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Author Topic: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion  (Read 25496127 times)
This is a self-moderated topic. If you do not want to be moderated by the person who started this topic, create a new topic. (158 posts by 14 users with 9 merit deleted.)
Phil_S
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August 24, 2020, 04:26:54 PM

Not just enemy.
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August 24, 2020, 04:59:13 PM
Merited by Hueristic (1), AlcoHoDL (1)

So I sold a tiny amount to cover an unexpected expense, immediately after, the prices starts going up, and to top it of, I just learned that the expense was a mistake and was cancelled.
You are welcome.

dont feel too bad, a while back (see my post below) i pulled decent chunk out for a project when corn was around 9k,  did it over the course of a few weeks when it was sideways at 9k ish for a longish time. and when i finally had the fiat amount i needed, like one week or so later (or thereabouts) it did it 11-12k thing.

but hey i sell when i want the extra fiat for whatever. i long ago decided not to try timing anything. when i need fiat, i sell. after all honey badger dont give af as to what my plans are.

Good morning WO!
Observing @ $9,219

gonna sell some corn soon for reasons. expect the price to rise as a result.

In terms of cash out (cash needed) we can only look to the current price, not what it might be or what is possible in a few days or weeks....

If there are reasons so urgent that a cash out is needed, then it’s just a must and a later price doesn’t matter, cause you wouldn’t have the coins either way.

Also always be happy for the cold storage coins that are increasing there value... those are the ones that matter now

We all have experiences of coins or things that are worth more now, but aren’t in our possession anymore, but we all look to much to those past moments that some of us are getting to angry/salty cause of it

(Not saying you guys are) but probably people like roach etc... moaning and complaining or trying to scare more people....

Past is the past and only need to look to that what we have or can achieve

Probably one of the most difficult things to attempt to accomplish is the early on balancing of how much a BTC accumulator really can afford to invest in BTC.. and once that is done, and decided to thereby largely just let that value ride during accumulation phases, while not getting psyched out be short term value drops, even if they might be in the 85% arena.

For example, if you were in a BTC accumulation phase when the price was $10k to $19k in late 2017, then why would you not continue to be in a BTC accumulation phase during 2018, 2019 and 2020 when we had extensive periods below $10k and also a lot of time below $8k, too.

So, various short term periods of difficulties might even come within the BTC accumulation period while BTC prices are seeming to be all over the damned place.. - all the way from $3k to $19,666 within the past 3 years, and much of that time below $10k.

Once you get passed the BTC accumulation phase, then hopefully, your BTC holdings would largely be "in profits" then the question of shaving off a bit here or there should be easier - even though as vapourminer points out, there is a kind of "feeling in the air" that the current BTC price might be a weeeee bit undervalued, given current market circumstances.. causing additional hesitation to shave off a bit of BTC profits.

I am speculating a bit (and even partly on personal experience) that shaving off a few profits here and there does become easier and easier the higher the level of profits in which a HODLers BTC stash stands.  To take extremes, if the BTC profits are merely in the less than 50% arena, then there may well be a decent amount of hesitancy, but when profits start to get into the supra 10x arena, hesitancy likely becomes less and less the higher the level of "in profits" are the cashed out corns.

Gosh, when I was younger.. in my 20s, I was NOT hardly thinking about cashing out of anything for 30 plus years.. and just accumulate, accumulate, and sure I would get forced to cash out a bit here and there when I did not manage my cashflows well enough (and of course, my cashflows were much smaller back in the day).. anyhow, it does seem to get a whole hell f a lot easier with the passage of time and one of the reasons that a four year minimum investment timeline seems to be amongst the basics of building wealth in the corns asset class...

Of course if the BTC price moves down rather than up or it has some price peaks in the middle, there still remains a need to keep an eye on the prize in terms of really acknowledging and practicing what phase you are in.. and if you are young (should I go so bold as to say under 40), it is quite likely that you are continuing to be in an accumulation phase unless you have already reached "fuck you" status, which would be a pretty BIG ass accomplishment for any peeps under 40 to bring those kinds of changes in the dynamics regarding where they are at.

