Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion

[Dabs]

"Brute force attacks against 256-bit keys will be infeasible until computers are built from something other than matter and occupy something other than space".

-Bruce Schneier

"I can state flatly that heavier than air flying machines are impossible."

— Lord Kelvin, 1895

Brute force, so checking every combination, makes some pretty easily verifiable claims.

If you build a supercomputer that occupies a space of only 1 cubic centimetre, that can brute force 1 trillion keys a second, and cover the entire earths surface with these computers, the Sun will swallow the Earth, before you have time to search the whole 256 bit key space.

I have also seen other calculations that information represented as its absolute minimum energy in the laws of physics, that there is not enough energy in the Sun to search a 256 bit key space either.

These numbers have nothing to do with the technology of the devices; they are the maximums that thermodynamics will allow. So these Laws of Thermodynamics will have to be broken first.

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[explorer]

...
Yes, the masses of money that were printed are impressive, but, paradoxically, this does not prove that this money "has" to go into bitcoin and in fact, most of it went into 5 top stocks plus Tesla instead. Markets are very complex. Like today, inflation was unleashed, but gold and btc said... "meh" collectively. I guess, because it was all pre-announced.

Yet the 'money' going IN to these stocks is not vaporizing.  Most likely it is simply transitioning to a more undervalued asset class.  Like, perhaps, crypto. 

We'll be riding the waves for however long, but I can't in any case see it dragging 10 years.  The financial implosion is well underway. Simply holding with inflation should deliver large $ gains.

[explorer]

wow long time no see, i was wondering from time to time, welcome back @explorer

  Thanks!  I had Crypto on ignore for 2 whole years...  maybe the occasional peek

[HI-TEC99]

wow long time no see, i was wondering from time to time, welcome back @explorer

  Thanks!  I had Crypto on ignore for 2 whole years...  maybe the occasional peek

What made you put it on ignore? Something like this?

[HI-TEC99]

Feel a lot to me like it's trying to lift itself above this 11350 resistance.

(something something.. walls, something on topic.. walls,something)

Observing $11373.

[explorer]

wow long time no see, i was wondering from time to time, welcome back @explorer

  Thanks!  I had Crypto on ignore for 2 whole years...  maybe the occasional peek

What made you put it on ignore? Something like this?

A contributing factor, for sure    I let it soak up way too much of my time and energy.

[philipma1957]

An interesting writeup from one of the Winkelvoss bros.
https://winklevosscapital.com/the-case-for-500k-bitcoin/

Good read.

I don’t think we can to 500k as quickly as they say. But 50k seems reasonable.

[explorer]

An interesting writeup from one of the Winkelvoss bros.
https://winklevosscapital.com/the-case-for-500k-bitcoin/

Good read.

I don’t think we can to 500k as quickly as they say. But 50k seems reasonable.

   PM, You talk like you had your eyes closed through the last few 10-20x runs...   2.5x on the previous ATH is where the serious work begins.  They are running out of places to stuff the free money.  Our time will come, and I expect 100k+ before the end of next year.  The global financial system is a powder keg.  The fuse was lit almost a year ago.  Awaiting fireworks, or heavy rains - one or the other.

[jbreher]

Just misclicked on Speculation: guys there is a whole bunch of other people out there!

Scary, isn't it?

Let's build a wall.

Only if we make them pay for it.

[explorer]

Just misclicked on Speculation: guys there is a whole bunch of other people out there!

Scary, isn't it?

Let's build a wall.

Only if we make them pay for it.

bitebits! dude!  You gotta be more careful!

[JayJuanGee]

wow long time no see, i was wondering from time to time, welcome back @explorer

  Thanks!  I had Crypto on ignore for 2 whole years...  maybe the occasional peek

What made you put it on ignore? Something like this?

A contributing factor, for sure    I let it soak up way too much of my time and energy.

It's possible that you had gotten too distracted by the shitcoin on your avatar, too...

Overallocated in shitcoin; under allocated in king daddy....  

