Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion

[JayJuanGee]

Any Nostradamus type characters in here wanna make a prediction for harvest day next year?





 

A bit far into the future.

I hate to be a fuddy duddy, but I will make a relatively conservative BTC price prediction for that date that is somewhat in my ongoing practices to keep my expectations somewhat low....  

On that same note, in recent times, I have decided to move up upon my earlier bitcoin investment thesis, which was to anticipate and plan around a 5.5% per year price increase, and I have decided to tentatively move that BTC price appreciation expectation up to 12% per year.  This is NO small deal, and perhaps many people are going to conclude that I am too pie in the sky.. so maybe that is why I used the word, "tentatively."

Of course, historically, those of us in bitcoin for a while have experienced that some years have been better than others, but if we average out Bitcoin's overall performance, we have gotten pleasantly surprised by its ongoing outperformance of all other asset classes... at least asset classes that are used for storage of value... and perhaps no asset classes can proclaim to be nearly as liquid as bitcoin... even though some of bitcoin's liquidity is being threatened with the Bitmex situation.

I am thinking that I can conservatively estimate that from here on out I can expect an average return on my BTC of at least 12% per year (upped from 5.5%), and I am going to reframe my future cashflow plans around such revised bitcoin price appreciation thesis.

Accordingly, a conservative BTC price indicator is the 200 Weekly moving average which is currently at nearly $6,800.

Therefore, I will expressed a combined guess for September 30, 2021 that:

1) BTC's 200-Week moving average will be at least $7,616 ($6,800 + 12%) -

and

2) BTC's street price will be at least  $12,008 ($10,721 + 12%) .

I know.. seems easy to meet these expectations, but I really feel uncomfortable with underperformance or not meeting expectations, so I would prefer to meet or exceed expectations rather than NOT.

Again... even though there is some conservativism, here,... at least on a somewhat brighter note,  I have decided to move my average per year BTC price appreciation expectations up from 5.5% to 12% - which likely has some amount of bullishness contained therein, even if today we had been hearing about somewhat debby-downer Bitmex newses.

[Biodom]

he he

Now, that planB scheme is being widely criticized as unrealistic or even unscientific, the crowd will tend to become much less wild in anticipation...and then btc would outperform.
If everybody are sitting counting their imaginary funds at $100K or above by Dec 2021, it would NOT do it.

[JayJuanGee]

he he

Now, that planB scheme is being widely criticized as unrealistic or even unscientific, the crowd will tend to become much less wild in anticipation...and then btc would outperform.
If everybody are sitting counting their imaginary funds at $100K or above by Dec 2021, it would NOT do it.

You are not referring to my "conservative" prediction, I hope, and trying to suggest that I am waffling or becoming more conservative because of fear in regard to some short-term bad newses?

In spite of the short term bad newses (ie bitmex situation), my overall framework has actually become more bullish (at least I have been thinking about this for about week or two), as I attempted to outline in the post to say that I have tentatively moved my BTC price appreciation expectations from 5.5% to 12%.

By the way, I did think about you too, Biodom because increasing BTC price appreciation expectations from 5.5% to 12% .. also has significant, meaningful and material impacts upon things like retirement and various underlying presumptions of passive income and thresholds for reaching fuck you status...

Increasing BTC price appreciation expectations from 5.5% to 12% will significantly bring down the capital requirements for reaching fuck you status..... but surely, if some aggressive withdrawal abilities are expected, then maybe there would be some needs for maintaining a greater cushion, too?

So instead of having a withdrawal rate of 4% per year, the withdrawal rate could be moved up to something like 8% per year.

You did not even like my reliance on a 4% per year in order to maintain passive income status, so surely, you will be more bothered by a doubling to an 8% per year withdrawal rate... and so I will concede that even for me, it is feeling a bit aggressive.. and I am going to play with it for a bit of time to see if I can make it work... it is a kind of bitcoin exception.. that may not end up playing out, empirically.. I will play with it for a while in any upcoming hypothetical...