Actually, one of the problems that I believe exist with the young whipper snappers, maybe even moreso in the crypto (including bitcoin, too) space is that they believe that they have reached fuck you status before they have actually reached such status... hahahahaha... and there can be some BIG ASS reminders of that during high asset volatility periods (especially when asset price bottoms seem to fall out.. even if just for short periods of time).
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August 24, 2020, 05:14:25 PM
Last edit: August 24, 2020, 05:38:29 PM by JayJuanGee
Merited by Hueristic (1)

(Not saying you guys are) but probably people like roach etc... moaning and complaining or trying to scare more people....

I laugh myself to tears:

This thread is full retard now.  You have digital shitcoin scammers like Marcus and Lambwhatever praying as many people die in some sort of global plague as possible pretending it would be bullish for Bitcoin.  If it was a worst case scenario and 2-15% of the global population actually did die (the high ball estimates are too high because only asians have elevated ace2), I'd bet everything that it would be a deflationary collapse and Bitcoin would get clobbered because Bitcoin performs terribly in deflation.

Every.single.time. Grin

Roach's mistakes were largely in mid 2016 when he sold all his BTC in the $700 arena, and patted himself on the back for being such a genius... which likely did seem to last for a decent number of months while BTC prices had downfalls and even relatively flat (only slow appreciation through the remainder of 2016) and barely got back above $700 until the end of 2017...

But then Roach stuck with the bitcoin is returning to sub $500 narrative.. he was stuck and could not get out of that mindset... and he seemed smart enough, so at some point, we would have speculated that he would realize that some of his presumptions were not correct.. the stubborn bastard...

and yeah, perhaps reveling in PMs currently, with a bit of a 55% price appreciation in the past 16 months or so that might not end soon, even though many of us bitcoiners realize that the gold price "boom" is largely just getting them back to 2011 gold prices, and sure they may well get some additional gold price appreciation, and sure a lot of peeps are excited about gold, currently, but really should be difficult to have confidence in gold.. whether verifiability, portability or even liquidation avenues... there might be some legit places to take a few coins or even some bars, but seems a bit  problematic - even if Armageddon really does come.
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August 24, 2020, 05:20:43 PM

Seems the truth these days matters very little while the narrative proves much easier and more effective to control.
IMO, that is the essence of war, deceiving the enemy to believe an inaccurate reality. , essentially control of the mind.

Not just enemy.
Care to expand,  do you mean to highlight that we are not actually enemies but fight like it among ourselves?    
Just for clarity, enemy used here is to represent the duality, not a nameable entity.
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August 24, 2020, 05:30:09 PM
Merited by Icygreen (1)

I mean, they deceive their own population, not just the the enemy.
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August 24, 2020, 06:08:43 PM

About spending some of your corn now...

The only two things I've bought with my corn are my Trezor (soon to become the most expensive h/w wallet in the world -- excluding the coins in it), and a site subscription (fortunately only paid once).

Whenever I think of spending some of my corn, I think of Laszlo's pizza story...at which point I log out of my wallets and order two double pepperonis using fiat. Somehow the pizzas taste better that way...

GTCTTWW.

HoDL.
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August 24, 2020, 07:00:45 PM
Last edit: August 24, 2020, 07:47:35 PM by JayJuanGee
Merited by d_eddie (1), AlcoHoDL (1)

About spending some of your corn now...

The only two things I've bought with my corn are my Trezor (soon to become the most expensive h/w wallet in the world -- excluding the coins in it), and a site subscription (fortunately only paid once).

Whenever I think of spending some of my corn, I think of Laszlo's pizza story...at which point I log out of my wallets and order two double pepperonis using fiat. Somehow the pizzas taste better that way...

GTCTTWW.

HoDL.

But does your spending really count, AlcoHoDL?

I bet that you really spent and replaced... those lilly corns,  AmiNOTkoreck?

I am thinking further.. not specifically about you, AlcoHoDL, but maybe none of us really ever arrives at any kind of perfect "fuck you" status?

We are all just fuck you status wannabes?

