Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion

[vapourminer]

Even though life is good in these JJG-landia parts, I have not quite gotten to the level of abundance to either treat guests or have confidence to dish out cash/food advances.



Sorry about dat, vm; I feel badly.    I have come to appreciate that it's a dog eat dog world, out there. 

wow thats cold. even for an AI 

Does an AI have knockers like that?
#justsaying

judging by your hat avatar (if you squint with poor lighting and enough drugs), well, yes maybe it would.

just sayin
 

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[JayJuanGee]

Just misclicked on Speculation: guys there is a whole bunch of other people out there! They say price is going to sharply decrease, an ETF will never be approved and you need to scalp the 15 minute chart.

Wish I would have known all this years ago, now just holding a bag .

What is an ETF and why Bitcoin needs that, whatever that is  ? But seriously, aren't they exactly the same guys who even in March's crash claimed the halving was priced in? We know their thinking - they always expect some unrealistic low price to fill their bags. Instead, they are left behind bitter nocoiners.

I was thinking some kind of similar response as you, ivomm, to the evergreen repeated theme concept that we have to have a down before we can go up, and there were a lot of peeps that got screwed out of establishing an adequate bitcoin stash in 2016/early-2017-ish because of such seemingly problematic conceptions.

This time is different?  I am having doubts.

There continue to be so many new peeps that come into the bitcoin space (and of course the scammy overall crypto space), and the old selling points seem to continue to work, even though we can look back and verify that some subtle variation of those same selling points have already been played a few times.

Still seems that the smarter punchline out of this whole old wine in a new flask situation is to just continue to buy BTC and to make sure that each of us has enough BTC for UP, just in case down or more sideways does not happen.

I will definitely concede that none of us really knows, so each of us just have to do what we believe best prepares us on a personal level (without being too smart for our own good), and hope that we do not get our bets too wrong that we are not able to profit from what seem to be ongoingly pretty decent asymmetric odds in favor of king daddy.

Looks like we're in danger of dropping below $11k USD/BTC.

HODL strong, gentlemen.

$11,261, holding strong at the moment, I hope the $11,000 holds. I am not in the mood for a return to $9,xxx or something.
Bears, you’ve had enough fun now, it’s time for higher highs.

Damn, don't even mention 9k. I couldn't stand seeing any more more Vegeta pics.

Please, no more 4 digits BTC.

It seems way too early presume that 4 digits are gone forever.  

Each of us should attempt to be somewhat realistic in our own BTC price expectations.

Sure, we might never witness 4 digits again, but even some of the most bullish of BTC price analyzers appreciate the reality of short term DOWNity, no matter how much some of us might prefer such DOWNity to NOT happen, including the fact that BTC's 200 week moving average is currently a wee bit over $6,500 which such 200 WMA continues to be a reasonable measure for where downward extremes could end up and do happen in bitcoin from time to time.. maybe even more frequently than some of us would prefer.. because they certainly are stressful periods, even for the strongest of BTC HODLers...

If we have been in the BTC space for a while, we should appreciate that one of the great ways to shake some additional weak hands out of their BTC is to manipulate some extreme DOWNities that causes even those who believe that they are strong hands to melt into pussies.... especially if such extreme DOWNity manipulation is coupled with a decently impactful shakening out of some froth from the shitcoin space (aka scammer defi, yield farming, eth heads, amongst others).

[JohnnyUranus]

Even though life is good in these JJG-landia parts, I have not quite gotten to the level of abundance to either treat guests or have confidence to dish out cash/food advances.

Mmmm.... I know which meal I would prefer....

Mmmm.... I know which boobs I would prefer....

[Phil_S]

Sideways 11xxx seems like a brand new thing.

In the past we only visited that range during up-and-down rollercoaster rides.

Now we have time to observe the scenery...



https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=5ecE91ZBusI

[JayJuanGee]

LOL. Ok, so remember how I mumbled something about $11k USD/BTC being in danger ?

Yeah, ignore all that 😂

On the positive side of this, regularly, you do tend to be a pretty damned decent measure about what might be happening on the 1-minute charts, bob.      for whatever that's worth..

 

[Toxic2040]

-snipped-

Mmmm....

+1 WOsMerit

-snipped-

Now we have time to observe the scenery...

+1 WOsMerit

-------

[Last of the V8s]

She needs a damn good ... shower. All that sand gets everywhere. Ev-ery-where.

[JayJuanGee]

......There are theoretically 3 main types of predictions.

1st - Bitcoin keeps the exponential 2x increase by a year.
2nd - Bitcoin loses the exponential increase, but enters a quadratic increase.
3rd - Bitcoin loses the quadratic increase and enters linear increase.

I don't give much chances for longer decrease and staying at the current levels for say 10 years (<0.1%). In the worst case 3, we have two example years - 2017 and 2019, which we may consider from linear point of view. 2017 added nearly 19K to the initial price 700. 2019 added 10k to the initial price 3K. So, in the worst bullish linear scenario 3, we will have an average increase by 10K-20K each year. Therefore, in 10 year we will have prices >100K. Hence 300K doesn't look so impossible to me. And if the super duper hyper epic exponential growth ~30x from 2017 is repeated, then even in one year we may reach 300K starting from 10K.

