Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion

[Karartma1]

Congratulations Toxic, about time..!

I second this! Well deserved! Keep the charts coming but don't forget the trains, rockets, spartans and such!
We need all this.

* BobLawblaw yawns and pisses in the general direction of ignored users

snip

Mic, it shall pass. Don't get upset 

[1679596280]

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[1679596280]

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[1679596280]

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[El duderino_]

Not upset.... people just amaze me from time to time....

Didn’t expect such from a fellow HODLer 

[yefi]

Applied Cryptography (1996) by Bruce Schneier page 157 (I am looking at my 2nd edition here):

One of the consequences of the second law of thermodynamics is that a certain amount of energy is necessary to represent information. To record a single bit by changing the state of a system requires an amount of energy no less than kT, where T is the absolute temperature of the system and k is the Boltzman constant. (Stick with me; the physics lesson is almost over.)

Given that k = 1.38×10-16 erg/°Kelvin, and that the ambient temperature of the universe is 3.2°Kelvin, an ideal computer running at 3.2°K would consume 4.4×10-16 ergs every time it set or cleared a bit. To run a computer any colder than the cosmic background radiation would require extra energy to run a heat pump.

Now, the annual energy output of our sun is about 1.21×1041 ergs. This is enough to power about 2.7×1056 single bit changes on our ideal computer; enough state changes to put a 187-bit counter through all its values. If we built a Dyson sphere around the sun and captured all its energy for 32 years, without any loss, we could power a computer to count up to 2192. Of course, it wouldn't have the energy left over to perform any useful calculations with this counter.

But that's just one star, and a measly one at that. A typical supernova releases something like 1051 ergs. (About a hundred times as much energy would be released in the form of neutrinos, but let them go for now.) If all of this energy could be channeled into a single orgy of computation, a 219-bit counter could be cycled through all of its states.

These numbers have nothing to do with the technology of the devices; they are the maximums that thermodynamics will allow. And they strongly imply that brute-force attacks against 256-bit keys will be infeasible until computers are built from something other than matter and occupy something other than space.

He does quote this paragraph quite often, for example here: https://www.schneier.com/blog/archives/2009/09/the_doghouse_cr.html

He's a little out on temperature, it's ~2.72 K. It's also worth noting that while Bitcoin has 256-bit long private keys, the security offered is only 128 bits where the public key is revealed or 160 bits where it is not.

That's still unbreakable for conventional computers of course. For perspective, a thermodynamically ideal computer in the nethermost region of space consuming the entire electricity output of the United States would take nearly two million years on average to crack a 160-bit secured UTXO. (2^160/(1.5e19/(2.725*1.380649e-23))/2

[fillippone]

EDIT: 63 WO pages to catch up... What did I miss?

Just to let you know I just finished filling the gap.
No WO post has been left behind.

[El duderino_]

EDIT: 63 WO pages to catch up... What did I miss?

Just to let you know I just finished filling the gap.
No WO post has been left behind.

Childplay.....

[Dabs]

I would very much like to see the proof regarding the necessity of the Laws of Thermodynamics to be broken in order to brute force a 256-bit key. Is there any link of such proof? I'm a bit concerned about the use of energy to do the calculations.

So yeah, something major will have to be broken, or some break-through in computing. The algo will get broken or aliens have this computer that can crack it.

Then of course, they have to be specifically targeting your one address. Is it a legacy address, is it segwit wrapped or native segwit, has it been spent from ... the number to brute force through all that is so astronomically large that even with any technology available today it would take millions of years.

Anything above a couple of decades is practically impossible. Anything that will take longer than a couple of years and it's much more easier to do the $5 wrench attack.

If they want to be covert about it, they would bug everything you have, install cameras everywhere (or access them), invade everything you do. If you created something like a darknet market called The Silk Road, then you are one such target worth some attention. Unless you are James Bond or Ethan Hunt or Jason Bourne, they will find you.

But then, if you're someone like any one of us here, who are complete nobodies in the grand scale of things, and everyone here had a boating accident or something, or we already got rekt ... what's the point, we are worthless to even talk about, no one is going after your paper wallets or cold storage.

If you have any attachments at all, they can use that too. You may not be willing to die for your bitcoins, but will you be willing to let someone else you love suffer for it?


For perspective:

According to estimates, in the middle of 2019 there were 46.8 million people worldwide whose assets exceeded one million USD, of which nearly 40% lived in the United States. The total net worth of all millionaires stood at US$158,261 billion.