 Cheesy Cheesy Cheesy Cheesy Cheesy

I might be exaggerating a bit because even if none of us would reach a kind of dictator of an island status, but there are graduation of options within fuck you status, too.

Remember mindrust said something like, "who needs to be rich anyhow, these days?"  The world is fucked with a virus and multiple travel and consumption restrictions, so where you going to spend all of that "on paper" wealth?  In other words, to some extent mindrust was proclaiming that there might not be any value in being wealthy.

Ok..  we do not need to go that far (such as mindrust) in our thinking to realize that wealth is still going to give more options than if NOT having wealth, right?   

Don't get me wrong, because I am also NOT suggesting that guys have to reach some extremely exorbitant level of wealth before they can either pull a kind of fuck you lever or to proclaim that they are in a kind of fuck you status, even if they choose to continue to work (hopefully as something that they really want to do rather than have to do).

Let's say that a guy is not really going to feel comfortable with achieving fuck you status until the value of all of his potentially income producing assets (or quasi-liquid) assets are  securely in thee $2million of total value region (for a presumably $6,667 per month passive income).  Of course, he could diversify out of corn.. or he can keep a decent chunk in corn, but try to consider what the BTC bottom might be?  

Recently, haven't we had been using the 200 week moving average as a kind of bottom for the BTC price, which would be around $6,500, currently.  

So, yeah if $2million is your fuck you status level, you better have 307.7 BTC or the equivalent of that in BTC and other assets (considering what the bottoms of those other assets might be, too).  A question might be whether $2million is really the necessary minimum or would such fuck you status wannabe peep be able to be o.k. with $1million.. which yeah, is half the quantity of expected passive income of $3,333 rather than $6,667 per month.

We should be capable of figuring out these kinds of things for our lil selfies, including having a financial/psychological cushion that is NOT too unreasonable that will still allow us to pull the "fuck you" lever at a time in our lives that we should be able to still enjoy it while trying to appreciate what real world factors we are dealing with, including known, unknowns and unknown unknowns.
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August 24, 2020, 07:13:49 PM
Merited by cAPSLOCK (1)

the noon wall report


two kitteh's play in the clouds
1h



shark fin soup
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#stronghands
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Be a bank


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August 24, 2020, 10:14:56 PM
Merited by El duderino_ (3), d_eddie (1)



https://decrypt.co/39619/arrested-hong-kong-billionaires-newspaper-turns-to-bitcoin

more pics https://imgur.com/a/yCV7viS
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Go! BTC Go!


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August 24, 2020, 10:19:20 PM

True but that wont stop it from fuckin' bitch slapping you all the way to the moon and back.
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August 24, 2020, 10:47:29 PM
Merited by El duderino_ (2)

Poor citizens of Hong Kong.
They can't say anything against the interest of the mainland or its ruling party.
It's likely not everyone wants to, but still... there seemed to be a few protesters.
Freedom, even a whiff of it, is hard to give up once tasted.
Imagine all the protesters voting with their money.
Imagine a huge run on the banks.
Decent liquidity shock. Like a small stress test, only it's not a drill. It's for real.
Imagine all these people embracing BTC so they can't be ditched.

It's likely just a dream, but still... there seemed to be a few protesters.

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August 25, 2020, 12:21:05 AM

About spending some of your corn now...

The only two things I've bought with my corn are my Trezor (soon to become the most expensive h/w wallet in the world -- excluding the coins in it), and a site subscription (fortunately only paid once).

Whenever I think of spending some of my corn, I think of Laszlo's pizza story...at which point I log out of my wallets and order two double pepperonis using fiat. Somehow the pizzas taste better that way...

GTCTTWW.

HoDL.

But does your spending really count, AlcoHoDL?

I bet that you really spent and replaced... those lilly corns,  AmiNOTkoreck?

I am thinking further.. not specifically about you, AlcoHoDL, but maybe none of us really ever arrives at any kind of perfect "fuck you" status?

We are all just fuck you status wannabes?

