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Question: When will BTC get back above $70K:
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Author Topic: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion  (Read 26489308 times)
This is a self-moderated topic. If you do not want to be moderated by the person who started this topic, create a new topic. (174 posts by 3 users with 9 merit deleted.)
AlcoHoDL
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September 21, 2020, 05:07:17 AM
Merited by 600watt (1)

Grats! Well earned AlcoHoDL

AlcoHoDL : congrats on Legendary, the path is still long for me !

On an unrelated note: Congrats @AlcoHoDL!

Congratulations AlcoHoDL, well deserved. Smiley

Thanks guys! And equally to all WO members!

As Jimbo would say... Go WO, go!
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September 21, 2020, 05:11:02 AM
Merited by El duderino_ (7), AlcoHoDL (1)

https://twitter.com/nickgiambruno/status/1307389546561179653

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A trillion seconds ago was 30,000 B.C.

A quadrillion seconds ago was 32 million years ago.

A quintillion seconds ago was 32 billion years ago. (The age of the universe is 13.8 billion years.)

The computing power that secures Bitcoin is 139 quintillion calculations PER SECOND.
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September 21, 2020, 05:21:03 AM
Merited by aesma (1), Last of the V8s (1)

Satoshi’s actual vision:

Quote from: Satoshi Nakamoto (bitcoin.pdf, §11, p. 6)
We consider the scenario of an attacker trying to generate an alternate chain faster than the honest chain.  Even if this is accomplished, it does not throw the system open to arbitrary changes, such as creating value out of thin air or taking money that never belonged to the attacker.  Nodes are not going to accept an invalid transaction as payment, and honest nodes will never accept a block containing them.  An attacker can only try to change one of his own transactions to take back money he recently spent.

I dislike quoting Satoshi in this context, as if for argument from authority.  The explanation below was drafted in my own words, off the top of my head, before I went back to refresh my memory on what the Bitcoin whitepaper says.  It is a document now primarily of historical interest, although some of its astonishing technical insights are still quite relevant.

Whereas that is the sacred design of Bitcoin v0.1.  Just sayin’.



You asswipe.
nullius (you fucking liar)

My, my, Mr Bear.  Something must have rankled.

So, anyway, you may be an audio engineer (hereby stated upon information and belief).  In that case, you should easily understand this analogy:  Your knowledge of Bitcoin security and of Segwit is on the same level as the audio knowledge of people who believe that in PCM digital audio, the number of samples per second determines the sizes of the tiny little stair-steps in the output waveform.

You may not need a lecture about Nyquist, but you certainly have much to learn about Bitcoin.

For others reading this thread, PSA:  There are no tiny little stair-steps.  In accord with the Nyquist Theorem, the discrete samples mathematically reproduce a perfectly smooth waveform.  And no, a miner “ANYONECANSPEND” attack on Segwit could not steal coins.  This is basic stuff...



I must misunderstand you somehow. You seem to be saying that: should a majority of SAH256 mining power choose to revert to pre-segwit protocol, and to defend that decision by attacking any competing chain, they would be literally unable to do so. Is that your claim?

Yes, indeed.  To help you understand why, let me fix this for you:

I must misunderstand you somehow. You seem to be saying that: should a majority of SHA256 mining power choose to revert to pre-segwit protocol violate consensus rules by arbitrarily spending coins without the needed signatures, inflating the money supply, or whatever else may suit their whims, and to defend that decision by attacking any competing chain, they would be literally unable to do so. Is that your claim?

My claim is only and exactly that in accord with Bitcoin’s security model, the violation of Segwit rules is the same as the violation of any other consensus rules.

For miners to “revert” Segwit would be no different in practice than for malicious miners to activate new rules implementing demurrage that eats up your coins in cold storage, or creating 21 trillion new bitcoins, or letting them spend any coin they want without checking signatures.

Which they are “literally unable to do”.

Because the code for nodes to accept such things does not exist.  Code to “revert to a pre-Segwit protocol” literally does not exist in Core.  If it did, that would be a hell of a CVE.