#justsaying


 


 

[AlcoHoDL]

"I can state flatly that heavier than air flying machines are impossible."

— Lord Kelvin, 1895

No source?

Source: New Scientist — 10 Impossibilities Conquered by Science

"Brute force attacks against 256-bit keys will be infeasible until computers are built from something other than matter and occupy something other than space".

-Bruce Schneier

"I can state flatly that heavier than air flying machines are impossible."

— Lord Kelvin, 1895

Brute force, so checking every combination, makes some pretty easily verifiable claims.

If you build a supercomputer that occupies a space of only 1 cubic centimetre, that can brute force 1 trillion keys a second, and cover the entire earths surface with these computers, the Sun will swallow the Earth, before you have time to search the whole 256 bit key space.

I have also seen other calculations that information represented as its absolute minimum energy in the laws of physics, that there is not enough energy in the Sun to search a 256 bit key space either.

These numbers have nothing to do with the technology of the devices; they are the maximums that thermodynamics will allow. So these Laws of Thermodynamics will have to be broken first.

I would very much like to see the proof regarding the necessity of the Laws of Thermodynamics to be broken in order to brute force a 256-bit key. Is there any link of such proof? I'm a bit concerned about the use of energy to do the calculations.

In any case:

First...
Then came Newton,
Then came Einstein,
Then came Quantum Mechanics,
Then...

[bitserve]

Getting back to one of the recent mindrust proclamations (i.e. "no way to spend wealth these days"), travel can be a lot of fun, and some ways to both spend wealth and to have some good times with it, and of course some of the travel options have been hampered in recent times, and maybe we are wishing that travel hamperings are merely temporary?... because it would not be right and proper if the only way that some of us could really travel is to have our own private planes... and even having private planes kind of travel (and that level of wealth) could get hampered too if some of the regular joes are not able to come out of our current economic baloney with a bit of meaning in life (not saying that hookers, lambos and blow cannot bring some meaning to some of us)... but there continue to be public infrastructure matters that seem to be necessary for any kind of real comfort in enjoying some of the luxuries of any wealth system...

Oh shit.. does that mean some of us might have to share some of our wealth or even invest?  Fuck.

No way to spend wealth these days"? Even if that were somewhat true, because of coronathinggy I assume, one could always buy a fuck you all property to have all the freedom you want inside your OWN place and land and with your own rules.

Bleh, there will always be ways to spend wealth. Maybe MORE so in difficult times.

We are all worse off if an actual Armageddon situation were to strike, though.  So there are certain infrastructure failures, supply chain failures and lumpen proletariate scenarios that would not be preferred... not that I am necessarily agreeing with mindrust - but there are potential outlier scenarios in which some of us might not be able to enjoy our accumulated wealth including when previous concepts of private property that had been accumulated prior to "awokening" of the masses are overthown.

Make some sense.. except in ANY kind of situation, even if we are worse than before, we will always be better having some wealth than not having it... all other factors remaining equal. It is not that in an armageddon wealth (which can be in many kind of assets, including those more necessary for survival) is unimportant. Of course you can probably have better lifestyle in ideal conditions even if not wealthy than in shitty circumstances even if wealthy (I have always said that Kings of the past probably had worse food available than any regular person nowadays)... but being wealthy will always be better than not.

I don't think theres much to argue about that simple point. If Mindrust really wrote that statement, it is wrong.

[JayJuanGee]

Getting back to one of the recent mindrust proclamations (i.e. "no way to spend wealth these days"), travel can be a lot of fun, and some ways to both spend wealth and to have some good times with it, and of course some of the travel options have been hampered in recent times, and maybe we are wishing that travel hamperings are merely temporary?... because it would not be right and proper if the only way that some of us could really travel is to have our own private planes... and even having private planes kind of travel (and that level of wealth) could get hampered too if some of the regular joes are not able to come out of our current economic baloney with a bit of meaning in life (not saying that hookers, lambos and blow cannot bring some meaning to some of us)... but there continue to be public infrastructure matters that seem to be necessary for any kind of real comfort in enjoying some of the luxuries of any wealth system...