 Cheesy Cheesy Cheesy Cheesy Cheesy

I might be exaggerating a bit because even if none of us would reach a kind of dictator of an island status, but there are graduation of options within fuck you status, too.

Remember mindrust said something like, "who needs to be rich anyhow, these days?"  The world is fucked with a virus and multiple travel and consumption restrictions, so where you going to spend all of that "on paper" wealth?  In other words, to some extent mindrust was proclaiming that there might not be any value in being wealthy.

Ok..  we do not need to go that far (such as mindrust) in our thinking to realize that wealth is still going to give more options than if NOT having wealth, right?   

Don't get me wrong, because I am also NOT suggesting that guys have to reach some extremely exorbitant level of wealth before they can either pull a kind of fuck you lever or to proclaim that they are in a kind of fuck you status, even if they choose to continue to work (hopefully as something that they really want to do rather than have to do).

Let's say that a guy is not really going to feel comfortable with achieving fuck you status until the value of all of his potentially income producing assets (or quasi-liquid) assets are  securely in thee $2million of total value region (for a presumably $6,667 per month passive income).  Of course, he could diversify out of corn.. or he can keep a decent chunk in corn, but try to consider what the BTC bottom might be?  

Recently, haven't we had been using the 200 week moving average as a kind of bottom for the BTC price, which would be around $6,500, currently.  

So, yeah if $2million is your fuck you status level, you better have 307.7 BTC or the equivalent of that in BTC and other assets (considering what the bottoms of those other assets might be, too).  A question might be whether $2million is really the necessary minimum or would such fuck you status wannabe peep be able to be o.k. with $1million.. which yeah, is half the quantity of expected passive income of $3,333 rather than $6,667 per month.

We should be capable of figuring out these kinds of things for our lil selfies, including having a financial/psychological cushion that is NOT too unreasonable that will still allow us to pull the "fuck you" lever at a time in our lives that we should be able to still enjoy it while trying to appreciate what real world factors we are dealing with, including known, unknowns and unknown unknowns.

Okay if two million in btc is f u status you need three million not 2. if you cash the 3 and pay tax ending up with 2 million in cash gives me 33 years at 6666.66 a month.

Now if I did all of the above and btc goes to 50k a coin I would never be happy I cashed in the three million in coin or about 290 coins.

If I was looking to cash 290 coins. I would need at least 210 more to hodl.

Now the numbers above mean I need 500 coins . I am 63 if you are younger add 9 coins for each year you are younger.

I e

63 you need 500. cash 290
62 you need 509. cash 295
61 you need 518 cash  300

most people here dont have that much coin.


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August 25, 2020, 03:22:24 AM
Merited by Hueristic (1)

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August 25, 2020, 03:38:01 AM
Last edit: August 25, 2020, 03:52:30 AM by JayJuanGee
Merited by Paashaas (1), bitebits (1), AlcoHoDL (1), JSRAW (1), Toxic2040 (1)

About spending some of your corn now...

The only two things I've bought with my corn are my Trezor (soon to become the most expensive h/w wallet in the world -- excluding the coins in it), and a site subscription (fortunately only paid once).

Whenever I think of spending some of my corn, I think of Laszlo's pizza story...at which point I log out of my wallets and order two double pepperonis using fiat. Somehow the pizzas taste better that way...

GTCTTWW.

HoDL.

But does your spending really count, AlcoHoDL?

I bet that you really spent and replaced... those lilly corns,  AmiNOTkoreck?

I am thinking further.. not specifically about you, AlcoHoDL, but maybe none of us really ever arrives at any kind of perfect "fuck you" status?

We are all just fuck you status wannabes?

 Cheesy Cheesy Cheesy Cheesy Cheesy

I might be exaggerating a bit because even if none of us would reach a kind of dictator of an island status, but there are graduation of options within fuck you status, too.

Remember mindrust said something like, "who needs to be rich anyhow, these days?"  The world is fucked with a virus and multiple travel and consumption restrictions, so where you going to spend all of that "on paper" wealth?  In other words, to some extent mindrust was proclaiming that there might not be any value in being wealthy.