Much easier to extort, kidnap, threaten, steal, mug, whatever ... one of them for the money.


On a similar topic, passwords randomly generated longer than 16 or 20 characters will take longer than your lifetime to crack through conventional methods. Much easier to wait for you right before you go inside your bank or ATM machine.

If you are protecting something behind 12 or 24 words ... I'm sure there is math there to show you that no one is going to guess it unless they are very lucky, got struck by lightning every day, or already won the mega millions super powerball lottery equivalent a few times over.

if an attacker knows that you are using a seven-word Diceware passphrase, and they pick seven random words from the Diceware word list to guess, there is a one in 1,719,070,799,748,422,591,028,658,176 chance that they’ll pick your passphrase each try.

At one trillion guesses per second — per Edward Snowden’s January 2013 warning — it would take an average of 27 million years to guess this passphrase.

[fillippone]

I would very much like to see the proof regarding the necessity of the Laws of Thermodynamics to be broken in order to brute force a 256-bit key. Is there any link of such proof? I'm a bit concerned about the use of energy to do the calculations.

<...>

I used that image on a thread of mine:
There are 2^256 private keys out there: how big is that number?
The tread explain how it is diffcult to brute force a number so big.

I would very much like to see the proof regarding the necessity of the Laws of Thermodynamics to be broken in order to brute force a 256-bit key. Is there any link of such proof? I'm a bit concerned about the use of energy to do the calculations.

No need to brute force: it is out there on keys.lol

[philipma1957]

As for cracking the 256 bit encoding it would be child's play if this was the matrix and we were being tricked into thinking 256 bit encoding was real.

It would also be easy to crack if  magic was real. Both are out of the box problem solves.

But given  the rules that we have it is not going to happen any time soon as both the matrix and Harry Potter are considered to be simple fiction.

[Toxic2040]

As for cracking the 256 bit encoding it would be child's play if this was the matrix and we were being tricked into thinking 256 bit encoding was real.

It would also be easy to crack if  magic was real. Both are out of the box problem solves.

But given  the rules that we have it is not going to happen any time soon as both the matrix and Harry Potter are considered to be simple fiction.

*gasp



---------

the early morning toe report

yep..its tingling..  #dyor

lancers at a walk..form a line!
4h


starling sings at sunrise
D

#stronghands

[BobLawblaw]

Observing a very nice and steady upward recovery, bouncing off ~$11.2k USD/BTC yesterday.

This one looks healthy and organic.

HODL strong, brothers.

[Dabs]

... both the matrix and Harry Potter are considered to be simple fiction.

If the matrix were real (having watched all 3 movies and 9 animatrix cartoon/anime), with Neo and Trinity both excellent hackers within the system, the technology there already existed for 128 bits to 256 bits of symmetric classical encryption. Using the technology within that matrix, 256 bits is still uncrackable. Trinity did use nmap ...

As for magic, it depends on the kind of magic. Still much easier to turn lead into gold than it is to come up with the private key. The trick would be to have some sort of all seeing eye, or a crystal ball, or something used to spy on you the whole time. Mind reading is also one such magic trick as would be telling the future.

Much easier to predict lotto results and do that (movie: paycheck).

It really depends on the kind of magic. Genie from Aladdin would also just make you a super rich prince and imprison all your enemies in the cave of wonders for 10k years.

I have not seen anything in any of the 7 Harry Potter movies (and the more recent spin off movies) to indicate they can crack 256 bit keys. More likely they protect their wealth through those troll creatures in the underground bank thing.

[Toxic2040]

@Toxic2040 Congrats on your more than deserved Legendary status. Keep those charts coming!

Congratulations Toxic, about time..!

ty gentlemen 

People like you make this place feel like home. I really appreciate that.

That pretty much goes for the rest of you knuckleheads..thank you.

Its been a hell of a ride so far and its only going to get better imho.

-----
for the rest of you a-holes out there on the fence..

Get in, stack sats, strap down and hang the fuck on is about the best advice I can give you besides do your own research.

[LFC_Bitcoin]

Observing a very nice and steady upward recovery, bouncing off ~$11.2k USD/BTC yesterday.

This one looks healthy and organic.

HODL strong, brothers.

I’m really keen to see where the next break upwards takes us. I have a feeling we’ll see $13,000 before the end of September but please, nobody trade based on that. It’s just a gut feeling.

[Indymoney]

Observing a very nice and steady upward recovery, bouncing off ~$11.2k USD/BTC yesterday.