Good news for uie pooie the persistent party poop is that if you used to need $6 million of capital to maintain your passive income expectations (based on a 4% withdrawal rate), you could figure out ways to reduce that down to a $3 million principle based on an 8% withdrawal rate and still find it workable to achieve your income expectations..

hahahahaha

I don't expect you to go down into accepting these concepts (including a possible doubling of your withdrawal rate) without a fight.  

Oh yeah... also, in regards to 1) Plan B's stock to flow, 2) 4-year fractal and 3) s-curve exponential adoption based on metcalfe and networking principles, those ideas are still in the background and likely pushing BTC UPpity on an ongoing basis and they persist to cause bullish ideations, but I would not believe it prudent to structure base finances around them in any kind of meaning and substantial way - though good, for sure, to have a plan in case that outrageous shit were to end up happening.. and really, the models do not really cause them to be lessening in likelihood, even if there might be some short-terms feelings of set back and even if we were to get some kind of correction down to BTC's 200 week moving average (of $6,800) or something seemingly outrageous like that.

[Amel]

he he

Now, that planB scheme is being widely criticized as unrealistic or even unscientific, the crowd will tend to become much less wild in anticipation...and then btc would outperform.
If everybody are sitting counting their imaginary funds at $100K or above by Dec 2021, it would NOT do it.

You are not referring to my "conservative" prediction, I hope, and trying to suggest that I am waffling or becoming more conservative because of fear in regard to some short-term bad newses?

In spite of the short term bad newses (ie bitmex situation), my overall framework has actually become more bullish (at least I have been thinking about this for about week or two), as I attempted to outline in the post to say that I have tentatively moved my BTC price appreciation expectations from 5.5% to 12%.

By the way, I did think about you too, Biodom because increasing BTC price appreciation expectations from 5.5% to 12% .. also has significant, meaningful and material impacts upon things like retirement and various underlying presumptions of passive income and thresholds for reaching fuck you status...

Increasing BTC price appreciation expectations from 5.5% to 12% will significantly bring down the capital requirements for reaching fuck you status..... but surely, if some aggressive withdrawal abilities are expected, then maybe there would be some needs for maintaining a greater cushion, too?

So instead of having a withdrawal rate of 4% per year, the withdrawal rate could be moved up to something like 8% per year.

You did not even like my reliance on a 4% per year in order to maintain passive income status, so surely, you will be more bothered by a doubling to an 8% per year withdrawal rate... and so I will concede that even for me, it is feeling a bit aggressive.. and I am going to play with it for a bit of time to see if I can make it work... it is a kind of bitcoin exception.. that may not end up playing out, empirically.. I will play with it for a while in any upcoming hypothetical...

Good news for uie pooie the persistent party poop is that if you used to need $6 million of capital to maintain your passive income expectations (based on a 4% withdrawal rate), you could figure out ways to reduce that down to a $3 million principle based on an 8% withdrawal rate and still find it workable to achieve your income expectations..

hahahahaha

I don't expect you to go down into accepting these concepts (including a possible doubling of your withdrawal rate) without a fight.  

Oh yeah... also, in regards to 1) Plan B's stock to flow, 2) 4-year fractal and 3) s-curve exponential adoption based on metcalfe and networking principles, those ideas are still in the background and likely pushing BTC UPpity on an ongoing basis and they persist to cause bullish ideations, but I would not believe it prudent to structure base finances around them in any kind of meaning and substantial way - though good, for sure, to have a plan in case that outrageous shit were to end up happening.. and really, the models do not really cause them to be lessening in likelihood, even if there might be some short-terms feelings of set back and even if we were to get some kind of correction down to BTC's 200 week moving average (of $6,800) or something seemingly outrageous like that.

Top 3 Coins Price Prediction Bitcoin, Ethereum and Ripple: BTC upside topped at $11,600

BTC is perched on head of a powerful flexibly divider, so drawback potential is restricted. On the upside, the bulls have the space to move the cost up to $11,600, before it meets a solid opposition level. According to Sentiment, there is an enormous spike in the age expended metric on sixteenth September. Normally, a spike brings about an unexpected value development (could be either sure or negative). In any case, passing by the IOMAP, we can figure that the development will be positive.