Ok..  we do not need to go that far (such as mindrust) in our thinking to realize that wealth is still going to give more options than if NOT having wealth, right?  

Don't get me wrong, because I am also NOT suggesting that guys have to reach some extremely exorbitant level of wealth before they can either pull a kind of fuck you lever or to proclaim that they are in a kind of fuck you status, even if they choose to continue to work (hopefully as something that they really want to do rather than have to do).

Let's say that a guy is not really going to feel comfortable with achieving fuck you status until the value of all of his potentially income producing assets (or quasi-liquid) assets are  securely in thee $2million of total value region (for a presumably $6,667 per month passive income).  Of course, he could diversify out of corn.. or he can keep a decent chunk in corn, but try to consider what the BTC bottom might be?  

Recently, haven't we had been using the 200 week moving average as a kind of bottom for the BTC price, which would be around $6,500, currently.  

So, yeah if $2million is your fuck you status level, you better have 307.7 BTC or the equivalent of that in BTC and other assets (considering what the bottoms of those other assets might be, too).  A question might be whether $2 million is really the necessary minimum or would such fuck you status wannabe peep be able to be o.k. with $1 million.. which yeah, is half the quantity of expected passive income of $3,333 rather than $6,667 per month.

We should be capable of figuring out these kinds of things for our lil selfies, including having a financial/psychological cushion that is NOT too unreasonable that will still allow us to pull the "fuck you" lever at a time in our lives that we should be able to still enjoy it while trying to appreciate what real world factors we are dealing with, including known, unknowns and unknown unknowns.

Okay if two million in btc is f u status you need three million not 2. if you cash the 3 and pay tax ending up with 2 million in cash gives me 33 years at 6666.66 a month.

I will concede Philip that there could be several ways of getting at both $2million as the starting out presumption principle, and also $6,666.67 per month as the projected income from that amount.  Sometimes I write  about this "fuck you" status so frequently in this thread and then in other places, and then I do not always show my work very well.  

Of course, I am probably no saint, either because it's not like I had the "fuck you" status formula sorted out in my head from the start; I kind of adapted such fuck you status formula, to some extent based on writing it down a few times and also from some of the feedback that guys were giving about what I had previously written.

I will concede that your formula might work too, but surely I can see that you are using different presumptions in order to get at the $6,666.67 income from accumulating such $2million principle (and you end up adjusting it to $3million.. all fair in love and war, but surely a differing set of assumptions and I don't even believe that some of your assumptions are very practical when I really look them over).  

In any event, let me try to explain some of the presumptions underlying terms of my formula.

First, with the actual $2 million as the target. I recognize that there are guys with higher and lower standards of living needs and I just thought that $2 million would be a great reasonable compromise position that guys can work with.  Some guys have suggested that they need way more (like $10 million or $40 million or some bullshit like that), and sometimes I just want stick with more basics and even appreciate how much power comes, even from a mere $2 million in principle because actual passive income tends to be a very real powerful thing.  

Think about it.  With passive income, we do not have to do shit (except maybe just keep track of our accounts), and we have a passive income coming in of $6,666.67 per month.  

Of course, on the other side of the goal of the $2 million principle amount, there were guys who were saying that they were not aspiring to that much because NOT only their needs were NOT very high or that they were living in an area of the world in which the cost of living was quite humble.  Even $500k was put out there as a kind of reasonable target for some guys to reach fuck you status - and surely, I am not going quibble exactly if guys can really be comfortable in their own skin with a mere $1,666.67 per month of passive income, and I surely know a quite a few people (even in the USA) who live off of way smaller amounts than $1,666.67 per month.  

So, of course the target amount of the principle can be adjusted based on a variety of considerations, including if some guys might be old as fuck already, and if they do not already have something close to $500k as their principle, they do not have a lot of time to work towards building the amount that they can aspire to have, so they likely have to work with the amount that they have rather than expecting that amount to go shooting up all of a sudden under some kind of miracle projections... because even though we get all kinds of get-rich-quick stories in the crypto space, one of the ways to actually lose your principle is to end up buying into some of those get-rich-quick schemes rather than working with what you got and trying to preserve it, build it reasonably and even count your blessings for any kind of price appreciation that you are able to achieve (and can lock-in) that is greater than your previously hopefully modestly designed principle building trajectory.