Why is this so hard for some people to understand?  Is it a matter of confusion over “ANYONECANSPEND”?  That is only a cute trick to add new rules without confusing non-upgraded nodes.  It is otherwise irrelevant.  Segwit nodes do not have a codepath that lets miners make them switch off Segwit validation logic and treat Segwit transactions as spendable by anyone.  Segwit nodes will neither accept nor propagate blocks that violate the totality of their hardcoded consensus rules—a set of rules which, following the August 2017 activation, includes all Segwit rules (thus both permitting and enforcing Segwit transactions).  So, good luck carrying off an “attack” with blocks that will be ignored as if completely nonexistent by every node that has upgraded since October 2016, i.e. pretty much everybody.  It’s the dumbest attack idea that I have ever heard of.



A colluding malicious majority of hashpower could indeed wreck Bitcoin.  Or BCH.  Or BSV.  Or any other coin based on any similar design.

To do so, violating consensus rules is neither necessary, nor sufficient, nor profitable:  They could instead just rewrite blockchain history with a plain-old 51% attack that will fool validating nodes (but can only achieve double-spends).

N.b. that a 51% attack is by its nature an attack on “any competing chain” (i.e., the other 49%’s chain).  Again:  This does not even require violating consensus rules; and non-mining nodes are totally powerless against it!

For that reason, a malicious majority of hashpower is a threat explicitly beyond the scope of Bitcoin’s security model.  That is n00b-level knowledge.  Is it news to you?

But even a malicious majority of miners cannot steal coins that they never owned—Segwit or otherwise.



You can’t have your cake and eat it, too.  The rules for spending coins sent to an address starting with a “1” are enforced by exactly the same security model as protects coins sent to addresses starting with “bc1”.  Whereas you are trying artifically to construct some notion of a hashpower majority attack which can violate some consensus rules, whilst remaining bound by others.  You don’t know how to ask the right question, viz.:  What stops miners from just spending any coins they want?  Answer:  Consensus rules.  Enforced by validating nodes.  Just as Satoshi said in the Bitcoin whitepaper.  That was his vision.

I have said before, and I will say again:

Full nodes do not blindly “follow the longest chain”.  They follow the chain independently validated by them which has the highest total POW.  A miner (or 51+% of miners) who produced invalid blocks would only be wasting hashrate, and likely risking widespread blacklisting of IP addresses.  It doesn’t matter if the invalid blocks steal money from Segwit transactions, steal money from old-style transactions, create 21 billion new coins, or are filled with gibberish from /dev/random.  An invalid block is an invalid block, and shall be promptly discarded by all full nodes—period.



More than half of this post was cut on preview, to avoid waste.  The rest can be summed up as (a) jbreher continues to do his usual Faketoshi apologia whilst denying it, (b) he lacks reading comprehension skills, and (c) he is correct on one point:  I have no experience whatsoever with popular music.  I do not produce it.  I do not even listen to it!  Not all music is pop.
AlcoHoDL
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September 21, 2020, 05:27:24 AM
Last edit: September 21, 2020, 05:39:15 AM by AlcoHoDL

https://twitter.com/nickgiambruno/status/1307389546561179653

Quote
A trillion seconds ago was 30,000 B.C.

A quadrillion seconds ago was 32 million years ago.

A quintillion seconds ago was 32 billion years ago. (The age of the universe is 13.8 billion years.)

The computing power that secures Bitcoin is 139 quintillion calculations PER SECOND.

So, according to the above numbers, it takes only about 3 milliseconds (0.003 seconds) for the Bitcoin network to perform as many calculations as there are seconds since the birth of the universe!

In other words, in every second that passes, the above process is repeated more than 300 times!

Wow! Just WOW!
JayJuanGee
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September 21, 2020, 05:40:19 AM

[various jbreher comments]
The rest can be summed up as (a) jbreher continues to do his usual Faketoshi apologia whilst denying it, (b) he lacks reading comprehension skills, and (c) he is correct on one point:  I have no experience whatsoever with popular music.  I do not produce it. I do not even listen to it!  Not all music is pop.

hahahahahaha

I recall at one point, recently, you, nullius, had proclaimed that Phantom of the Opera was "pop" music and not worthy of a listen, and then at one point some random peep from the interwebs (perhaps yours truly?) suggested that you might try listening to such music, and thereafter you became a Phantom of the Opera fanastic.  

Point is that any of us interweb peeps could change some aspects of our preferences, and why not give dee bear a chance? (not that he deserves one.)