This one looks healthy and organic.

HODL strong, brothers.

I’m really keen to see where the next break upwards takes us. I have a feeling we’ll see $13,000 before the end of September but please, nobody trade based on that. It’s just a gut feeling.

You are around $13K and I am also feeling its going around $125K to $13K because now he is around $11K for some good time so can go some above in coming days.

[Toxic2040]

i really am a degen...ffs..

i feel the need to speculate if LFC is on Bobbies ignore list or not

[vapourminer]

RE: cracking a 256 bit key

obviously much simpler to just spy on the person creating the key/seeds.

think of how many microphones and cameras there are in the various devices in your house. then windows that someone can see into (drones have fantastic cameras btw).

so. room with all windows shades drawn (better: a closet with no windows/connection to exterior walls). all laptops/cellphones/webcams/smart speakers/smart TVs/voice remotes etc off and batteries/ethernet cables/power cords removed, all wifi disconnected at the sources (you might be amazed how many devices have wifi that you may not know about).. thats ALL of them in the house, not just the room youre in. use casino dice to generate the seed words. all in a sealed room. then a strong passphrase. burn all your work after verifying it all works.

engrave it on your favorite fire/waterproof medium. include some (or all) non magnet mediums for any metal detectors that may be employed to find stuff like that. or sprinkle hundreds of nuts and bolts in walls and around your property as as diversions/time wasters. etc.

now none of that involves cracking that 256 bit key but this is just stuff ive thought of when generating seeds. im sure there are many better ways.

so a bit off the topic but hey just tossing ideas out.

and yes paranoia is my middle name.. at least when it comes to keys/seeds.

[Dabs]

so. room with all windows shades drawn (better: a closet with no windows/connection to exterior walls). all laptops/cellphones/webcams/smart speakers/smart TVs/voice remotes etc off and batteries/ethernet cables/power cords removed, all wifi disconnected at the sources (you might be amazed how many devices have wifi that you may not know about).. thats ALL of them in the house, not just the room youre in. use casino dice to generate the seed words. all in a sealed room. then a strong passphrase. burn all your work after verifying it all works.

I would add some white noise. Can use any old cell phone, download a white noise app, plug in some speakers, turn on airplane mode, let it run, make some noise, so any bugs listening will hear the noise.

I think much easier to go look around your room, around your house, take a walk or stroll and see how to get in from the outside.

I like this particular website:
https://iancoleman.io/bip39/

You can download it and run it offline.

[DeathAngel]

Wonder, will we see a weekend pump or dump this weekend? It feels like we’re set to move in either direction, perhaps violently.

[philipma1957]

RE: cracking a 256 bit key

obviously much simpler to just spy on the person creating the key/seeds.

think of how many microphones and cameras there are in the various devices in your house. then windows that someone can see into (drones have fantastic cameras btw).

so. room with all windows shades drawn (better: a closet with no windows/connection to exterior walls). all laptops/cellphones/webcams/smart speakers/smart TVs/voice remotes etc off and batteries/ethernet cables/power cords removed, all wifi disconnected at the sources (you might be amazed how many devices have wifi that you may not know about).. thats ALL of them in the house, not just the room youre in. use casino dice to generate the seed words. all in a sealed room. then a strong passphrase. burn all your work after verifying it all works.

engrave it on your favorite fire/waterproof medium. include some (or all) non magnet mediums for any metal detectors that may be employed to find stuff like that. or sprinkle hundreds of nuts and bolts in walls and around your property as as diversions/time wasters. etc.

now none of that involves cracking that 256 bit key but this is just stuff ive thought of when generating seeds. im sure there are many better ways.

so a bit off the topic but hey just tossing ideas out.

and yes paranoia is my middle name.. at least when it comes to keys/seeds.

Okay My Mac mini's don't have a camera. So seed spying is greatly reduced.
 Seeds were generated one time. Photoed with an off line camera . printed with an off line printer.

copies made with an off line copier.  

I am thinking of making some metal washer style seed copies.

At deathangel sideways is still likely but a leading indicator of downward price pressures is right here.

https://diff.cryptothis.com/
 ...