Second:how to calculate passive income from $2 million principle
I am using a relatively conservative traditional 4% formula for the presumptions that if you are putting your capital to work in a variety of ways, you should be able to maintain the value of the capital by withdrawing about 4% per year in perpetuity because you are able to find ways to earn at least that amount of 4% per year on the principle that you have.  

Don't get me wrong in regards to bitcoin.  With bitcoin, you do not need to put your bitcoins anywhere except for in your own private wallet in order to anticipate that they are going to appreciate on the value of your BTC on average 4% per year.  In other words, you do not need to increase the size of your BTC stash by 4% per year in order for your BTC stash to become worth at least 4% more in value per year  (remember that bitcoin is designed to pump forever, and we have already witnessed way greater than 4% per year gains on our bitcoin, so the presumptions of continued 4% per year gains in value seem decently conservative),

In other words, I am presuming that you can comfortably withdraw 4% per year from your bitcoin stash, and your bitcoins on average are going to price appreciate at least an average of 4% per year.  

So with $6,666.67 per month, I am not even talking about getting into withdrawing principle.  $2 million * 4% = $80k / 12 = $6666.67 per month.

Now if you are not in bitcoin, and you are in other assets besides bitcoin, you may need to put those other assets to work in order to ensure that they are earning on average of at least 4% per year, and there is nothing wrong with having other assets, even if their market performance is likely going to vary from one another to some degree.  

Also, my earlier response already accounted for the need to be pricing your assets at their potential extreme bottoms in order to maintain the bottom of whatever you our fuck you status happens to be, even though when you incrementally cash out (or make withdrawals from your accounts), whether bi-weekly, monthly, quarterly bi-annually, annually or some other increment, you are going to be cashing out value at the then current price of the various assets that are put to work in differing ways.  

If you have all of your assets in cash, then cash is likely not working for you, and in the coming years might be working against you in terms of value appreciation.  There are few asset managers who are going to be suggesting to keep all your assets in cash or to NOT have them working, unless you are almost dead and they are cashing out quickly, including cashing out principle too or some other shorter term horizon to extract all of the value from the portfolio of assets.

Let's say for example, you have the 307.7 BTC that I had already suggested from my earlier post to be today's minimum $2 million value (based on the $6,500 BTC bottom price $2million/$6,500=307.7BTC), and you feeling that you want to be in fuck you status merely because you have reached your BTC accumulation goal, and why not start now, especially since a 4% withdrawal rate is presumed to be sustainable forever anyhow, and if your fuck you status goal has been reached, then there should be no better time than the present to start fuck you status living, right?

Anyhow, you decide to start implementing your cashing out plan immediately, so maybe you want to cash out half a year's allocation... just to have some float because you do not really know where the BTC price is going to go in the next 6 months, so you could decide to cash out $6,666 per month x 6 = $40k (3.42 BTC) (current price $11,700) or you could cash out 2%, which would be 6.154 BTC, which would be currently about $72k.  

So, sure there is a decently large difference in terms of how much you would like to cash out, and some discretion in terms of how much you cash out at any given time, which might put you in more difficult times at the next time that you decide to cash out some more income from your BTC stash.  So you would be in a different place if BTC prices were at $17,250 in 6 months or maybe BTC prices go down to the projected bottom around $6,500, and you can decide if you are going to cash out an additional 2% of your remaining BTC stash for the year, and your total stash would be somewhere between 301.546 BTC and 304.28 BTC depending upon which option you had exercised in the withdrawal from 6 months earlier in the year.  

Of course, in some ways, you could make the whole matter simpler in terms of your not having to worry about the BTC price if you just cash out every month at .33% * 307.7 BTC (currently $11,880 = 1.01541 BTC) or every two weeks at .167% * 307.7 BTC (currently $6,012 = .513859 BTC).  Simpler in terms of not calculating BTC price might be easier than the accounting that might come from more frequent BTC cashenings.  