Oh shit.. does that mean some of us might have to share some of our wealth or even invest?  Fuck.

No way to spend wealth these days"? Even if that were somewhat true, because of coronathinggy I assume, one could always buy a fuck you all property to have all the freedom you want inside your OWN place and land and with your own rules.

Bleh, there will always be ways to spend wealth. Maybe MORE so in difficult times.

We are all worse off if an actual Armageddon situation were to strike, though.  So there are certain infrastructure failures, supply chain failures and lumpen proletariate scenarios that would not be preferred... not that I am necessarily agreeing with mindrust - but there are potential outlier scenarios in which some of us might not be able to enjoy our accumulated wealth including when previous concepts of private property that had been accumulated prior to "awokening" of the masses are overthown.

Make some sense.. except in ANY kind of situation, even if we are worse than before, we will always be better having some wealth than not having it... all other factors remaining equal.

Surely, I am not disagreeing with you in principle, and surely part of the great use cases of bitcoin remains the ability to privately secure it and to potentially plausibly deny the existence of it for practical and rights based reasons - not trying to get away with anything, but merely being able to retain wealth that you have stacked away.

There would also be some scenarios in which if someone were to have some kind of nice piece of property, let's say a reasonable 10 acres and great buildings and location, and then if that property gets taken away, then there would be some feelings of injustice with that I am sure... but we are likely on the same page that having various kinds of property and wealth does tend to give a lot more options, which probably explains some of the reasons why each of us have come to similar conclusions regarding our perceptions of values of having more options through the accumulation of king daddy.

It is not that in an armageddon wealth (which can be in many kind of assets, including those more necessary for survival) is unimportant. Of course you can probably have better lifestyle in ideal conditions even if not wealthy than in shitty circumstances even if wealthy (I have always said that Kings of the past probably had worse food available than any regular person nowadays)... but being wealthy will always be better than not.

Probably, we do not disagree, even though we might be quibbling about some various scenarios that could play out, and I think that part of the point that I had been trying to make earlier is that some of us might sometimes get so much caught up in various kinds of libertarian ideas that we forget that some of the values of having a state and community property of various sorts is that it provides a lot of value to everyone - and gives some course of recourse for the real poor.  If the real poor get too desperate, then we are all fucked.  Don't get me wrong; I can relate to being decently poor, but sometimes there can be way too much attempt to keep money from the poor or not to pay taxes from the rich or even that the rich might consider that they need little bail outs, and sure maybe we might feel that through bitcoin we had come across our riches (richness) through more honorable market means, but there still can be a lot of reasons to pay back and to pay into the system in a variety of ways in order that whatever riches that we might have been able to preserve do not get snuffed from us through some vengeance situations that might not even have been of our causing... but if we there are ways to pay into such system that allows for the ongoing building of infrastructure then we are likely to be more safe even if we have ways to hide or wealth or walls (and security guards) that we can attempt to put up between ourselves and the masses.

I don't think theres much to argue about that simple point. If Mindrust really wrote that statement, it is wrong.

I keep quoting it because it is not completely wrong - even though his employment of the statement was likely partly out of frustration and way too premature.. we might get at least one more cycle of being able to enjoy our wealth accumulation before a more true mad max situation ends up coming... and also, I will agree with you, bitserve, that it is way better to be preparing for the more likely scenarios rather than the mad max scenarios that have not happened yet... so in some sense, mindrust was just attempting to justify some of his impulsive behaviors (to the extent that we can really believe that he really did employ that level of dumb).

[xhomerx10]

Jesus!

https://www.coindesk.com/bitsonar-employee-kidnapped

 Not a good idea to telegraph your intentions.

[bitserve]

@Toxic2040 Congrats on your more than deserved Legendary status. Keep those charts coming!

[psycodad]

"I can state flatly that heavier than air flying machines are impossible."

— Lord Kelvin, 1895

No source?