Throughout the most recent 10 days, there has been a sharp drop in on-chain advancement action. This is generally a bearish sign. In any case, Bitcoin isn't as reliant on-chain action as Ethereum.

[fillippone]

Hyge!

Trump Says He and Flotus Tested Positive for Covid-19

Tonight, @FLOTUS and I tested positive for COVID-19. We will begin our quarantine and recovery process immediately. We will get through this TOGETHER!
 

https://twitter.com/realdonaldtrump/status/1311892190680014849?s=21

Another reason why Melania is regretting not social distancing from Donald...
How can be more presidential debate then?


Edit:
It also might be part of a strategy. Getting COVID and “surviving it” could reinforce his rhetoric about it.
Also it would strengthen his image. In Italy Silvio Berlusconi got COVID too. He told that “medics told me I got one of the highest viral count in Italy”. Yes, of course, he is well now, he’s my hero (/sarcasm).
 

[Paashaas]

Now, that planB scheme is being widely criticized as unrealistic or even unscientific

That's a little bit exaggerated, you can say the same that all models are wrong it works until they dont. Great material for observation and speculation, it works pretty well for PlanB so far atleast in this bullrun.

Trump Says He and Flotus Tested Positive for Covid-19

[Lambie Slayer]

RIP Donald. He will soon have the sniffles and be dead in 4 hours, if only the US military had stocked up on more Kleenex 

[Lambie Slayer]

Buy the POTUS sniffles dip. 

[AlcoHoDL]

COVID-19 has now become a fashion symbol, and {P,FL}OTUS just follows the trend. Should boost their popularity. LOL!

[Last of the V8s]

So Trump is ded,
Arthur is feisty
Azeri troops are hot
that boomer is in
and 2 stale blocks all in one day.
Still a few hours for ... stuff. Perhaps the price will actually do something. Nah sorry just a wild dream.

[Lambie Slayer]

Serious question. In the (1 out of 10,000 chance) event that Trump dies, will Pence be forced to nuke China for taking out our Commander in Chief?

Or perhaps Trump could have caught Corona on purpose after doing so badly in the debate. His plan would be to go into a bunker, fight a nuclear war with China, then declare a never ending state of emergency and crowning himself President for Life for the surviving population.

[LFC_Bitcoin]

Just throwing it out there that maybe Trump + wife don’t have covid & it’s a tactical play to help him win the election. Just an idea, either way he’ll be fine because he isn’t 80+ with moderate to severe pre-existing health conditions.

[JayJuanGee]

Serious question. In the (1 out of 10,000 chance) event that Trump dies, will Pence be forced to nuke China for taking out our Commander in Chief?

Odds of death would probably be closer to 1/50, maybe even quite a bit greater than that for someone who is in such age group.. maybe even other underlying health factors that might not be being disclosed, also.

On the other hand, if we assume he gets the best of treatment (not blood letting because we are in "modern times"), maybe the odds would lower to something in the 1/100 to 1/200 arena... but 1/10,000 odds seems way too low.

Regarding your second question, of course, you are not serious... should not be treating trolls as if serious, even on the face of the question it could hardly be serious.

Just throwing it out there that maybe Trump + wife don’t have covid & it’s a tactical play to help him win the election. Just an idea, either way he’ll be fine because he isn’t 80+ with moderate to severe pre-existing health conditions.

Actually, you might be correct that he does not actually have it.  It could be a sympathy play.

If he does have it, personally, I would not assume that he is as healthy as he proclaims himself to be.

[Lambie Slayer]

Just throwing it out there that maybe Trump + wife don’t have covid & it’s a tactical play to help him win the election. Just an idea, either way he’ll be fine because he isn’t 80+ with moderate to severe pre-existing health conditions.

The timing is odd. Trump did say he was taking Hydroxy so he might just be taking over the news cycle so he can claim that he recovered fast w no symptoms due to Hydroxy.

Most likely he is completely fine and doesn't die of covid unless he is hit by a bus. That would be a coronasniffle death of course.