Latest Block:   645708  (6 minutes ago)

Current Pace:   95.9501%  (589 / 613.86 expected, 24.86 behind)

Previous Difficulty:   16947802333946.61                            
Current Difficulty:   17557993035167.3                            
Next Difficulty:   between 16887130005840 and 17216721760200
Next Difficulty Change:   between -3.8208% and -1.9437%
Previous Retarget:   last Monday at 4:19 AM  (+3.6004%)
Next Retarget (earliest):   September 7, 2020 at 11:24 AM  (in 10d 0h 45m 58s)
Next Retarget (latest):   September 7, 2020 at 6:30 PM  (in 10d 7h 52m 18s)
Projected Epoch Length:   between 14d 7h 4m 34s and 14d 14h 10m 54s ...

The diff drop will be 4% in 10 days that does drag  price in a downward direction.

If you go back in time to v8's flooding post the  future diff has been dropping for more than 11 days.

this was august 17  we were 69 blocks ahead of pace we closed at 66 blocks ahead of pace
https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=178336.msg55015487#msg55015487

so we had a very slight diff down turn from august 17 to  august 24th

we now have a stronger diff downturn from august 24th to august 28th.  So the price down turn was led by the diff downturn for these 10 days.

It does happen that diff lead price less often then price lead diff. but the diff turndown came first in this case.

Ie I look at diff futures  not current diff.

the stretch of august 17 to august 24 we did about 4-6 blocks under pace and price followed downwards.

august 24 to august 28  we are  24 block under pace and the downward pricing  or sideways pricing continues.

I look for a break out in September  as price has more influence then diff. (at least in my studies of the two.)

I see a lot of investing cap shifting to coins come September. That will cause a strong price rise.

[AlcoHoDL]

"I can state flatly that heavier than air flying machines are impossible."

— Lord Kelvin, 1895

No source?

Source: New Scientist — 10 Impossibilities Conquered by Science

"Brute force attacks against 256-bit keys will be infeasible until computers are built from something other than matter and occupy something other than space".

-Bruce Schneier

"I can state flatly that heavier than air flying machines are impossible."

— Lord Kelvin, 1895

Brute force, so checking every combination, makes some pretty easily verifiable claims.

If you build a supercomputer that occupies a space of only 1 cubic centimetre, that can brute force 1 trillion keys a second, and cover the entire earths surface with these computers, the Sun will swallow the Earth, before you have time to search the whole 256 bit key space.

I have also seen other calculations that information represented as its absolute minimum energy in the laws of physics, that there is not enough energy in the Sun to search a 256 bit key space either.

These numbers have nothing to do with the technology of the devices; they are the maximums that thermodynamics will allow. So these Laws of Thermodynamics will have to be broken first.

I would very much like to see the proof regarding the necessity of the Laws of Thermodynamics to be broken in order to brute force a 256-bit key. Is there any link of such proof? I'm a bit concerned about the use of energy to do the calculations.

<snip

Applied Cryptography (1996) by Bruce Schneier page 157 (I am looking at my 2nd edition here):

One of the consequences of the second law of thermodynamics is that a certain amount of energy is necessary to represent information. To record a single bit by changing the state of a system requires an amount of energy no less than kT, where T is the absolute temperature of the system and k is the Boltzman constant. (Stick with me; the physics lesson is almost over.)

Given that k = 1.38×10-16 erg/°Kelvin, and that the ambient temperature of the universe is 3.2°Kelvin, an ideal computer running at 3.2°K would consume 4.4×10-16 ergs every time it set or cleared a bit. To run a computer any colder than the cosmic background radiation would require extra energy to run a heat pump.

Now, the annual energy output of our sun is about 1.21×1041 ergs. This is enough to power about 2.7×1056 single bit changes on our ideal computer; enough state changes to put a 187-bit counter through all its values. If we built a Dyson sphere around the sun and captured all its energy for 32 years, without any loss, we could power a computer to count up to 2192. Of course, it wouldn't have the energy left over to perform any useful calculations with this counter.

But that's just one star, and a measly one at that. A typical supernova releases something like 1051 ergs. (About a hundred times as much energy would be released in the form of neutrinos, but let them go for now.) If all of this energy could be channeled into a single orgy of computation, a 219-bit counter could be cycled through all of its states.

These numbers have nothing to do with the technology of the devices; they are the maximums that thermodynamics will allow. And they strongly imply that brute-force attacks against 256-bit keys will be infeasible until computers are built from something other than matter and occupy something other than space.

He does quote this paragraph quite often, for example here: https://www.schneier.com/blog/archives/2009/09/the_doghouse_cr.html

Many thanks for this. Very interesting and reassuring for our cryptography. The problem comes when you remove the words "brute force", in which case the situation is far from reassuring. In any case, and no matter how certain we may think we are about anything, we must keep an open mind about what may be possible in the future.