Another alternative would be to just cash out $3,333 per two weeks (currently .28487179 BTC) or $6667 per month (currently .56982906 BTC) and don't worry about the BTC price, unless the price happens to go below the $6,500 theoretical bottom that puts your capital below the $2 million fuck you status... if you have changes in your principle and your bottom price presumptions, then you might have to titrate down the amounts of your withdrawals until either the BTC price goes up or some other ways to get you back into your target "fuck you" status.

Also, as you continue to withdraw BTC from your stash, then of course, you may have to monitor its value from time to time to make sure that it's value does not go outside of your parameters, and there can be advantages and disadvantages of holding a variety of assets, rather than just BTC... which most wealthy people do not have their assets all tied into one category, but surely there are some who do do that, and have a large wealth cushion, too.


Now if I did all of the above and btc goes to 50k a coin I would never be happy I cashed in the three million in coin or about 290 coins.

Well, if you decide to completely diversify out of bitcoin into cash, then that would be something that I would not be recommending, and I doubt that there are very many folks who manage their portfolios by diversifying into cash unless they are planning to die soon or to completely liquidate their principle but sure some people are going to feel better to go to a passive income status based on their value held in fiat rather than having it either in bitcoin or some combination of assets.

If I was looking to cash 290 coins. I would need at least 210 more to hodl.

Now the numbers above mean I need 500 coins .

Your formulas are seeming unrealistic, but I suppose if you are going to go totally to cash then maybe you would need way more BTC in order to feel comfortable converting it all over to cash?  I am not suggesting to do anything like that, and so guys can be their own worst enemy sometimes, but hey people are going to calculate value and what risks that they feel comfortable with in a variety of ways.  

I had gotten out of my attachment to getting into fiat quite a while back, but I understand the inclination to want to get into fiat.. it is likely a real concern that people have when they are calculating what to do and how much they believe that they need to accomplish their various financial and psychological comfort level objectives.


I am 63 if you are younger add 9 coins for each year you are younger.

I e

63 you need 500. cash 290
62 you need 509. cash 295
61 you need 518 cash  300

most people here dont have that much coin.

I really do not believe that you need that many coin, especially if $2 million principle is your goal, and like I mentioned, if you are calculating a BTC price bottom as currently in the $6,500 arena (the current 200 week moving average), then that is 307.7 BTC, currently.  

I believe that it would be completely silly to cash them into fiat right away, and if you start to live off of 4% per year, then you can start right now when your money is working for you, and of course, we should be able to presume a 4% per year return from bitcoin.. I think that a 4% per year return from bitcoin on average is reasonable and it is even conservative (and remember the calculating of the 4% per year should merely be the moving up of the bottom which is currently at about $6,500 - and we also know that the current BTC spot price moves all over the place in the short term, but the spot price is not the one that we monitor for the withdrawing of the 4% per year.. so long as we are above the bottom price, presumably going up 4% per year, too).

Whether you are 63 years old, 40 years old or 75 years old, you can still make the same presumptions.  Of course, the younger you are, the more that you want to make sure that your presumptions are solid and that they are playing out because you do not want to be digging into your principle if you are younger.  When you get older, there is likely less risk to actually starting to dig into your principle because you are likely anticipating digging into your principle, at some point anyhow... but the 4% per year is a young man's game and should be a perpetually sustainable game, once you start it so long as all of your underlying presumptions are correct.  

Anyhow, cashing out at 4% per year could be measured as 1% per quarter or .33% per month, .167% every 2 weeks.. or some other timeline equivalent measurement that is comfortable for you.

Hopefully, I clarified what I was trying to say rather than making matters more complicated.
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August 25, 2020, 03:39:38 AM
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Good golly Miss Molly, the devs can meme Shocked Well Wuille can sorta Undecided

https://twitter.com/pwuille/status/1297630790713348096?s=20  Cool

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August 25, 2020, 04:19:06 AM

<snip>
Hopefully, I clarified what I was trying to say rather than making matters more complicated.