Im just glad he did have something actually dangerous happen to him like a snake bite. 

[Saint-loup]

The monthly update:



September 2020 - so far no storm in sight, but it is getting colder for sure.

Unreal, another month already passed. Autumn has arrived, orange turned into red. Down 7.55 %, 117 pages to catch up. Does everything go down the drain? No! We are 50% up this year and I will have this month my first week off this year. Really looking forward to read you soon!

Gentlemen, I hope you are doing fine and start enjoying the season in comfort! 

Hello Dunkelheit667
Thank you for your update.
It would be interesting to have the temporary "HODL" each monthly update instead of getting it only at the end of the year...

[El duderino_]

Just throwing it out there that maybe Trump + wife don’t have covid & it’s a tactical play to help him win the election. Just an idea, either way he’ll be fine because he isn’t 80+ with moderate to severe pre-existing health conditions.

The timing is odd. Trump did say he was taking Hydroxy so he might just be taking over the news cycle so he can claim that he recovered fast w no symptoms due to Hydroxy.

Most likely he is completely fine and doesn't die of covid unless he is hit by a bus. That would be a coronasniffle death of course.

Im just glad he did have something actually dangerous happen to him like a snake bite. 

Whatever, if he has it or not.... Trump has his cleaning vaccins so NP there ...

[El duderino_]

he he

Now, that planB scheme is being widely criticized as unrealistic or even unscientific, the crowd will tend to become much less wild in anticipation...and then btc would outperform.
If everybody are sitting counting their imaginary funds at $100K or above by Dec 2021, it would NOT do it.

If you mean with everybody, the atm 1% or less involved in BTC from current population, then yes we wouldn't get their.... But I see more and more growing intrest... If the model of planB will not work out exactly as he says is probably 100% accurate. But how he sees things, compare things and write them down, thats exactly what people need to see, to understand what BTC is compared with already existing assets and just the S2F talk is something that opens eyes imo.... Of-course BTC probably will not ride the model exactly, still doesn't take away that his point of view is a nice approach and good speculation...

[Lambie Slayer]

Just throwing it out there that maybe Trump + wife don’t have covid & it’s a tactical play to help him win the election. Just an idea, either way he’ll be fine because he isn’t 80+ with moderate to severe pre-existing health conditions.

The timing is odd. Trump did say he was taking Hydroxy so he might just be taking over the news cycle so he can claim that he recovered fast w no symptoms due to Hydroxy.

Most likely he is completely fine and doesn't die of covid unless he is hit by a bus. That would be a coronasniffle death of course.

Im just glad he did have something actually dangerous happen to him like a snake bite. 

Whatever, if he has it or not.... Trump has his cleaning vaccins so NP there ...

Yes, a small price for him to pay for having sex with his assistant Hope Hicks. Thats the real story here. Melania will forgive him, bc she also was having sex with Hope.

[El duderino_]

Institutional investors around me really like the digital euro and central bank digital currencies (CBDC), but remember:

CBDC = IOU (debt, with credit risk, which can be debased).

Bitcoin = cash (bearer instrument, without credit risk, which can't be debased).

BIG difference!

https://twitter.com/100trillionUSD/status/1311922525375549441?s=20

[El duderino_]

Fundamentally the market is scared for all the wrong reasons.

MEX did NOT get hacked. No traders will lose coins.

Futures exchanges will clean up their practices.

We'll see less volatility, less scam-wicking, more spot volumes, more organic moves, more institutional money.
https://twitter.com/woonomic/status/1311941304532627456?s=20

Meanwhile the on-chain fundamentals are showing more new investors are coming in than the mania phase of the last cycle (Dec 2017), without it reflected in price. This is because the unfettered trading games on derivative platforms is holding the price down.
https://twitter.com/woonomic/status/1311941306818555904?s=20

The CFTC just announced they are turning the volume down on unregulated derivative exchanges and their dominance on price.

BTC is going to pop.
https://twitter.com/woonomic/status/1311941309007970306?s=20

^Elwar said it to