 Cheesy Cheesy Cheesy Cheesy Cheesy

https://twitter.com/nickgiambruno/status/1307389546561179653

Quote
A trillion seconds ago was 30,000 B.C.

A quadrillion seconds ago was 32 million years ago.

A quintillion seconds ago was 32 billion years ago. (The age of the universe is 13.8 billion years.)

The computing power that secures Bitcoin is 139 quintillion calculations PER SECOND.

So, according to the above numbers, it takes only about 3 milliseconds (0.003 seconds) for the Bitcoin network to perform as many calculations as there are seconds since the birth of the universe!

In other words, in every second that passes, the above process is repeated more than 300 times!

Wow! Just WOW!

You guys seem to be into:


BIG numbers!!!!!


Wow, just wow!



Congrats on your rankening UPpity, AlcoHoDL.     Wink
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September 21, 2020, 05:57:07 AM
Merited by AlcoHoDL (1), gappie (1)

https://twitter.com/nickgiambruno/status/1307389546561179653

Quote
A trillion seconds ago was 30,000 B.C.

A quadrillion seconds ago was 32 million years ago.

A quintillion seconds ago was 32 billion years ago. (The age of the universe is 13.8 billion years.)

The computing power that secures Bitcoin is 139 quintillion calculations PER SECOND.

So, according to the above numbers, it takes only about 3 milliseconds (0.003 seconds) for the Bitcoin network to perform as many calculations as there are seconds since the birth of the universe!

In other words, in every second that passes, the above process is repeated more than 300 times!

Wow! Just WOW!


thatiswowindeed!  139 quintillion calculations per second, but only 7 transactions made in that that same time. this is the polar opposite of efficiency. it shows how much of the power of this network goes into security and protection of those 7 transactions.

we are trained for efficiency. no matter what we do, we try to do it more efficiently next time. bitcoin is different. it gives up efficiency completely to ensure maximum security. that is counter-intuitive and makes it hard to understand and is one of the reasons for the existence of shitcoinery: "my blockchain is faster.."

the bitcoin algorithm is a monster. secured by 139 quintillion calculations per 7 transactions.

if you want to build a tank the equivalent thickness of the steel used would need to be 500yards. moves slow but no weapon existing could penetrate it, not even in theory.
AlcoHoDL
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September 21, 2020, 06:01:05 AM

https://twitter.com/nickgiambruno/status/1307389546561179653

Quote
A trillion seconds ago was 30,000 B.C.

A quadrillion seconds ago was 32 million years ago.

A quintillion seconds ago was 32 billion years ago. (The age of the universe is 13.8 billion years.)

The computing power that secures Bitcoin is 139 quintillion calculations PER SECOND.

So, according to the above numbers, it takes only about 3 milliseconds (0.003 seconds) for the Bitcoin network to perform as many calculations as there are seconds since the birth of the universe!

In other words, in every second that passes, the above process is repeated more than 300 times!

Wow! Just WOW!

You guys seem to be into:

BIG numbers!!!!!

Wow, just wow!

Congrats on your rankening UPpity, AlcoHoDL.     Wink

Thanks Jay, I appreciate it.

The above result just shows the sheer computing power of the Bitcoin decentralized supercomputing entity (wow, that sounds like coming from a Terminator movie). The age of the universe comparison doesn't really have any practical usefulness though. If you spit on the ground, the saliva coming out of your mouth will contain many more atoms than the seconds since the age of the universe. So what? Doesn't really mean anything...

But such comparisons do put things into perspective, and we do like BIG numbers (especially when it comes to the BTC/USD value).  Wink
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September 21, 2020, 06:03:27 AM
Merited by El duderino_ (7)

https://twitter.com/Y_deGaia/status/1307314824318197760?s=20

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Just had a corporate buy request at @ReserveBitcoin influenced by the MicroStrategy news.

It's happening.

 Grin
AlcoHoDL
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September 21, 2020, 06:04:02 AM

https://twitter.com/nickgiambruno/status/1307389546561179653

Quote
A trillion seconds ago was 30,000 B.C.

A quadrillion seconds ago was 32 million years ago.

A quintillion seconds ago was 32 billion years ago. (The age of the universe is 13.8 billion years.)

The computing power that secures Bitcoin is 139 quintillion calculations PER SECOND.