I read it in full, believe it or not...
If I would sell btc, it would not be a slow withdrawal to simply "live".
It has to be something profound, sorry JJG.
However, who knows.
BTW, you forgot taxes on that 80K/year.
Suddenly, it is less to much less.
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August 25, 2020, 05:29:48 AM

Roach's mistakes were largely in mid 2016 when he sold all his BTC in the $700 arena, and patted himself on the back for being such a genius...

Yeah Jay, thanks, I'm aware of that story.
Not that I believe it for a freaking second though.

WO'ers that -presumably- sold everything at the bottom, whilst screaming about it:

2016 > r0ach
2020 > mindrust
2024 > ?

And so on.
Please update Juan and notify Gee. Cool



I read it in full, believe it or not...

Impressive. Wishing you a fast recovery.
I have a hard cap. For safety reasons.
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August 25, 2020, 05:38:08 AM
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Very interesting to see Fidelity's view on #bitcoin  and stock to flow: "Commodities with a [high S2F] have historically served as superior stores of value. [..] Bitcoin’s stock-to-flow will eclipse that of gold following the next halving (2024)."
fidelitydigitalassets.com/bin-public/060…
https://twitter.com/100trillionusd/status/1297803898737090560?s=21
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August 25, 2020, 05:53:12 AM

<snip>
Hopefully, I clarified what I was trying to say rather than making matters more complicated.

I read it in full, believe it or not...
If I would sell btc, it would not be a slow withdrawal to simply "live".
It has to be something profound, sorry JJG.
However, who knows.
BTW, you forgot taxes on that 80K/year.
Suddenly, it is less to much less.

Gosh Biodom.  Once you reach your wealth accumulation target (whether that is $2 million or $10 million or some other amount) that you believe is sufficiently comfortable to preserve your previous accustomed standard of living, then if you want to bulk (rather than incrementally) diversify your BTC portion into some other assets then you are more than free to accomplish those kinds of discretionary diversifications.

I was not even suggesting only one method, but I guess I was still attempting to focus on how the income that could be generated from bitcoin, since the last time I checked I thought that we were in a bitcoin thread, but it still does not even necessarily mean that any guy should be going complete bitcoin.. that seems to be far from what a vast majority of us regular bitcoiners in the WO have been advocating, including yours truly, and you should realize that about me by now, especially if you torture ur lil selfie by reading the whole thing from time to time.    Cheesy Cheesy Cheesy Cheesy


I am not forgetting taxes, just like I am not forgetting various other expenses or other income sources that guys might have.  As we know some expenses and even some income sources are necessities and some are discretionary and some fall in a kind of middle ground.

I did not go through all of the expenses and possible sources of income because I figured that guys could do some of those particularized tailoring for themselves. 

In regards to taxes, specifically, Capital gains taxes are 15% in some jurisdictions, which tends to be less than regular income taxes, and presumably if you have a cost basis, then the whole $80k per year would not be profits (most of us are not that lucky in terms of our costs per BTC).. and I hope that guys should already be accounting for a variety of those kinds of related matters when they figure out how much they need per month to live and how much of a float they feel that they need (including that the amount and the float will likely change from time to time, too).

Seems that I am starting with some relatively straight-forward calculations, and if you believe that you need more than $80k per year to live in terms of that passive income, then you can adjust the amount that you feel that you need to a level that would be more appropriate for your targeted life-style. 

By the way, I recall that I had said to you previously, Biodom, that it seems to me that you seem inclined to talk yourself out of reaching fuck you status.. and sure, each of has our penchants and you do not even need to accept my hypothetical levels, and surely I understand there are individualized balancing of concerns and I have sympathies if any guy who ends up pulling the fuck you lever too early while at the same time sympathies for guys who could pull the fuck you lever, but instead choose to work for the man until they drop dead from stress or otherwise getting beaten up on a regular basis while considering working for a living to be "enjoyable."   Tongue Tongue Tongue 

Presenting the various scenarios and even attempting to plan should help guys to engage in their own particularized planning and reaching conclusions regarding thresholds and even important considerations that they can throw into the mix here, too.
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