shape as the asks 'dig' into the bid walls

you see the same when the price is moving upwards..the bid wall will slope downwards into a more wedge like shape as buyers chase price up

when the walls are vertical it usually means price has been discovered and buyers and sellers are content trading around the spread(the gap in price between bids and asks)

you will sometimes see the wall setup from yesterday when a whale wants to accumulate more coins...they will set large bids and then start selling, driving the price down into their bids

there are many scenarios but perhaps you can see my thought process a bit more clearly now

#dyor

[BobLawblaw]

OT: The things I do for better peace of mind. Kinda sad.

C'est la vie.

[Toxic2040]

why bother?   


and further...for a man supposedly obsessed with opsec...a dark reader?   really?


gtfo...tired of your whining bob

[aesma]

40000sq ft? (3500 m²)?
That's a palace.
I don't need a palace, i would rather have several smaller houses or even apts in cool places with either great weather or view.
Maybe Paris is good re weather, I never been. Weather and some "nature" like sea or lake or a large river, woods nearby are a must.
So far, choices like Hawaii, British Columbia, some places in CA, maybe Colorado are popping up. I used to like NY, not sure how it is now, though.
There are some great places in Europe too, but i would have to learn italian, spanish or portuguese to be there for longer time periods.

  you misunderstood, I was only talking about the plot of land. Like you can exit your house and walk a bit and you're still on your property. I don't need a huge house, although ideally some of the things I want take some space, like a big garage for nice cars, and a home cinema, but that can always be added later, if the plot of land is big enough. A pool, too. An uncle of mine has a big house (1500m²) and his younger wife spends her days cleaning... He used to own a castle near here, similar to this one (don't want to be IDed if I show the real one) : https://www.bellesdemeures.com/en/listings/sale/tt-2-tb-13-pl-26066/151598835/ The castle was of course impressive, but my memories (I was a kid) are all about the large park, with a pond, a river, a forest and even large game animals, all in the middle of Paris suburbs, it was great. Nowadays it's probably worth a literal fortune, but at the time my uncle couldn't keep up with the maintenance, it was crazy expensive. In fact in France you can buy similar castles all over the place with comparatively low prices for this reason, the only ones that are worth a lot are those with a great location.

Weather here is not great but not horrible, thanks to the Gulf Stream it doesn't get too cold nor too hot like in NY. I would definitely like to spend the winter elsewhere, a bit too much rain, and too long. That's more long term goal (fuck you goals...). In fact on top of the weather what bums me in winter is the short daylight, so either I move closer to the equator (thinking about French Polynesia or Vietnam) or I live in two places (summer in the Northern Hemisphere, winter in the Southern Hemisphere).

I have Italian roots and family there, plenty of good things to say about it, but the future of the country is worrying me, people are older and older and the young aren't making babies, it's depressing. Italian would be easy to learn for me.

Translation please  

slope, shape and usd on the bid side(green) coupled with arithmetic

it is said in wizard school one should be vague or obtuse, and randomly grumpy at times...just doing the best i can    

Ah ah you succeed ! I see nothing looking like "9.8" on your charts. edit : thanks for the further explanation

Congrats on Legendary, funny how that happens in quick succession !

[explorer]

OT: The things I do for better peace of mind. Kinda sad.

C'est la vie.

  I remember the days of full pages of ignores.  I suppose I will have to update the list, as most of the old sock puppets seem to have faded away.  A new ATH should bring a new crop, I'm thinking.

[Last of the V8s]

wow long time no see, i was wondering from time to time, welcome back @explorer

[JayJuanGee]

OT: The things I do for better peace of mind. Kinda sad.

C'est la vie.

  I remember the days of full pages of ignores.  I suppose I will have to update the list, as most of the old sock puppets seem to have faded away.  A new ATH should bring a new crop, I'm thinking.

I remember the days when there was no need to announce who or which piggie you might not be ignoring.

The good ole days.  

“The creatures outside looked from pig to man, and from man to pig, and from pig to man again; but already it was impossible to say which was which.”  

The last line of George Orwell's Animal Farm; I love that quote.