So, according to the above numbers, it takes only about 3 milliseconds (0.003 seconds) for the Bitcoin network to perform as many calculations as there are seconds since the birth of the universe!

In other words, in every second that passes, the above process is repeated more than 300 times!

Wow! Just WOW!

thatiswowindeed!  139 quintillion calculations per second, but only 7 transactions made in that that same time. this is the polar opposite of efficiency. it shows how much of the power of this network goes into security and protection of those 7 transactions.

we are trained for efficiency. no matter what we do, we try to do it more efficiently next time. bitcoin is different. it gives up efficiency completely to ensure maximum security. that is counter-intuitive and makes it hard to understand and is one of the reasons for the existence of shitcoinery: "my blockchain is faster.."

the bitcoin algorithm is a monster. secured by 139 quintillion calculations per 7 transactions.

if you want to build a tank the equivalent thickness of the steel used would need to be 500yards. moves slow but no weapon existing could penetrate it, not even in theory.

What you just said is even more WOW!
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September 21, 2020, 07:23:44 AM


thatiswowindeed!  139 quintillion calculations per second, but only 7 transactions made in that that same time. this is the polar opposite of efficiency. it shows how much of the power of this network goes into security and protection of those 7 transactions.

we are trained for efficiency. no matter what we do, we try to do it more efficiently next time. bitcoin is different. it gives up efficiency completely to ensure maximum security. that is counter-intuitive and makes it hard to understand and is one of the reasons for the existence of shitcoinery: "my blockchain is faster.."

the bitcoin algorithm is a monster. secured by 139 quintillion calculations per 7 transactions.

if you want to build a tank the equivalent thickness of the steel used would need to be 500yards. moves slow but no weapon existing could penetrate it, not even in theory.

That's a point when seeking for a valid argument in the bitcoin-gold comparison.
While some shitters are easy to move when the transaction numbers are high, bitcoins aren't.
Besides off-chain solutions and some anonymity-shitcoins (efficiency), bitcoin is THE CC for hodling and reserve (security). Combine that with the scarcity argument. It makes bitcoin extremely appropiate for institutional uses. Nobody can professionally ignore that. It's just a question of time.
The when-moon-people are just too impatient and also distracted by price charts of 2017, i expect quite a number of repetitions over the next halvening cycles until something like "price discovery" actually kicks in.  
My rookie tip: If you ever sell, don't sell it all, keep at least 10% of your corn for hodling.

EDIT: emphasized the part of the OQ i was mainly referring to.
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September 21, 2020, 07:45:19 AM

Congratulations AlcoHoDL, well deserved. Smiley

Indeed, very well deserved.... In a very short period of writing more as before—-> merit followed like crazy :-)

The dude a little more off...... normal going home from holiday on Thursday, was in a paradise hotel @ravello, but went home on Sunday.... Women’s and troubles..... She wasn’t ready for a bitcoiner and perhaps she was the first one to complain that I bought to much things as for myself as for her etc.... learned a lot last six months...

On the other side that was a thing that made her looking good, she wasn’t there for the wrong stuff, on the other side maybe I’m happy as well it ended, but damn why on holiday (wasn’t with a fight or anything)

First actions, installed that tinder crap for the first time in my life and it’s working as it seems  Roll Eyes
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September 21, 2020, 07:47:05 AM
Merited by LFC_Bitcoin (3)

Lfc was close to follow all my drama of the last days  Roll Eyes
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September 21, 2020, 08:01:19 AM

Quote
Binance Visa Cards Are Now Available in Europe. Get Up to 8% Cashback.
When you use your Binance Visa Card, you don’t have to worry about fees from our side. We charge zero subscription or maintenance fees, and transactions made in Euros are free of transaction charges (third-party fees may apply*). To make the deal even sweeter, for every purchase that you make with the Binance Visa Card, we are offering up to 8% cashback, the highest rate available in the market today! A virtual card will be available to you for immediate use upon approval of your application.  
https://www.binance.com/en/blog/421499824684900992/Binance-Visa-Cards-Are-Now-Available-in-Europe-Get-Up-to-8-Cashback  
read the contract to avoid surprises, but it seems interesting
nullius
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September 21, 2020, 08:03:27 AM
Merited by JayJuanGee (1)

[various jbreher comments]
The rest can be summed up as (a) jbreher continues to do his usual Faketoshi apologia whilst denying it, (b) he lacks reading comprehension skills, and (c) he is correct on one point:  I have no experience whatsoever with popular music.  I do not produce it. I do not even listen to it!  Not all music is pop.

hahahahahaha

I recall at one point, recently, you, nullius, had proclaimed that Phantom of the Opera was "pop" music and not worthy of a listen, and then at one point some random peep from the interwebs (perhaps yours truly?) suggested that you might try listening to such music, and thereafter you became a Phantom of the Opera fanastic.