A note to myself: Please try not to cheat by selling much in the $30K area, while you may sell above $300K a few months/years later.

I recognize that your three calculation scenarios do attempt to categorize how bitcoin's growth might happen, even while your further discussion also seems to meld the three categories into a kind of "anything can happen" but most likely UPpity.    

By the way, I cannot really disagree with any of what you are saying, ivomm.

In any event, there are some thoughts that every halvening will consistently cause a 10x increase in BTC price per halvening period in the event that demand stays the same (but I believe that the more nuanced BTC price predictions do at least presume a bit of a linear increase in demand for BTC in order to achieve 10x per 4 year period, otherwise why would BTC achieve anything more than 2x per 4 years if the demand actually were to stay exactly the same for each 4-year period?).

Of course, these have to be kind of ballparking BTC price projections, since if we look at 10x per cycle surely would result in something less than a 2x price per year increase..  Because 2x per year does end up having exponential effects when extrapolated out 4 years resulting in: 0=1x; 1=2x; 2=4x; 3=8x; 4=16x.. .so yeah, 16x in 4 years does end up being more than 10x per 4 years.. and gosh I have my doubts about whether 16x would be sustainable, every 4 years... even presuming some kind of linear (rather than exponential increase in demand), and yeah metcalfe principles likely account for a lot of these exponential like theorizing that have been around in BTC-landia for years.  Hory sheet!!!  

We also can appreciate that at some point, there is going to need to be some kind of flattening of the UPward trajectory of BTC's prices, but without really knowing if demand stays the same, or if demand rises in a kind of linear way or how much demand might change with the changes of happenings in and around the space, and without exactly knowing how demand might change (even if we know what supply is going to do**) we get into crazy-ass and difficult-to-plot trajectories - which surely, even though stock-to-flow does seem to account for a kind of straight-line increase in demand, it also seems to continue where we might continue to go into the next couple of halvenings, which should be more than enough to get us well beyond $300k, crazy as that might seem.. but still, who knows, for sure?

**By the way, there are so many bitcoin naysayers who seem to under appreciate the power of actually knowing part of the supply/demand formula, which is the supply portion.  It is almost as if we (bitcoin HODLers) are cheating by knowing the supply ahead of time, but bitcoin naysayers still want to continue to act as if in Bitcoinlandia there are way too many unknowns, when we, bitcoin HODLers, are given half of the formula in advance (as if the bitcoin naysayers did not get the memo... or understand what the memo says...  poor fucks!!!!   ).

Edit:  I fixed 32x to 16x.. Seems to me that 16x is a more accurate assessment of doubling each year extrapolated out to 4 years (not 32x in my original calculation)..

[Last of the V8s]

Still, it's Thursday tomorrow, thanks Gott  

[JayJuanGee]

Even though life is good in these JJG-landia parts, I have not quite gotten to the level of abundance to either treat guests or have confidence to dish out cash/food advances.

Mmmm.... I know which meal I would prefer....

Don't be a hater, lightfoot.

Does an AI have knockers like that?
#justsaying

judging by your hat avatar (if you squint with poor lighting and enough drugs), well, yes maybe it would.

just sayin

That's a low blow, vapourminer.    below the belt, dare I say?

Still, it's Thursday tomorrow, thanks Gott  

Haters everywhere.....

[Last of the V8s]

https://ftalphaville.ft.com/2020/08/24/1598288383000/From-bitcoin-to-QAnon--bits-to-qbits/
archived https://archive.vn/WWuaE

Izzy Kaminy has outdone herself

Both stem from the conspiratorial realm. Bitcoin is focused on the idea that the financial system is a corrupt intermediary whose true agenda is to control of the money supply, and further its own empowerment. QAnon is predicated on the conspiracy that the government, and all other notable institutions, have been infiltrated by untrustworthy elements whose true agenda is their own empowerment at the cost of the people’s.
Both are centred on myth-making and encourage belief systems that keep their communities ever waiting for a promised “Storm” or a “Mooning” event.
Both are remarkably resilient to disappointment of their predictions failing. In bitcoin’s case there’s the ongoing failed prediction that the cryptocurrency will displace the dollar, while in QAnon’s case there’s the unrealised prophecies of mass arrests, or JFK Jr resurrecting in July. In both cases the community takes the failures on the chin, rises to the challenge and doubles down.

[Arriemoller]

btw...where is judgement cat sitting on the kitchen table?   meow?

you mean my boss, the avatar cat?

he passed on. seeing him on the forum was bumming me out so he now lives on in my memories. although xhomerx work is so good i printed it out and have it hanging on the wall along with my other feline companions ive had the honor of being companions of over the years.

thank you again xhomerx, your work will forever be displayed in a place of honor.

not having an avatar matches the empty spot in my heart so it seems appropriate to leave it this way for now.

I'm so sorry for your loss, it's always hard to loose a loved pet.
Great idea with the "wall of pets" I think I will do the same.
No merits to give unfortunately, but this post deserve one.