Source: New Scientist — 10 Impossibilities Conquered by Science

"Brute force attacks against 256-bit keys will be infeasible until computers are built from something other than matter and occupy something other than space".

-Bruce Schneier

"I can state flatly that heavier than air flying machines are impossible."

— Lord Kelvin, 1895

Brute force, so checking every combination, makes some pretty easily verifiable claims.

If you build a supercomputer that occupies a space of only 1 cubic centimetre, that can brute force 1 trillion keys a second, and cover the entire earths surface with these computers, the Sun will swallow the Earth, before you have time to search the whole 256 bit key space.

I have also seen other calculations that information represented as its absolute minimum energy in the laws of physics, that there is not enough energy in the Sun to search a 256 bit key space either.

These numbers have nothing to do with the technology of the devices; they are the maximums that thermodynamics will allow. So these Laws of Thermodynamics will have to be broken first.

I would very much like to see the proof regarding the necessity of the Laws of Thermodynamics to be broken in order to brute force a 256-bit key. Is there any link of such proof? I'm a bit concerned about the use of energy to do the calculations.

<snip

Applied Cryptography (1996) by Bruce Schneier page 157 (I am looking at my 2nd edition here):

One of the consequences of the second law of thermodynamics is that a certain amount of energy is necessary to represent information. To record a single bit by changing the state of a system requires an amount of energy no less than kT, where T is the absolute temperature of the system and k is the Boltzman constant. (Stick with me; the physics lesson is almost over.)

Given that k = 1.38×10-16 erg/°Kelvin, and that the ambient temperature of the universe is 3.2°Kelvin, an ideal computer running at 3.2°K would consume 4.4×10-16 ergs every time it set or cleared a bit. To run a computer any colder than the cosmic background radiation would require extra energy to run a heat pump.

Now, the annual energy output of our sun is about 1.21×1041 ergs. This is enough to power about 2.7×1056 single bit changes on our ideal computer; enough state changes to put a 187-bit counter through all its values. If we built a Dyson sphere around the sun and captured all its energy for 32 years, without any loss, we could power a computer to count up to 2192. Of course, it wouldn't have the energy left over to perform any useful calculations with this counter.

But that's just one star, and a measly one at that. A typical supernova releases something like 1051 ergs. (About a hundred times as much energy would be released in the form of neutrinos, but let them go for now.) If all of this energy could be channeled into a single orgy of computation, a 219-bit counter could be cycled through all of its states.

These numbers have nothing to do with the technology of the devices; they are the maximums that thermodynamics will allow. And they strongly imply that brute-force attacks against 256-bit keys will be infeasible until computers are built from something other than matter and occupy something other than space.

He does quote this paragraph quite often, for example here: https://www.schneier.com/blog/archives/2009/09/the_doghouse_cr.html

[kurious]

Congratulations Toxic, about time..!

[El duderino_]

* BobLawblaw yawns and pisses in the general direction of ignored users

Wauw .... so I’m ignored as well...

Though it’s always wrong imo seeking somekind of attention with showing a list from the peeps someone is ignoring.

Feels like you’re hoping someone would add some text and ask some questions, but bob why? They are not bad or are they? Everything alright...??

I never use the ignore and if I would, then it’s just my thing and I wouldn’t be showing of for I don’t know or understand whatever the reason is....

I did very very much respected you as a WO member from the start .... but atm moment you’re going over the top for some reasons...

Still remember OG-long term-BTC’ers aren’t your enemy, you should embrace those with the same intrest and perspective...

Especially the oldtimers who knows BTC from low prices and are here for the long run and ethical reasons.

Then again, live your life and do how you thinks it’s alright....

Cheers anyway

[yefi]

"I can state flatly that heavier than air flying machines are impossible."

— Lord Kelvin, 1895

No source?

Source: New Scientist — 10 Impossibilities Conquered by Science

Problem is that's not a source. There are plenty of famous misquotes that get bandied around, yet when we look for the actual origin, we're left empty-handed, e.g. "640k ought to be enough for anyone", "let them eat cake" etc.