Indeed (perhaps I must thank you?).  And I have become unaccountably fond of that boat-scene song from “TPhOTO”.  (Not a typo.  The ph in phantom is a digraph and should be abbreviated accordingly, as also seen in “Ph.D.”)

Beyond that, I illegally thumbed my nose at RIAA lawyers and obtained some of Sarah Brightman’s so-called “classical crossover” albums.  I am not much of an opera aficionado, and ’twould be ghastly gauche for me to pretend; but I pulled up some handy recordings of a famous primadonna whom I like, and did a voice-to-voice shootout on transparent speakers with a flat frequency response from 20Hz–22kHz.  I matched levels as closely as I could.

My first thought was that Miss Brightman’s recording engineer should be shot.  Dynamic range compression produces for me an effect as irritating as the proverbial fingernails on the chalkboard!  The sound is just lifelessly blaring, numb, monotonic—flatly loud and nothing else—a big block of audible assault on the senses.

Fortunately, it is a problem that does not exist in classical recordings:  Discriminating listeners would form a violent lynch party, not only complain about DRC on the Internet.  But it seems to be accepted in “classical crossover”.

After I adjusted myself to the artistic disorientation inflicted by abject lack of dynamic range, my second thought was that Miss Brightman’s recording engineer should be impaled, then burnt at the stake.  Her voice is drowned in the instrumentals, and this is clearly done at the mix.  I had to skip around a bit, and search for parts where I could actually hear her.  Unfortunately, this did not salvage her voice from the horribly artificial-sounding effects of a recording engineer who apparently fancied himself to be some kind of an artist.  What a delusion.  But at least I could hear her—sort of.

Thereupon I concluded that Miss Brightman’s voice is as alluring as she is generally, but it lacks power.  It sounds good on its own.  Stacked up against the voice of a real primadonna, it suddenly seems thin and weak.

Obviously, for a fair comparison, I selected climactic fortissimo passages of the primadonna:  Thanks to her idiotic recording engineer, poor Miss Brightman just sounds loud all the time.

Miss Brightman does have an extraordinary pitch range.  For that reason, I made sure that my primadonna, albeit technically a soprano, is one who, when desired, can drop all the way down pretty much to contralto.

Alas, this comparison is terribly unfair to Miss Brightman.  I suspect that she could have done much better, if her vocal artistry had not been scammed by her recording engineer.  He is an acoustical liar!

It is sad.  Though that said...


Miss Brightman wins for cover art.

Cheesy Cheesy Cheesy Cheesy Cheesy

Point is that any of us interweb peeps could change some aspects of our preferences, and why not give dee bear a chance? (not that he deserves one.)

Perhaps—if he forswears Faketoshi, bigblockerism, and dynamic range compression!  Moreover, although blockchain transparency is a bad thing, audio reproduction transparency is good.  As a production professional, he must “go the extra mile” to ensure that artists and listeners don’t get scammed with overprocessed, artificial, gimmicky blocks of big noise.
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September 21, 2020, 08:18:01 AM

@AlcoHoDL
Congratulations on the promotion, it will take me a few years to arrive
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September 21, 2020, 08:20:00 AM
Merited by JayJuanGee (1)

Congratulations AlcoHoDL, well deserved. Smiley

Indeed, very well deserved.... In a very short period of writing more as before—-> merit followed like crazy :-)

The dude a little more off...... normal going home from holiday on Thursday, was in a paradise hotel @ravello, but went home on Sunday.... Women’s and troubles..... She wasn’t ready for a bitcoiner and perhaps she was the first one to complain that I bought to much things as for myself as for her etc.... learned a lot last six months...

On the other side that was a thing that made her looking good, she wasn’t there for the wrong stuff, on the other side maybe I’m happy as well it ended, but damn why on holiday (wasn’t with a fight or anything)

First actions, installed that tinder crap for the first time in my life and it’s working as it seems  Roll Eyes

Thanks Dude! Couldn't have done it without you guys ('n' gal).