[Biodom]

Tangential to bitcoin, but I just looked at the long term charts of some prominent tech stocks; AAPL, MSFT, AMZN, GOOGL, ADBE, NFLX, FB
They are ALL exponential and in some cases (AAPL, MSFT, ADBE) significantly deviating from the very long term stock patterns.
I don't know what to make of it, but at a minimum such exponential moves are unsustainable, obviously.

When the break would come, nobody knows, but it will come, unless all this means that stocks are already pricing in high real inflation (that is pending) while bonds don't, suggesting a market that is simply crazy. Not going more into stonks, looked just for fun.

Not sure why btc is not supra-exponential yet.

[sirazimuth]

avatar cat?

he passed on.
[...]
not having an avatar matches the empty spot in my heart so it seems appropriate to leave it this way for now.

@Vapourminer Sorry for you loss

Sorry for your loss, vapourminer.

[...] I'm really sorry to hear your cat has passed on.  At the same time it's nice to know he's got a special place in your heart and on your wall.

thanks guys. that means a lot to me.

My condolences vp. I dread the day when I lose my catty puss friends.


(that's a yawn-smile...not a hiss, lol)

She needs a damn good ... shower. All that sand gets everywhere. Ev-ery-where.

What...you mean between her toes... amirite?....

[Last of the V8s]

https://bitcoindevlist.com/

This website lists people working on Bitcoin and related projects. The goal is to increase the visibility of contributors to the space that are accepting donations. If you are currently working on a bitcoin related open source project, submit a PR to get yourself added.

Being listed on this site should not be considered an endorsement. The order individuals are shown is randomized every visit.

huh interesting, some I confess I didn't know of or what they're up to, maybe worth sending some sats?

[sirazimuth]

Congrats to both JSRAW and d_eddie. Well deserved and welcome to the club.
Toxic on deck.

Lesson 1 on how to become a bitcointalk legendary...

-Hang out in the wob thread.
-don't spam,
-don't commit shitcoinery....
-and don't be a dick.

(I know... I can be a dick, but I was grandfathered in...)

[JayJuanGee]

Sideways 11xxx seems like a brand new thing.

In the past we only visited that range during up-and-down rollercoaster rides.

Now we have time to observe the scenery...

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=5ecE91ZBusI

According to the top 100 days in bitcoin (weighted traded volume), we have spent a decent amount of time in the $11ks, relatively speaking - 52 days, and that is NOT even including the days that have disappeared off of the chart below $11,284.

Edit:  I just went back to BTC's top 100 days list, and I counted that there were an additional 12 days between $11k and $11,284 that fell off of that list (since August 14), so as of yesterday, that would be that BTC has spent 64 days in the $11ks in its life (additional days within the $11ks: evidence, here).

I would also like to proclaim that I am having some difficulties figuring out if we are more inclined towards short-term up or short-term down.

Of course, my most recent BTC orders to fill had been the buy orders, but when BTC prices are bouncing around $11,500, then we are nearly smack-dab in the middle of my $900 spread between questioning whether the next order to fill is going to be a buy order or a sell order?  Which one?  Am I giving too much away in regards to where my orders are?  

Just saying being around smack dab in the middle of the spread causes a certain amount of cushion either way.. like a feeling that nothing (in regards to the buy/sell orders) is going to be happening, soon.....

I am somewhat o.k. with NOT having very much happen to my orders (price comes to orders, the passive part), and of course, if the BTC price goes higher then the spreads go higher, but sometimes when BTC prices do not seem to be moving very much, then sometimes even I might contribute towards having more "action" by narrowing the spread amounts a wee bit (which might no longer be passive, depending on spin of the situation).  

[Torque]

Tangential to bitcoin, but I just looked at the long term charts of some prominent tech stocks; AAPL, MSFT, AMZN, GOOGL, ADBE, NFLX, FB
They are ALL exponential and in some cases (AAPL, MSFT, ADBE) significantly deviating from the very long term stock patterns.
I don't know what to make of it, but at a minimum such exponential moves are unsustainable, obviously.

When the break would come, nobody knows, but it will come, unless all this means that stocks are already pricing in high real inflation (that is pending) while bonds don't, suggesting a market that is simply crazy. Not going more into stonks, looked just for fun.

Yeah, they are all pricing in real asset price inflation, which by some estimates is between 6-10%/yearly. So they have to print money and pump stonks to outrun it, otherwise they are actually deflating (i.e., losing wealth). Just look at a stonk chart of Venezuela for where it's going. Just like a hockey stick, straight up. It's a melt-up. The problem comes when there are no more buyers, i.e., corporations vis a vis central banks have bought up 99.99% of their own stocks. Who will they then sell to? That's when the final straw will break. When will that happen? Nobody knows, but probably when main street inflation becomes unbearable (things cost too much for Average Joe to even live any more).

Not sure why btc is not supra-exponential yet.

I feel like it's because Bitcoin still has a public image problem, no thanks to the negative MSM that seeks to slam it constantly. But hopefully one day it can overcome it.

[bitebits]

More bitcoins have been lost in the past 10 years than will be found in the next 100 years.

https://twitter.com/lopp/status/1298563747003486209

[Globb0]

Haters everywhere.....