[Biodom]

40000sq ft? (3500 m²)?
That's a palace.
I don't need a palace, i would rather have several smaller houses or even apts in cool places with either great weather or view.
Maybe Paris is good re weather, I never been. Weather and some "nature" like sea or lake or a large river, woods nearby are a must.
So far, choices like Hawaii, British Columbia, some places in CA, maybe Colorado are popping up. I used to like NY, not sure how it is now, though.
There are some great places in Europe too, but i would have to learn italian, spanish or portuguese to be there for longer time periods.

  you misunderstood, I was only talking about the plot of land. Like you can exit your house and walk a bit and you're still on your property. I don't need a huge house, although ideally some of the things I want take some space, like a big garage for nice cars, and a home cinema, but that can always be added later, if the plot of land is big enough. A pool, too. An uncle of mine has a big house (1500m²) and his younger wife spends her days cleaning... He used to own a castle near here, similar to this one (don't want to be IDed if I show the real one) : https://www.bellesdemeures.com/en/listings/sale/tt-2-tb-13-pl-26066/151598835/ The castle was of course impressive, but my memories (I was a kid) are all about the large park, with a pond, a river, a forest and even large game animals, all in the middle of Paris suburbs, it was great. Nowadays it's probably worth a literal fortune, but at the time my uncle couldn't keep up with the maintenance, it was crazy expensive. In fact in France you can buy similar castles all over the place with comparatively low prices for this reason, the only ones that are worth a lot are those with a great location.

Weather here is not great but not horrible, thanks to the Gulf Stream it doesn't get too cold nor too hot like in NY. I would definitely like to spend the winter elsewhere, a bit too much rain, and too long. That's more long term goal (fuck you goals...). In fact on top of the weather what bums me in winter is the short daylight, so either I move closer to the equator (thinking about French Polynesia or Vietnam) or I live in two places (summer in the Northern Hemisphere, winter in the Southern Hemisphere).

I have Italian roots and family there, plenty of good things to say about it, but the future of the country is worrying me, people are older and older and the young aren't making babies, it's depressing. Italian would be easy to learn for me.

yea, got it, thanks.

Lately, I start to consider the possibility that bitcoin will jerk us around for another 10 years and then all these ideas would be for naught (at least, for me).
In this unfortunate hypothetical, bitcoin's 2010-2017 period is like 1971-1980 period in gold, which was followed by a 20year bear market.
Like almost everyone, I am hoping for an additional bull in our secular uptrend to make an ultimate top at 150-300K before the long secular bear, predicted by quite a few, including masterluc. However, I consider the possibility that 2017 was a top as being a non-zero probability. To me, we are still nominally in the bear market.

Yes, the masses of money that were printed are impressive, but, paradoxically, this does not prove that this money "has" to go into bitcoin and in fact, most of it went into 5 top stocks plus Tesla instead. Markets are very complex. Like today, inflation was unleashed, but gold and btc said... "meh" collectively. I guess, because it was all pre-announced.

[BobLawblaw]

* BobLawblaw yawns and pisses in the general direction of ignored users

[AlcoHoDL]

"Brute force attacks against 256-bit keys will be infeasible until computers are built from something other than matter and occupy something other than space".

-Bruce Schneier

"I can state flatly that heavier than air flying machines are impossible."

— Lord Kelvin, 1895

[JayJuanGee]

* BobLawblaw yawns and pisses in the general direction of ignored users

For some strange reason, I am NOT even feeling ignored.        

[yefi]

"I can state flatly that heavier than air flying machines are impossible."

— Lord Kelvin, 1895

No source?

[Biodom]

An interesting writeup from one of the Winkelvoss bros.
https://winklevosscapital.com/the-case-for-500k-bitcoin/

[cAPSLOCK]

I forgot to show off... I did make one of these things.  Then I lost it, lol.  Hopeless.



It's around here somewhere.

But tonight coaxing some samples out of the little Crave!

[dakiller322]

"Brute force attacks against 256-bit keys will be infeasible until computers are built from something other than matter and occupy something other than space".

-Bruce Schneier

"I can state flatly that heavier than air flying machines are impossible."

— Lord Kelvin, 1895

Brute force, so checking every combination, makes some pretty easily verifiable claims.

If you build a supercomputer that occupies a space of only 1 cubic centimetre, that can brute force 1 trillion keys a second, and cover the entire earths surface with these computers, the Sun will swallow the Earth, before you have time to search the whole 256 bit key space.

I have also seen other calculations that information represented as its absolute minimum energy in the laws of physics, that there is not enough energy in the Sun to search a 256 bit key space either.

[Torque]

An interesting writeup from one of the Winkelvoss bros.
https://winklevosscapital.com/the-case-for-500k-bitcoin/

"Examining the The Fed’s balance sheet uncovers that it added $344 billion more mortgage-backed securities and $820 billion more long-term Treasurys (i.e., debt monetization) from February 2020 to July 2020. In other words, of the $3 trillion increase, $1.1 trillion was printed. To put this into perspective, the Fed printed two-thirds as much money in the last 6 months as it did over the prior 11 years. And that’s not all, the Fed has committed to a YOLO whatever it takes QE posture going forward…"

And yet very few people understand the real gravity of this statement.  

[BobLawblaw]

Which DAW is that ? Don't immediately recognize it. I'm a Steinberg whore.