Don't worry about GF... Usually it's better to break up sooner rather than later, as it complicates things if you try to make it work for too long...

Her loss. Almost feels like the Laszlo pizza story. LOL. I bet she'll message you in a couple of years...
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September 21, 2020, 09:11:52 AM
Merited by El duderino_ (5)

Congratulations AlcoHoDL, well deserved. Smiley

Indeed, very well deserved.... In a very short period of writing more as before—-> merit followed like crazy :-)

The dude a little more off...... normal going home from holiday on Thursday, was in a paradise hotel @ravello, but went home on Sunday.... Women’s and troubles..... She wasn’t ready for a bitcoiner and perhaps she was the first one to complain that I bought to much things as for myself as for her etc.... learned a lot last six months...

On the other side that was a thing that made her looking good, she wasn’t there for the wrong stuff, on the other side maybe I’m happy as well it ended, but damn why on holiday (wasn’t with a fight or anything)

First actions, installed that tinder crap for the first time in my life and it’s working as it seems  Roll Eyes

Every princess wants to be queen, but only a few are able to take all the responsibility to make it.
So, el_dude, move on to the next princess  Cool

When i look back, six months is a good timespan to identify most (essential) troubles in a (blooming) relationship. If you can give it a YES after six months, you can start to aim on the six years area, imho.

EDIT: Forgot to congratulate, AlcoHoDL
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September 21, 2020, 09:57:50 AM
Merited by El duderino_ (5)

Every princess wants to be queen, but only a few are able to take all the responsibility to make it.
So, el_dude, move on to the next princess  Cool

When i look back, six months is a good timespan to identify most (essential) troubles in a (blooming) relationship. If you can give it a YES after six months, you can start to aim on the six years area, imho.

EDIT: Forgot to congratulate, AlcoHoDL

Thanks man, I appreciate it.

Very true what you're saying. 6 months is a good time frame to spot most troubles ahead.

Also important is to pass the "live together" test. It's all nice and sweet when you only meet to go out and have fun. Only when you live under the same roof will you know if you can really be together.

Anyways... I think The Dude is a ladies' man, so I'm pretty sure he won't have trouble getting another princess soon... If I had a daughter, I'd send her his way... Nice guy, coiner (most importantly), and a guaranteed life of luxury and pleasure... Wink  What more could a girl ask for?
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September 21, 2020, 10:14:35 AM

This correlation with legacy markets is god damn annoying. I don't even need to check the Bitcoin price any more, just check nasdaq, s&p, gold.

When is supply finally going to be overrun so that we can decouple from this bullshit.
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September 21, 2020, 10:18:59 AM
Merited by JayJuanGee (1), ivomm (1)

what were and what are the main counter arguments vs bitcoin? when it was new, everyone thought it was a stupid idea. it was said that bitcoin

-would not work
-will get hacked
-has no intrinsic value
-cannot scale
-will get outlawed
-is too complicated


around 2013, when it was already running for some years it was said that bitcoin

-will get hacked
-has no intrinsic value
-cannot scale
-is used by criminals and therefore
-will get outlawed
-is too complicated
-uses too much energy
-is a bubble

when shitcoin peddlers started their offensive a few years ago there came a new set of arguments

-is too slow
-is old tech
-fees too expensive
-will fade like MySpace

fast forward to present: what are the current arguments of bitcoin critics:

-will get hacked
-has no intrinsic value
-cannot scale
-is used by criminals and therefore
-will get outlawed
-is too complicated
-uses too much energy
-is a bubble
-is too slow
-is old tech
-fees too expensive
-will fade like MySpace

(please add to the list the arguments missing here)

what is surprising is that all counter arguments are from years ago. bitcoin is running for a decade now. the critics had enough time to dig all through it and come up with really well thought arguments. but they didn't. all those smart economists, all the gifted shitcoin proponents, all the scared bankers - all they do is echoing  the same old arguments from years before.

endeavors of this magnitude, with millions of people deploying billions of dollars into the project usually come with a shitload of trade-offs and compromises and mis-allocation of capital. with bitcoin even the hardest critics can't come up with new arguments.

this is a bullish sign.

few understand this.
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